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lorenzo.

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About lorenzo.

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/10/1988
  1. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Well ... a bit of minus here. Brazil Serie A will start pretty soon, so we'll have more picks soon.
  2. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System I'm going to add Norweigan league (Tippeligaen) and drop MLS. 2 games and 4 picks for the coming days from Norway. 11.07 Brann - Stromsgodset (Tippeligaen): Pick Brann +0.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle) Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.55 (Pinnacle) 12.07 Valerenga - Rosenborg (Tippeligaen): Pick Rosenborg +0.5 @ 1.61 (Pinnacle) Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle)
  3. Re: Europa League - 1st Qualifying Round - Thursday 4th July Cheers for the info, but for the same reason you pointed out about last season, do they really want to go very far this season in EL etc? Or do they want to concentrate on getting back to the top flight in Norway? If that would be the case then maybe they will not push that hard today as well? Just my thoughts ... I have actually no idea what their plan is. I jus started to wonder about that..
  4. Re: Belgium > Jupiler Pro League > 2013/14 Very nice tip, Bossie. Thanks a lot.
  5. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System You are totally right, lunatism :D Sorry for the late answer, haven't had too much time to deal with betting lately. I'll do my best with all the analyzing etc, but only as much as I have time :D
  6. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Just finished backtesting Brazil Serie A THIS season, so still definately not a big enough sample size to come to any conclusions, but the results were very good (strike rate 51.8%, average odds 3.26, yield 64.3%, ROI 72% - so started with 50 points and 56 bets later had 86 points)
  7. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System You have a point there. And I was thinking about MLS ... they have play-off system, so even a lot of "league" games are actually play-offs and I don't like that really. I'm probably gonna drop MLS and continue with Brazil. But since Brazil Serie A is going on a 1.5 month break, I will backtest this league a little bit (only this season though, since I will have to manually enter the results). And then I'll try to backtest some of the top European leagues as you suggested, but as I told you, I'm no excel expert and I don't see myself backtesting all the leag
  8. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System And I haven't looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games. It all would take too much time at the moment. Maybe I will at later stage. At the moment I will just continue doing it the way I have so far.
  9. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Yes, I know SoccerWidows site as well. But it was too complicated for me :D Too much math. Not using poisson either. 30 games is just random idea. I have been betting for years (mostly for fun) and always tried to figure out some kind of system. Never did successfully though :D I have tried 10, 20, 30 games etc. H2H only, combined to home/away forms etc. As I said before, I am not a big math dude nor excel expert. The calculations here are fairly simple, otherwise I wouldn't manage to do it :D But I will not reveal the whole system, because if (and that'
  10. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Yes, only results. If the last 30 games include lower/higher league games then I just skip this game - different level, different results. There is no certain year limit on H2H games, but I prefer not to go further than 8-10 years. And so far I have included cup H2H games as well as league ones ;)
  11. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Thanks for the excel advice, lunatism. And sorry. I thought I can't edit posts with picks AFTER the events had taken place. But good to know, I'll stay away from editing them. About backtesting ... I only backtested it on 42 games just because I'm no excel expert and entering all the data to the spreadsheets etc takes me a long time. Results for Serie A were awesome, MLS not too good. But example of 42 games isn't obviously enough to make any kind of conclusions, so for starters I'll keep on going with MLS as well since it is only paper trailing. Later I m
  12. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Very nice picks from Serie A, MLS was a let down though... Still: Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 52.1 units ROI: 4.2% No of bets: 10 Won: 6 Lost: 3 Void: 1 Strike rate: 60% Total Staked: 11 units Profit: 2.1 units Yield: 18.9% Average odds: 2.19 If someone would be kind enough to tell me how to copy data from excel spreadsheet to here, I would appriciate it a lot ;)
  13. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System And we are off with a winner. I'm gonna share 3 more picks for MLS, the Brazil picks will come later or tomorrow. 01.06 Chicago - LA Galaxy (MLS): Pick Chicago +0 @ 2.21 (SBObet) 01.06 Toronto - Columbus (MLS): Pick Columbus +0.5 @ 1.81 (188bet) 01.06 Dallas - San Jose (MLS): Pick Draw @ 3.61 (5dimes) -edit- More bets 01.06 Cruzeiro - Flamengo (Serie A): Pick Cruzeiro @ 1.7 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Gremio - Palmeiras (Serie A): Pick Palmeiras +1 @ 1.67 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Sao Paolo - Atletico Mineiro (Serie A): Pick Sao Paolo @ 2.15 (Marathon Bet) 01.
  14. Hi, guys! I game up with a little system. I am not very good with math or all kind of formulas, but I'll give it a try. I haven't back tested it much, only some random rounds of football here and there. Since now, I'm gonna PAPER TRAIL it here in SP. About the system - It is based on the last 30 league games for both teams (last 30 home games for the home team and vice versa). Plus last 5-10 H2H (depends how many H2H they have). H2H games go the same way - only the games played on the home team stadium. I will calculate "my odds" for the games and compaire them to bookies odds and if there
  15. Re: Bundesliga > 15th - 17th February Hamburger SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach HSV has been pretty inconsistent this season winning strong opponents sometimes and then failing to win weaker ones etc. But at home they have been quite strong last 2 months or so. Borussia has been woeful on the road. They are a typical home team getting most of the points at home soil. In the table the 2 teams are next to each other and seperated just by 1 point. HSV is missing GK Adler and two central defenders Mancienne and Bruma. The good news is that Badelj is back and he has a lot to offer for defen
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