Notts_Punter Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Right, going to try a simple little system based around the half-time/win, full-time/draw result. As a few of you will know, most bookies price the vast majority of games at 15 for this outcome regardless of who is playing. So they (roughly) think it may happen in about 1 in 14, or 7%, of games. But I've been doing a bit of research and found certain teams, probably because of the style in which they play, take part in a game that produces this result far more often. Rochdale, for example, have had 7 out of 28 ht win/ft draw results, hence the name of the system. So in 1 in 4, or 25% of their games, they were either winning or losing at ht and ended up drawing. It's about half and half whether they were winning or losing at ht. Priced at the bookies' bog standard 15, a one-unit stake on Rochdale AND their opponent to ht/win, ft/draw throughout the season would have returned 105 units for 56 staked. So the system is as follows: Any team from the Prem to the Blue Square Prem that has been involved in a ht/win, full/draw in at least 20% of their games will be backed with one unit, as will their opponents, to do the same. This may increase slightly if two 20%ers come up against each other, and will be pointed out. May be a complete disaster but fingers crossed. As of today, the teams who have been involved in ht/win, ft/draws in at least 20% of their games are: Prem Hull 20% League One Oldham 20% League Two Rochdale 25% Morecambe 21.4% Gillingham, Notts County, 20.6% BSP Cambridge 23.3% York, Histon 22.5% Crawley 20.6% My research hasn't identified a particular team that is usually leading at the break then blows it. The above teams tend to be INVOLVED in these games which is why I'll be back them and their opponents. So here goes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System First one, tonight, Kidderminster v Cambridge (23.3%), has just been postponed because of a waterlogged pitch, is this an omen?! :unsure ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Good luck with this, will be watching with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System yes good luck with it mate, always nice to target the juicy odds markets like this and correct score Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Right, two for Tuesday: League Two Morecambe (21.4%) v Lincoln City. BSP Histon (22.5%) v Mansfield. HT home win/FT draw and HT away win/FT draw. One unit on each @ 15. Bets: 4 Won: 0 Lost: 0 Units staked: 4 Units returned: 0 Profit/Loss: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProphetofProfit Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System First one' date=' tonight, Kidderminster v Cambridge (23.3%), has just been postponed because of a waterlogged pitch, is this an omen?! :unsure ;)[/quote'] No, it's the weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Right, two for Tuesday: League Two Morecambe (21.4%) v Lincoln City. BSP Histon (22.5%) v Mansfield. HT home win/FT draw and HT away win/FT draw. One unit on each @ 15. Bets: 4 Won: 0 Lost: 0 Units staked: 4 Units returned: 0 Profit/Loss: 0 Did you get exactly 15 odds on all four bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Thanks for that, prophet :D Is it an omen, or the weather, that Histon has gone the same way tonight? And Cogge - yes, each bet is 15. As I said, most bookies price this outcome at 15 regardless of who is playing or their previous results, this system is just a little way of investigating whether this can be exploited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Hm, interesting approach, and I'll follow this thread with care; can I give a suggestion: as match must end in draw to win your bet (and half-time is "variable"), I consider this system will work best in leagues with most draws; out of leagues you researched, League Two has the most draws: 30 % of matches this season finished in draw (338 matches played); in Premier, 27 % finished in draw (247 matches played), in Championship, 29 % (370 matches), and in League One and Conference, as low as 25 % of matches finished in draw (339 and 347 matches, respectively). Meanwhile, there are some leagues with more draws: in Italy Serie B, France National and Spain Segunda draw occured more than 33 % (263, 205 and 253 matches played this season, respectively), and in Germany 2 and Belgium 2 about 32 % of matches finished in draw (204 and 215 matches till now); what do you think, are those leagues worth similar research as yours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Thanks for that, prophet :D Is it an omen, or the weather, that Histon has gone the same way tonight? And Cogge - yes, each bet is 15. As I said, most bookies price this outcome at 15 regardless of who is playing or their previous results, this system is just a little way of investigating whether this can be exploited. i looked at this before but never really liked the idea (mainly the odds side of it), and found that i was getting odds as high as 17 (for the home side), while as low as 13 (for the away side) for this. In light of this, which bookie are you using? Hopefully this will be successful for you, although I must say again, that I was looking into this before - and i kind of got bored of it....main reason being that from this season from 622 randomly selected games between 29th December and 5th February there were only 10% of these that finished either as H/D or A/D. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that blindly backing the HD, AD market at level stakes would have put you down by 299pts from those randomly selected matches (yes, random, because they just happened to be at hand when i noticed this thread :D) if the average odds had been 15 and you were losing -2 for every loss and gaining 13 for every win. You AREN'T blindly backing the HD, AD market, so I expect your strike rate will be improved...after all, even a 6% increase in strike rate would see your -299 become +286....so it's tight margins here. Good luck anyway, hopefully you HAVE managed to find a strategy for beating the HD, AD markets.....it can be very profitable :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Lunatism - I'm using WH. You're right, backing every game wouldn't work - if it did we'd all be rich by now and all the bookies would be broke! This season a ht win/ft draw has cropped up in about 12% of games from Prem to BSP which would of course represent a loss at level stakes. I'm going to start with small (ish) stakes just to see if there is anything in backing the teams who seem to buck this trend eg the Rochdales and Oldhams. Like you say it's tight margins so let's see what happens :ok I like the look of your irritable aways system too - I backed Brentford last week :@ Froment - that makes sense and those leagues would definitely be worth researching. I am only using English leagues because they are the only ones I can find detailed enough stats for. Do you know of a site where I can go through Serie B, Spanish Segunda, Ligue 2 etc, which also includes goalscorers or half-time results, not just the final result? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Yep; for example, results for Spain Segunda you'll find at BetVirus or BetExplorer . In the first link, you see results for February; fir previous months, just choose from drop-down menu at the top; and in later one, only the full-time result is displayed; for half-time result, click the appropriate match. There you can find the other leagues, too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Not a bad start! :beer Right, two for Tuesday: League Two Morecambe (21.4%) v Lincoln City. FT 1-1 (HT 1-0) :nana BSP Histon (22.5%) v Mansfield. OFF :\ HT home win/FT draw and HT away win/FT draw. One unit on each @ 15. Units staked: 2 Units returned: 15 Profit/Loss: +13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System nice start mate - good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System .... great stuff there young fella, great start and long may it continue. Shall watch with interest.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Cheers fellas, bit of beginner's luck no doubt. 83rd min equaliser helped too, cheers Paul Green :cheers That result pushes Lincoln up to 20.7%, so they're in the selections for Saturday. And a whopping 24.1% of Morecambe's games have now been a ht/win, ft/draw! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evenstephen Posted February 11, 2009 Share Posted February 11, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System I'm a Lincoln fan so am delighted you got off to a winning start. :ok We've often played better in the second half of games this season as your figures show. What happens if a manager leaves one of the clubs you mentioned? Different managers have different tactics so might be best to watch those teams in case their form changes. Anyway good luck with this method. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Posted February 11, 2009 Share Posted February 11, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Lincoln don't play well in either half Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System I like this idea alot. Good luck Np :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Thanks Spooner. A good start but there's a long way to go yet before we find out if this system is actually any good! :ok Stephen - Any team that falls below a certain percentage of ht/win, ft/draw (HTW/FTD) games will drop out of the selections until they're involved in enough to get back in again. I was going to set this at 20% as mentioned in the original post, but have decided to