Haydock~Sat 14/2/09

[Tedthewolf]

1.55 Twiston-Davis horses are slowly coming back to form and BEAT THE BOYS 25/1 has a decent e/w chance much better than last run trainer was out of form at the time. Old timer L'AVENTURE 25's probably won't win but is still good enough to run well and with four places up for grabs is worth an e/w or place bet imo. 3.25 SCRIPTWRITER'S run lto suggest he is well capable of picking a decent race this term and is backable e/w at 16's. CHARLIE CRAB is running well and currently 40 on BF which is to good to miss and i will hopefully get a fair place price.

[bowles10]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 3.25 i fancy PENNEK to finally come good tomorrow especially with Hyadock's long run likely to help the horse over this 3m 1f trip. On its reappearance this season, was seen making late headway in the race won by Punchestowns over 2m 5f. Its 7th over 3m at Cheltenham behind Fair along was disappointing & maybe the pace of that race caught it out with the winner blazing a fast pace. Next outing 6L 3rd to Big Bucks again at Cheltenham is starting to look decent form & although never in with a shout, ran well. Just failed to get there on latest outing in a 3m 2f contest at Hereford, i think the penny may be dropping on how to ride this animal.

[Spooner]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 13:55 - Character Building AP McCoy is booked to ride Character Building here and he looks to have a great chance, had four runs this season and has not done much wrong in all four races, has ran good races on the ground, he also stays quite well. I fancied him to win a biggish race this season and I hope he goes in here. @ 13/2 William Hill

[Spooner]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 15:25 - Pennek Some good performences from Pennek this season and I fancy him to run big race today, beaten narrowly LTO at Hereford, he ran a very good race at cheltenham behind don't push it and big buck's, had some decent horses behind him. A slight concern would have to be that king's horses are not in the best of form however I will take a chance on Pennek here. @ 10/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Rainbow]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 kasbah bliss 120 hay. 1 pt win. far better form than any other in the race and trip and grounds ok. only one danger in my eyes and thats far too short due to trainer and jockey. looks a solid win bet.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 1:55 Haydock: Beat the Boys 5pts win 4pts place 25/1 generally Was looking for a relatively lightly raced horse at lower end of the weights when came across trends that suggest Beat the Boys meets a lot of the criteria for this race. Nigel Twiston-Davies might just be coming out the doldrums and some of Beat the Boys older form is very useful, particularly at Cheltenham when beat Joe Lively.

[Spooner]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 3:25 down to 15 runners, what a surprise. :eyes skybet and corals still go four places, :clap for them.

