muppet77 Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 35% 51.15 1 151 bets 34% 37.44 100.0% 52.3% wins 33% 24.14 0.0% 3.3% level 32% 11.23 0.0% 44.4% losses 31% 0 1.50 860.30 staked 30% -0.70 1.50 263.30 profit 29% -7.34 1.50 0.89 profit / 1pt stake 28% -14.10 100% 31% yield 27% -20.95 33.75 record win -18.00 record loss SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 27/9/09 Milan Bari 10.50 u 1 9 1.50 :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield i have been considering if there is any easy way to convert a spread price into a fixed odd price, without collating data and find lines of best fit equations. i then found an interesting market on SpIn. i think the answer lies within it but i cannot get my head around the maths. take ManU Wolfsberg for example: ManU Wolfsberg sell buy midpoint total corners 11 11.5 11.25 corners 10 up 20 23 21.5 corners 12 up 10 13 11.5 corners 14 up 4 6 5 corners 16 up 1 3 2 corners 18 up 0.5 2 1.25 corners 20 up 0 1 0.5 Corners 10-Ups 10pts are awarded per corner over 10. For example, match has 14 corners. Corner 10-Ups result = 40. If the match has 10 corners or less, the result = 0. any ideas how i can convert this info into % chance of say under 10.5 and over 10.5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield These any use: http://www.arbforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?num=1119263305 http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=EBDD1XL1sswC&pg=PA97&lpg=PA97&dq=calculate+%22spread+odds%22&source=bl&ots=IlaXAl-ecX&sig=nCbZ638tdIWWP_bCBic8p9LG02E&hl=en&ei=Q6vDSoX8E8q14Qbb9sHIBQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBIQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=calculate%20%22spread%20odds%22&f=false Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield wow. great find ale. i think that the book is the best shout - my head cannot get around it at the mo so i may look again tomorrow. can anyone else suss it using the info for the manu wolfsberg game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield well using the midpoints, if there are 0-10 corners that's 21.5 points. 0-12 is 11.5 points, 0-14 is 5, 0-16 is 2, 0-18 is 1.25, 0-20 is 0.5. using this info, 0-10 corners: 21.5 points 11-12 corners : 21.5-11.5=10 points 13-14 corners: 11.5-5=6.5 points 15-16 corners: 5-2=3 17-18: 2-1.25=0.75 19-20: 1.25-0.5=0.75 so 0-10: 21.5 pts 11-20: (10+6.5+3+.75+.75)=21pts totals 42.5 points so 0-10: 21.5/42.5=50.6% 11-20: 100-50.6=49.4% or odds of 1.98 and 2.02 does that make sense? yet the midpoint of the totals is 11.25 and not around 10.5 as calculated above? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 3/10/09 Bolton Tottenham 11.80 u 1 3/10/09 Barcelona Almeria 11.00 u 3 3/10/09 ManUnited Sunderland 11.50 u 3 4/10/09 Arsenal Blackburn 11.30 u 1 4/10/09 Chelsea Liverpool 10.70 u 1 SPIN = Manu and Barce, Extrabet = Bolton, Arse, Chel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield Anyone else having trouble with extrabet? Can't place any bets and my "available to bet" does not equal cash balance? Rejected The market you have requested is no longer available on-line. edit: emailed em, was a "stuck bet" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 4/10/09 Hertha Hamburg 11.00 u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield just for reference Ale and others, I have to use Firefox not IE to input bets into the box on Extrabet if i want to bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 32% 45.98 6 157 bets 31% 32.53 50.0% 52.2% wins 30% 19.45 0.0% 3.2% level 29% 6.74 50.0% 44.6% losses 28% 0 28.90 889.20 staked 27% -3.19 -14.70 248.60 profit 26% -10.25 -1.47 0.81 profit / 1pt stake 25% -17.41 -51% 28% yield 24% -24.70 33.75 record win -18.00 record loss SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 3/10/09 Barcelona Almeria 11.00 u 3 13 -6.00 3/10/09 Bolton Tottenham 11.80 u 1 11 0.80 3/10/09 ManUnited Sunderland 11.50 u 3 16 -13.50 4/10/09 Arsenal Blackburn 11.30 u 1 9 2.30 4/10/09 Chelsea Liverpool 10.70 u 1 13 -2.30 4/10/09 Hertha Hamburg 11.00 u 1 7 4.00 poor weekend. onwards and upwards. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 157 bets +28% yield just some quick analysis: i investigated how many bets were needed consecutively before the system made a profit each time. i found that when you divide the data into chronological order and look at groups of 28 matches, this is the minimum number that has always made a profit. so as long as you look at trends over this amount then the system tends to find profit. obviously randomly rearranging the data will produc different results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 157 bets +28% yield As long as your strike rate holds at this level M then I think you'll continue to make money. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 157 bets +28% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 12/1/00 Tranmere Stockport 10.80 u 3 extrabet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 157 bets +28% yield Tranmere market closed at moment with EB? - you can take 3 units on sell @ 10.75 with SpIn if you don't want to wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 157 bets +28% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 33% 42.44 1 158 bets 32% 28.58 100.0% 52.5% wins 31% 15.13 0.0% 3.2% level 30% 2.05 0.0% 44.3% losses 29% 0 17.40 906.60 staked 28% -5.93 17.40 266.00 profit 27% -13.09 5.80 0.86 profit / 1pt stake 26% -20.36 100% 29% yield 25% -27.74 33.75 record win -18.00 record loss SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 12/10/09 Tranmere Stockport 10.80 u 3 5 17.40 simples! £2.05 off a 30% yield again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield :clap:clap:clap Excellent work as usual Muppet. I continue to follow you, not on spreads, but on the over/unders market. 13.3% yield since the start of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield wow thanks bar. :tongue2 i was unsure of the spreads at first - but you can get a stop loss at 10 corners so that restricts your losses (and wins) to +/- 10 corners. spreads are built for this system as i can win more when i know the bookie has it way off. i am convinced that i can estimate the average midpoint better than the bookie and so spreads work naturally. this season has seen a yield of +39% (36 bets since 15th August) :nana:nana:nana try the spreads, mate, it's your call but i would recommend reading up on them and trialling them with low stakes at first. :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield :clap :clap :clap Excellent results muppet! I have never done spread betting but am tempted to give it a try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield Nice one M....Spin are paying me now !!! :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 14, 2009 Author Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield cheers for following guys and the kind words. this system is the business. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield Muppet, which spread betting bookies would you advise trying? Do any offer good bonuses for joining at the start? I see Sporting Index have a big offer on but this is only worthwhile if placing large bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield I've got a couple of credit accounts, one with Sporting & another with IG who are extrabet,, but personally i prefer Spin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield Agreed. Spin is my favourite but i have extrabet also to shop around with prices. Spin cover more games but there are the big two. 90 per cent of my bets are with spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 17/10/09 Man United Bolton 12.00 u 1 17/10/09 Sunderland Liverpool 11.00 u 4 17/10/09 Nottm F Newcastle 11.00 o 3 17/10/09 La Coruna Sevilla 11.00 u 3 17/10/09 RealMadrid Valladolid 11.25 u 1 17/10/09 Valencia Barcelona 11.00 u 4 sunderland = extrabet, rest are spin. 3 more 1 unit bets for sunday but will post later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield Very nice work so far Muppet. Just curious as to how you calculate yield? I think I read that you have a win/loss limit of 10 corners? Do you use stake per corner * 10 as your total stake? Being a spread betting system I imagine that calculating yield would be quite difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield I have sought opinion on this and the only suggestion i have is the following: profit divide by the absolute (profit and loss). Eg three bets. +2. +3. -3. Profit is 2. 'stake' is 8. So yield is 25 per cent. I am still open to suggestions but this is the way i have seen other spread bettors measure it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 18/10/09 Wigan Man City 11.00 u 1 18/10/09 Dortmund Bochum 10.75 o 1 18/10/09 Lazio Sampdoria 10.75 o 1 Sunday's picks, all Spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 158 bets +29% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 33% 44.50 6 164 bets 32% 30.14 33.3% 51.8% wins 31% 16.19 16.7% 3.7% level 30% 2.64 50.0% 44.5% losses 29% 0 32.75 939.35 staked 28% -5.86 9.25 275.25 profit 27% -13.28 0.49 0.84 profit / 1pt stake 26% -20.81 28% 29% yield 25% -28.46 33.75 record win -18.00 record loss SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 17/10/09 Man United Bolton 12.00 u 1 14 -2.00 17/10/09 Sunderland Liverpool 11.00 u 4 8 12.00 17/10/09 Nottm F Newcastle 11.00 o 3 10 -3.00 17/10/09 La Coruna Sevilla 11.00 u 3 8 9.00 17/10/09 R Madrid Valladolid 11.25 u 1 18 -6.75 17/10/09 Valencia Barcelona 11.00 u 4 11 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 19, 2009 Author Share Posted October 19, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 164 bets +29% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 32% 46.46 3 167 bets 31% 32.15 0.0% 50.9% wins 30% 18.25 0.0% 3.6% level 29% 4.74 100.0% 45.5% losses 28% 0 8.50 947.85 staked 27% -4.78 -8.50 266.75 profit 26% -12.31 -2.83 0.81 profit / 1pt stake 25% -19.96 -100% 28% yield 24% -27.73 33.75 record win -18.00 record loss SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 18/10/09 Wigan Man City 11.00 u 1 12 -1.00 18/10/09 Dortmund Bochum 10.75 o 1 7 -3.75 18/10/09 Lazio Sampdoria 10.75 o 1 7 -3.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 167 bets +28% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 24/10/09 Wolves Aston Villa 11.50 o 1 24/10/09 Tottenham Stoke 11.50 u 1 24/10/09 Derby QPR 11.50 o 3 24/10/09 Sp Gijon Real Madrid 11.00 u 1 24/10/09 Sevilla Espanol 11.25 u 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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