lunatism Posted February 11, 2009 Author Share Posted February 11, 2009 Irritable Aways SUMMARY - 10/02/09 (MATCHDAY 1) Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Peterborough United FC 2 - 4 :@ Accrington Stanley FC v Brentford FC 1 - 1 :) Well, as Rabs pointed out - things at HT were going "well", but Peterborough got two second half goals and so nothing great to look at stats wise. But now the sample size is bigger (albeit only by two!), which is good news, having fully demonstrated what a losing day can do to the bank, i'm hoping to have the chance to demonstrate a winning day the next time there are some selections! STARTING BANK £100.00 CURRENT BANK £97.22 P / L -£2.78 GROWTH -3% SELECTIONS 2 WINS 1 LOSSES 1 STRIKE RATE 50% AVERAGE ODDS 2.31 MINIMUM ODDS 2.28 MAXIMUM ODDS 2.34 MIN BANK 82% In case there was wonderment (should be a word if it's not), Min Bank is just showing the lowest the bank is at while all games are in play on any selection day. I'll be back shortly (hour or so) with any news on new selections :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 11, 2009 Author Share Posted February 11, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Interesting that you've layed Peterborough - Brighton are in shocking form' date=' and have an awful home record. I'd be quite surprised if that wins.[/quote'] no suprises then, huh? :tongue2 Good spot there SvN, pity they couldn't hold on at keep it to two. Bring on the weekend (well, bring on Friday....can't really see my selections until the day of the selections, but since there are so many matches on Friday, might be a few for then too). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 11, 2009 Author Share Posted February 11, 2009 Irritable Update (11/02/09) Just to confirm my worst fears.....there are no selections today :loon As SvN pointed out, Brighton not in the best of sorts formwise, kind of rules out this system being too dependent on form, huh? (something to jot down Palaceman ;)) (and "being too dependent on form" means exactly as it seems to mean - form isn't discounted completely, it's just not one of the most important factors...yet, i STILL will be looking closely into that Peterborough game) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 11, 2009 Share Posted February 11, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Mmm, like SvN, I'd be interested to know how Peterboro ended up as a selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 11, 2009 Author Share Posted February 11, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Mmm' date=' like SvN, I'd be interested to know how Peterboro ended up as a selection[/quote'] the same way that Accrington did!! Smoke signals from the deities of course :notworthy on a more serious note, after my enquiry into the Peterborough inclusion, i noticed a few things, and have pencilled in a few potential improvements to the selection process, but i'm not going to change anything until I have a larger sample size - because really, at only touching 60 selections, any changes made now might just be considered (by me at least) to be back-fashioning (for the life of me can't think of a better word) the past results to suit removing a few losses...in order to improve the strike rate and improve what yesterday could have been! Sometimes i'm tempted to, but modifying the selection process after a loss (especially after just one "live" matchday) is just not clever in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Irritable Testing...To Pass The Time Following up on that Peterborough game, this morning (that's.....5 minutes ago or something like that), i decided to provide the test info just so you know what kind of potentially "back fashioning" data I have on my hands :lol: Selections: 55 (currently 59) Wins: 50 (currently 50) Losses: 5 (currently 9) Strike Rate: 91% (currently 85%) Average Odds: 2.53 (currently 2.53) P/L (level stakes): +39.63 (currently 33.42) Although I can provide these test results (if anybody really really wanted to look at them) on here in spreadsheet format, the main point of these tests (apart from killing the kind of boredom you get from waking up at 4am for no good reason) is...erm...well - I guess it was just the act of boredom killing :ok Only 6% difference in SR's, and 6.21 in points gained from level stakes, so it's in no way phenomenal, but there you go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Loon, you can always meddle with past results to include some extra criteria that will improve them. But the key issue is whether the additional criteria that produced the better results actually has any logic to it. If it does, it is worth considering. If it doesn't, it will only have an affect of artificially improving