Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4

[mileni4uk]

:dude

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 16 runners go to post in the Gold Cup. Is any bookie doing 4 places?

[Blair Boy]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4

16 runners go to post in the Gold Cup. Is any bookie doing 4 places?

Looks like most are only doing 3

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4

16 runners go to post in the Gold Cup. Is any bookie doing 4 places?

Check VCbet at 11 am tomorrow mate, for their happy hour. Today they went 5 places in the 1st, 2nd, 5th and 6th races, and offered enhanced odds on VPU and KB in the 3rd and 4th. Tomorrow they will either offer enhanced odds most likely on Kauto Star or go 4 places. But will only be between 11am and 12. :ok

[TOP CAT]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 I have already given all my reasons for this tip and even today round the lunch taple on ch-4 Mr Martin pipe was asked by Alaster drowne ''who do you want to see the most ? he said with a little smile MADISON DU BERLIAS, he is the new kid on the block but he has a massive danger in AIR FORCE ONE, if both get beat then let it be the awsome KAUTO STAR, (FOR OLD TIMES SAKE) MADISON DU BERLIAS AIR FORCE ONE KAUTO STAR to take 3rd. MADISON is your gold cup winner.

[boro_tom]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 The average winner of the gold cup each year is 8year old, 11s 10lb, won last time out. they are only two horses that fit this and these are, Neptune Colonges - 5/1, Madison du berlais - 9/1. Also these have both ran between 2-5 runs this season which is exactly the same as the past 11 winners. Albertas run E/W is also a good bet at 14/1 if finished first last time out, this horse would have fit every trend possible for this race.

[Blair Boy]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 3.20 Denman Last years winner returns to defend his title after a dissopointing return following his heart trouble, Denman is a horse who through out his racing career has a total of 13 wins and only 2nds which is very empresive and makes him hard to ignore even though he was beaten on his return I find it hard to Judge him fully after only one run of which he came 2nd. My first thoughts were Kauto Star could shine again here and regain the Gold Cup after shinning in the King George after a bad spell to start with I still thing Kauto Star has a great chance of winning but at the current odds on Denman he's worth a small bet. Denman 7.00 Betfair 3.20 Kauto Star Even though Ive took Denman I think Kauto has every chance and is available at odds where I can make a profit and cover my stake on Denman. Kauto Star is aiming to go against the stats and regain the Gold Cup tomorrow after Denman proved to much for him, even If Denman does not show the form of his race last year in tomorrows race Kauto still has no easy task ahead of him with the likes of Neptune Collonges, Madison De Berlais looking to be of a threat. Kauto Star 9/4 Ladbrokes

