fintron Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 This was a simple system I used around 12 months ago but as the turf meetings trickled back in and the amount of all-weather racing was reduced I wound it down. I also wanted the freedom to pick whatever horses I wanted, without being tied down by the rules of a system. However, 12 months on, I want to see if the same system still finds its fair share of winners. Last time I did this backing horses to win failed to produce a profit although backing all horses to place on the Tote was a bit more successful. The rules of the system are simple; Look only at AW races i.e. Kempton, Wolverhampton, Great Leighs, Lingfield or Southwell. I may try the system out on Dundalk too now that circuit has sprung up. Back horses that have recorded a CD win within their last three runs. I use Sporting Life's definition of a CD winner (CD next to horses name on racecard) which is a little looser than the RP definition. For example, Autumn Morning is a CD winner at Wolv today according to Sporting life, even though its win came over 1 m 1f and today it runs over 1 m 1f 103 yards. Take no notice of differences in race type. For example a horse's CD win may have come in a claimer and it may now be running in a handicap. It doesn't matter. Ignore any other changes such as a weight hike, different jockey booking, or application of headgear etc. This is designed to be a quick and easy, rough and ready system, that requires as minimal form reading as possible and can be followed practically at a glance. The reason for picking horses that have won within their last three runs is that they have showed some decent, recent ability. If you include a horse that has recorded a CD win at any point in its career I found the system to be less effective. When qualifying selections were thin on the ground as the flat season started last season I ended up bending the rules, and it was to the detriment of the system. If a horse has a recent CD win then knowledge of the circuit is fresh in their mind if you like. We are at the point in the AW season now where a CD win in the last three runs probably means within the last few months, as many horses are kept on the go and are likely to hold their form if this is the case. There may be some that recorded their win at the end of last season, so although they have a win in their last three, it may have come many months ago. Still back such runners to avoid missing out on potentially lucrative wins. Buscador the other day was one such animal. He hadn't raced much of late but placed in 2nd at 16/1. That would have been a kick in the balls had it gone in! Today's qualifiers.... 2.10 Wolv - Dancing Deano - 5/1 Bet 365 2.40 Wolv - Autumn Morning (goes down as a CD winner on Sport Life even though last win came over 103 yards shoter, but I used Sport Life's CD definiations last time so sticking with them here even though, strictly speaking, he isn't a CD winner over this exact trip). 5/2 Bet 365 3.10 Wolv - Kheley 4/1 SJ 3.40 Wolv - Hold The Bucks 4/1 Bet 365/Mullitovermaurice 8/1 SJ A possible dilemma arises if two horses qualify in the same race, such as the 3.40 today. do you ignore the race completely or back both selections? Do you forecast the pair? I never really found out the best way to tackle such scenario's, but for the time being I will split 1 pt stakes and see how it goes, providing it is sensible to do at the odds. Some races where they may have four or five qualifiers may mean it is best to ignore the race altogether though. I'll calculate returns to advised stakes, SP and include the Tote place returns to see if backing to place proves more profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Promising start FINTRON :ok 2 placed and a decent £3.70 return from Multiovermaurice , maybe concentrating on the outsider might be the way of the races with multiple qualifiers ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Cheers jtw, hopefully there will be a few more races with multiple qualifiers then we can start to see what