muppet77 Posted November 6, 2009 Author Share Posted November 6, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 6/11/09 Leverkusen Ein Frankfurt 10.25 o 1 6/11/09 Derby Coventry 11.50 o 2 7/11/09 Hearts Hibernian 10.50 o 4 7/11/09 Barcelona Mallorca 10.70 u 1 7/11/09 Atalanta Juventus 10.30 u 1 just added Friday matches into regular format (see earlier proofing) Hearts - Spin other two - Extrabet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 8/11/09 Sevilla Villarreal 11.50 u 4 8/11/09 Inter Roma 11.00 o 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 33% 49.63 5 187 bets 32% 33.72 80.0% 52.4% wins 31% 18.27 0.0% 3.2% level 30% 3.25 20.0% 44.4% losses 29% 0 30.25 1040.15 staked 28% -6.31 21.75 304.55 profit 27% -14.52 1.45 0.83 profit / 1pt stake 26% -22.85 72% 29% yield 25% -31.32 33.75 record win -18.00 record loss SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 6/11/09 Leverkusen Ein Frankfurt 10.25 o 1 6 -4.25 6/11/09 Derby Coventry 11.50 o 2 13 3.00 7/11/09 Hearts Hibernian 10.50 o 4 14 14.00 7/11/09 Barcelona Mallorca 10.70 u 1 6 4.70 7/11/09 Atalanta Juventus 10.30 u 1 6 4.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 9/11/09 Liverpool Birmingham 11.80 u 1 with extrabet. hoping to hit the 30% yield today or tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzfish Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Hi Muppet, Great results so far; congratulations. Is there any chance you can send me a private message with your email address as I would like to send you an email. I'd really like to discuss a system that I have developed and also ask a couple of questions about yours if possible? Kind regards JF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Hi Muppet, Nice progress! It's becoming more an more intresting...I hope this trends persist in the future. Your model must include some vital infomation that the market doesn't account for...to me such a high yield looks almost unrealistic, but I hope you'll prove me wrong ;) cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Thanks rob. nearly 200 bets now and going strong! I believe this is the grail and may consider the implications - will the spreads change if people follow en mass? Jazz you don't have enough posts to p mail. Discuss it here - this is a great forum with a wealth of brains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield hi muppet, i am intrigued by your thread, well done mate. im tryin to workout how places like extrabet workout their corner values. how can extrabet put on the market 11.8-12.3 for liverpool v birmingham when the last 10 games at home for liverpool the average is 10.3, for birmingham away 10.9, between the last 11 meetings of these two, the average was 8.82, so a combination of all 3 would lead to an average of 10.0. Where is the logic in extrabets 11.8-12.3 mate? hope you can help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Well done Muppet, the results keep coming. I finally dipped my toe into a bit of spread betting this weekend by using betfair for the corners index. My first bet was on the Hearts Hibs game - very nice profit. Thanks. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield hi muppet' date=' i am intrigued by your thread, well done mate. im tryin to workout how places like extrabet workout their corner values. how can extrabet put on the market 11.8-12.3 for liverpool v birmingham when the last 10 games at home for liverpool the average is 10.3, for birmingham away 10.9, between the last 11 meetings of these two, the average was 8.82, so a combination of all 3 would lead to an average of 10.0. Where is the logic in extrabets 11.8-12.3 mate? hope you can help[/quote'] ive added to this the average over the last 5 seasons plus this season for all epl matches and that comes out at 11.06, consider that in the average and it takes it up to 10.27, still a far cry away from the sell spread of 11.8, i know your difference table only went up to 1.25 at the beginning of this thread so am i missing something here?? or have extrabet got it totally wrong statistically?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield ive added to this the average over the last 5 seasons plus this season for all epl matches and that comes out at 11.06' date=' consider that in the average and it takes it up to 10.27, still a far cry away from the sell spread of 11.8, i know your difference table only went up to 1.25 at the beginning of this thread so am i missing something here?? or have extrabet got it totally wrong statistically??