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 1.30 Walkon, 5/1 Ultra competitive but Alan Kings horse has won its last two race against decent fields, won at Cheltenham on softish ground, its versatile and clearly handles the course, (something its market rivals may struggle with?/unproven) King has a decent record in the race also.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Mourad - E/W. 18/1 Bet365 Ive got him @ 25 and 37 but they are win only bets. Realistically, he along with many horses in this field should be considered "a contender". The ground should be absolutely ideal for him, as he has been looking for better ground than his 2 hurdles runs in Ireland on "soft". Won on his debut after appealing the inital defeat to Jumbo Rio, (also finishing well ahead of Ebadiyan). The 3 horses 3 re-opposed LTO, with Jumbo Rio winning, Ebadiyan 2nd and Mourad 3rd, but the selection was the only one of the 3 who didnt really seem comfortable with the ground, and was taken to the front too early by Ruby Walsh. Will very much be a waiting game but as long as Ruby is on the premises with him coming up to the last fence, then I believe he has the flat speed to see off these rivals. Stable has been in decent form this week and this horse can go and add to the success for the stable and jockey. How Ebadiyan and Jumbo Rio are so far ahead of him in the betting, I don't have a clue to be honest. 2:05 VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE Raise Your Heart - E/W 12/1 Bet365 (14's available in places) Tough one to call this one, as its a very very compeititve heat. Im happy to take the chance with another Irish raider here. Comes here off the back of a break (Oct '08), where he scored against Made In Taipan who ran a cracker to finish 4th in the Arkle. Has decent form on similar ground around about this time last year with 3rd's behind I Hear A Symphony and Northern Alliance, the latter running a very pleasing run today finishing 4th. A very tentative selection but looks very well handicapped considering how easily he actually won LTO (1l didnt tell the whole story). Worth an e/w punt imo with Aachen being the likeliest danger. 2:40 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE The Midnight Club E/W 20/1 Bet365 (I believe 25's are available in places??) For those who have seen any of my main tips this week, this selection wont really come as a surprise, (trained by WP Mullins) Biggest negative is Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride one of the favs Pride of Dulcote, who for me is too short so Im looking to take him on. Much like Mikael D'Haguenet earlier in the week, the general conclusion is he will require the ground soft, but I reckon he will handle good/soft just fine. Is on a 4 timer, having beaten the very useful looking and subsequent winning Paul Nolan runner Clan Tara LTO by a very easy 2l over 3m. As said with Mourad earlier, Mullins horses have been on the whole running very well this week and I actually quite fancy this one to win let alone place. Willie Mullins said he will be keeping him to long distances on stiff tracks and testing round. Whilst he wont get the testing ground, he will definitely get the stiff track (not quite testing ground), and hopefully he can get a decent pace to come off late on.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 1:30 Cheltenham: Walkon 5pts e/w 5/1 William Hill Has won his last two races and the last over course and distance was really impressive. Alan King & Robert Thornton have a fine record in the race. Was beaten by Zaynar at Newbury but has proven form on this track which can prove vital. 2:05 Cheltenham: Aachen 3pts e/w 8/1 generally & Cockney Trucker 2pts e/w 10/1 Victor Chandler Going with two here. The untapped potential of Aachen, who is unbeaten in three hurdles in this country, including a defeat of Big Eared Fran. Big Eared Fran was off 128 when winning at Sandown and Aachen is assessed at 142, so he's not thrown in but could be a lot better than that rating. Also going with Cockney Trucker ho is also unexposed and ran well here last year in the bumper. Phillip Hobbs does well in this race. 2:40 Cheltenham: Pride of Dulcote 6pts win 7/2 generally & Weapon's Amnesty 2 pts e/w 11/1 Bet365 (bog) Pride of Dulcote has been really impressive winning his completed starts. Slight worry is fall on this course but comments in running say was going very well at the time. Weapon's Ammnesty has won a Grade 3 and beaten in to second in a Grade 2. Reports suggest he has plenty of stamina and a return to three miles can see him go close. 3:20 Cheltenham: (Already on Air force One 5pts e/w 33/1) Neptune Collonges 3pts e/w 6/1 Bet365 (Bog) Albertas Run 2pts e/w 16/1 Betfred Neptune Collonges produced an excellent performance in last years Gold Cup and looks just as good if not better this time around. Maybe if he had not tried to keep up with Denman he would have finished second. Albertas Run has won both his starts here, and course form is paramount.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 Good to soft / good in places.

[Spooner]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 13:30 - Simarian 2pts e/w @ 66/1 Bet365 (bog) Simarian in my eyes is to big at 66/1, I backed this horse when he won at Cheltenham back in November, I wrote a little bit: 'Won here over c&d last time out, Looked a classy horse on debut at Hexham over Hurdles. Disappointed in a few runs after that but bounced back here last time out. Has chances and is the e/w play in the race.' He was pushed along very early that day but did stay on very well indeed to take the race quite easy in the end, form has since dipped and has been outclassed by the market leaders here, however I think the ground has been against him and this ground will suit today and I expect to see a much improved run, big chance imo. 14:05 - Cockney Trucker 3pts e/w @ 10/1 Bet365 (bog) I wrote this about Cockney Trucker before he won back in November at Newbury: Been waiting for this horse to come back out and im very sweet on him tomorrow, Ran at Cheltenham last time out over hurdles after some good bumper form and ran a decent race into 3rd, Only beaten just over ½l by Dee Ee Williams, He should improve bundles for that run. Was a f/c price of 4/1 on sporting life and I have to admit I was getting a bit exicted but the 2/1 on >betfair at the moment is a good price and can't see the bookies opening any bigger. Also I wouldn't put anyone taking small stakes for him to win the Supreme Novices or Ballymore Novices, Around 60 for both on >betfair at the moment. The horse that finished behind him that day Unfurled went on to run a decent race at Cheltenham, ran a poor race LTO but the ground is in his favour today and this another horse who i expect to run a good race. 14:40 - Cape Tribulation 10pts win @ 4/1 Sporting Bet I was very impressed with Cape Tribulation LTO at Doncaster, he bolted up and looks a very good horse, On Raglan Road ran in that race and runs here but fell with about 3 to jump, I think Cape Tribulation had the beating of him there anyway, very exicted about his chances today and the 4/1 on offer with Sportingbet looks a nice price. 15:20 - Exotic Dancer 5pts e/w @ 9/1 Hills Exotic Dancer is a very good horse and perhaps deserves to have won more than 5 races, played second fiddle to Kauto Star for a long time but I think he could just turn the form around today, he jumped very well at Leopardstown when winning the Lexus Chase winning by 20 lengths, Neptune Collonges fell in the race but ED would of won imo even if NC stayed on his feet. Think he has a great chance today with doubts over Denman and as mentioned he looked to have the beating of NC, the question is can he overcome Kauto, I expect him to run him close today, AP saddles.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 PRIDE OF DULCOTE 2.40 Cheltenham. 1 point win. Can be another winner for Nicholls and Walsh, as has the ability to win and the trip and ground's fine. Should be able to run at a decent pace for him and looks sure to be involved in the finish.

