Holy Grail Total Corners

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
6/11/09	Leverkusen	Ein Frankfurt	10.25	o	1
6/11/09	Derby	Coventry	11.50	o	2
7/11/09	Hearts	Hibernian	10.50	o	4
7/11/09	Barcelona	Mallorca	10.70	u	1
7/11/09	Atalanta	Juventus	10.30	u	1

just added Friday matches into regular format (see earlier proofing) Hearts - Spin other two - Extrabet

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
8/11/09	Sevilla	Villarreal	11.50	u	4
8/11/09	Inter	Roma	11.00	o	1

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM				YIELD CHANGE
these bets	ALL			33%	49.63
5	187	bets		32%	33.72
80.0%	52.4%	wins		31%	18.27
0.0%	3.2%	level		30%	3.25
20.0%	44.4%	losses		29%	0
30.25	1040.15	staked		28%	-6.31
21.75	304.55	profit		27%	-14.52
1.45	0.83	profit / 1pt stake		26%	-22.85
72%	29%	yield		25%	-31.32
	33.75	record win
	-18.00	record loss
SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
6/11/09	Leverkusen	Ein Frankfurt	10.25	o	1	6	-4.25
6/11/09	Derby	Coventry	11.50	o	2	13	3.00
7/11/09	Hearts	Hibernian	10.50	o	4	14	14.00
7/11/09	Barcelona	Mallorca	10.70	u	1	6	4.70
7/11/09	Atalanta	Juventus	10.30	u	1	6	4.30

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 182 bets +28% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
9/11/09	Liverpool	Birmingham	11.80	u	1

with extrabet. hoping to hit the 30% yield today or tomorrow.

[jazzfish]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Hi Muppet, Great results so far; congratulations. Is there any chance you can send me a private message with your email address as I would like to send you an email. I'd really like to discuss a system that I have developed and also ask a couple of questions about yours if possible? Kind regards JF

[robkor]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Hi Muppet, Nice progress! It's becoming more an more intresting...I hope this trends persist in the future. Your model must include some vital infomation that the market doesn't account for...to me such a high yield looks almost unrealistic, but I hope you'll prove me wrong ;) cheers

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Thanks rob. nearly 200 bets now and going strong! I believe this is the grail and may consider the implications - will the spreads change if people follow en mass? Jazz you don't have enough posts to p mail. Discuss it here - this is a great forum with a wealth of brains.

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield hi muppet, i am intrigued by your thread, well done mate. im tryin to workout how places like extrabet workout their corner values. how can extrabet put on the market 11.8-12.3 for liverpool v birmingham when the last 10 games at home for liverpool the average is 10.3, for birmingham away 10.9, between the last 11 meetings of these two, the average was 8.82, so a combination of all 3 would lead to an average of 10.0. Where is the logic in extrabets 11.8-12.3 mate? hope you can help

[barrhead73]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield Well done Muppet, the results keep coming. I finally dipped my toe into a bit of spread betting this weekend by using betfair for the corners index. My first bet was on the Hearts Hibs game - very nice profit. Thanks. :cheers

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield

hi muppet' date=' i am intrigued by your thread, well done mate. im tryin to workout how places like extrabet workout their corner values. how can extrabet put on the market 11.8-12.3 for liverpool v birmingham when the last 10 games at home for liverpool the average is 10.3, for birmingham away 10.9, between the last 11 meetings of these two, the average was 8.82, so a combination of all 3 would lead to an average of 10.0. Where is the logic in extrabets 11.8-12.3 mate? hope you can help[/quote'] ive added to this the average over the last 5 seasons plus this season for all epl matches and that comes out at 11.06, consider that in the average and it takes it up to 10.27, still a far cry away from the sell spread of 11.8, i know your difference table only went up to 1.25 at the beginning of this thread so am i missing something here?? or have extrabet got it totally wrong statistically??

