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That Foreign Guy

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About That Foreign Guy

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 07/17/1980
  1. Re: Starting strategy to improve bank Learn how to best use signup bonuses. That should get you up to a couple hundred pretty easily.
  2. Re: Odds evolution question Player 2 has a better chance to win in both examples and a slightly better chance of winning in example 2. If opening lines were more accurate than closing lines in any significant subset of cases intelligent bettors would bet the near closing line back to the opening line and therefore the closing line would be about as efficient as the opening line.
  3. Re: Historical NFL Price Data You can get a decent estimation of money line (head to head) from the pointspread.
  4. Re: Historical NFL Price Data I have the last four or five years of closing line (pointspread only I think) sitting around my hard drive somewhere. LMK if this helps.
  5. Re: MUCK System - 40 bets , 67.5% Win , +61.94% Yield Luckily I was only following you on the last one yesterday so you're 100% so far with me ;)
  6. Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield Thanks. By the way, if you take U10.5 in the Dortmund game at Bwin @1.75 you have a win on exactly 10. Don't know how much lineshopping you are doing or the value of exactly 10 corners but that seems superior to me.
  7. Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield Is it U11 with 11 as a push or U11, 11 loses? I'll see if I can track down some old corner odds for you, who knows what I have magpied away.
  8. Re: Just won £50 quid on Roulette with this system... Your sample size is too small. But yeah you show one of the problems of martingale. http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html I'll summarise: NO STAKING SYSTEM CAN TURN A -EV BET IN TO A +EV BET absolutely not, no way never, you would actually be more likely to successfully build a perpetual motion machine. Besides, real men reverse martingale. Rudyard Kipling says so! "If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never
  9. Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. Because blind betting draws is not profitable it does not mean that betting on a particular draw is not +EV. I'd be willing to bet that betting all home teams or all away teams or all favourites or all underdogs would also have been unprofitable.
  10. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 296 bets +26% yield. I often wind up "cheering" for a 0 - 0 it's the one correct score price I find value in (and am able to model much easier than any other). Mind you when I say cheering I actually mean wandering round the supermarket completely ignoring the game. Nice start to the season anyway even if I didn't get on the tips. :(
  11. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 287 bets +23% yield You're becoming popular. Two of those lines have moved already.
  12. Re: Help needed How are you going to get punters, pay for payment processing, web hosting, etc without money? I hope your business plan doesn't involve running like Jesus on your first weekend because Murphy's law applies to new business more than anything else. I don't want to sound like I'm making fun of you, it's intended as helpful advice but I've been through the startup process with a couple gaming companies and money is vital. You'd be amazed how much money you burn through before you even try to open your doors.
  13. Re: Rugby Quarb System It sounds like he's calculating fair %s from the mean bookie prices (convert the prices to percent and then divide by the total). That's the subjective probability of winning. The difference between that and the outlier's probability of winning is the edge part of the kelly equation.
  14. Re: Help needed If you just want the calculation function to work out returns etc on your own betting it's do-able in excel. If you're talking about becoming a bookmaker then yeah you need to look in to software providers, coding it all from scratch is going to be harder and more expensive for a worse product. I haven't had any direct experience, but know people who say Finsoft are good and they do have some big clients.
  15. Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 They seem to have taken it down or I can't find it. Either way :(
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