[Falbrav]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 MURPHY'S CARDINAL 4.00 Cheltenham. 0.5 points each way. Can improve and if doing so can certainly get involved in the outcome. The trip and ground shouldn't be a concern and Nina Carberry certainly knows the time of day in races of this nature. Open race on paper, but we can improve to find what's needed.

[Rainbow]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 big eared fran 440 chelt. 1 pt win. would be the best horse in the race and should get the perfect trip, stay on well and go very close.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 1.30 Starluck 13/2 PP BOG 12.5 pts e.w 4 places A very speedy horse judging by his wins over hurdles this season which have all been very classy. Given the speed he has shown, one may think he could struggle round here. However looking at his fairly decent efforts in the flat, he was around a mile and a half horse and that means he is not like a miler, 10f horse on the flat who I would think would struggle to win a TH, i.e MOA (my nap for Aintree.) Straluck should travel a long way into this race and there is a chance he wont fade like some think. Ebadiyan 9/1 tote 12.5 pts e.w 4 places If Starluck does fade late on then Ebadiyan is a different kind of horse to take advantage. He was a stayer on the flat for aga khan and oxx and indeed was good enough for oxx to send to royal asc and that significant. Over hurdles after a sloppy start, he has got his act together and posted some impressive wins. Lto he was second but lost little in defeat as he fought all the way to the line and given that the stiffer chelt track should help. Could spark wild celebrations this one. 2.05 Sunnyhillboy 7/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Been a real improver this one. Has won his last three races now and despite taken several rises in the weights so far it hasn’t stopped him. He also got a crucial win round here. I thought lto there was no chance he could win, it was a slowly run race and he was held up with loads of horses in front of him. Yet he still managed to fly late on to get up and that win deserves extra praise given the way the race was raced. Should go well again. Raise Your Heart 12/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places A strong traveller in his races, he seems to suit these big field races and actually for an ire horse is well handicapped. The ire handicapper has him a pound higher than what he is in this and that is unusual. He has won in a race with 30 and 22 runners before and also run a fine race in a strong punch handicap last year. His listed win lto showed good ability and that his current form is good, he should go quite well here. 2.40 Pride of Dulcote 10/3 pp bog 25 pts A horse who only just was a novice this season, he has put up some top performances this season. He won so easily ahead of a 136 rated horse and then fell after that in a race when he was cruising at the time and for which the form is pretty good given the top two especially. Then he has had two more easy wins after that and even when he thrashed a horse in a two runner race when massive odds on lto, the second was competitive afterwards. He has a lofty 155 rating and still gives teh impression there is more to come.

