Cheltenham Myths

[billy the punter]

#1 - 4yo hurdlers have a bad record in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. True or false? When initially looking at the stats it seems the statement is true. From 28 runners over the past 20 runnings there has been just one 4yo winner - Hors La Loi. Is this a reliable stat though? 19 of those were complete no-hopers, made up of the following 33/1 (2), 40/1 (1), 50/1 (1), 66/1 (5), 100/1 (5), 150/1 (1) 200/1 (3), 250 (1) and therefore should be ignored (although Olinstar (4th at 66/1 in 1990) and Dubai Seven Stars (9th at 100/1 in 2002) both ran well and above form). The 8 priced under 33/1 were: Binocular 8/1 - 2nd Quatre Heures 10/1 - 11th Locksmith 20/1 - 7th Hors La Loi 9/2 - 1st Slew Man 12/1 - 6th Pridwell 14/1 - 2nd Lemons Mill 10/1 - 2nd Nordic Surprise 6/1 - 4th Showing a formline of 20716224 The single figure priced 4yo runners show 214 formlines Martin Pipe's 4yo runners price under 33/1 show 71622 formlines All UK trained 4yos under 33/1 show 271622 formlines It's worth noting that Locksmith ran a lot better than his 7th position suggests, beaten just 14l after making most of the running. All this plus the fact that two rank outsiders also ran well in the past bodes well. So in my opinion the statement is false. it's a myth that 4yo's have a poor record in the Supreme Novice. Even including all the rank outsiders we have 8 horses than run upto and above their form in this (with obviously the more fancied runners doing even better). Not only can 4yos run well in this, they probably will run well. No prizes for guessing who I'm backing in this! ;) Although I will probably go top heavy on the place side (maybe even place only), as running well without winning is probably the likeliest outcome.

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Myths Does it begin with a T? :lol Interesting stuff Billy - Just goes to show that whilst trends can be useful, you have to be selective in which ones you apply.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Myths I am on the Pipe horse despite the fact only 1 4yo has managed to win the race. It all depends on the oppostion & this year doesnt look as strong to me as previous years. i think Hurricane Fly would have murdered these to be honest & Cousin Vinny is now too short as Mullins main choice. Anyhting 7 or 8/1 ish is worth a shout & I tipped up Torphichen last week as the best choice to beat the fav.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Myths Here is the post billy

23-02-2009, 23:49

#158 (permalink)

bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 41 Posts: 16,498 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1

Re: Cheltenham 2009 - Ante Post Bets and Discussion Supreme Novices Hurdle Checking my notes, 4yo's dont have great record in the race but off 10st 13lb (8lb allowance) Pipes horse TORPHICHEN looks to have a great chance despite its inexperience. 8/1 with Stan James it easily accounted for Trenchant LTO who duly franked the form at kempton beating a host of decent novices. We have to find a horse as good as the Mullin's pair but although i was going to make Cousin Vinny one of the bets of the meeting, its last fence mistake last time out showed that inexperience could be a problem & in such a competitive race may be beatable again. Ideally from my trends, 3 runs & 2 wins at least is an ideal profile for the winner with last run on Jan / feb. Go native, Karabak, Mikaell D'hagneut, Persian city, Realt Dubh, Red Maloney, Shamari, Trenchant are the ones that fit the bill & will be in my shortlist on the day but wont all run. __________________ www.tip4profit.com

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Does it begin with a T? :lol Interesting stuff Billy - Just goes to show that whilst trends can be useful, you have to be selective in which ones you apply.

;) Indeed, although I'm big on stats for this meeting, some tell just half the story. When looking further they can actually prove the opposite, as I feel this one does.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Here is the post billy

23-02-2009, 23:49

#158 (permalink)

bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 41 Posts: 16,498 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1

Re: Cheltenham 2009 - Ante Post Bets and Discussion Supreme Novices Hurdle Checking my notes, 4yo's dont have great record in the race but off 10st 13lb (8lb allowance) Pipes horse TORPHICHEN looks to have a great chance despite its inexperience. 8/1 with Stan James it easily accounted for Trenchant LTO who duly franked the form at kempton beating a host of decent novices. We have to find a horse as good as the Mullin's pair but although i was going to make Cousin Vinny one of the bets of the meeting, its last fence mistake last time out showed that inexperience could be a problem & in such a competitive race may be beatable again. Ideally from my trends, 3 runs & 2 wins at least is an ideal profile for the winner with last run on Jan / feb. Go native, Karabak, Mikaell D'hagneut, Persian city, Realt Dubh, Red Maloney, Shamari, Trenchant are the ones that fit the bill & will be in my shortlist on the day but wont all run. __________________ www.tip4profit.com

Yes I agree Rob and I have one or two of the same on my shortlist too. Re Torphican I was going to wait to see if anyone was going to go 1-2-3-4 on the E/Ws but I doubt they will so have just taken 8s on betfair. I have a feeling they will come for this horse, I think plenty of people will be looking to oppose Cousin Vinny at the price.

