Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Made a mistake in the 5.25. Overstaked the night before and only noticed Russian War in the morning. Should've gone level stakes win each on the 4. Slow pace didn't suit both Sire Collonges and Pateese. Still with 20+ on Betfair, the bet overall returned a slight profit :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 2.30 Radium 0.75pt EW - 14/1 Lads SJ Take the place at Betfair to be insured for 3 places. Very interesting line through the Irish form and Western Charmer. Quito De La Roque beat him by 10L off level weights, when they met. The Jewson 7th Mr Cracker beat him by 4L conceding 5lbs. If you put a line through this, then my selection, who readily outclassed Mr Cracker in the Jewson, shouldn't be 3 times the price of the Colm Murphy horse. Considering how impressive Wishfull Thinking was yesterday and Mr Cracker winning in Ireland, I think the Jewson form might actually turn out to be quite strong. I rate NoblePrince and Loosen My Load as serious horses. At the same time I'm not so sure the RSA was won by a good horse. They all bunched up at the finish and I think the strength of the race is questionable. Especially with the two Mullins stablemates looking like winners and departing on the final circuit. There's also interesting form line through Cape Tribulation. Radium beat him at Market Rasen by a head. He made a mistake at the last though, could've beaten him a lot easier. Traveled all over him in the final 3f. Wayward Prince also has the beating of Cape Tribulation. He was more convinving beating him by 2L giving away 3lbs, but like I said Radium made a mistake and was worth a lot more than the margin suggests. Traveled very well at the festival, but just couldn't go with the front three when they quickened. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but at the prices on offer and Barry Geraghty on Master Of The Hall, I think Radium is the value bet in the race. Shouldn't be 3 or 4 times the price of Wayward Prince and Quito De La Roque. Trip and flat track should suit as well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 3.40 Mon Parrain 3pt win - 5/1 (already advised) Always Waining 1pt EW - 16/1 (already advised) Always Waining was 4th in this race in 2009 off 140. Gave me a great run for the money at 40/1. Won it last year off 128 and I still don't know how I didn't back him. Races off 133 this time around and I expect another bold bid. Trainer usually has a quiet winter and starts banging the winners when the weather improves. The selection loves spring ground and these fences really wake him up. Ran a good prep race lto finishing 4th over hurdles. Hard to win a Topham twice in a row, but he bolted up last year and runs off only 5lbs higher. I think this 16/1 on offer is way too big. Mon Parrain could end up a very well backed fav today. I think Nicholls has a very well handicapped horse and will try to win a Topham and at Sandown before he aims him at the Gold Cup next year. I was impressed with the way he jumped at Sandown and reports from France are that he's always been natural. Has also been schooled over national fences and apparently jumped them with ease. Trainer won the race with 5yo Gwanako few years ago. 5pts overall staked on the race and probably no savers. Frankie Frigg won over C&D in November, but he needs soft ground and Always Waining didn't run to form that day. On spring ground I think the Bowen horse is a different animal and will reverse form. Scotsirish looks a big price, but he has 12L to find on only 6lbs better terms.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 4.50 Carpincho 0.75pt EW - 25/1 Usually won't back this type of horse. Has been given a harsh handicap mark winning by 50L at Sedgefield and winning easily at Folkestone. Both runs beating absolutely nothing, but he is a decent horse and with so many in the race potentially over the top, he could run well at a price. Ran in a pretty hot race lto behind the Albert Bartlett 3rd Court In Motion and the impressive Back In Focus. I also really like his bumper form winning 2 and then finishing 3rd in a Grade 2 behind Al Ferof only beaten 6L. Won't be surprised if he improves for fast pace and handicap company. With potentially many of these with a hard season running below form, I think he will be involved.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Fontwell 5.05 Molanna View 1pt EW - 6/1 Ok form over hurdles and needs better ground. Going well lto when falling and was well supported too. By Old Vic and should make a fine chaser. This race is not strong at all and with talented claimer taking off 7bs, I think my selection could run well with a clear round. Emma Lavelle is in decent form and I'll give her yardstick a chance to redeem himself, because he jumped fine before the departure lto. Should be competitive off this mark with the jockey allowance and on what he has achieved over hurdles.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 5.25 Ceol Rua 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Improving all the time and won with a bit in hand lto. Gave the 2nd 7lbs and beat her convinsingly. Whatwillwecallher won her next 2 races by 15L and 18L, so form holds up well. The Willie Mullins mare will love the ground today. Not easy to weigh up form in a bumper, but this race has been the traget for some time and she comes here fresh and ready to run a big race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 3.40 Scotsirish 1pt EW - 20/1 (5 places) With the risk of overstaking in the race, I just can't leave this fella out. Will carry lesser weight than last year and the race has been his target all season. Brilliant jumper and with proven course form he should be bang there all the way. Would probably be able to lay my stake at a short price few fences before the finish, because he will travel and jump.