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield

ive added to this the average over the last 5 seasons plus this season for all epl matches and that comes out at 11.06' date=' consider that in the average and it takes it up to 10.27, still a far cry away from the sell spread of 11.8, i know your difference table only went up to 1.25 at the beginning of this thread so am i missing something here?? or have extrabet got it totally wrong statistically??[/quote'] scrap that, i think ive got it now, sorry for hijacking your thread, having a bit of a mad moment, keep up the gd work M :clap:clap

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield good question dannkez. here's how the averages work, depending on how far back you look into the past:

	Liverpool H	Birmingham A
last 5	12.60	13.00
last 10	11.30	11.60
last 20	11.75	11.50
last 50	10.98	11.22
last 100	11.02	10.75
last 5 H2H	9.80
me	11.34
SpIndex	11.75
Extrabet	11.55
Spreadex	11.65
Sportsspread	11.75

You've hit the nail on the head - how far back do you go? Do you weight recent games to count for more? Do you account for home/away? Do you account for opposition? By investigating factors such as these you should improve your ratings. As you can see by my estimate of 11.34 it's a small sell bet. Out of interest how did you resolve your issue?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield And it hurts to post this....

SPREAD SYSTEM				YIELD CHANGE
these bets	ALL			30%	47.34
2	189	bets		29%	31.79
0.0%	51.9%	wins		28%	16.68
0.0%	3.2%	level		27%	1.97
100.0%	45.0%	losses		26%	0
24.00	1064.15	staked		25%	-7.32
-24.00	280.55	profit		24%	-15.93
-4.00	0.76	profit / 1pt stake		23%	-24.68
-100%	26%	yield		22%	-33.56
	33.75	record win
	-22.00	record loss

SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
8/11/09	Sevilla	Villarreal	11.50	u	4	17	-22.00
8/11/09	Inter	Roma	11.00	o	1	9	-2.00

:puke:puke:puke:puke:puke

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 187 bets +29% yield

good question dannkez. here's how the averages work, depending on how far back you look into the past:

	Liverpool H	Birmingham A
last 5	12.60	13.00
last 10	11.30	11.60
last 20	11.75	11.50
last 50	10.98	11.22
last 100	11.02	10.75
last 5 H2H	9.80
me	11.34
SpIndex	11.75
Extrabet	11.55
Spreadex	11.65
Sportsspread	11.75

You've hit the nail on the head - how far back do you go? Do you weight recent games to count for more? Do you account for home/away? Do you account for opposition? By investigating factors such as these you should improve your ratings. As you can see by my estimate of 11.34 it's a small sell bet. Out of interest how did you resolve your issue?

i simply hadnt taken in to consideration other factors like uve mentioned. I think i came out with something very similar to yours but cant remember now, its written down on a post-it at work somewhere :lol but what is clear is that your on to something really good here, hope you dont mind the questions, but how did you originally backtest this method? was it through paper trialling? whats your stop loss/win and what differences in the bookies price do you consider before showing confidence to raise the stake on a game? like i said apologies for the questions but when you are that close to the grail as it would appear you are, im all ears :lol

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 189 bets +26% yield I basically thought of a system and used data from football-data website (google it) to create corner expectations. I couldnt really back test it until I collected some spread data. I paper trialled it before proofing it on here after realising I had a significant edge. If I am between half a corner and three quarters of a corner out from the midpoint of the spread I bet one unit per corner. The stakes are on this thread near the start of this season. Stop loss is ten corners.

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 189 bets +26% yield cheers m. Yeh im a regular user of football data, it has helped me a lot on some of the systems i still run today. Cheers for the feedback, think you just scraped in on the liverpool game didnt ya?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 189 bets +26% yield

SPREAD SYSTEM				YIELD CHANGE
these bets	ALL			30%	47.71
1	190	bets		29%	32.15
0.0%	51.6%	wins		28%	17.03
0.0%	3.2%	level		27%	2.32
100.0%	45.3%	losses		26%	0
0.20	1064.35	staked		25%	-7.12
-0.20	280.35	profit		24%	-15.73
-0.20	0.76	profit / 1pt stake		23%	-24.48
-100%	26%	yield		22%	-33.36
	33.75	record win
	-22.00	record loss
	this week	this month
bets	1	11
profit	-0.20	-11.20
stake	0.20	67.20
yield	-100%	-17%
SPREAD SYSTEM			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
9/11/09	Liverpool	Birmingham	11.80	u	1	12	-0.20

