Announcements
*** New Last Man Standing Competition - Win up to £1500 Annually - See Competitions Forum ***
*** July Competition Winners: Well done to Pete1971 (NAPS), Barnsley Chop (KO Cup), bluemal (Goodwood) & Rivrd (Poker) ***

lorenzo.

Regular Members
  • Content Count

    176
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About lorenzo.

  • Rank
    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/10/1988
  1. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Well ... a bit of minus here. Brazil Serie A will start pretty soon, so we'll have more picks soon.
  2. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System I'm going to add Norweigan league (Tippeligaen) and drop MLS. 2 games and 4 picks for the coming days from Norway. 11.07 Brann - Stromsgodset (Tippeligaen): Pick Brann +0.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle) Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.55 (Pinnacle) 12.07 Valerenga - Rosenborg (Tippeligaen): Pick Rosenborg +0.5 @ 1.61 (Pinnacle) Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle)
  3. Re: Europa League - 1st Qualifying Round - Thursday 4th July Cheers for the info, but for the same reason you pointed out about last season, do they really want to go very far this season in EL etc? Or do they want to concentrate on getting back to the top flight in Norway? If that would be the case then maybe they will not push that hard today as well? Just my thoughts ... I have actually no idea what their plan is. I jus started to wonder about that..
  4. Re: Belgium > Jupiler Pro League > 2013/14 Very nice tip, Bossie. Thanks a lot.
  5. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System You are totally right, lunatism :D Sorry for the late answer, haven't had too much time to deal with betting lately. I'll do my best with all the analyzing etc, but only as much as I have time :D
  6. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Just finished backtesting Brazil Serie A THIS season, so still definately not a big enough sample size to come to any conclusions, but the results were very good (strike rate 51.8%, average odds 3.26, yield 64.3%, ROI 72% - so started with 50 points and 56 bets later had 86 points)
  7. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System You have a point there. And I was thinking about MLS ... they have play-off system, so even a lot of "league" games are actually play-offs and I don't like that really. I'm probably gonna drop MLS and continue with Brazil. But since Brazil Serie A is going on a 1.5 month break, I will backtest this league a little bit (only this season though, since I will have to manually enter the results). And then I'll try to backtest some of the top European leagues as you suggested, but as I told you, I'm no excel expert and I don't see myself backtesting all the leagues etc since I don't see how it can be fast (i cant just copy the results from football-data.co.uk ... have to sort some out and for every game I have to make a new spreadsheet etc) But I'll give it a try anyway. Portland lost to Vancouver 3-4 so that's another bad result in USA. Small sample size, but I'm gonna drop MLS already. Last 2 rounds of Brazil Serie A has produced 12 picks with 10 winners (1 push /1 lost) while MLS has produced 10 picks with 1 winner. I think the play-off system may be wrong for the system anyway.
  8. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System And I haven't looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games. It all would take too much time at the moment. Maybe I will at later stage. At the moment I will just continue doing it the way I have so far.
  9. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Yes, I know SoccerWidows site as well. But it was too complicated for me :D Too much math. Not using poisson either. 30 games is just random idea. I have been betting for years (mostly for fun) and always tried to figure out some kind of system. Never did successfully though :D I have tried 10, 20, 30 games etc. H2H only, combined to home/away forms etc. As I said before, I am not a big math dude nor excel expert. The calculations here are fairly simple, otherwise I wouldn't manage to do it :D But I will not reveal the whole system, because if (and that's a really big IF) it will be more or less successful, it would lose it's edge in the end. But thanks for the interest :)
  10. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Yes, only results. If the last 30 games include lower/higher league games then I just skip this game - different level, different results. There is no certain year limit on H2H games, but I prefer not to go further than 8-10 years. And so far I have included cup H2H games as well as league ones ;)