[gregprowt]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 you da man :-) :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[BlackSamBellamy]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Just saw you backed Always Waining and Scotsirish. Well done big fella.

[Quackers]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Great Stuff Mileni. To put up the first 3 in such a race is quite something.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 I was a one click of the mouse away to back the tricast :puke But happy nevertheless. Thanks guys :nana

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Fontwell 5.05 Molanna View 1pt EW - 6/1 Ok form over hurdles and needs better ground. Going well lto when falling and was well supported too. By Old Vic and should make a fine chaser. This race is not strong at all and with talented claimer taking off 7bs, I think my selection could run well with a clear round. Emma Lavelle is in decent form and I'll give her yardstick a chance to redeem himself, because he jumped fine before the departure lto. Should be competitive off this mark with the jockey allowance and on what he has achieved over hurdles.

Ugh.. how did he manage not to be placed? :unsure

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Grand National The Midnight Club 1.5pt EW - 25/1 Skippers Brig 0.75pt EW - 40/1 (5 places) Bluesea Cracker 1.25pt EW - 25/1 (5 places) Backstage 2pt win - 13/1 Ballabriggs 2pt win - 33/1 + lay 1pt at 16/1 What A Friend 0.75pt win - 50/1 + layed 0.75pt at 14/1 Becauseicouldntsee 0.5pt win - 25/1 Arbor Supreme 0.5pt win - 20/1 New bets in bold. Additional 0.25pt win on Arbor Supreme to save the stake. Becauseicouldntsee stays well and Davy Russell can have him running a big race for a long way, so he is a saver material too. The final "real" bet is Bluesea Cracker, who ran a great race behind Junior and Midnight Chase at Cheltenham in November and that was probably the hottest race this season with the front two having at least stone in hand of the handicapper. Ballabriggs remains a lay potential at shorter price in running, but I'll leave the 1pt running. Silver By Nature shouldn't handle ground and Oscar Time shouldn't stay. They are touted as potential dangers, but I don't think they should be. 11pts staked in the race and if I don't get the winner I'm useless.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Internet connection playing up. Will post reasoning later if I can. Aintree 1.45 Cue Card 2pt win - 10/3 b365 Aintree 3.25 Great Endeavour 2pt win - 4/1 Fred Aintree 5.35 Persian Snow 1pt EW - 8/1 Lads Bangor 3.05 Tamadot 1.5pt EW - 5/1 gen

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Bangor 3.05 Tamadot 1.5pt EW - 5/1 gen Good horse, who was injured for 2 yeras and came back at Ffos Las, but didn't run his race and had to be pulled up. Big improvement lto when I backed. Ran well for a long way, but met a Nicholls improver, who had too much in hand and had to settle for 2nd. The horse in 3rd he gave more than a stone has won twice since. Considering this fella was a promising novice rated in the 130s, I think he can be very comptitive off 119 here. Given 49 days to recuperate I expect him to run very well today. Big chance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 1.45 Cue Card 2pt win - 10/3 I think flatter track and 2m4f will suit Cue Card today. Also, Colin might have him fitter this time, because at Cheltenham he ran as if he blew up. Could just be another Dunguib, but I rate him and I think he will be hard to beat today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 3.25 Great Endeavour 2pt win - 4/1 Fred Will give anything to have Danny Cook back on board. Just can't trust Timmy nowadays. He can't give the horse worse ride than he did at Cheltenham. Hopefully won't surrender 20L at the start and won't force horse to the front. Just nice and easy, Timmy! Settle him and get him jumping. He'll do the rest for you. Very well handicapped horse, who should beat Bensalem and Reve De Sivola on these terms. Tarablaze is a danger, because he is an improver, but I worry about him jumping at speed with no Tom O'Brien on board. Dickie tried to kill him at Newbury. If he jumps, he can definitely win, but I won't be saving.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 5.35 Persian Snow 1pt EW - 8/1 Looked a top prospect when making a successful start at Ascot in October. Wasn't suited by slow pace when only 3rd lto. Remains of interest given debut promise and there was a rumour he will be going for the Cheltenham champion bumper, but yard decided to come here instead. Apparently he and Cheltenian both had a big chance to win at the festival. If that's true and this fella is of similar class, then he's definitely worth a bet today in a worse race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Aintree 5.00 Alazan 1pt EW - 6/1 b365 Lads Very well supported this morning and the race he won lto works out well. Son Of Flicka has been running very well since. This fella is a very good flat horse and loves good ground. Good claimer offsets 5lbs and I can see him going really close in a race, where many have had a hard season. Plan A shouldn't be good enough on Cheltenham evidence. Via Galilei has had rise in weights. Nearby condedes weight all around. Wish I backed the 8/1 last night, but 6/1 still a good price. I think this is very well handicapped horse.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Why did I waste 10pts on others? Should have just staked it on Balla. He was my first fancy and I started nibbling all kinds of prices around 40 38 36 34 in October :) Broke my duck in this race finally :nana