[Timstertoo]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield What great run you are having! I realise last couple of results weren't what you expected, especially close to a milestone like the 30% but still :ok Keep it up, you've inspired me to eyeball the spreads too and see if there is more to be found. I'm also trying to combine Betfair with for instance Sportingindex to see if I can take the edge of the losses but still maximise the profits but up till now..:wall Oh well, keeps me of the street I suppose! :loon

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Question for you muppet or anyone else on here following this thread. Southampton Charlton tonight i thought i would start with having a dabble, i know its a cup game but as theyre in the same league i could at least check the average myself, my figure came out at 10.69. Now the spread on SPIN and extra is 10.5-11, what do you do in these instances? im inclined to buy at 11 where its a cup game and the h2h between them is over 13 from the last 11 games but only at a 1pt stake, as its below the mid point of 10.75 though, should i not sell but at 10.5. thoughts please anyone........

[Staines Passive]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield

Question for you muppet or anyone else on here following this thread. Southampton Charlton tonight i thought i would start with having a dabble, i know its a cup game but as theyre in the same league i could at least check the average myself, my figure came out at 10.69. Now the spread on SPIN and extra is 10.5-11, what do you do in these instances? im inclined to buy at 11 where its a cup game and the h2h between them is over 13 from the last 11 games but only at a 1pt stake, as its below the mid point of 10.75 though, should i not sell but at 10.5. thoughts please anyone........

Sounds to me like your trying to force action where there isnt action to be had?

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield how do you mean SP? i got no worries dropping it cos its too close to the mark, but im not sure if this is what M does. The only bet i see worthwhile here is a fixed one at 10-12..........

[Lardonio]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield

Question for you muppet or anyone else on here following this thread. Southampton Charlton tonight i thought i would start with having a dabble, i know its a cup game but as theyre in the same league i could at least check the average myself, my figure came out at 10.69. Now the spread on SPIN and extra is 10.5-11, what do you do in these instances? im inclined to buy at 11 where its a cup game and the h2h between them is over 13 from the last 11 games but only at a 1pt stake, as its below the mid point of 10.75 though, should i not sell but at 10.5. thoughts please anyone........

Thoughts are: Stay away. Your figure tells you not to bet - follow that advice. If you can't stay away from gambling on this match, follow your instincts (and the H2H) and buy.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Southampton Charlton I get 10.38 I wouldn't touch cup games - different mentality as a draw can lead to replay or penalties etc, second string players out etc etc.... and for those who keep asking, this is my staking:

error	bet
0	0
0.25	0
0.5	1
0.75	3
1	4
1.25	5
1.5	7
1.75	8
2	9
2.25	11
2.5	12
2.75	14
3	15

the 'error' is calculated as the absolute value of my estimate minus the midpoint of the spread. in the cup game : abs(10.38-10.75) = 0.37 so no bet. but don't touch cup games or internationals - lack of helpful data!

[Lardonio]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Nice chart, although if you do get a supposedly huge value bet that goes awfully wrong you could end up losing over half your profit earned on 190 matches, maybe a bit too high risk?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield True but my ratings are better than the spreads!

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield how many h2h games do you go back m?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield I am not revealing the precise workings. Does the corner count of a head to head ten years ago mean anything? In fact when predicting who will win the match, does the head to head result mean anything?

[dannkez2407]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield i agree one ten years ago doesnt mean anything, i do believe a match like chelsea man u though would warrant checkin some head to head form. Maybe 2 seasons worth im not sure, cos certainly 4 or 5 seasons ago chelsea were a totally different team. So it begs the question just how much home and away form do you consider, again im inclined to think around 2 seasons. Is there any other factors you consider M as im thinkin of using this method in other markets also. Obviously i dont expect you to tell me your actual system ;)

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield But two seasons worth only gives you 4 h2hs and only 2 at the correct venue. Worth experimenting though bud. That's the key.

[ardman123]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield Muppet have you ever thought about looking at the other corner spread markets such as corner supremacy, X-Corners, Multi-Corners to see if your ratings could be applied to these markets for even more profit.