muppet77 Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 295 bets +26% yield. SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE me vs spreads these bets ALL 30% 104.29 total corner ests 1 296 bets 29% 73.91 -0.2% v 5.6% 100.0% 53.0% wins 28% 44.36 average error 0.0% 3.4% level 27% 15.62 2.75 v 2.8 0.0% 43.6% losses 26% 0 av absolute error 11.20 2068.05 staked 25% -7.33 0.08 v 0.45 11.20 536.55 profit 24% -24.00 2.80 0.74 profit / 1pt stake 23% -40.94 sell & buy yields 100% 26% yield 31% & 3% 47.25 record win months with profit -40.00 record loss 14 out of 16 max wins & losses in a row this week this month sell bets 80% 6 & 5 bets 1 3 buy bets 20% profit 11.20 18.70 top league yields stake 11.20 18.70 SpIn bets 76% italy 66% 12 bets yield 100% 100% Extrabets 24% e2 42% 8 bets spain 40% 93 bets champ 39% 14 bets SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 23/8/10 Man City Liverpool 11.80 u 4 9 11.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 295 bets +26% yield. I've always thought that the value you find with this system is because of the betting patterns of the spread betting punters. From what I have read elsewhere, people tend to buy rather than sell. So the spread betting companies set there spreads higher to account for this, which allows you to find value on the sells. If the value you found was down to you predicting corner counts better than the bookies, would you not see as much profit from the buys as you do from the sells? If this thread is changing the way people bet, or more importantly, changing the way the bookies anticipate people betting. then yes, value will be much harder to find in the future. some good points. i wondered this and i once looked at 100 or so games, betting blindly on "sell" and came out with a 1% yield, compared to my 20-30% when being more selective. i do agree about the buys being tough as thats what people want to bet on - its human nature to want or buy - be it corners, goals, throw in etc. you rarely want to sit down, have a bet and cheer on a 0-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Foreign Guy Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 296 bets +26% yield. I often wind up "cheering" for a 0 - 0 it's the one correct score price I find value in (and am able to model much easier than any other). Mind you when I say cheering I actually mean wandering round the supermarket completely ignoring the game. Nice start to the season anyway even if I didn't get on the tips. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 27, 2010 Author Share Posted August 27, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 296 bets +26% yield. SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 28/8/10 Chelsea Stoke 11.00 u 3 28/8/10 Tottenham Wigan 11.80 u 4 first with extra or spreadex second with extrabet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 27, 2010 Share Posted August 27, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 296 bets +26% yield. Best of luck with those. Both prices still available with EB at the time of writing! I'm carrying on with my fixeds odds plays and have taken the same firm's prices for under 10.5; 2.11 at Chelsea and 2.58 at Spurs. Under 11.5 at 1.98 would have been the more logical play in the 2nd game but the 2.58 looks like marginally better value even if I'm conceding a corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 296 bets +26% yield. :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 296 bets +26% yield. SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE me vs spreads these bets ALL 28% 111.15 total corner ests 2 298 bets 27% 80.73 -0.5% v 5.2% 50.0% 53.0% wins 26% 51.12 average error 0.0% 3.4% level 25% 22.30 2.78 v 2.82 50.0% 43.6% losses 24% 0 av absolute error 56.80 2124.85 staked 23% -3.57 0.06 v 0.43 -32.80 503.75 profit 22% -20.95 -4.69 0.68 profit / 1pt stake 21% -38.61 sell & buy yields -58% 24% yield 28% & 3% 47.25 record win months with profit -44.80 record loss 14 out of 16 max wins & losses in a row this week this month sell bets 80% 6 & 5 bets 3 5 buy bets 20% profit -21.60 -14.10 top league yields stake 68.00 75.50 SpIn bets 75% italy 66% 12 bets yield -32% -19% Extrabets 25% e2 42% 8 bets spain 40% 93 bets champ 39% 14 bets SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 28/8/10 Chelsea Stoke 11.00 u 3 7 12.00 28/8/10 Tottenham Wigan 11.80 u 4 23 -44.80 an all time record loss :puke chin up though - this system will win in the long term. :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skycity Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Well I bet total gol 2.5+ for the spurs wigan game and corner 11.5-. Both went the opposite way, damn it! :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zapbrann81 Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Fairly typical! I was on holiday for the first games of the season, and return to strike my first ever real bets on this system this weekend, only to see the worst ever loss come home to roost....... Nightmare! :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. The stop loss will make the spurs game -40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Not with extrabet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Mine stopped at 21.8 so 40pt loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Thanking my stars that SPIN did,nt have the market & extrebet dont want me any more.....Chin up muppet i'm with you:ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Unlucky, but as you say this is just a short term blip and it'll be fine in the long run. Tiny profit for me on the fixed odds so a case of fortune favouring the timid this week. There'll be plenty of weeks where it's the other way round though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Not with extrabet. mine stopped at 21.8 for a 40 point loss. my extrabet account was stop loss by default. As you are only selling now, is it not better to make a stop loss of ten as mandatory? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenno99 Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Mine stopped at 21.8 so 40pt loss +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Don't worry, the law of averages says that a result like this is bound to surface from time to time - it's still a lower loss that your largest win though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. unlucky muppet :hopefingers crossed for the next game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. yep , you're right Clay et al. mine stopped at a ten corner loss too. you learn something every day. i will adjust the figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE me vs spreads these bets ALL 28% 102.71 total corner ests 1 298 bets 27% 72.47 -0.5% v 5.2% 0.0% 53.0% wins 26% 43.04 average error 0.0% 3.4% level 25% 14.39 2.78 v 2.82 100.0% 43.6% losses 24% 0 av absolute error 40.00 2120.05 staked 23% -8.37 0.06 v 0.43 -40.00 508.55 profit 22% -25.75 -10.00 0.69 profit / 1pt stake 21% -43.41 sell & buy yields -100% 24% yield 28% & 3% 47.25 record win months with profit -40.00 record loss 14 out of 16 max wins & losses in a row this week this month sell bets 80% 6 & 5 bets 3 5 buy bets 20% profit -16.80 -9.30 top league yields stake 63.20 70.70 SpIn bets 75% italy 66% 12 bets yield -27% -13% Extrabets 25% e2 42% 8 bets spain 40% 93 bets champ 39% 14 bets SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 28/8/10 Tottenham Wigan 11.80 u 4 23 -40.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Yeah, it was just unlucky. You can't win them all. These were my first bets also, but better luck next time :hope Any bets for today, muppet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. nothing Sunday - i'm hoping they price up the MLS at 03:00 Uk time Monday morning though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Regarding stop loss, how exactly does it work? If, as I understand correctly, it settles the bet if the loss becomes more than a particular figure, what's to stop someone setting the stop loss as minimal as possible (e.g. 1 corner instead of 10 or so) so that they hardly have any loses? Sorry for the newbie question. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Regarding stop loss, how exactly does it work? If, as I understand correctly, it settles the bet if the loss becomes more than a particular figure, what's to stop someone setting the stop loss as minimal as possible (e.g. 1 corner instead of 10 or so) so that they hardly have any loses? Sorry for the newbie question. :unsure The name is a bit misleading. Its more of a limit set by the spread company, that caps your loss and your maximum profit at 10 corners. You only have the choice to turn it on or off when you open your account with them. So if you do more selling than buying you want the stop loss on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. The name is a bit misleading. Its more of a limit set by the spread company' date=' that caps your loss [b']and your maximum profit at 10 corners. You only have the choice to turn it on or off when you open your account with them. So if you do more selling than buying you want the stop loss on. Thanks clay. And can you set the stop loss at different values depending on the bets? So if you are selling corners it could be at 10 corners but if your selling total goal minutes it could be something different e.g 75 minutes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. the company dictate the losses for each market. here are extra's http://www.extrabet.com/dealing/sport/content/sites/xtb/en_GB/stop-losses.html eg cricket test runs = 250 ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. I was always under the impression that my account wasn't subject to any stop losses, being an old IG credit account. Nothing on the site to suggest any such differences apply though. Might have to email them on that point if I can find anything to confirm it. Might make a difference where I buy player goal minutes or any bets with a big potential upside! I used to like the Cantor Sport account where the stop losses were just that, i.e. they didn't apply to your winnings! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Unlucky over the weekend Muppet. I'll follow with interest this year. I'm looking at trying to get my spreads on bookings up again. The difference between bookings and corners is the influence of outside factors (Namely the ref) which needs to be factored in. Can I just ask how / what you calculate your % differences (vs spread, absolute difference etc) in the top right of your tables Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 31, 2010 Author Share Posted August 31, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. sure K, from my test sample i calculated there would be 2517 corners, the spreads said 2661 and there were actually 2529. i was 12 under (or 0.5%) and the spreads were 132 over (5.2%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 4, 2010 Author Share Posted September 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Apologies for the format. 12pm saturday so be quick! Mk dons, 3 unit sell with extrabet or Spreadex at 10.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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