the past results but none on future "real" bets. To take a very extreme example, you might look at a bunch of past results and find you can improve them by omitting any team whose first name begins with a vowel when they are playing on a Wednesday, unless they are playing another team whose first name begins with a vowel, in which case you should always include them, unless the game happens to fall in the first week of a month, in which case they should always be omitted. Ok, I said it was a very extreme example! But you get my drift. And believe me, I have seen people produce horse racing systems based on past results that have been artificially improved by bringing in totally illogical criteria not very far removed from that type of example. And then they wonder why they can't replicate the success of the past results when they start putting on money. I know that doesn't apply to you, but I'm just making a point. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Loon, you can always meddle with past results to include some extra criteria that will improve them. But the key issue is whether the additional criteria that produced the better results actually has any logic to it. If it does, it is worth considering. If it doesn't, it will only have an affect of artificially improving the past results but none on future "real" bets. To take a very extreme example, you might look at a bunch of past results and find you can improve them by omitting any team whose first name begins with a vowel when they are playing on a Wednesday, unless they are playing another team whose first name begins with a vowel, in which case you should always include them, unless the game happens to fall in the first week of a month, in which case they should always be omitted. Ok, I said it was a very extreme example! But you get my drift. And believe me, I have seen people produce horse racing systems based on past results that have been artificially improved by bringing in totally illogical criteria not very far removed from that type of example. And then they wonder why they can't replicate the success of the past results when they start putting on money. I know that doesn't apply to you, but I'm just making a point. :ok that's exactly the point i was trying to make in the post previous to this - it's easy to pick out bad results by messing with the selection process, and ESPECIALLY with this only having a sample size of 59, after all, how could I be sure that any changes that would be made (which won't be made...point to be made again) would have the same affect further down the road? Regardless of whether they were logical or illogical, any changes made at a sample size of only 59 really have to be taken with a huge seaful of salt.....and i'm not making changes. If I were to make changes after ONE day, that must speak volumes for my confidence in this, and i'm as confident as I can be from 59 selections...no need to change anything ;) But thanks for the advice :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Irritable Update Morning..... One selection for today, once it's been matched i'll post it up here (give it a few hours :tongue2) along with the staking spreadsheet and the selections spreadsheet....evening kickoff, should mean there'll be plenty enough time to take a look at it :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Irritable Selections (13/02/09) Right then, three days later, 1 more selection to give a *boost* to that sample size :) This one is in the Dutch Eredivisie, kicks off at 19:45 (UK Time...just to add, all the times I post are Hungarian times, so take off an hour). I got it matched at 2.56, odds seem to have dropped a couple of ticks to 2.54, so no major difference: DATETIME LEAGUE FIXTURE SELECTION LAY ODDS 13/02/09 20:45 Dutch Eredivisie SBV Willem II Tilburg v Stichting FC Utrecht LAY Stichting FC Utrecht 2.56 conv_846.xlsconv_847.zip Since there is only one selection, it'll be 7% of the bank, so a stake of £6.81 with a liability of £10.62. Should be posting up stats and spreadsheets early (early early) tomorrow morning, along with Saturday's selections... Good Luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 13, 2009 Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Shouldn't your liability be 7% of your bank, seeing as technically your liability is your stake? Looks to me like you've made the bet to win 7% of your bank, not risk it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Shouldn't your liability be 7% of your bank' date=' seeing as technically your liability is your stake? Looks to me like you've made the bet to win 7% of your bank, not risk it.