[/quote'] scrap that, i think ive got it now, sorry for hijacking your thread, having a bit of a mad moment, keep up the gd work M :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield good question dannkez. here's how the averages work, depending on how far back you look into the past: Liverpool H Birmingham A last 5 12.60 13.00 last 10 11.30 11.60 last 20 11.75 11.50 last 50 10.98 11.22 last 100 11.02 10.75 last 5 H2H 9.80 me 11.34 SpIndex 11.75 Extrabet 11.55 Spreadex 11.65 Sportsspread 11.75 You've hit the nail on the head - how far back do you go? Do you weight recent games to count for more? Do you account for home/away? Do you account for opposition? By investigating factors such as these you should improve your ratings. As you can see by my estimate of 11.34 it's a small sell bet. Out of interest how did you resolve your issue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield And it hurts to post this.... SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 30% 47.34 2 189 bets 29% 31.79 0.0% 51.9% wins 28% 16.68 0.0% 3.2% level 27% 1.97 100.0% 45.0% losses 26% 0 24.00 1064.15 staked 25% -7.32 -24.00 280.55 profit 24% -15.93 -4.00 0.76 profit / 1pt stake 23% -24.68 -100% 26% yield 22% -33.56 33.75 record win -22.00 record loss SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 8/11/09 Sevilla Villarreal 11.50 u 4 17 -22.00 8/11/09 Inter Roma 11.00 o 1 9 -2.00 :puke:puke:puke:puke:puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield good question dannkez. here's how the averages work, depending on how far back you look into the past: Liverpool H Birmingham A last 5 12.60 13.00 last 10 11.30 11.60 last 20 11.75 11.50 last 50 10.98 11.22 last 100 11.02 10.75 last 5 H2H 9.80 me 11.34 SpIndex 11.75 Extrabet 11.55 Spreadex 11.65 Sportsspread 11.75 You've hit the nail on the head - how far back do you go? Do you weight recent games to count for more? Do you account for home/away? Do you account for opposition? By investigating factors such as these you should improve your ratings. As you can see by my estimate of 11.34 it's a small sell bet. Out of interest how did you resolve your issue? i simply hadnt taken in to consideration other factors like uve mentioned. I think i came out with something very similar to yours but cant remember now, its written down on a post-it at work somewhere :lol but what is clear is that your on to something really good here, hope you dont mind the questions, but how did you originally backtest this method? was it through paper trialling? whats your stop loss/win and what differences in the bookies price do you consider before showing confidence to raise the stake on a game? like i said apologies for the questions but when you are that close to the grail as it would appear you are, im all ears :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 189 bets +26% yield I basically thought of a system and used data from football-data website (google it) to create corner expectations. I couldnt really back test it until I collected some spread data. I paper trialled it before proofing it on here after realising I had a significant edge. If I am between half a corner and three quarters of a corner out from the midpoint of the spread I bet one unit per corner. The stakes are on this thread near the start of this season. Stop loss is ten corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 189 bets +26% yield cheers m. Yeh im a regular user of football data, it has helped me a lot on some of the systems i still run today. Cheers for the feedback, think you just scraped in on the liverpool game didnt ya? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 10, 2009 Author Share Posted November 10, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 189 bets +26% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 30% 47.71 1 190 bets 29% 32.15 0.0% 51.6% wins 28% 17.03 0.0% 3.2% level 27% 2.32 100.0% 45.3% losses 26% 0 0.20 1064.35 staked 25% -7.12 -0.20 280.35 profit 24% -15.73 -0.20 0.76 profit / 1pt stake 23% -24.48 -100% 26% yield 22% -33.36 33.75 record win -22.00 record loss this week this month bets 1 11 profit -0.20 -11.20 stake 0.20 67.20 yield -100% -17% SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 9/11/09 Liverpool Birmingham 11.80 u 1 12 -0.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timstertoo Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield What great run you are having! I realise last couple of results weren't what you expected, especially close to a milestone like the 30% but still :ok Keep it up, you've inspired me to eyeball the spreads too and see if there is more to be found. I'm also trying to combine Betfair with for instance Sportingindex to see if I can take the edge of the losses but still maximise the profits but up till now..:wall Oh well, keeps me of the street I suppose! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Question for you muppet or anyone else on here following this thread. Southampton Charlton tonight i thought i would start with having a dabble, i know its a cup game but as theyre in the same league i could at least check the average myself, my figure came out at 10.69. Now the spread on SPIN and extra is 10.5-11, what do you do in these instances? im inclined to buy at 11 where its a cup game and the h2h between them is over 13 from the last 11 games but only at a 1pt stake, as its below the mid point of 10.75 though, should i not sell but at 10.5. thoughts please anyone........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Question for you muppet or anyone else on here following this thread. Southampton Charlton tonight i thought i would start with having a dabble, i know its a cup game but as theyre in the same league i could at least check the average myself, my figure came out at 10.69. Now the spread on SPIN and extra is 10.5-11, what do you do in these instances? im inclined to buy at 11 where its a cup game and the h2h between them is over 13 from the last 11 games but only at a 1pt stake, as its below the mid point of 10.75 though, should i not sell but at 10.5. thoughts please anyone........ Sounds to me like your trying to force action where there isnt action to be had? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield how do you mean SP? i got no worries dropping it cos its too close to the mark, but im not sure if this is what M does. The only bet i see worthwhile here is a fixed one at 10-12.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Question for you muppet or anyone else on here following this thread. Southampton Charlton tonight i thought i would start with having a dabble, i know its a cup game but as theyre in the same league i could at least check the average myself, my figure came out at 10.69. Now the spread on SPIN and extra is 10.5-11, what do you do in these instances? im inclined to buy at 11 where its a cup game and the h2h between them is over 13 from the last 11 games but only at a 1pt stake, as its below the mid point of 10.75 though, should i not sell but at 10.5. thoughts please anyone........ Thoughts are: Stay away. Your figure tells you not to bet - follow that advice. If you can't stay away from gambling on this match, follow your instincts (and the H2H) and buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Southampton Charlton I get 10.38 I wouldn't touch cup games - different mentality as a draw can lead to replay or penalties etc, second string players out etc etc.... and for those who keep asking, this is my staking: error bet 0 0 0.25 0 0.5 1 0.75 3 1 4 1.25 5 1.5 7 1.75 8 2 9 2.25 11 2.5 12 2.75 14 3 15 the 'error' is calculated as the absolute value of my estimate minus the midpoint of the spread. in the cup game : abs(10.38-10.75) = 0.37 so no bet. but don't touch cup games or internationals - lack of helpful data! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Nice chart, although if you do get a supposedly huge value bet that goes awfully wrong you could end up losing over half your profit earned on 190 matches, maybe a bit too high risk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield True but my ratings are better than the spreads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield how many h2h games do you go back m? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield I am not revealing the precise workings. Does the corner count of a head to head ten years ago mean anything? In fact when predicting who will win the match, does the head to head result mean anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield i agree one ten years ago doesnt mean anything, i do believe a match like chelsea man u though would warrant checkin some head to head form. Maybe 2 seasons worth im not sure, cos certainly 4 or 5 seasons ago chelsea were a totally different team. So it begs the question just how much home and away form do you consider, again im inclined to think around 2 seasons. Is there any other factors you consider M as im thinkin of using this method in other markets also. Obviously i dont expect you to tell me your actual system ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield But two seasons worth only gives you 4 h2hs and only 2 at the correct venue. Worth experimenting though bud. That's the key. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Muppet have you ever thought about looking at the other corner spread markets such as corner supremacy, X-Corners, Multi-Corners to see if your ratings could be applied to these markets for even more profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.