Holy Grail Total Corners

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 211 bets +18% yield No value. So no bet.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 211 bets +18% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
12/12/09	Chelsea	Everton	11.10	u	3
12/12/09	Valencia	Real Madrid	11.00	o	1

both extrabet

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 211 bets +18% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
13/12/09	Ath Madrid	Villarreal	11.80	u	1
13/12/09	Sp Gijon	Sevilla	10.75	u	1
13/12/09	Sampdoria	Roma	10.75	o	3

athMadrid = extrabet

[a1ehouse]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 211 bets +18% yield :clap good picks this w/e muppet

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 211 bets +18% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM				YIELD CHANGE
these bets	ALL			23%	51.32
5	216	bets		22%	34.86
60.0%	50.9%	wins		21%	18.82
0.0%	2.8%	level		20%	3.18
40.0%	46.3%	losses		19%	0
28.10	1240.55	staked		18%	-8.31
23.60	239.35	profit		17%	-18.94
2.62	0.56	profit / 1pt stake		16%	-29.75
84%	19%	yield		15%	-40.75
	33.75	record win
	-40.00	record loss
	this week	this month
bets	0	9
profit	0.00	28.10
stake	0.00	40.10
yield	#DIV/0!	70%
SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
12/12/09	Chelsea	Everton	11.10	u	3	8	9.30
12/12/09	Valencia	Real Madrid	11.00	o	1	9	-2.00
13/12/09	Ath Madrid	Villarreal	11.80	u	1	8	3.80
13/12/09	Sp Gijon	Sevilla	10.75	u	1	11	-0.25
13/12/09	Sampdoria	Roma	10.75	o	3	15	12.75

BOOM! not had one of those in aaages. 70% yield for the month - that's better!

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 211 bets +18% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
16/12/09	Tottenham	Man City	11.50	u	1

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 216 bets +19% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM				YIELD CHANGE
these bets	ALL			23%	50.82
1	217	bets		22%	34.36
100.0%	51.2%	wins		21%	18.32
0.0%	2.8%	level		20%	2.68
0.0%	46.1%	losses		19%	0
0.50	1241.05	staked		18%	-8.65
0.50	239.85	profit		17%	-19.29
0.50	0.56	profit / 1pt stake		16%	-30.11
100%	19%	yield		15%	-41.11
	33.75	record win
	-40.00	record loss
	this week	this month
bets	1	10
profit	0.50	28.60
stake	0.50	40.60
yield	100%	70%
SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
16/12/09	Tottenham	Man City	11.50	u	1	11	0.50

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 217 bets +19% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
19/12/09	Fiorentina	Milan	11.20	u	1

this is it for Saturday, with Spreadex.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 217 bets +19% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
20/12/09	La Coruna	Valencia	10.80	u	3

extrabet

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 217 bets +19% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
21/12/09	Wigan	Bolton	11.20	o	1

SpIn

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 217 bets +19% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
19/12/09	Fiorentina	Milan	11.20	u	1	POSTPONED

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 217 bets +19% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM				YIELD CHANGE
these bets	ALL			24%	53.31
1	218	bets		23%	36.42
100.0%	51.4%	wins		22%	19.96
0.0%	2.8%	level		21%	3.92
0.0%	45.9%	losses		20%	0
14.40	1255.45	staked		19%	-7.90
14.40	254.25	profit		18%	-18.56
3.60	0.59	profit / 1pt stake		17%	-29.40
100%	20%	yield		16%	-40.43
	33.75	record win
	-40.00	record loss
	this week	this month
bets	0	11
profit	0.00	43.00
stake	0.00	55.00
yield	#DIV/0!	78%
SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
20/12/09	LaCoruna	Valencia	10.80	u	3	6	14.40

[barrhead73]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield :clap No boom?

