muppet77 Posted September 13, 2009 Author Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 136 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SPREAD SYSTEM these bets DOMESTIC CL+UEFA ALL 2 121 15 136 bets 100.0% 51.2% 46.7% 50.7% wins 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 3.7% level 0.0% 44.6% 53.3% 45.6% losses 9.00 626.15 108.75 734.90 staked 100% 30% 14% 28% yield 9.00 188.15 15.55 203.70 profit SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 12/9/09 getafe barcelona 10.00 u 1 7 3.00 13/9/09 inter milan parma 11.00 u 3 9 6.00 :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 136 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 14/9/09 MKDons Norwich 11.25 u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 19, 2009 Author Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 136 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SPREAD SYSTEM these bets DOMESTIC CL+UEFA ALL 1 122 15 137 bets 0.0% 50.8% 46.7% 50.4% wins 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 3.6% level 100.0% 45.1% 53.3% 46.0% losses 1.75 627.90 108.75 736.65 staked -100% 30% 14% 27% yield -1.75 186.40 15.55 201.95 profit SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 14/9/09 MK Dons Norwich 11.25 u 1 13 -1.75 19/9/09 Arsenal Wigan 11.50 u 3 19/9/09 West Ham Liverpool 11.50 u 3 20/9/09 Man United Man City 11.25 u 3 20/9/09 Chelsea Tottenham 11.50 u 3 20/9/09 Roma Fiorentina 11.25 o 1 20/9/09 Valencia Sp Gijon 10.75 u 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 19, 2009 Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 136 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Big test today muppet with all them 3's!! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 19, 2009 Author Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 136 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Bring them on! Low corners today please chaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 20, 2009 Author Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 136 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SPREAD SYSTEM these bets DOMESTIC CL+UEFA ALL 2 124 15 139 bets 100.0% 51.6% 46.7% 51.1% wins 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 3.6% level 0.0% 44.4% 53.3% 45.3% losses 15.00 642.90 108.75 751.65 staked 100% 31% 14% 29% yield 15.00 201.40 15.55 216.95 profit SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 19/9/09 Arsenal Wigan 11.50 u 3 10 4.50 19/9/09 West Ham Liverpool 11.50 u 3 8 10.50 boom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 139 bets +29% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Nice start M... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 139 bets +29% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! well ale, thats' a +11.25 profit from a stake of 30.75 meaning a +37% yield from the weekend. the three bets came out trumps overall. SPREAD SYSTEM these bets ALL 4 143 bets 50.0% 51.0% wins 0.0% 3.5% level 50.0% 45.5% losses 15.75 767.40 staked -24% 28% yield -3.75 213.20 profit SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 20/9/09 Man U Man City 11.25 u 3 12 -2.25 20/9/09 Chelsea Tottenham 11.50 u 3 14 -7.50 20/9/09 Roma Fiorentina 11.25 o 1 12 0.75 20/9/09 Valencia Sp Gijon 10.75 u 3 9 5.25 :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 139 bets +29% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! i may paste this table up now and then- how much profit i am off each yield level. so if i played one more match and won +7.70 my yield would rise to +29% YIELD CHANGE 32% 41.65 31% 30.01 30% 18.70 29% 7.70 27% -1.70 26% -7.78 25% -13.95 24% -20.23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 139 bets +29% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! this is how my profit has risen (domestic only - ignored the 14 cup games as different sheet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 143 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! I must have pressed buy for the Valencia game cos I made a 5.25 loss!! Nevermind, excellent results as usual mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 143 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 22/9/09 Racing Barcelona 10.50 u 3 22/9/09 Sevilla Mallorca 10.75 u 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 143 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! :As: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 143 bets +28% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SPREAD SYSTEM these bets ALL 2 145 bets 100.0% 51.7% wins 0.0% 3.4% level 0.0% 44.8% losses 25.25 792.65 staked 100% 30% yield 25.25 238.45 profit SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 22/9/09 Racing Barcelona 10.50 u 3 5 16.50 22/9/09 Sevilla Mallorca 10.75 u 5 9 8.75 boom! boom! :nana:cheers:drums:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! :clap Brilliant system Muppet, seems so simple too. Not been following with spread bets but even just with normal Over/Under bets i have produced a 33% yield so far this season. Cheers :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Cheers mate. Great yield isnt it. I really believe that this is an awesome system. How many bets do i go before raising the stakes from ten p per point? I have around 50 quid in the account. Also how many bets do i need before i can say that i have a system that is whipping the spread companies? I have run a few stats and chi tests and they come out at 100% significance. I was thinking of going 20p stakes now. Maximum loss is ten corners so that means a ten quid loss for a 5 point bet or about 25% of my bank. Suppose that is too large on one bet as some weekends there may be 10 bets on the go. Any advice? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Think your proofing over the last few months speaks for itself, mate I am already on the quids. The initial £30 is now at £80 :notworthy, was thinking more when do I go onto the tenners!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Excellent results M :clap What's the strike rate for this system ? - from that you can work out a safe staking amount from a given bank size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! K check out the stats in post 374. Some games are level as the spread may be an exact integer and that number of corners occurs. How does this help? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! M ... I looked at them but couldn't work them out into a strike rate .... but then I forgot that your spread betting .... so your correct 51.7% of the time ? Here's a handy excel formula for you =LOG(series of bets) / -LOG(1-(strike rate)) so in a series of 2000 bets and a strike rate of 51.7% the formula would be =LOG(2000) / -LOG(1-0.517)) this will give you the longest losing run. =LOG(2000) / -LOG(0.517) will give you the longest winning run. I make that a losing run of 10 is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! M ... I looked at them but couldn't work them out into a strike rate .... but then I forgot that your spread betting .... so your correct 51.7% of the time ? Here's a handy excel formula for you =LOG(series of bets) / -LOG(1-(strike rate)) so in a series of 2000 bets and a strike rate of 51.7% the formula would be =LOG(2000) / -LOG(1-0.517)) this will give you the longest losing run. =LOG(2000) / -LOG(0.517) will give you the longest winning run. I make that a losing run of 10 is possible. Kanga, there is no point staking up for a 10 game losing run only for your win to be preceeded by another 7 or 8 game losing streak. I find trying to calculate anything (amount to stake, ROI, losing runs etc) with spreads is very difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SJ ... I totally agree with you ... what you're correctly pointing out are "losing patches" where you get a run of losers and 1 winner followed by another run of losers making a total "patch" of 1 win in 17/18 I didn't want to dampen the thread too much as in the excitement of the success the staking suggested was crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SJ ... I totally agree with you ... what you're correctly pointing out are "losing patches" where you get a run of losers and 1 winner followed by another run of losers making a total "patch" of 1 win in 17/18 I didn't want to dampen the thread too much as in the excitement of the success the staking suggested was crazy. Please expand. I would be keen to hear what you would stake if this is your system given a bank of, say, £1000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! If there is a 1% chance of a losing run happening .... then there is a 5% chance of the same losing patch happening, but this figure is strike rate dependent and applies to around a 25% strike rate. I don't have the exact formula for this .... sorry. I allow for a "losing patch" of 32/33 bets for a strike rate of 25% as my systems tend to be around this %. I'm not sure if the maths are correct to just half this and say allow a losing patch of 16 for a 50% strike rate but it doesn't sound too far off to me. You then have to work out what average losing amounts could be ... I don't think you could expect a 10 corner loss for each of 16 matches on the trot ? If we say that a loss is 3 corners for each of those 16 matches that's a 48 point losing patch. Staking at 1% of bank would equal a bank risk of 48% which seems reasonable to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! M ... just picking up from barrheads comment of unders/overs ( I would imagine on betfair) could you run the odds on this to see the yield as a comparison ? Trying to word this delicately but do the 1 to 3 staking suggestions do what they say on the tin :loon Great work :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! K. What do you mean about the 1 to 3 stakes? I tweaked the stakes to maximise yield and they correlate with the error between my estimate and the actual number of corners so i am quite happy with that part. As for betfair i have considered it. However you do pay commission and my system relies heavily on my estimate being more accurate than the bookie. When they get it wrong i win. When they get it even more wrong i win more. It lends itself to spreads and i would not get this sort of return if i played the 0 to 9, 10 to 12, 13+ or even over or under a specific corner quote. I may put up a few prices for a couple of weeks though to track and prove my point to you and myself. So 1% bank per point per corner then? I will implement this on my personal betting but will still post in points per corner and let the followers work out there own costs. Thanks for all the advice so far. Its been great. ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! I may put up a few prices for a couple of weeks though to track and prove my point to you and myself. just looked on betfair at the genoa juve game. they offer low, med, high corner (0-9, 10-12, 13+) match coners (genoa, juve or tie) total corners (under 10.7 or over 11.1) the third bet is a spread bet (the bookies is 10.50 to 11). taking into account 5% commission, this offers value for a few corner under 10. if 10 corners BF price post 5% is 10.66 10 = 10.66 9 = 10.61 8= 10.56 7 = 10.51 6 = 10.46 5 = 10.41 4 = 10.36 3 = 10.31 2 = 10.26 1 = 10.21 0 = 10.16 still not sure due to lack of liquidity, but will keep an eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Hi M .... I think 1% is going to be a fair balance between profit and liability, even if there is a really bad patch with big average spreads you should be safe, you could push it to 1.25% or even 1.5% but personally I wouldn't go any further until you build more data. Regards the 1-3 staking, I read this as a sort of confidence guide and wondered if it was proving to be accurate ? e.g had you staked 3 points on all 1 point recommendations would you have shown more profit .... from what you've said above it seems you have this spot on, I noticed on a norwich match you lost very little as it was a 1 pointer. I'd be very interested to see what you come up with for betfair, if we all lump into the spreads then things may alter, value is key as you point out but with you're skills i'm sure you can translate a system. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! Yes k the stakes are linked to accuracy. So a larger stake means i am more sure the bookie has it wrong. I stake proportionally so. I will investigate the betfair odds this weekend. At the end of the day it is yield that counts. Profit is derived from this. Followers can determine what each point means to them and stake accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Total Corners: spreads = 145 bets +30% yield, fixed odds = 137 bets +80% yield !! SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 26/9/09 Stoke Man Utd 11.50 u 3 26/9/09 Liverpool Hull 11.50 o 1 LFC match is with extrabet. Nothing on BFair? either market not present or no liquidity. search on left hand side for "corners" oh well.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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