[/quote'] it would be if I was working to liabilty - but i'm working to backers stakes...so that's 7% to backers stake (£6.81) which is a liabilty of £10.62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Irritable Aways SUMMARY - 13/02/09 (MATCHDAY 2) SBV Willem II Tilburg v Stichting FC Utrecht 0-2 :@ STARTING BANK £100.00 CURRENT BANK £86.61 P / L -£13.39 GROWTH -11% SELECTIONS 3 WINS 1 LOSSES 2 STRIKE RATE 33% AVERAGE ODDS 2.39 MINIMUM ODDS 2.28 MAXIMUM ODDS 2.56 MIN BANK 82% Well, a nice week to be sure - 1 win from 3....couldn't have wished for a better start to be honest ;) Expect more activity for the weekend.....an hour or three should see a handful of selections (and some more) that will hopefully have the bank in a better condition that it seems to be in right now :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Irritable Selections (14/02/09) Well, Valentine's Day.....at least it's no longer Friday 13th :loon There were originally a whopping 17 selections for today, but 5 of them have been postponed, leaving 12 for us. Because of the large number of selections, it now switches to the other staking calculation (where 80% of bank is divided by 1.5 and then divided by number of selections), giving us £3.85 to backers stake for each selection. DATE TIME LEAGUE FIXTURE SELECTION LAY ODDS 14/02/09 13:00 Turkish Süper Lig MKE Ankaragücü v Gaziantepspor LAY Gaziantepspor 2.62 14/02/09 15:30 German Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt v VfL Wolfsburg LAY VfL Wolfsburg 2.42 14/02/09 15:30 German Bundesliga Hannover 96 v VfB Stuttgart 1893 e.V. LAY VfB Stuttgart 1893 e.V. 2.58 14/02/09 15:45 Grecian Super League Levadiakos FC v PAOK FC LAY PAOK FC 2.32 14/02/09 16:00 English League Two Grimsby Town FC v Bury FC LAY Bury FC 2.36 14/02/09 16:00 English National Conference Weymouth FC v Stevenage Borough FC LAY Stevenage Borough FC 2.32 14/02/09 16:00 English National League Conference - North Farsley Celtic AFC v Alfreton Town FC LAY Alfreton Town FC 2.54 14/02/09 16:00 Italian Serie B Pisa Calcio v AS Livorno Calcio LAY AS Livorno Calcio 2.56 14/02/09 16:00 Scottish Second Division Stranraer FC v Arbroath FC LAY Arbroath FC 2.38 14/02/09 18:30 Spanish Segunda División Sevilla Fútbol Club II v Cordoba CF LAY Cordoba CF 2.56 14/02/09 19:00 French Ligue 1 Auxerre v Lille LAY Lille 2.54 14/02/09 20:00 Belgian Pro League KV Mechelen v Koninklijke Atletiek Associatie Gent LAY Koninklijke Atletiek Associatie Gent 2.52 conv_853.zipconv_854.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Gl to us:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways good luck fellas :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jquik Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Best of luck for tomorrow! It's a big day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Best of luck today :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Irritable Aways SUMMARY - 14/02/09 (MATCHDAY 3) Not a Valentine's Day to remember i'm afraid....must stop the rot, starting from tomorrow :cry Damn weird though, the HUGE volume of goals put in over the last few days (well, since I started posting)...looking at the past results, will tell you that it has pretty much DOUBLED since I started posting (50 goals in 14 games....which before was 128 in 57 games). And this influx of goals is obviously the big reason for the diasppointing results (no sh*t you'll all think), but i'm currently looking at this, because i'm sure you'll agree, double goals is not a good thing for this system! For your records...: DATETIME LEAGUE FIXTURE 14/02/09 13:00 Turkish Süper Lig MKE Ankaragücü v Gaziantepspor :D 14/02/09 15:30 German Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt v VfL Wolfsburg :@ 14/02/09 15:30 German Bundesliga Hannover 96 v VfB Stuttgart 1893 e.V. :D 14/02/09 15:45 Grecian Super League Levadiakos FC v PAOK FC :@ 14/02/09 16:00 English League Two Grimsby Town FC v Bury FC :@ 14/02/09 16:00 English National Conference Weymouth FC v Stevenage Borough FC :@ 14/02/09 16:00 English National League Conference - North Farsley Celtic AFC v Alfreton Town FC PP 14/02/09 16:00 Italian Serie B Pisa Calcio v AS Livorno Calcio :D 14/02/09 16:00 Scottish Second Division Stranraer FC v Arbroath FC :@ 14/02/09 18:30 Spanish Segunda División Sevilla Fútbol Club II v Cordoba CF :@ 14/02/09 19:00 French Ligue 1 Auxerre v Lille :D 14/02/09 20:00 Belgian Pro League KV Mechelen v Gent :D STARTING BANK £100.00 CURRENT BANK £76.43 P / L -£23.57 GROWTH -12% SELECTIONS 14 WINS 6 LOSSES 8 STRIKE RATE 43% AVERAGE ODDS 2.46 MINIMUM ODDS 2.28 MAXIMUM ODDS 2.62 MIN BANK 21% Tomorrow selections will be a little different (well, same format 'n all), i'm widening the odds boundaries, because those higher (3 to 6) keep on performing well, in complete contrast to the lowers, which are doing their admirable best to screw up a