[mowgli77]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 Will have a keen eye on Kasbah Bliss, not backing it on heavy ground but considering placing a very large bet on it for the World Hurdle and feel if it wins today it will be a very short price for Cheltenham. Bookies I have accounts with only offer 5-2 so might have to put it on cash at Laddies and get 11-4.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 2.55 Tarablaze 4/5 var bog 15 pts This one was a nice well backed winner lto and could well follow up with graded success today. He looks slightly awkward at times in that he keeps a bit for himself and certainly lto he wasn’t doing much in front otherwise the winning margin would have been far greater. However he still was cosy enough and that win built on some good runs for this former point winner. He won at utt well and then produced a fine effort in a grade 2 to be second for an inexperienced horse. Today it looks a shoot out between him and Massasoit but he was a bit disappointing lto and I give preference to Hobbs’ runner. 3.25 Pennek 7/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w Very competitive race but the call for me is pennek who has run well this season so far in some hot handicaps without winning yet. Three times he has raced in races that have worked out well such as behind punchestowns, fair along and big bucks (all WH contenders now) and all of them have seen the form of their handicap wins boosted since. Pennek after that raced at leic where he was a staying on third in a three way battle at the line and he only just failed to win that day. The concern is he hasn’t won yet this season and that his mark continues to rise but he is going in the right direction himself and at leats from an e.w perspective looks a decent enough shot today.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 1:55 Haydock Analysis Micko De Beauchene unseated the last twice, not really his fault. Jumped in to the back of Mon Mome in the Welsh National, then stumbled on landing last time. It is possible that those experiences may effect his jumping in the future. Suited by conditions but stable could be in better form. Comply Or Die non-runner. Opera Mundi has got a good record here and when the mud is flying. Not proven at the trip, did not have his ground in the Scottish National and apparently swallowed tongue on reappearance. However, runs over shorter distances as though this trip should suit. Didn't have the best of runs last time when squeezed at the final fence. Running well although did not look 100% enthusiastic in the early stages. Could be capable of better temperament allowing. Mon Mome got hampered in the Welsh National, then had Micko run in to the back of him. Lost a lot of ground and momentum. Had looked a descent stayer prior to that, winning a good handicap at Cheltenham (first and second clear of the rest). Bit disappointing over hurdles since but is a better chaser. Stable still in good form. May be a couple a bit less exposed to beat him today and is without his usual rider Coleman. Cornish Sett was second in the Welsh National and has won this season. But I am still not convinced about his temperament. Does not win very often, sometimes finishing well through beaten horses and as such could be flattered. Had this not been a win only book would be shorter. Nenuphar Collonges was behind Cornish Sett in the Welsh National but did not jump well that day. Heavy going and a slower pace should not put as much strain on his jumping. Was second favourite that day and probably capable of improvement over extreme distances. Would rather have Choc on board but Hutch is an under rated jock. Rambling Minster had my money on him last time at Cheltenham. Given a bit to do by his jockey (not one of my favourites) but stayed on strongly. Possibly better handicapped horses in the race but at least he is in form. Character Building is only 1 lb better off with Rambling Minster for 2 ¾ lengths for his last chase start. Don't think that is the best thing to judge him on though. Often idles in a finish and does not win the races his ability deserves. Ran over hurdles last time but is a better chaser. Does have cheek pieces today and the benefit of AP, but that has been more than allowed for in the betting. Eric's Charm ran well at Sandown with AP on board but that is his course, probably best going right-handed with a soft lead these days. Not sure whether he is at his very best on very soft and can hit the odd fence when taken on. Glasker Mill finished just in front of Opera Mundi last time. That was at 3m and am less certain about Henrietta's horse staying the trip especially on very soft ground. Sherwood's Folly had a soft lead in the Welsh National and may be taken on by Eric's Charm today. Did weaken badly in the latter stages and had a hard race. Beat The Boys is interesting. Made a bad mistake at Chepstow last time when pulled up. Did look a progressive chaser prior to that. Stable has given signs of a return to form, however, some are still running poorly. D'Argent ran well in Glasker Mill / Opera Mundi's race last time over an inadequate trip. Is fairly well handicapped at his very best form but is getting on in years now. Does go well in the conditions. Nadover was 7^th in the National but a long way behind the winner. Very inconsistent and possibly best suited to unconventional fences these days. His third in the x-country would give him a chance here if capable of running to that figure. Coe is not the best of jumpers yet (novice) but hopefully these soft fences will not test that part of his game too much. Idled last time, pricking his ears and could be capable of much better now he is racing over trips that suit him. Runs well on heavy. Now of similar form standard to his hurdle form and is so big should make a far better chaser. Carnival Town won well under similar conditions at Chepstow last time but it was not a great race. Staying on well over 3 ¼ miles. Whether he will run as well in a more competitive race remains to be seen. L'Aventure has seemed rejuvenated by his new trainer this term. Suited by extreme distances in the mud but does have a poor win / run ratio. Another with a far better place record than win. Fell last time and that may also effect his temperament this time. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 1:55 Haydock 100% (win only) Book Micko De Beauchene 5.25% 18/1 Comply Or Die --NR-- Opera Mundi 10.5% 17/2 Mon Mome 7.25% 13/1 Cornish Sett 5% 20/1 Nenuphar Collonges 12.5% 7/1 Rambling Minister 5.25% 18/1 Character Building 7% 14/1 Eric's Charm 2.5% 40/1 Glasker Mill 5% 20/1 Sherwood's Folly 7.25% 13/1 Beat The Boys 5% 20/1 D'Argent 3.5% 28/1 Nadover 1% 100/1 Coe 18% 9/2 Carnival Town 3.5% 28/1 L'Aventure 1.5% 66/1 Those in bold are (imo) value selections at best bookies / exchange prices. Ginge

[SteveO]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09

Will have a keen eye on Kasbah Bliss' date=' not backing it on heavy ground but considering placing a very large bet on it for the World Hurdle and feel if it wins today it will be a very short price for Cheltenham. Bookies I have accounts with only offer 5-2 so might have to put it on cash at Laddies and get 11-4.[/quote'] Very impressive mate. Travelled beautifully and once asked to quicken did so with ease. A classy performance.