the best way of dealing with such races is. results for today: Dancing Deano, 5th, SP 8/1 Autumn Morning, 5th, SP 2/1 Kheley, 2nd, SP 5/1, Tote Place return £1.60 Hold The Bucks, 4th SP 3/1 Mullitovermaurice 2nd (btn by a short head!) SP 17/2, Tote Place return £3.70. Results to date: Profit to advised stakes (1 pt per race): -4 pts Profit to SP (1 pt per race): -4 pts Profit if selections backed to place on the Tote: +0.30 pt Tote Place returns calculated to 1 pt per race, return figures indicated above include original stake. Day 2 selections 2.10 Great Leighs - Desert Strike 2.40 Great Leighs - Milne Bay 1.00 Southwell - Spic 'n Span 1.30 Southwell - Gayanula 2.30 Southwell - La Capriosa 3.00 Southwell - Isabella's Fancy 4.00 Southwell - Tri Chara, Crocodile Bay I'll post early prices up in morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Oh forgot to say in my first post.... because the Tote place returns can be like £1.10 for odds on selections,when I ran this system before I would back any odds on selections to win only, and they had a high success rate, instead of risking £1 to win 10p profit on it from a place. Tomorrow, Milne Bay is likely to be odds on, so from tomorrow onwards, any horses that are odds on in the betting will be backed to win only on the Tote. I'll include any winnings in with the Tote place profit/loss figure, but will also keep a tally for how many selections are backed this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 13, 2009 Author Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system 2.10 Great Leighs - Desert Strike 5/6 Bet 365 (for Tote purposes, back to win not place) 2.40 Great Leighs - Milne Bay 5/6 Bet 365 (for Tote purposes, back to win not place) 1.00 Southwell - Spic 'n Span 10/1 Bet 365 (bog) 1.30 Southwell - Gayanula 7/1 Stan James (bog) 2.30 Southwell - La Capriosa 11/2 Boylesports (bog) 3.00 Southwell - Isabella's Fancy 9/1 Boylesports (bog) 4.00 Southwell - Tri Chara (5/2 Bet 365), Crocodile Bay (13/2 SJ) - 0.5 pt on each to win at adv prices, and for Tote Purposes, 1 pt Tote place on each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 13, 2009 Author Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Not a bad day today with Desert Strike (dh) and Milne Bay winning and Croccy Bay getting done by only a neck. Maybe it is worth re-investing some money on this afterall! Both winners paid out on the best odds guarantee as slight drifters. Bet 365's rules for dead heaters are to pay out on half the stake so for Desert Strike I had 0.5 pt on at 11/10 (bog). Spic and Span was a non-runner. - Desert Strike, 1st (d.h.), SP 11/10, Tote win return: £1.10 (incredibly the tote place would have paid more at £1.60 for some reason :unsure). - Milne Bay, 1st, SP 10/11, Tote win return: £1.90 - Gayanula, 2nd, SP 12/1, Tote place: £1.80 - La Capriosa, 5th SP 8/1 - Isabella's Fancy, 3rd, SP 8/1, Tote place: £3.40 - Tri Chara, 4th, SP 15/8 - Crocodile Bay, 2nd, SP 6/1, Tote place: £4.40 results for today: Profit to advised stakes: -3.05 Profit to SP: -3.05 Profit on Tote Bets: +£5.60 Results overall Profit to advised stakes: -7.05 pts Profit to SP: -7.05 pts Profit on Tote bets: +£5.90 (= +49 % yield so far, lets hope this continues) Number of win only Tote bets struck/won: 2/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Couple of nice Tote place returns there FINTRON , a ggod idea to go for the win with the shorter odds selections even with that result with DESERT STRIKE :loon Interesting to see the outsider of the two manage a return in the 4:00 but as you say it's early days :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 13, 2009 Author Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system I think your suggestion about the multiple selections could be sensible jtw. I'll keep posting the results so we have a few more to go by and then can make a decision. Tomorrows qualifiers: 3.25 Ling - Nickel Silver 6.50 Kemp - Sherjawy 8.20 Kemp - Mission Control 8.50 Kemp - Dinner Date 9.20 Kemp - Lexlenos Some of these conflict the my actual