[mowgli77]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Why did I waste 10pts on others? Shoul'd have just staked it on Balla. He was my first fancy and I started nibbling all kinds of prices around 40 38 36 34 in October :) Broke my duck in this race finally :nana

Well done mate, that was fantastic to watch, on at 20's, 16's and 14's. What a ride from the front, best National I've seen in years.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Well done mate' date=' that was fantastic to watch, on at 20's, 16's and 14's. What a ride from the front, best National I've seen in years.[/quote'] You're 4 backs 4 wins on him like me, right? :D

[mowgli77]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

You're 4 backs 4 wins on him like me' date=' right? :D[/quote'] 3 from 3, two ew and one straight win. :okAll bet365 so had no option to lay off. I thought the single was 16-1 but it was 14's, placed it ages ago. Expected it to go off about 10-1 today but stable form saw it drift to 20's and back to 14's again.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Grand National 2012 The Midnight Club 1pt win - 33/1 Bet365 Amazingly quite a lot of mony have been traded on Betfair at prices between 16s and 10s already, but I'm not surprised at all. The horse was mighty unlucky yesterday being brought to a stop 3 from home and losing at least 15L in the process. Wouldn't have won, but would've been fighting out 3rd with Don't Push It imo. Made a few mistakes and started jumping big and slow, but he's still inexperienced and will learn from it. Trainer had Hedgehunter few years ago, who fell the year before and then won the race 12 months after. I think 33/1 at Bet365 is a massive price. He will be close to a favorite again next year and this time with a lot more experience and off similar mark, could go all the way.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Hexham 3.30 Persian Prince 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Only one win over fences so far, but placed several times and 3 from 5 in pointers. Bolted up in May last year over this distance and is a horse, who is still lightly raced for 11yo. Came back after 8 month break to finish 2nd at Musselburgh behind his stablemate Tyrone House, who was well fancied that day. Rare poor round of jumping last month, but the flat 18f wasn't really his test. Return to more galloping track and 2m4f suits and is still on a good mark. Denis O'Regan takes the ride and I think John Wade will be trying with this fella today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Plumpton 3.20 Candlefort Lady 1pt EW - 7/1 Interesting debutant for Jim Best, who has his first run over hurdles for the yard today. Hasn't done anything so far in his career, but is by a good sire and might offer more for his new stable. Eyecatching booking in Paddy Brennan and well backed this morning. Nothing in the race at a price and form of the two market leaders is overrated for me. Looks nailed on to be in the frame and hopefully the field remains intact. I would take the 2.12 and 2.14 available on Betfair to be insured of 3 places.

[Aykay1]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Milen, Pipe has confirmed that Grand Crus is likely to go chasing next year. Your 50/1 for the Gold Cup is still available with Stan James. A more likely option (I guess) is the RSA - he is 10/1 :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 That's just how bookies price up their markets, but in reality Pipe is the type of trainer that won't hesitate to go straight for the Gold Cup. Most of the 80 and 85 matched on Betfair are mine and should be an easy trade when he wins his novice :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Cheltenham 3.20 Secret Dancer 0.75pt EW - 10/1 WH Fancied him in the Coral Cup, but had no chance in the County. Just lacks the pace over 2m and ran ok in the 2009 County when staying on 7th. Further 4f will suit and handicapper has eased him 2 lbs. On his flat form, he is probably well handicapped over hurdles, but just doesn't take much racing. Have few niggling doubts about the market leaders here and most rivals have beeh raised in the handicap after recent wins in weakish races, so I think this fella could run well and be thereabouts with conditions to suit. Hasn't had a hard season and the excellent Tom O'Brien takes the ride.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Spring Cup Saint Pierre 1pt win - 9/1 WH Unexposed horse, who should have a lot more to offer and is probably quite well handicapped. Plenty of these can't win and shouldn't win and I think when the declarations are made and punters realize this, he'll be a lot shorter. Just hope he gets a good draw, but will have a good chance regardless. I will probably have 3 or 4 running for me, but the rest can wait for now.