[RussP]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 Kasbah looked awesome. Poor ground but travelled with ease, jumped well and quickened when popped the question:clap

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 1.55 sherwood folly e/w and mon mome e/w both should relish the ground anh have plenty of stamina, the muds flying and the trip's gonna take some getting.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 Agreed Kasbah quickened nicely after pinging the last, ans thats on heavy ground.:eek

[mileni4uk]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09

Will have a keen eye on Kasbah Bliss' date=' not backing it on heavy ground but considering placing a very large bet on it for the World Hurdle and feel if it wins today it will be a very short price for Cheltenham. Bookies I have accounts with only offer 5-2 so might have to put it on cash at Laddies and get 11-4.[/quote'] Hope you lumped on, mate. I have my biggest bet for the festival at 10/3 and I'm not laying anything of it. This horse could be the next Inglis Drever if not better. Trainer said he has improved since last year. Winning group races on the flat and being 1lgt behind a 172 rated 3 times world hurdle winner. Better chance than Binocular imo.

[stewartd14]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 3.25 Haydock FOREMAN Interesting that Mccoy rides this Mcmanus horse instead of the horse thats favoured in the market, Synchronised. On old form, this useful chaser would take a lot of beating, and he takes advantage of a nicer mark over hurdles. I feel that he is gradually coming back to form and is probably worth a nibble today. 50/1 available EW

[stewartd14]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 At the price now, I would have to be against Kasbah Bliss. You cant take anything away from what he did today - he didnt have that much to beat but he did it very nicely and quickened on impressively in heavy ground. Considering that was after a break .... wow. However, the horse has now run 3 times at Cheltenham, and never actually managed to win. In my opinion, his 2nd to Inglis Drever in last year's renewal wasnt anything special. I think Inglis Drever was past his best, and if you look past the 1st two, the race doesnt look that strong IMO. Before that World hurdle, he hadnt done that much either, and I'm not that convinced he improved from the year before. The World Hurdle the year before was a much better race IMO, and Kasbah could only finish 5th. This years World hurdle looks more like the WH 2 years ago, and if that is the case, I dont think Kasbah Bliss should be so sort. I think there are horses better than Inglis Drever in this race, and Kasbah struggled to beat Inglis. Admittedly Kasbah Bliss maybe has improved and he looked very good today, but his record at Chelters isnt brilliant, and I wouldnt be lumping on at the 6/4 on offer. I may be wrong, but thats my opinion.

[SteveO]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 Where did you get 6/1 from stew:loon or are you talking about Big Bucks.

[stewartd14]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09

Where did you get 6/1 from stew:loon or are you talking about Big Bucks.

:$ Should say 6/4 ! If it was 6/1 I would be lumping on :loon

[mileni4uk]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 I would disagree with Stewart :) I think the horse you can compare the form to is Blazing Bailey, who is a typical consistent 160 horse without being something special. He beat Kasbah in 2006, but got beat easily in 2007 by 10 lengths. So if he ran his usual race around the 160s (which I think he did) then there's nothig wrong with last year's form and Inglis and Kasbah deserve to be rated in the 170s. One year later Kasbah Bliss has won a G3 on the flat and unlucky to be a 1lgt 4th in a very competitive G1. I think the horse has improved again, jumps for fun, stays well, no problem with ground and has gears, which Punchestowns and Big Bucks don't have. For me 7/4 is still a value. If the ground is good to soft I can see him being odds on, I really do.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 Interesting thoughts about Kasbah Bliss. For me there are two slight question marks for me about what I consider to be the best horse in the race. One for me is his jockey who I rate as unproven around chelt. and didnt give the horse a great ride last year. The other is just a slight doubt about the trip at chelt. Now this is arguably linked with the first point. Kasbah Bliss when he was younger for me never got 3m, especially at chelt., for example in the 2007 WH he never got home. Now as he has grown older he appears to stay 3m and at times there has been no disputing this at all, ie. hay two years on the trot although that now is a track no longer the test it once was. However doing it at chelt. over 3m is a different matter especially if they really test out Kasbah Bliss and really push his and say Punchestowns stamina. It would be hard fetch of me to say he didnt get home agaisnt ID last year as he pushed the 3 time champ all the way to the line and pulled clear of the third. However I still have at the back of my mind that he is not totally guarnteed to get home and I felt last year, he had ID at one point, yet his jockey didnt go for it and delayed his challenge a touch against a staying horse like ID who was always going to stay up the hill. I felt he was almost ridden as if there was a doubt that if he went too soon that he wouldnt last and it is just a slight concern for me about KB. I consider him the best natural horse in the race and he has improved too (Flat form suggests as much) but my slight stamina doubt which admittedly maybe a bit far fetched these days, just puts me of him and say more with a stayer like Big Bucks especially if there was say some cut and a guaranteed real stamina test. Mind you by march I probably would have changed my mind :lol