selections I will be posting and backing but i'll post up the prices regardless and see how they get on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system 3.25 Ling - Nickel Silver - 5/4 Bet 365 (bog) 6.50 Kemp - Sherjawy - 4/1 Boylesports (bog) 8.20 Kemp - Mission Control - 11/2 Bet 365 (bog) 8.50 Kemp - Dinner Date - 5/1 SJ (bog) 9.20 Kemp - Lexlenos - 11/10 SJ (bog) All bets to 'place' on the Tote today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system 3.25 Ling - Nickel Silver - 5/4 Bet 365 (bog) 6.50 Kemp - Sherjawy - 4/1 Boylesports (bog) 8.20 Kemp - Mission Control - 11/2 Bet 365 (bog) 8.50 Kemp - Dinner Date - 5/1 SJ (bog) 9.20 Kemp - Lexlenos - 11/10 SJ (bog) All bets to 'place' on the Tote today. Yesterday's results: Mission Control was a non-runner. Although I said to back Lexlenos to place, a subsequent NR meant Tote no longer offered place betting on that race. Lexlenos will go down as a Tote win selection as a result, and thus is a loser. Nickel Silver 1st, SP 7/4, Tote Place: £1.10 Sherjawy 3rd, SP 9/4, Tote Place: £1.60 Dinner Date 4th (nk out the places!), SP 6/1 Lexlenos 2nd, SP 8/11 (there was no Tote place market in the end due to a NR, so had to be backed win only in afraid). Yesterday's results: Profit to advised stakes: -1.25 Profit to SP: -1.25 Profit on Tote bets: -1.3 Results overall Profit to advised stakes: -4.3 Profit to SP: -4.3 Profit on Tote bets: +£4.30 Number of win only Tote bets struck/won: 2/3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Today's qualifiers 1.00 Southwell - The Geester 4/1 SJ (bog) 2.30 Southwell - Mozayada 7/4 Bet 365 (bog)/ Bookiebasher Babe 6/1 Hills (bog) 3.00 Southwell - Lithaam 3/1 Bet 365 (bog)/ Spic 'n Span 11/2 Bet 365 (bog) 6.50 Great Leighs - Leading Edge 8/1 SJ (bog) 8.20 Great Leighs - Ivory Silk 6/4 Bet 365 (bog) 9.20 Great Leighs - Folio 9/2 Bet 365 (bog) Tote place on all selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Definately showing promise on the TOTE front with returns from 6 out of 8 selections today . Keep it going mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 16, 2009 Author Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Thanks jtw. This time around the results are showing pretty much what they did a year ago, that a lot of the selections place, but backing to win doesn't produce a profit. I'm a little miffed about some of the Tote place returns, £1.10 for horses with an SP around 7/2 ish, so I'll have to consider the options for maximising place returns - taking Ppower/Blue Sq place only prices, or maybe trying Betfair?? I think there is mileage in this simple system though, I just need to spend a bit more time working on it to maximise the potential its shown with horses TBP. :hope Todays qualifiers: 1.50 Lingfield - Mutamared 4/5 SJ 2.55 Lingfield - The Cayterers 12/1 Blue Sq/ I Confess 5/1 Bet 365 - 0.5 pt on each 6.50 Wolv - Templetuohy Max 14/1 Bet 365 0.33 pt/Rambling Dancer 10/1 Paddypower 0.33 pt /Moment of Clarity 10/1 Hills (bog) 0.33 pt 8.20 Wolv - Princess Valerina 7/4 Hills 8.50 Wolv - Sarah's Art 7/4 Bet 365 0.5 pt/Marvin Gardens 10/1 Bet 365 0.5 pt All Tote bets to place, except Mutamared, which is win only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 16, 2009 Author Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system For future reference PPower place only prices: Mutamared 1/10 The Cayterers 5/2 I Confess Evs Templetuohy Max 5/2 Rambling Dancer 5/2 Moment of Clarity 2/1 Princess Valerina 2/5 Sarah's Art 4/11 Marvin Gardens 2/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 16, 2009 Author Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Current betfair prices TBP for future ref too... Mutamared 1.19 The Cayterers 3.45 I Confess 2.3 Templetuohy 3.75 Rambling Dancer 3.55 Moment of Clarity 4.7 Princess Valerina 1.5 Sarah's Art 1.48 Marvin Gardens 3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 17, 2009 Author Share Posted January 17, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system A couple of winners yesterday including a 14's