[Dumyat]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield Great thread Muppet! ********** Is the profit count correct? Just after the traumatic Huddersfield and Southampton games it was 192 bets with 223.85 profit. There were then 10 bets updated in post 582 - 202 bets and 222.75 profit. Clarky pointed out the Stoke v Portsmouth total was 5 corners wrong on a 1pt stake. So the profit should have been corrected to 217.75. In post 586 it is 211.25. So that seems to be 6.5 too low. If that was a mistake then currently it should be 260.75. ********* When betting with Spreadex - is there a stop loss/win option at 10 corners?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
21/12/09	Wigan	Bolton	11.20	o	1	POSTPONED

That pretty much secures the 20% yield for Christmas morning. thanks Barrhead for the reminder. BOOM!

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield

Great thread Muppet! ********** Is the profit count correct? Just after the traumatic Huddersfield and Southampton games it was 192 bets with 223.85 profit. There were then 10 bets updated in post 582 - 202 bets and 222.75 profit. Clarky pointed out the Stoke v Portsmouth total was 5 corners wrong on a 1pt stake. So the profit should have been corrected to 217.75. In post 586 it is 211.25. So that seems to be 6.5 too low. If that was a mistake then currently it should be 260.75. ********* When betting with Spreadex - is there a stop loss/win option at 10 corners?

Dumyat, not sure what happened with those posts - don't think i updated a figure somewhere since the stoke/pompey error, but these are the matches since Soton/Brighton and you can see that the final profit is spot on.

			spread		stake per			running
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit	profit
15/11/09	Southampton	Brighton	11.5	u	3	17	-16.50	223.85
21/11/09	Liverpool	Man City	11.75	u	3	10	5.25	229.1
21/11/09	Man United	Everton	11.3	u	3	17	-17.10	212
21/11/09	Fiorentina	Parma	10	u	1	15	-5.00	207
21/11/09	Real Madrid	Santander	11.25	u	3	7	12.75	219.75
21/11/09	Ath Bilbao	Barcelona	10.25	u	4	12	-7.00	212.75
22/11/09	Juventus	Udinese	10.75	o	1	8	-2.75	210
22/11/09	Malaga	Zaragoza	10.5	o	1	10	-0.50	209.5
22/11/09	Osasuna	Valencia	11	u	1	9	2.00	211.5
22/11/09	Stoke	Portsmouth	11.25	u	1	8	-3.25	208.25
22/11/09	Bolton	Blackburn	11	o	1	14	3.00	211.25
29/11/09	Everton	Liverpool	11	u	3	10	3.00	214.25
29/11/09	Arsenal	Chelsea	11	o	1	7	-4.00	210.25
28/11/09	Valencia	Mallorca	11.25	u	3	13	-5.25	205
28/11/09	Sevilla	Malaga	11.5	u	3	9	7.50	212.5
30/11/09	Blackpool	Preston	11.75	u	1	13	-1.25	211.25
2/12/09	Xerez	Barcelona	10.75	u	3	12	-3.75	207.5
5/12/09	Real Madrid	Almeria	11.5	u	3	11	1.50	209
5/12/09	La Coruna	Barcelona	10.75	u	3	10	2.25	211.25
6/12/09	Schalke 04	Hertha	10.5	o	3	12	4.50	215.75
12/12/09	Chelsea	Everton	11.1	u	3	8	9.30	225.05
12/12/09	Valencia	RealMadrid	11	o	1	9	-2.00	223.05
13/12/09	Ath Madrid	Villarreal	11.8	u	1	8	3.80	226.85
13/12/09	Sp Gijon	Sevilla	10.75	u	1	11	-0.25	226.6
13/12/09	Sampdoria	Roma	10.75	o	3	15	12.75	239.35
16/12/09	Tottenham	Man City	11.5	u	1	11	0.50	239.85
20/12/09	La Coruna	Valencia	10.8	u	3	6	14.40	254.25

In terms of stop loss option on Spreadex - I am not sure - it is the first bet i placed with them I think, and it got voided! Most firms do a stop loss/win but his is self imposed in the settings menu.