pleasant start to the year :tongue2 Sunday's have a 93% record so far, so one of the best days for selections...i'm expecting that trend to continue tomorrow....:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Obviously, we don't know your selection criteria. But whatever it is, it strikes me that it is coming up with too many matches on one day. I've always found that, whatever the sport, a few quality bets being highlighted is, in the long run, always more likely to pay dividends than a large number of selections. It might be less fun, or less sexy, but it will give you a much better chance of being profitable. I really think you should reconsider the criteria (whatever it is) to give you fewer selections, but hopefully just those of most quality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jquik Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Must be gutting to spend so much time on a system, release it on the forum and have a shitty day like today... However fella, I can guarantee the difference between a first time system and one posted by yourself is that everyone on this forum will wait for results as they know that today was just 'one of those days'. Variance happens to the best of us and I think you can safely chalk down yesterday's results as an off day. It's extremly obvious how much time and effort you spent on this from your posts and it clearly shows! Look at the profit from you LSS system before... In other words, everyone who follows your picks is following for a reason! They know you know what you are doing. Chin up and best of luck with tomorrow's selections and future picks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Obviously' date=' we don't know your selection criteria. But whatever it is, it strikes me that it is coming up with too many matches on one day. I've always found that, whatever the sport, a few quality bets being highlighted is, in the long run, always more likely to pay dividends than a large number of selections. It might be less fun, or less sexy, but it will give you a much better chance of being profitable. I really think you should reconsider the criteria (whatever it is) to give you fewer selections, but hopefully just those of most quality.[/quote'] you're probably right - two reasons why I have so many selections on any given day (but usually that given day would be a saturday if you want to see lots of selections)....the first is because I wanted to have a bigger sample size, and the second is because the risk is spread out among the games, instead of just resting on one. But as has been shown today (well, yesterday)....no point spreading the risk if the results aren't coming in...won't make too much of a positive difference! Quality should definitely be over quality, and you're' 100% right about that, sometimes I just get "caught up" in the "biggest sample size possible" idea (and really, those selections so far were because of that....obviously most were all winners, so good anyway - but I felt it was important to have a large-ish starting size). Based on what you've said (and what i'd already decided)....doors are open to higher odds, and i'll tighten the criteria so that silly games aren't getting through. Having done that (just now), selection size reduced by almost half (but not quite)....and strike rate goes up...at least some good news for the week is that over the last few days got into some frikkin difficult backtesting (for lots of reasons) and now can add end of november and december to selections. Which restores the sample size to 60 with the tightened filters. I'm going to post selections for Sunday shortly, and then this evening (or tomorrow) i'll post up the updated selections (with the updated selection criteria applied). When they are seen...just know that I didn't look at losers and try and remove them (that's futile....you'll be damned to hell for messing with results like that :D), but rather looked at points gained at home/away, goals scored home/away (because of that wretched double goals nonsense), actual position in form table and ratings generated based on home and away total league perfromance (ooooooooooooh....did I just mention some selection criteria....:tongue2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Must be gutting to spend so much time on a system, release it on the forum and have a shitty day like today... However fella, I can guarantee the difference between a first time system and one posted by yourself is that everyone on this forum will wait for results as they know that today was just 'one of those days'. Variance happens to the best of us and I think you can safely chalk down yesterday's results as an off day. It's extremly obvious how much time and effort you spent on this from