Thetwincamdrifdt 16/1 pp bog 15 pts e.w 4 places A major stayer here and thats what is needed here. Looking at the last two winners of this NC and WL they really are major stayers who will hit flat spots ultimately to stay on relentlessly. He also is a major improver judging by his last few runs where he has seemingly improved every time before running second when really staying in a grade 2 lto. Admittedly he was half flattered because the winner was idling but this certainly is an improving sort who is going to relish the demands of this race. 3.20 Kauto Star 2/1 wh bog 35 pts I have deliberated this for ages but in the end have gone for KS. I do have some doubts, is he quite the same horse at chelt that he is at kem (personally he isn’t but he may not need to be) what exactly did he do in the KG despite the classy nature of his victory. However I think the decision not to run him since the GC is perfect and could just be the key. Last year denman was great and didn’t allow him to be great but at the same time I still expected KS to travel a bit better than he did, he was off it too early for more liking. NC warrants big respect on his run last year and a good win lto but I think his price is starting to get a little bit skinny now for a good horse but ultimately who wasn’t good enough last year and that despite him getting seemingly perfect conditions that day. Today it will still be a test but probably will be a bit easier than last year and that should suit KS. Roll Along 66/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Well Im on this for the GN and wasnt going to go for him here but looking at it I think he has interesting form lines for this race and could shock a few to place. I cant think he will be good enough or quick enough to win but regularly horses at huge odds run mighty races in this race and often they are stayers like this one, all he does is stay. He showed that here in the rsa when staying on big time to be second behind AR, then did it again to beat AFO easily in the end, after that he was beaten by BS but I consider BS a suspect stayer and RA in a properly run race may overturn that form. Lto the ground was against but today he could be doing great work late on and run a perfect GN trial. 4.40 Faltering Fallback 18/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Has some fair form this one over hurdles at times. He chased home Tranquil Sea twice including once in a grade 1 last season and he has carried that form over to this season. His last two runs have been solid; one in victory when he beat a subsequent winner and his second lto where he flew late on was fair. He steps back up in trip today which shapes to suit and could go well. Carrick Oscar 40/1 bet3 bog 10 pts e.w 5 places Could be overpriced. Has been running over fences and actually at times has been competitive. However he switches back to hurdles for his first start for a new trainer and that could be interesting. I remember his good win on his first hurdle win and on his first hurdle start this season he ran well. He was third but the form of the top two who have improved since by over a stone and yet CO is only two pounds worse, that could be fair. 5.15 Poquelin 11/2 boy bog 15 pts e.w Interesting connections have gone this route. They could have gone arkle but instead have laid him out for this. He has already won at this track in the winter when he got going so late to win. Then afterwards they went right handed which didn’t suit. Back to a left handed course is more his thing and he appears to have an engine this one and that could suit in this race, could be flying late one.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 1.30 Been looking at this race again & back in January advised that 2 horses i was interested in were Walkon & Reve De Sivola. Walkon beat RDS by 1.25L on heavy ground at Chelt. It had previously also beaten at Cheps on soft ground by 5L. Now i see no reason why they cant fill the top 2 places again & the value lies with Nick Williams horse REVE DE SIVOLA at 22/1 Bet365 (4places). The reason is that how do we know what those 2 horses can do on the ground, is it a case that Choc's fall on Weds took more out of him than he thought. He didnt get VPU home yesterday & I just think the Williams horse maybe a tad value in todays race. my trends indicate Stow & trenchant at good ew prices but i'll be backing Walkon & Reve De Sivola both EW. 2.05 This race normally goes to a horse that has ran within 5 weeks, so a horse thta has had a good prep race beforehand & one that likes this type of track. Culcabock & Sunnyhillboy are 2 that i have picked out amongst about 6 horses. Its not really a betting event for me but 50/1 on Culcabock is too big especially as its won here back in Dec 08 over this distance, the ratings say it cannot win but that course form is worth considering. 15/2 with hills on Sunnyhillboy is the best you will get all day so take it now! 2.40 I see Ginge's advice on Alpha Ridge but what concerns me slightly is all its wins have been o soft or heavy & the ground there is getting faster albeit they are on the new course. I had a word for Pride of Dulcote last week but Ruby has yet to complete on him which is strange! Its 3 wins this season have all been impresive but hasnt beaten much. The other 2 i like are Thetwincamdrift & Weapons Of Amnesty & i think both will run big races. TheTwincamdrift stays all day & when some of these start to tire, that one will be running on. i remember choc getting Nenuphar Collonges home last year & perhaps he'll do it again! 3.20 Never know whether to bet in the race or not, on the book you cannot get away fro the 1st 4 in the betting. I wouldnt have Barbers shop & Madison Du Berlais all day. BS will be ok on the course whereas MDB wont be. BS has too much to find against the big ones. Is it finally McCoys year again, has he picked the right one, Can Exotic finally win a GC, well some of these chaser come into thier own at 9. This is ED's best track IMO & if McCoy gets it switched off, I cant see out of the 1st 3. I think KS & NC will fill the other 2 places. 5.15 I felt My Petra was a good thing last year but again it just failed coming in 2nd to Tiger Cry in this race. I think Henderson has been careful with it this year, It has to have good ground & the trainer would love to win his dads race again. 14/1 with Bet365 is too big IMO, it was 3/1 fav last year! . The danger i feel is Pasco if it acts on the track, its jumping this year has been excellent & 11/1 looks great EW value with Paddy power.

