muppet77 Posted August 16, 2009 Author Share Posted August 16, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 120 bets, +30% yield !!! IFK Goteborg Helsingborgs IF under 11 @ 1.83 ;)Roda JC Nijmegen under 10 @ 2 ;)Shimizu S-Pulse Albirex Niigata over 10 @ 2.2 :eyes PROFIT £0.50 matches: 11 wins: 7 strike: 64% profit: £6.06 staked: £37 yield: +16% (if played as £5 singles) profit: £14.65 staked: £55 yield: +27% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 120 bets, +30% yield !!! Halmstads BK AIK Solna under 10 @ 2.25 ;) PROFIT £1.25 matches: 12 wins: 8 strike: 75% profit: £7.31 staked: £38 yield: +19% (if played as £1 singles) profit: £4.18 staked: £12 yield: +35% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 124 bets, +30% yield !!! spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 18/8/09 Sunderland Chelsea 10.80 u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 124 bets, +30% yield !!! Burton Albion ~ Torquay, under 11 @ 2.25Panathinaikos ~ Ath Madrid, over 10 @ 2.1 2x£1 singles 1x£1 double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 124 bets, +30% yield !!! AAB ~ FC NORDSJALLAND, under 10 @ 2.1Sanfrecce Hiroshima ~ Oita Trinita, under 10 @ 1.83 2x£1 singles 1x£1 double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 124 bets, +30% yield !!! these bets DOMESTIC CL+UEFA ALL 1 112 13 125 bets 0.0% 50.9% 53.8% 51.2% wins 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 4.0% level 100.0% 44.6% 46.2% 44.8% losses 4.20 560.20 85.50 645.70 staked -100% 27% 45% 30% yield -4.20 152.10 38.80 190.90 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 18/8/09 Sunderland Chelsea 10.80 u 1 15 -4.20 19/8/09 Albirex Niigata Gamba Osaka 9.50 u 1 19/8/09 Panathinaikos Ath Madrid 10.75 o 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 20, 2009 Author Share Posted August 20, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 125 bets, +30% yield !!! these bets DOMESTIC CL+UEFA ALL 2 113 14 127 bets 0.0% 50.4% 50.0% 50.4% wins 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 3.9% level 100.0% 45.1% 50.0% 45.7% losses 6.75 561.70 90.75 652.45 staked -100% 27% 37% 28% yield -6.75 150.60 33.55 184.15 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 19/8/09 Panathinaikos Ath Madrid 10.75 o 3 9 -5.25 19/8/09 Albirex Niigata Gamba Osaka 9.50 u 1 11 -1.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 20, 2009 Author Share Posted August 20, 2009 Re: Total Corners Spreads: 124 bets, +30% yield !!! AAB ~ FC NORDSJALLAND, under 10 @ 2.1 ;)Sanfrecce Hiroshima ~ Oita Trinita, under 10 @ 1.83 ;) 2x£1 singles 1x£1 double PROFIT £4.79 BOOM! matches: 14 wins: 10 strike: 71% profit: £12.10 staked: £41 yield: +30% (if played as £1 singles) profit: £6.12 staked: £14 yield: +44% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 20, 2009 Share Posted August 20, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield A little early in the season but 2 live games this weekend look like corner fests: LFC vs Villa - Villa 1 of the top averages in away corner counts in the EPL last year. Anfield a small pitch with big atmosphere and obviously LFC are always good for a decent home corner count, but potentially so are the away team as stoke proved the other day. Westham vs spurs - One of the grounds with the highest corner counts in the league last year mainly due to the fact that it is the shortest and widest pitch in the league. Like i said, it's a bit early but both should hit double figures at least and are likely to go pretty high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Thanks valuef. Good thinking man's logical analysis. I tend to go with a mathematical system rather than look at the key variables that you suggest. Have you ever followed your pitch size idea up? If not why not start a thread? I am sure that pitch dimensions and who plays old fashioned wingers or wide strikers is not hard to find on the web. . . . . ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield I make a lot of money from corner betting (mainly in England) mate. I keep spreadsheets for each team recording their corner count: 1. Home corners for 2. Home corners against 3. Total corners home(both teams count added) 4. Away corners for When you do this, you start to see patterns developing, and it is no coincidence. It was from these patterns that I tried to see why this may be the case and the study has progressed over the months to get those answers. The teams with consistently high corner counts in their games tend to be teams that: 1. Play on a short/wide pitch - Tight ground. 2. Play a certain way IE: Villa with Young and agbonlahor the 2 wide of a three pronged attack, and attacking fullbacks to supplement them 3. Use direct 'wingers'. Eg. Hunt, Lennon 4. Managers styles of play. IE: Steve Coppel at Reading, he used to focus the point of attack down the flanks at all times and if you check their corner stats both in the prem 2 years ago and last year in the championship, you'll see what I'm talking about! 