lower the bar to 18%, as teams only need to be involved in 15% HTW/FTDs throughout the season to be profitable at the standard odds of 15. This means that if there is a managerial change and the team suddenly shores up their defence or something (like Mansfield in the BSP) they'll quickly fall below 18% HTW/FTD and drop out the selections. If they get some crazy attacking Keegan-esque manager in and start drawing games 2-2 or 3-3 they'll soon get in. It also means that Chesterfield and Aldershot make it in to the latest selections as they've HTW/FTD'd 18.5% so far this term. Your own Lincoln are currently just knocking on the door at 17.8%. Roll on Saturday :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko Posted February 13, 2009 Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Hi Notts, Wish you all the luck in the world with these, as you will be needing it! This are highly speculative bets, where you will be needing a lot more than just the willhills stats. A constant monitoring on a limited number of leagues including all news and gossip around each club - in other words no system would work here - it takes so many things for one team to be up at HT and draw at FT... Keep your stakes low, never get impatient if a bad run. Odds for such events to occur are tempting, yet unfair by far IMO... BOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Hi Nicko, First off I must say that these aren't WH stats, they're stats I have researched myself by going through every game this season. I just use WH to bet with because they seem to blindly price every game at 15. Secondly, there have been systems on here that take into account hundreds of factors in coming up with their predictions - but still make a loss. The fact is that there are teams, such as the ones I'm focusing on, whose games seem to have a far higher chance of being a HTW/FTD than the 7% the bookies price at. Up to 25% in Rochdale and Morecambe's cases. So they aren't that speculative - a quarter of these team's games have produced it. I think we all agree that if you can find something that you believe the bookies have priced too long, it's good value, and this is what this system is investigating - is it right that the likes of WH price at 15 across the board when on the stats at least, certain sides have a much higher chance of producing this outcome in their games than others? Must also point out that I'm backing both sides in these games - so not looking for a particular side to be up and half-time and draw at full time. It doesn't matter. Thanks for your input, though, I will brave out any bad runs. As you say the stakes are (relatively) small so far as I test out whether there is anything in this. If not, so be it and I will tip my hat to you :ok Re your point on league gossip, should also point out that as a follower of Notts County I have become something of an expert on lower league football over the past 10 years! :eyes :wall :@ ;) ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Right, time for this weekend's selections: Oldham (20%) v Northampton Macclesfield v Rochdale (25%) Morecambe (24.1%) v Chester Notts County (20.6%) v Barnet Rotherham v Gillingham (20.6%) Exeter City v Aldershot (18.5%) Shrewsbury v Chesterfield (18.5%) Cambridge Utd (23.3%) v Mansfield York City (22.5%) v Forest Green Salisbury v Histon (22.5%) Eastbourne v Crawley (20.6%) All HTW/FTD results covered as singles for home and away teams @ 15, so 22 bets in total. One unit on each. So far: Games selected: 1 HTW/FTDs hit: 1 S/R: 100% Units Staked: 2 Units Returned: 15 Profit/Loss: + 13 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted February 13, 2009 Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Best of luck with this v0118aga, I will watch this closely:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTID100 Posted February 13, 2009 Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Good luck with this! I will watch with interest!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System quarter of these team's games have produced it.... ...all agree that if you can find something that you believe the bookies have priced too long, it's good value, and this is what this system is investigating - is it right that the likes of WH price at 15 across the board when on the stats at least, certain sides have a much higher chance of producing this outcome in their games than others... Hi Notts, thanks for replying. I have some of the points you made as extracts, in case you want me to comment further, as with this kind of bets I had massive experience and a good database in the previous 4 years. In fact my best 3 wins ever were on HT both Home or Away/ FT Draw, hitting 3 out of 5, with both trebles and doubles in a 32-slips system, each with 20 bets and a nice stake per bet. In the long run though