[mixerthetrixter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths not looking good for vinny lay it now before you read the morning papers lol

[jcosgrove]

Re: Cheltenham Myths what has happened to cousin vinny?

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

what has happened to cousin vinny?

nothing i doubt as the exchanges arent reflecting it yet

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

nothing i doubt as the exchanges arent reflecting it yet

Just a lot of rumours is all. Travelled badly apparently. Has drifted slightly on the exchanges but that doesn't mean a thing - it was always going to drift because it's a ridiculous price. I think it would be foolish to read into any rumours.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Just a lot of rumours is all. Travelled badly apparently. Has drifted slightly on the exchanges but that doesn't mean a thing - it was always going to drift because it's a ridiculous price. I think it would be foolish to read into any rumours.

Personally, at 2/1 ish, I think Cousin Vinny is one of the best value lays of the festival. (Torphicen will be my bet,) At 1/2 for the field, I think that's a terrific opportunity for layers.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Personally' date=' at 2/1 ish, [b']I think Cousin Vinny is one of the best value lays of the festival. (Torphicen will be my bet,) At 1/2 for the field, I think that's a terrific opportunity for layers.

I cant understand why he is such a good value lay? Ok, hes untested over hurdles at Cheltenham but he does run well here having won the bumper here last season, admittedly the bumper doesnt produce many top class hurdlers but having won @ the track before, and will act on the ground if it happens to be soft, good/soft, or even good, then to me he represents a solid favourite 2/1 may seem short, but the way he travelled LTO suggested there is plenty more in the tank to come. Torphichen an obvious threat, but I just cannot see past Cousin Vinny Im afraid.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

I cant understand why he is such a good value lay? Ok, hes untested over hurdles at Cheltenham but he does run well here having won the bumper here last season, admittedly the bumper doesnt produce many top class hurdlers but having won @ the track before, and will act on the ground if it happens to be soft, good/soft, or even good, then to me he represents a solid favourite 2/1 may seem short, but the way he travelled LTO suggested there is plenty more in the tank to come. Torphichen an obvious threat, but I just cannot see past Cousin Vinny Im afraid.

Like you say the bumper never produces good horses. Monsignor the only one in recent years. Other than that we have Montelado who despite winning this, ended up a crock. They were decent years though, recently the Champion bumper has been a poor standard. Over hurdles he has achieved nothing - we know no more about him than we did last March. His two hurdle wins have come at 4/9 and 2/7, first of those he beat trees - the 2nd/3rd beaten a long way in maiden hurdles since, and the 2nd of those was also a poor race (obviously, he was 2/7 after all) - the 3rd was rated 100. Then he was going well when falling in the worst grade 1 hurdle you will find. Some of those grade 1 novices in Ireland are extremely uncompetitive. Of course that is not Cousin Vinny's fault - but the fact is he has not shown enough to warrant his price. He may be better than shown, so could hack up, but I don't know that - I can only go on facts, so therefore I'm opposing. walter - unfortunately you have to lay over 3/1 currently on betfair. :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Like you say the bumper never produces good horses. Monsignor the only one in recent years. Other than that we have Montelado who despite winning this, ended up a crock. They were decent years though, recently the Champion bumper has been a poor standard. Over hurdles he has achieved nothing - we know no more about him than we did last March. His two hurdle wins have come at 4/9 and 2/7, first of those he beat trees - the 2nd/3rd beaten a long way in maiden hurdles since, and the 2nd of those was also a poor race (obviously, he was 2/7 after all) - the 3rd was rated 100. Then he was going well when falling in the worst grade 1 hurdle you will find. Some of those grade 1 novices in Ireland are extremely uncompetitive. Of course that is not Cousin Vinny's fault - but the fact is he has not shown enough to warrant his price. He may be better than shown, so could hack up, but I don't know that - I can only go on facts, so therefore I'm opposing. walter - unfortunately you have to lay over 3/1 currently on betfair. :ok

I understand what you are saying mate, as a pro punter you look for best value and Cousin Vinny isnt best value for what he seemingly has or gasnt achieved. In your opinion that is... Point taken, however Mullins is imo, always very honest about his horses as Ruby, Patrick and any other jockey associated with the stable are, and every one of them state Cousin Vinny as being something a bit special. Whether that will be shown in the supreme novices, I dont know. I for one though am willing to take the chance, and have already taken the chance, admittedly @ bigger odds than 2/1.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

I understand what you are saying mate, as a pro punter you look for best value and Cousin Vinny isnt best value for what he seemingly has or gasnt achieved. In your opinion that is... Point taken, however Mullins is imo, always very honest about his horses as Ruby, Patrick and any other jockey associated with the stable are, and every one of them state Cousin Vinny as being something a bit special. Whether that will be shown in the supreme novices, I dont know. I for one though am willing to take the chance, and have already taken the chance, admittedly @ bigger odds than 2/1.