1 great example was Portsmouth. EVERY single home under Harry Redknapp, their corner count at Fratton Park was under 10 corners(for both sides together) and then when Adams took over the pattern just completely changed. Found it very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Another good example would be Wigan. I'm very interested in them this year. Martinez plays the game on the deck, he likes the ball to be passed around out from the back to the front, he's not the type who likes to play direct flooding crosses into the box. Couple this with the fact that the DW Stadium pitch is longer than most, I'm expecting the under 11 market to yield some profit this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Interesting. If you do make profit then you must find value. Are you able to calculate your own prices for fixed or your own spread? If not then there must be hidden value that you cannot measure. the bookies know that villa produce high counts at the moment but the question is how high? Do you go for fixed prices or spreads? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Being from dublin valuef, do you know where i can get corner stats for the irish prem? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Carlisle ~ Exeter, over 11 @ 1.83FC Union Berlin ~ Hansa Rostock, under 11 @ 1.83Norwich ~ Wycombe, under 12 @ 1.83SpVgg Greuther Fürth ~ Arminia Bielefeld, under 11 @ 1.83 £1 lukcy 15 = £15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Whoops. Dont know where i got that last german game from. So scrap the arminia game just to make a 7 pound patent with the other 3 teams. Doh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Interesting. If you do make profit then you must find value. Are you able to calculate your own prices for fixed or your own spread? If not then there must be hidden value that you cannot measure. the bookies know that villa produce high counts at the moment but the question is how high? Do you go for fixed prices or spreads? I do both. I'll only buy spreads though, never sell. If I see a potential corner fest, I'll buy the spread rather than back the fixed odds overs. In fixed odds overs/unders I always have a price and/or line in mind before I even go looking around for the market. I do calculations to calculate the value on every bet I place in every market. Basically what I'm looking for is a line of 10.5 or 11 at a price of 5/6-11/10. That's how I operate and then target games that are IMO going to return a win verdict about 65-80% of the time. That also allows a %margin of error in my own probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Don't know about the Irish corner stats mate, I don't follow Irish footy! My bad! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Ah that makes sense. Dont feel bad about not following the irish. The corner stats just dont seem to exist! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboybroon Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield 1 great example was Portsmouth. EVERY single home under Harry Redknapp, their corner count at Fratton Park was under 10 corners(for both sides together) and then when Adams took over the pattern just completely changed. Found it very interesting. Mate apologies if i'm wrong, but as i've done a lot of corner betting over the last 3 years or so, that comment jumped out at me big time as surely wrong, and also pretty much impossible. I certainly remember pompey were always a team i would look out for at home under Redknapp, and i'm positive i won laying 9 or less corners on a few occasions at Fratton park. Checking my stats taken from football data for the 07/08 season, they're were 10 corners or over in at least half of their home games that season, including a couple of matches with 16 corners and 18 in the game against Man Utd.?? Again, sorry if something's been lost in translation, but i'm not sure it has.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield This was the pattern for the beginning of 2008/09 mate when Pompey were a team full of defensive players.... 7* 5 9 7 14 15 14 18 14 22 6* 10 12* you are right about a lot of corners, but mainly after Harry was gone, just look at the first 4 home games prepared to the rest...... I might be a little off in my time frames but the stats above would suggest the first 8 weeks of the season(IE: 4 home games in 8 weeks) and Harry left about the time when the pattern massively changes. not sure about the season before but I do remember Pompey last season having far too many defensively minded players...