[Dumyat]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield Muppet - the mistake is in that Stoke v Portsmouth game. When you corrected the total from 3 to 8 you made it a loser. It was a sell at 11.25 so it wins rather than loses 3.25 - which is where the 6.50 swing comes in - so you are doing slightly better than you thought! I dont like to use SPREADEX since I cant see how to get a stop loss/win on spread bets - which is available with Spin and IG. The open ended horror is what turns people off spreadbetting. OK say 40 corners on a sell is pretty unlikely but I'd rather it just wasn't an issue - so I'll use the firms which provide that security.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield Wow! You do have sharp eyes! Thanks mate, that makes the yield 21% now! Stats update tomorrow.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM				YIELD CHANGE
these bets	ALL			25%	62.03
0	218	bets		24%	44.81
0.0%	51.8%	wins		23%	28.03
0.0%	2.8%	level		22%	11.68
0.0%	45.4%	losses		21%	0
0.00	1255.45	staked		20%	-2.81
0.00	260.75	profit		19%	-13.34
#DIV/0!	0.60	profit / 1pt stake		18%	-24.04
0%	21%	yield		17%	-34.93
	33.75	record win
	-40.00	record loss
	this week	this month
bets	0	11
profit	0.00	43.00
stake	0.00	55.00
yield	#DIV/0!	78%

CORRECTION!

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
22/11/09	Stoke	Portsmouth	11.25	u	1	8	3.25

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield If i exclude all the 1 unit stakes: total bets goes down 50% yield goes up from 21% to 26% total staked goes down by 20% total profit only goes down 4% i would be making half the amount of bets, with roughly the same profit but more yield. i suppose it's a matter of efficiency vs profit. Thanks to Kanga for this thought. :ok Any comments?

[ardman123]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield The results you have posted do seem to suggest that the 1pt bets are not adding much to the system and just adding more risk with very little gain. Have you looked at other more complex staking plans based on your probability and the spread firms price to see if this could improve the yield and profits further still.

[a1ehouse]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

If i exclude all the 1 unit stakes: total bets goes down 50% yield goes up from 21% to 26% total staked goes down by 20% total profit only goes down 4% i would be making half the amount of bets, with roughly the same profit but more yield. i suppose it's a matter of efficiency vs profit. Thanks to Kanga for this thought. :ok Any comments?

My comments from http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/total-corner-spreads-holy-grail-218-bets-21-yield-80745/index2.html#post1383698 still apply bud. Doubling your bets for 5% doesn't seem worth the risk. Can any further analysis be done on the 1 units e.g. league/last 6 corners/goal scored or conceded?

[Hodgey]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield Just read the whole thread - brilliant stuff muppet, well done. :clap I've never spread bet before but am considering having a go from the new year. Got a couple of questions if you don't mind: Do the spreads change in the run up to the match? Could you post your latest table of results broken down by stakes please, 1pt, 2pt etc Well done again, keep up the good work. :ok

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

Doubling your bets for 5% doesn't seem worth the risk.

ale, if i get rid of the 1 unit bets, my yield goes UP!? I would rather not start getting into league analysis etc yet, i have looked at it but don't think that i have enough data yet. (just a whetter - Spain's yield is 42% from 65 matches!) I do think that it is intrinsically important that, if this is The Grail, then my estimate must be better than the bookies ('value') rather than analysing subsets and mining for patterns. The 'stake' is directly linked to this value estimate and so can ne tinkered with, but i don't think that looking at 'last 6 matches', leagues etc is any benefit with such a small sample. Hodgey, the spreads rarely change in the lead up, even if Spin and Extrabet are 0.5 corner out in their prices, only rarely do they shift to meet up. attached are the 218 bets to date. from this data, analysis by stake:

unit bet	bets	profit	staked	yield
1	101	18.30	263.50	+7%
2	38	68.10	222.90	+31%
3	66	135.75	556.65	+24%
4	9	14.00	152.00	+9%
5	3	40.00	45.00	+89%
6	0	0.00	0.00	0%
7	1	-15.40	15.40	-100%

conv_1241.xls

[a1ehouse]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

ale' date=' if i [b']get rid of the 1 unit bets, my yield goes UP!?