Well that's the thing, like I said, he could be better than shown, and obviously being Irish trained I do know less about him than some of his rivals. You're right, it's more a value thing. I really thought they'd be going 5/1 the field for this with the same field. We all seem in unison regarding Torpichen it seems. I need someone to lay me a top-6 finish bet.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Well that's the thing, like I said, he could be better than shown, and obviously being Irish trained I do know less about him than some of his rivals. You're right, it's more a value thing. I really thought they'd be going 5/1 the field for this with the same field. We all seem in unison regarding Torpichen it seems. I need someone to lay me a top-6 finish bet.

Just to add, a fit Hurricane Fly would have pissed it :lol

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Myths WILLIE MULLINS on Monday expressed some concern about Cousin Vinny in advance of Tuesday's Williamhill.com Supreme Novices' Hurdle, for which the six-year-old is favourite. Mullins said: "Cousin Vinny didn't travel over as well as we expected. He didn't eat up or drink up on Saturday night and, while he was better last night, it is a slight concern. "Hopefully, he will eat and drink normally tonight and be in better form in the morning. "He is going to take his chance as we feel there is no point in stalling the ball at this stage. But I expectedto be a lot happier with him."

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Myths Jumps boffs, what price do you think Medermit would be if he was a proven course winner?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Jumps boffs' date=' what price do you think Medermit would be if he was a proven course winner?[/quote'] A lot shorter, but he lost at Exeter, which is a similar track. That's why you get this price.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths #2 The hill finds them out True or false? Sure, if there are chinks in your armour, the hill will find you out. However I do feel it's over played. The fear of the hill can sometimes be unfounded. For example there is a lot of rubbish spoken about Binocular not coming up the hill last year. That was NOT the reason he was undone in a finish. McCoy took it up on the bend and, although I make a case for 4yos running well in the race, it was perhaps a strep too far to expect him to maintain his run to the line against more phycially strong opponent like Captian Cee Bee. After all he came up the hill well enough to beat the other 20 runners! But this example, of taking it up too early, is not always a negative. From last year it seems it depends on the race... Where the winner took it up: Hurdles/Bumper (12 races) After the last - 4 Approaching the last - 2 Before two out - 2 Two out - 1 Three out -1 Made all - 1 Chases (13 races) Two out - 5 Three out - 2 Lead halfway approx -2 Approaching two out - 1 Last 1 Approaching last - 1 Made all 1 Over hurdles it seems there is still plenty to play for late on in the race with 67% of last hurdle leaders losing - not suprising considering the way hurdle races (especially handicaps) are run. Perhaps proving that Binocular's performance was even better than first thought? With chases however a massive 85% of leaders at the 2nd last going on to win. Shame I haven't the time to look at the years before so bear in mind this is a small sample obviously. Interesting reading for in-running players/savers all the same.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

#2 The hill finds them out True or false? Sure, if there are chinks in your armour, the hill will find you out. However I do feel it's over played. The fear of the hill can sometimes be unfounded. For example there is a lot of rubbish spoken about Binocular not coming up the hill last year. That was NOT the reason he was undone in a finish. McCoy took it up on the bend and, although I make a case for 4yos running well in the race, it was perhaps a strep too far to expect him to maintain his run to the line against more phycially strong opponent like Captian Cee Bee. After all he came up the hill well enough to beat the other 20 runners! But this example, of taking it up too early, is not always a negative. From last year it seems it depends on the race... Where the winner took it up: Hurdles/Bumper (12 races) After the last - 4 Approaching the last - 2 Before two out - 2 Two out - 1 Three out -1 Made all - 1 Chases (13 races) Two out - 5 Three out - 2 Lead halfway approx -2 Approaching two out - 1 Last 1 Approaching last - 1 Made all 1 Over hurdles it seems there is still plenty to play for late on in the race with 67% of last hurdle leaders losing - not suprising considering the way hurdle races (especially handicaps) are run. Perhaps proving that Binocular's performance was even better than first thought? With chases however a massive 85% of leaders at the 2nd last going on to win. Shame I haven't the time to look at the years before so bear in mind this is a small sample obviously. Interesting reading for in-running players/savers all the same.

For me, the hill will not be a problem for Binocular, only one horse came up the hill better last season, and that was the winner CCB, and we havent seen him since, so we dont really know just how good he is.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Myths

Where the winner took it up (2008): Chases (13 races) Two out - 5 Three out - 2 Lead halfway approx -2 Approaching two out - 1 Last 1 Approaching last - 1 Made all 1 With chases however a massive 85% of leaders at the 2nd last going on to win.

2 chases today Arkle - 2 out leader: WON W.Hill - 2 out leader: 2nd (and to be fair if it wasn't for the brilliant McCoy and Whichita Lineman he would've won, a winner in a normal year) I feel the X-country could be misleading, although the 2 out leader still ran well in 2nd.