(I remember thinking that was very strange for Harry) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Another good example would be Wigan. I'm very interested in them this year. Martinez plays the game on the deck, he likes the ball to be passed around out from the back to the front, he's not the type who likes to play direct flooding crosses into the box. Couple this with the fact that the DW Stadium pitch is longer than most, I'm expecting the under 11 market to yield some profit this year. Good to hear. I have a fair sized sell on the Wigan v Man U game at 11 tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboybroon Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield This was the pattern for the beginning of 2008/09 mate when Pompey were a team full of defensive players.... 7* 5 9 7 14 15 14 18 14 22 6* 10 12* you are right about a lot of corners, but mainly after Harry was gone, just look at the first 4 home games prepared to the rest...... I might be a little off in my time frames but the stats above would suggest the first 8 weeks of the season(IE: 4 home games in 8 weeks) and Harry left about the time when the pattern massively changes. not sure about the season before but I do remember Pompey last season having far too many defensively minded players...(I remember thinking that was very strange for Harry) Fair play mate, your spot on with your stats, but when you said EVERY game under Harry i thought the sample would be a lot more than four games;) and not a sample we can really take anything from. Harry's teams will generally get a lot of corners, if he has his team playing well. In the the 06/7 season they regularly had 10 corners themselves not counting the away teams, and in one match had 19 out of 24 corners:loon The way he's got spurs playing, they should have plenty of corners this season, but as you know it all depends on many different factors, and each game has to be treated on it's own merits. Agree with W Ham v Spurs yeilding double figures tomorrow. Good to know that your into corners......you should start a thread?? And Well done on the profit so far muppet.....will keep looking in.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Vitesse ~ Den Haag, under 10 @ 2Crewe ~ Hereford, under 12 @ 1.83Cheltenham ~ Bradford, under 12 @ 1.9AGF ~ SILKEBORG, under 10 @ 2.2 £1 lucky15 = £15 staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield spread stake per home away corners bet corner Wigan ManUnited 11.00 u 1 Inter Bari 10.80 u 1 Hearts Rangers 10.00 o 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield i also agree on the wigan sell! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield i also agree on the wigan sell! Although I have a 4 point sell on that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Yeah my estimation of corners was a little more than half a corner from their mid point so this bet is a small one for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield £1 lucky 15 = £15 all sunday games SONDERJYSKE ~ FC NORDSJALLAND, under 10 @ 2.1Levadeiakos ~ Kavala, over 10 @ 2.25Gamba Osaka ~ Nagoya Grampus, over 10 @ 2.2Kawasaki Frontale ~ Montedio Yamagata, under 10 @ 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 127 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 41 bets +30% yield Fair play mate, your spot on with your stats, but when you said EVERY game under Harry i thought the sample would be a lot more than four games;) and not a sample we can really take anything from. Harry's teams will generally get a lot of corners, if he has his team playing well. In the the 06/7 season they regularly had 10 corners themselves not counting the away teams, and in one match had 19 out of 24 corners:loon The way he's got spurs playing, they should have plenty of corners this season, but as you know it all depends on many different factors, and each game has to be treated on it's own merits. Agree with W Ham v Spurs yeilding double figures tomorrow. Good to know that your into corners......you should start a thread?? And Well done on the profit so far muppet.....will keep looking in.:ok I must admit I was surprised myself when I checked my stats!:lol Could have sworn it was more than 4 games. It was more the set up of the team rather than Harry. Harry is an attacking manager but towards his end time at Pompey his team was really defensive looking, which was a surprise. I'm expecting alot of corners at the lane this season, it's one of the grounds set up best for corners - small and wide pitch, tightish ground. and also Aaron Lennon wins a load of corners with his direct wing play and crossing. And especially when crouch plays, they will be swinging in crosses. They also play with really attacking full backs such as Hutton and Bale(when fit) Not really the time to start a thread but will pop into this one with standout games. I put a fair few corner bets up on my website(homepage). Wigan UTD looking odds on for the under 11 at half time. C.C = 2-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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