no other experience has cost me more money. The percentages you mention are a good start and a quarter of the games might even be considered as some system, or at least a trend. Catching such trend is magic though. Certain team might get to even higher percentage by mid season, and then this event might never take place in the second half at all. Just think how many different little actions take place in the first 45 mins of a game, and double that number in the second half if one of the teams is up at HT - EVEN A THROW-IN IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION MIGHT COMPLETELY CHANGE THE COURSE OF THE GAME, let alone cards, sending off, fouls, cards, penalties, etc. That is why I think first - a system is impossible here. Second, odds despite being high do not reflect the real risk a punter is taking. Third, and this is what IMO you should concetrate is trying to catch a wave, a trend, with certain league, or better with certain teams. What you are doing , based on the current percentage is only half of the job, further monitoring should start building a database for you - new Managers and tactics, transfers and league ambitions, personal qualities of key players, etc. An example of what I call trend was Real Sociedad the season they got last relegated. After the first third of the season Sociedad ( having top players, some with CL experience ) started playing really open football as they were bottom, a pure shock with all the internationas in the team, in hope for catching up - they certainly had the potential. As a result, in the remaining games Real ( JUST AT HOME !) in 6 or 7 games were up by HT, and lost, plus in another 3 drew, including dropping a 3-1 lead in the end vs the bitter enemy Bilbao. The percentage of the games they lost, at odds from 25,00 up to 41,00 was over 30%, add the draws to that figure and you only need one team like this to retire. This is what I meant by trend or a wave - the further they were failing into the season, the riskier they played and the event had a bigger chance to occur. This is also what I meant by wishing you luck with your experiment, fingers crossed for you to ride one of these, hopefully with more than one team. I might sometime post here some suggestions if you don't mind, but I won't bet on these - forgive me for being stubborn, but I still think no system is possible here, and I still think at these odds these bets are speculative and hardly worth the time for research. Again BOL, and will read your picks with interest :ok:hope:ok:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Hi Nicko, Thanks for your points, I take them all on board. I appreciate what you mean and as I have said, this is really an experiment to see if I can exploit what I see as the bookies' laziness in blindly pricing every game at 15. If so I think we would all drink to that! :cheers But if not, and the system isn't working (ie profitable) after a few weeks, I will call it a day and say so on here. Please feel free to follow my picks, I'm just off now to watch one live - the mighty Notts County :notworthy v Barnet, MASSIVE GAME! :lol Although in that one I would much prefer a HW than HTW/FTD! :ok NP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System Well, of the eight games that survived the weather, seven had one side leading at HT - but none finished as draws! :wall Oldham (20%) v Northampton. HT 1-0 :ok, FT 2-1 :@ Macclesfield v Rochdale (25%). HT 0-1 :ok, FT 0-1 :@ Morecambe (24.1%) v Chester. HT 3-0 :ok, FT 3-1 :@ Notts County (20.6%) v Barnet. HT 1-0 :loon, FT 2-0 :@ :loon Rotherham v Gillingham (20.6%). HT 1-0 :ok, FT 2-0 :@ Exeter City v Aldershot (18.5%). HT 1-0 :ok, FT 3-2 :@ Shrewsbury v Chesterfield (18.5%). HT 1-1 :@. FT 2-1 :@ Cambridge Utd (23.3%) v Mansfield OFF York City (22.5%) v Forest Green OFF Salisbury v Histon (22.5%). HT 0-1 :ok, FT 0-4 :@ Eastbourne v Crawley (20.6%) OFF All HTW/FTD results covered as singles for home and away teams @ 15, so 22 bets in total. One unit on each. Just one would have been enough to have finished up just about even, but never mind, at least Notts won! :nana So far: Games selected: 9 HTW/FTDs hit: 1 S/R: 11% Units Staked: 16 Units Returned: 15 Profit/Loss: - 1 unit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System 3/4 in FA CUP :loon and just 2 in all leagues in England, Stockport and Leicester. Still, The Mighty Notts County with a good win. Hope you don't mind if I post a couple of suggestions for the Sunday games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notts_Punter Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: The HT/FT Rochdale System No mate, please go ahead! :ok And yes, a good win for the boys thanks so I'm not too displeased tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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