  11. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Thanks for the excel advice, lunatism. And sorry. I thought I can't edit posts with picks AFTER the events had taken place. But good to know, I'll stay away from editing them. About backtesting ... I only backtested it on 42 games just because I'm no excel expert and entering all the data to the spreadsheets etc takes me a long time. Results for Serie A were awesome, MLS not too good. But example of 42 games isn't obviously enough to make any kind of conclusions, so for starters I'll keep on going with MLS as well since it is only paper trailing. Later I may drop MLS if the results continue to let us down. Why US and Brazil? Pretty much because they are active atm and I have always kept an eye on these leagues in addition to European top leagues. No other reason ;) -edit- Lol. Editing again. You asked what kind of results I am expecting? The unofficial yield is 34.8% and ROI 12.5% after 52 picks. But that is obviously not gonna stay like that :D I would be happy with a long-term yield between 5-10%
  12. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Very nice picks from Serie A, MLS was a let down though... Still: Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 52.1 units ROI: 4.2% No of bets: 10 Won: 6 Lost: 3 Void: 1 Strike rate: 60% Total Staked: 11 units Profit: 2.1 units Yield: 18.9% Average odds: 2.19 If someone would be kind enough to tell me how to copy data from excel spreadsheet to here, I would appriciate it a lot ;)
  13. Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System And we are off with a winner. I'm gonna share 3 more picks for MLS, the Brazil picks will come later or tomorrow. 01.06 Chicago - LA Galaxy (MLS): Pick Chicago +0 @ 2.21 (SBObet) 01.06 Toronto - Columbus (MLS): Pick Columbus +0.5 @ 1.81 (188bet) 01.06 Dallas - San Jose (MLS): Pick Draw @ 3.61 (5dimes) -edit- More bets 01.06 Cruzeiro - Flamengo (Serie A): Pick Cruzeiro @ 1.7 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Gremio - Palmeiras (Serie A): Pick Palmeiras +1 @ 1.67 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Sao Paolo - Atletico Mineiro (Serie A): Pick Sao Paolo @ 2.15 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Corinthians - Botafogo (Serie A): Pick Botafogo +1 @ 1.71 (Pinnacle) and Botafogo +0.5 @ 2.14 (Pinnacle) 02.06 Portland - Vancouver (MLS): Pick Portland +0 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle)
  14. Hi, guys! I game up with a little system. I am not very good with math or all kind of formulas, but I'll give it a try. I haven't back tested it much, only some random rounds of football here and there. Since now, I'm gonna PAPER TRAIL it here in SP. About the system - It is based on the last 30 league games for both teams (last 30 home games for the home team and vice versa). Plus last 5-10 H2H (depends how many H2H they have). H2H games go the same way - only the games played on the home team stadium. I will calculate "my odds" for the games and compaire them to bookies odds and if there is a positive difference I will pick the game. I do not check team news or suspensions etc - only statistics. At the moment I'm doing only Brazil Serie A and MLS, I may add Norweigan league (depends how much time I have). If the system goes well and I have the stamina to go longer, I'll add European big leagues next season as well. Level stakes Starting bank: 50 pts Every bet 1 pt Yesterday I didn't have time to create a topic here, but the first results were very good in Serie A. Then again, 7 bets do not show anything, but it just gave me a better mood to start the thread here :D Anyway, here we go: 31.05 Seattle - Real Salt Lake (MLS): Pick Draw @ 3.82 (Pinnacle) 30.05 Bahia - Santos (Serie A): Pick Santos +0.5 @ 1.71 (Pinnacle)
  15. Re: Bundesliga > 15th - 17th February Hamburger SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach HSV has been pretty inconsistent this season winning strong opponents sometimes and then failing to win weaker ones etc. But at home they have been quite strong last 2 months or so. Borussia has been woeful on the road. They are a typical home team getting most of the points at home soil. In the table the 2 teams are next to each other and seperated just by 1 point. HSV is missing GK Adler and two central defenders Mancienne and Bruma. The good news is that Badelj is back and he has a lot to offer for defense and also to offenive side of the game. In attack HSV doesn’t have any problems, they have great talent there and goals are no problems. Borussia JUST played European League game against Lazio drawing 3-3. Last week they also drawed 3-3 against Leverkusen. They clearly have defensive problems while the attack is strong. The problem for Borussia is defense – it just isn’t working at the moment. Now I don’t know what the coach decides: he either plays the team who played just 40 hours ago or lets some subtitutes to play. In any way, Borussia is weakened and this is a good chance for HSV to grab the 3 points. My pick: HSV AH -0.5 @ 1.98 (3 / 5 units)