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09

I would disagree with Stewart :) I think the horse you can compare the form to is Blazing Bailey' date=' who is a typical consistent 160 horse without being something special. He beat Kasbah in 2006, but got beat easily in 2007 by 10 lengths. So if he ran his usual race around the 160s (which I think he did) then there's nothig wrong with last year's form and Inglis and Kasbah deserve to be rated in the 170s. One year later Kasbah Bliss has won a G3 on the flat and unlucky to be a 1lgt 4th in a very competitive G1. I think the horse has improved again, jumps for fun, stays well, no problem with ground and has gears, which Punchestowns and Big Bucks don't have. For me 7/4 is still a value. If the ground is good to soft I can see him being odds on, I really do.[/quote'] I actually reckon Blazing Bailey didnt run his 2007 race in 2008, not by much but by a little bit. I felt one of the reasons for this was that BB is a horse who really needs to be known well, Thornton knows him inside out and when he hits his traditional flat spots. Ruby had never ridden him before and he might not quite have got on with him until it was too late. This was possibly seen by the fact that he had one of his flat spots right at the wrong time around two out and looked likely for 6/7 place, yet he flew late him that day to ended up a well beaten fourth but certainly a staying on fourth. For me what he did in 2007 when he was third with Mighty Man and ID was better than what he did in 2008.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 I agree with Stewart, can't have Kasbah at 6/4, very poor value, win or lose. Was impressive but had the form to demolish the second anyway. Did not need to improve to do that. The third Duke De Regie did not run well at all. So he had nothing to beat. The jockey is not the best, good job the horse is a good jumper because Pieux rides rediculously short. If he tries to give horses like Fair Along as much rope he will hang himself. Punchestowns could do that to those. Yes, The Bliss may be able to do better having improved on the flat since last term. However, this years race looks better than last season with Big Bucks another that may vome in to it, especially given soft ground. Sorry but will be nowhere near odds-on Mileni. I am going to wait a little longer until I get in to this race again. Backed Blazing Bailey at the start of this season for the race, but have been disappointed. Got away with it for this thread as for some reason did not put it up. Was consistent a couple of years ago but lost his form last term until blinkered on his final two starts at Aintree and Punchestown (not Cheltenham). Has not recaptured that despite having the headgear back on last time. Think I took 8/1, I would not take 5 times that now. Punchestowns looks the value to me but Big Bucks could be interesting if it looks like being soft. Idles quite badly and could be better than he's shown so far. Fair Along is not out of it either. Was trying to give weight to Big Bucks the other day. Runs very well at Cheltenham and will be suited to a sounder surface at the trip. May be a good each way bet, particularly with an easy lead. Ginge

[mileni4uk]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 If ground is good to soft I think Kasbah could easily go evens.

[SteveO]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 11/8 is the shortest he'll go I reckon;)

[mowgli77]

Re: Haydock~Sat 14/2/09 The trainer says the horse is a stone better on good ground, if it's good or good to soft for the World Hurdle Kasbah will win by at least 6 lengths and should go off at odds on. I wanted to have a big bet on KB for the world hurdle but have missed the 11-4, I tried to get on during todays race but betting was suspended, Bet 365 then went 2's for about 30 seconds and reduced it to 7-4. I can't see it being beaten at Cheltenham, it has done nothing but improve, 5th in a world hurdle, 2nd in a world hurdle to a true great and clear of the rest last year. I'm going to lump on it anyway but might wait until the day because of the doubts regarding the ground. I think Voy Por, Kasbah Bliss and Master Minded look like good things at the festival and possibly include Binocular who could be very special.