shot. Mixed success with the Tote. Today's qualifiers 12.45 Ling - Elusive Ronnie 8/1 Skybet 2.20 Ling - Hellbender 11/2 Skybet 2.55 Ling - Internationaldebut 7/2 Skybet 0.5 pt/The Game 9/2 Skybet 0.35 pt/ Little Edward 10/1 Skybet 0.15 pt 3.30 Ling - True Brittania 7/1 Skybet 4.00 Ling - Titan Triumph 5/2 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 17, 2009 Author Share Posted January 17, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system TBP on betfair, no PPower prices up yet 12.45 Ling - Elusive Ronnie 2.62 2.20 Ling - Hellbender 3.05 2.55 Ling - Internationaldebut 1.85 The Game 2.12 Little Edward 4.1 3.30 Ling - True Brittania 2.86 4.00 Ling - Titan Triumph 1.68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system 3 places today and , similar to yesterday , it was the outsider who managed a return in the 2.55 :unsure. I would think that overall taking the betfair place odds will provide better returns FINTRON . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Hope FINTRON doesn't mind me posting up todays qualifiers as it's getting near post time for the 1st - 3.20 SUPERNOVERRE b/f place odds 3.65 3.50 HIGHLY REGAL b/f place odds 1.16 4.50 RIVER KIROV b/f place odds 1.38 , MUSICAL SCRIPT b/f place odds 2.04 Really interested to see how progresses with regards to Betfair place odds. FINTRON , i know you say that it doesn't matter which type of race the last C/D was but did you notice any particular difference , returns wise , between HANDICAPS and NON-HANDICAPS during the turf season ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 18, 2009 Author Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system thanks jtw, got dragged out shopping this morning and forgot to post! I've been busy over the weekend so got a bit slack updating the results over the past few days but will get on top of it in the next few days. Todays results: Supernoverre - unp Highly Regal (1st) SP 9/4 Tote place, £1.60 River Kirov (7th), Musical Script (2nd) tote place, £1.60 As for your question RE race type, I will try dig out the old results and check. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 18, 2009 Author Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Tomorrows qualifiers 3.00 Wolv - Hi Spec 4.00 Wolv - Carnivore/Willier Ever 5.00 Wolv - Supercast/Ours/Ahlawy/Prince Golan 5.30 Wolv - Bailieborough Will post up place prices and deal with the 5.00 tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 18, 2009 Author Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system can't find the old spreadsheet but got an old table of the early results from word.... http://img213.imageshack.us/my.php?image=awtable1wd8.jpg http://img213.imageshack.us/my.php?image=awtable2oy0.jpg http://img135.imageshack.us/my.php?image=awtable3ex9.jpg The rest of the selections are on my website at this link: http://www.ukhorses4courses.co.uk/thesystem.htm There are results here, there and everywhere between those links, so I'll sit down and collate them and try and then go through. I can't find records for the Tote places, so will have re-find them through Sporting Life. Will post them up later this week and then combine all of those results with this fresh set and then look to refine the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Interesting stuff there mate and what a start !! 5 winners from the first 5 selections . Did you notice that yet again it was the outsider of the 2 who finished in the frame in the 4.50 today ? Some amount of work you've set yourself but good luck :ok and i really think you could be onto something that could be a steady , profitable system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Did you notice that yet again it was the outsider of the 2 who finished in the frame in the 4.50 today ? Yeah, this is happening quite a bit after you initially pointed it out near the start of the thread. I was just reading through my old rules and remembered that in the past I ignored any races when there were multiple qualifiers. Today's prices TBP betfair: 4.00 Wolv - Carnivore 1.74/Willie Ever 4.2 5.00 Wolv - Supercast 2.08/Ours 4.3/Ahlawy 1.94/Prince Golan 3.95 5.30 Wolv - Bailieborough 2.06 All Tote bets today to place. All selections will be recorded for the purposes for the trial but as pointed out above it looks like the best way to go today when backing for real would be to back Willie Ever and Ours in the races where multiple selections exist. Hi Spec is a NR in the 3.00. I'll look over all the results again when i've got a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Ours and Bailebrough both placed (Tote place payouts £5.30 and £1.70 respectively) for a good day. Going with the outsider when multiple selections arise seems to be the way forward here. Tomorrows qualifiers from Southwell: 1.00 Jordi Roper/City for Conquest 1.30 Run Free 2.00 Mambo Sun 2.30 Nightjar 3.00 Il Grande Ardone 4.00 Cause for Applause All selections to Tote place, in the 1.00, pick whichever is the outsider when the morning prices are posted up first thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Ours and Bailebrough both placed (Tote place payouts £5.30 and £1.70 respectively) for a good day. Going with the outsider when multiple selections arise seems to be the way forward here. Tomorrows qualifiers from Southwell: 1.00 Jordi Roper/City for Conquest 1.30 Run Free 2.00 Mambo Sun 2.30 Nightjar 3.00 Il Grande Ardone 4.00 Cause for Applause All selections to Tote place, in the 1.00, pick whichever is the outsider when the morning prices are posted up first thing. Betfair prices TBP 1.00 CfC is a NR, Jordi Roper 1.68 1.30 Run Free 4.3 2.00 Mambo Sun 3.0 2.30 Nightjar 2.42 3.00 Il Grande Ardone 2.64 4.00 Cause for Applause 2.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system These are the results to date making the assumption that in races where there were multiple qualifers, only one horse was backed - the one with the biggest odds (determined by the first show in the morning - best prices available). Bets: 42 No. of winners: 8 (S/R: 19 %) No. of horses placed: 24 (S/R: 57 %) Profit (all horses backed to place on the Tote except for horses odds on at the first show, which were highlighted as win only bets on the Tote): +12.8 pts (1 pt level stakes). Yield: +30 % The full spreadsheet is at this link: http://img141.imageshack.us/my.php?image=awnewresultsas7.jpg :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Tomorrow's qualifiers: 2.20 Wolv - Sarah's Art 3.20 Wolv - Heathyard's Pride 3.50 Wolv - Willie Ever/Plush/Watson's Bay 5.20 Wolv - A Big Sky Brewing/Milne Bay/Romantic Verse 5.50 Wolv - Stargazy 8.20 Kemp - Zuwaar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system These are the results to date making the assumption that in races where there were multiple qualifers, only one horse was backed - the one with the biggest odds (determined by the first show in the morning - best prices available). Bets: 42 No. of winners: 8 (S/R: 19 %) No. of horses placed: 24 (S/R: 57 %) Profit (all horses backed to place on the Tote except for horses odds on at the first show, which were highlighted as win only bets on the Tote): +12.8 pts (1 pt level stakes). Yield: +30 % The full spreadsheet is at this link: http://img141.imageshack.us/my.php?image=awnewresultsas7.jpg :) So definately a part of the system worth looking at when trying to maximise profits . Quite a small example of course but nevertheless pointing in the right direction imo . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Yeah, those results are only over a short period of time, I doubt the yield will remain that high after a month or so of trialling. Still, a promising start like you say. I haven't had chance to look at handicaps vs non-handicas yet jtw, been a little busy, but haven't forgotten. Todays betfair tbp prices: 2.20 Wolv - Sarah's Art 1.35 3.20 Wolv - Heathyard's Pride - NR 3.50 Wolv - Willie Ever 5.4 5.20 Wolv - Romantic Verse 3.95 5.50 Wolv - Stargazy 2.26 8.20 Kemp - Zuwaar 1.57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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