Oh yes, so it puts you in a worse position! Still a 7% yield for any system is pretty good imo. Speaking to Kanga a while back and something he said hit home. Went along the lines of better to sell 100 widgets regularly at £5 than 5 widgets rarely for £100 or something like that! He can explain it better than me but its about turnover. Did you do any more work on the fixed odd multiples?

[a1ehouse]

[Kanga]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

Speaking to Kanga a while back and something he said hit home. Went along the lines of better to sell 100 widgets regularly at £5 than 5 widgets rarely for £100 or something like that! He can explain it better than me but its about turnover.

That's a nice compliment A1e, Thanks ..... Just to clarify for the thread all I said was based on the principle shops use in there sales strategy ..... a shop owner would rather the profits from the turnover of sales of 50 widgets at £10 than .... 20 widgets at £20. BUT (and just to complicate things a little now) in muppets system the stake amounts aren't equal ....... the staking can also be seen as a confidence indicator, in the sense that it shows how close the spreads are to the corners he predicts. What is impressive is that there seems to be a very close correlation between the difference predicted and the profits shown which is exactly how it should be and confidence boosting :ok I guess it's each to there own regarding wether to back the 1 pointers or not as a profit is still shown, but personally speaking I would rather this proves to work over double the amount of leagues then i'd stick to 3 pointers and over for the same amount of bets :loon

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield thanks guys - it's great to have thoughts and ideas from people. here i split the data (a few more matches included before i proofed on here) into groups of 39 matches by 'error'.

decile	bets	av error	profit	staked	yield
1	39	0.03	-21.70	137.80	-16%
2	39	0.09	11.50	112.30	10%
3	39	0.14	40.50	103.90	39%
4	39	0.20	-19.75	124.85	-16%
5	39	0.28	-14.50	99.30	-15%
6	39	0.34	15.60	106.40	15%
7	39	0.44	20.70	95.30	22%
8	39	0.55	6.25	114.75	5%
9	39	0.70	55.85	124.15	45%
10	40	1.05	20.10	118.20	17%

[Dumyat]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield Muppet indicated earlier in the thread what was the expected gain for each staking unit. stake of 3 = out by at least one whole corner stake of 2 = 0.75-1 of a corner out stake of 1 = 0.5-0.75 of a corner out So you can multiply the number of bets times the expected gain and compare to actual. 1 unit = 101 bets = expected gain 50.5-75.75 : actual gain 18.3 2 unit = 38 bets = expected gain (28.5-38*2) 57-76 : actual gain 68.1 3 unit = 66 bets = expected gain (66-82.5*3) 198-248 : actual gain 135.75 over 3 = 13 bets = expected gain (19.5*4.5) 88 : actual gain 38.6 Not sure what can conclude from above - does that mean the three+ pointers underperforming what is expected of them. Maybe sample still isn't big enough since all the points categories (other than 2 pts) are not that close to expected.

[Hodgey]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

Hodgey, the spreads rarely change in the lead up, even if Spin and Extrabet are 0.5 corner out in their prices, only rarely do they shift to meet up. attached are the 218 bets to date. from this data, analysis by stake:

unit bet		bets	profit		staked	yield
1	101		18.30	263.50		+7%
2		38	68.10		222.90	+31%
3	66		135.75	556.65		+24%
4		9	14.00		152.00	+9%
5	3		40.00	45.00		+89%
6		0	0.00		0.00	0%
7	1		-15.40	15.40		-100%

Thanks mate. :)