your posts and it clearly shows! Look at the profit from you LSS system before... In other words, everyone who follows your picks is following for a reason! They know you know what you are doing. Chin up and best of luck with tomorrow's selections and future picks! Thanks for the encouragement ;) To be honest, it's more than gutting....especially since i'd say it was more of a bad start since posting than just a bad Saturday. As with the rest of you, i'm expecting it to get over this hump and prove it actually is responsible for those pretty decent looking selections that I posted up in the first thread - the sooner the better. Sunday, now that would be a nice day to have it back on track. First winning day to kick off the rest, etc....:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Irritable Selections (15/02/09) Selections for today then, just the three...spread out (timewise) so non are on at the same time possibly creating a situation of recalculating stakes after each match....i'm considering it, will post decision after first match :tongue2 (since the stake for the first match will be the same regardless): DATE TIME LEAGUE FIXTURE SELECTION LAY ODDS 15/02/09 14:30 Italian Lega Pro 1 - Girone A AC Legnano v Novara Calcio LAY Novara Calcio 2.38 15/02/09 17:00 Spanish Segunda B - Group 4 CD Linares v Real Betis II LAY Real Betis II 3.70 15/02/09 21:00 French Ligue 1 Monaco FC v Marseille LAY Marseille 2.52 Stakes starting off at £5.35 (since bank is now at £76.43) Good Luck :hope:hope:hopeconv_855.zipconv_856.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways it still scored 5 from 11 which aint bad when you're going against the trend, very encouraging results imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Hi Loon, just something for you to ponder on when you get back...I started with very similar bank to you yesterday but my betfair p/l shows -£14.66 for the day. Is it possible your calculations have gone haywire at some point:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Hi Loon, just something for you to ponder on when you get back...I started with very similar bank to you yesterday but my betfair p/l shows -£14.66 for the day. Is it possible your calculations have gone haywire at some point:unsure haywire? who knows....don't think so, but i'll take a look at get back to you on it :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways you're probably right - two reasons why I have so many selections on any given day (but usually that given day would be a saturday if you want to see lots of selections)....the first is because I wanted to have a bigger sample size, and the second is because the risk is spread out among the games, instead of just resting on one. But as has been shown today (well, yesterday)....no point spreading the risk if the results aren't coming in...won't make too much of a positive difference! I'd agree with you that you should have more bets than less (providing all other things are equal) in a system like this so that your variance is reduced. If you know you have a winning system, and you have a bank of £200, I'd much rather stake 20 * £10 bets than one bet of £200. Your long term P&L might well be the same, but it'll save your blood pressure and greatly reduce the risk of ruin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways I'd agree with you that you should have more bets than less (providing all other things are equal) in a system like this so that your variance is reduced. If you know you have a winning system, and you have a bank of £200, I'd much rather stake 20 * £10 bets than one bet of £200. Your long term P&L might well be the same, but it'll save your blood pressure and greatly reduce the risk of ruin. I guess it depends whether it's a backing system or laying...but personally, initial thoughts were always about having as BIG a sample size as possible, as you say....to reduce variance. Days like yesterday should be distance (albeit not too pleasant) memories. But the staking plan i'm currently using, i don't think it likes days like yesterday too much (nor would any staking plan i guess). I'm always at odds with myself over large quantity of quality selections or lesser quantity, but even better quality.... Hopefully this thread, these coming selections - it will help make a decision on which should be best for this system. I do think there must be a better staking plan available which doesn't penalise for having only a few selections without putting the bank at too much risk, while at the same time ensuring not too much of the bank is risked on a day with a large handful of selections... Got any up your sleeve? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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