[PL2008]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 13:30 CHELTENHAM Trenchant 20-1 RPF EW Trenchant may not have the services of Robert Thornton but does have value in the betting. 121 in three starts over hurdles - all with Thornton on board. He defeated Ainama, lost by 3 3/4L to Torphichen from the last two suggests he can perform. This is his toughest task yet but trainer A King knows how to get them ready for this race. A King in this race since 2005 = 1st('05) 3rd ('06) 1st and 11th ('07) 2nd ('08) 5PTS @ 28-1 Bet365 BOG

[Pumpit]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 13.30 This race for me is full of very good horses and Alan King has a good horse in Walkon this must be said,Jumbo Rio looks a good EW bet imv. With Walkon i think the horse will find this a hard race (famous last words as it hacks up)neck on the line iam laying Walkon on the win market for 1pt and going in at a place lay at 2.28 Betfair for 2pts,good luck:hope.

[mowgli77]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 I have a strange feeling Exotic Dancer could win the Gold Cup this year, it doesn't have that much to find with Kauto, wasn't right last season but looks as good as ever this year and has not been overraced. McCoy usually rides Exotic Dancer and Albertas Run, I don't know if he had a choice here but if Albertas Run had a genuine chance I think he'd have wanted to be on it at all costs. There will definitely be a good pace in the race and that could set it up for that trademark late surge up the hill from Exotic Dancer.

[mowgli77]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 I'm on Walkon ante post at 20-1 so instead of laying it off I've backed Zaynar too just now as I see these 2 having the best chance of a win. Zaynar has been impressive both races and beaten Walkon already.

[jtw1]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4

I'm on Walkon ante post at 20-1 so instead of laying it off I've backed Zaynar too just now as I see these 2 having the best chance of a win. Zaynar has been impressive both races and beaten Walkon already.

Good choice MOWGLI :clap

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 What a performance by Ruby Walsh and American Trilogy!!! Blew the field away!!

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 I dont like being busy when Chelters is on :\ 2.40 Western Charmer Been running well in hot races over shorter and I think he will enjoy the step up in trip. He has that necessary bit of class (finished behind Pandorama last time) and this isnt a brilliant renewal of the Alvbert Barlett IMO. 40.0 win 9.8 place Also on Weapons Amnesty

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4

1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Mourad - E/W. 18/1 Bet365 2:40 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE The Midnight Club E/W 20/1 Bet365 (I believe 25's are available in places??) .

Mourad - 3rd, and no complaints from me, beaten by 2 very good looking horses, and well ridden by Ruby to take 3rd from Starluck. Knew he had a big run in him. The Midnight Club - 3rd, and held every opportunity but had to be snatched up twice before second last fence as another horse cut across him on both occasions, (may have even been the winner who cut across him), re gathered himself and stayed on strongly enough for 3rd. Good e/w double at decent odds, as Raise Your Heart done nothing.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Kauto Star THE LEGEND

[jtw1]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 What a great chaser , a privelige to watch him do it :clap:clap:clap And a great run from DENMAN :clap

[SteveO]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 Jumped beautifully all the way round. Denman did look ominous and will be a lot better next year but so chuffed Kauto won.

[TOP CAT]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 Just top class chaser what can you say, for me AP stole the show, we will all be back next year for more.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Cheltenham ~ 13th March ~ DAY 4 A joy to watch (and I had backed Denman) :clap