New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Goodwood: Shankardeh 1pt e/w 13/2 Boylesports (1/4 odds 123) Shankardeh is another superbly well bred staying filly from His Highness The Aga Khan. She looks to be improving with both racing and the further she goes. She faces some stiff oposition opposition here, however her form looks solid, particularly her last time out third at Saint-cloud behind Testosterone who won her previous outing in a Group Three. The form of Shankardeh's third has been franked as the fifth Danedream won the Grosser Preis Von Berlin on Sunday comfortably. And the race at Saint-cloud looks to have been run at a good pace as the time is below standard, which gives more reason to hope the form will stand up. Trainer Mikel Delzangles is perhaps best known for winning the 2000 Guineas with Makfi, so he knows what it takes to win this side of the Channel.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Goodwood: Tazahum 1pt win 5/1 William Hill Western Aristocat's form has been franked by Strong Suit running well in the Group One Jean Prat at Chantilly and he will be hard to beat, however Tazahum may be worthy of support even though he has to carry a four pound penalty here.Tazahum had been on an upward curve after two wins at Sandown. He then probably went two furlongs too far against Pisco Sour at Royal Ascot even allowing for not getting the best of runs. If the distance was the issue rather than Tazahum's ability, and that would seem reasonable, then he is worth another go here. Sir Michael Stoute has his string in much better form than earlier in the season too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 3:45 Goodwood: Victoire De Lyphar 1pt win 20/1 William Hill & Edinburgh Knight 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Victoire De Lyphar has a fair bit going for him. He is trained by David Nicholls who has a fine record in these big handicap sprints. He has proven course form, he was only touched off by his stablemate here last year, and Victoire de Lyphar looks like a horse that has been aimed at this race. His last run was on soft ground, even so that was a modest effort. However with a sounder surface and several factors in his favour he could go well at a price. Edinburgh Knight won well last time out, when quickening up nicely to cut through the field at Newcastle, for such an eye catching run a four pound increase looks fair. Trainer Paul D'Arcy has been going well over the past couple of weeks and Jim Crowley keeps the ride. A lightly raced sprinter in form, he looks likely to run well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Goodwood: Free For All 1pt win 18/1 Stan James A wide open handicap, however a small interest in Free For All may pay dividends. He is lightly raced and from the limited evidence available goes well on an undulating track. He also seems to race quite prominently which is also a plus. Last time out he had what appeared to be a bit of a stop start run and he could still be a luttle better than that run at Epsom. Free For All was down the field at Royal Ascot although he did lead at one point before the extra furlong and the softer going could have taken their toll. Reunited with Richard Hughes here who rode Free For All to victory at Lingfield. Richard Hughes has a decent record when linking up with Sylvester Kirk.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Goodwood: Mystery Star 1pt e/w 25/1 Paddy Power Mystery Star has a low strike rate on turf (the opposite on the all weather) yet he seems to be getting better with age and when stepped up to staying trips. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he ran well at Chester in the Vase. His sole win on turf came here at Goodwood, and with the firmer going in his favour he could put a disappointing outing at Newcastle in the Northumberland Plate behind him. Reading the stories in the Racing Post get the impression Mystery Star is quite well thought of by Mark Tompkins, and there is a good chance his charge could outrun his price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Not much action after being away for a couple of weeks during the month .... Figures for the 1st January to the 31st July 2011 Points: Staked 218 Returned 357.14 Profit 139.14 ROI 63.83% Bets: Struck 173 Profitable 31 Strike rate 17.92 %

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:25 Ascot: Ile De Re 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 Not a lot of British form to go on, however Ile De Re ran respectably at the Royal meeting when keeping on in sixth in the Duke Of Edinburgh. The extra half mile could mile could play to Ile De Re strengths and he will appreciate the good to soft going. Ile De Re is having his first run for Ian Williams and he has been known to improve his new inmates. Yutaka Take has a decent record round Ascot

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Ascot: Seelo 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 Seelo could be worth another chance to prove his a little better than his last couple of runs as his win at Pontefract was quite taking. He pulled well clear of the oddly named A Boy Named Suzi in June, who won next time albeit a low grade maiden. And looking through the form of some of the other runners in that race the well beaten fifth, Watercourse, went in next time too. In his next run Seelo was beaten at odds on by Ivan Vasilevich on the all weather at Kempton although Seelo meets that rival on better terms today. In his last run Seelo was slightly hampered at Newmarket behind Fulgar. There is reason to believe there could be some improvement over this extra two furlongs, particularly if he is taken to the front and makes the running like at Pontefract. John Gosden is in cracking form at the moment.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Newmarket: World Heritage 1pt win 25/1 Bet365 Looking at this race last night, it looked as if Pekan Star and Kirthill held the leading chances and were priced up accordingly. One or two of the outsiders at the bigger priced horses such as Tiger Reigns and just possibly World Heritage would be of interest, the latter if he recaptured some of his half decent French form. With a couple of nibbles at big prices (more than just an adjustment for non runner) it may be worth a speculative interest. World Heritage has dropped now to 95 and this is a less challenging outing than some of his recent starts.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

Figures for the 1st January to the 31st July 2011 Points: Staked 218 Returned 357.14 Profit 139.14 ROI 63.83%

Terriffic work Steve, this thread doesn't get the credit it deserves IMHO :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Fin - appreciate that coming from you.... and one more today... 2:40 Newmarket: Reem 1pt win 18/1 Sportingbet Reem is very hard to weigh up with some really good form at Meydan in Group and Listed races. She went well on the turf as well as the tapeta and although the steep uphill finish here will be a contrast to what she is used to, Reem is competitive from seven up to ten furlongs so this stiff track should not be a problem. Reem is interesting because she is so hard to assess, and at the price its worth chancing to see if she can bring her class in to play. She also goes well fresh. Pat Cosgrave who rode Reem a couple of times in the winter is aboard again today.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 Ripon: Addictive Dream 1pt win 11/1 Stan James & Confessional 1pt win 14/1 Bet365 Addictive Dream is a course and distance winner and looks worth an interest here. The form of that race on the 1st June has a very solid look with those in behind Grissom, Red Cape, and Medici Time even the fifth Saucy Brown going on to run well or win subsequently. Since then Addictive Dream has been running in Class 2 races like today and aquitting himself well. After not getting a clear run at Ascot last time out, he steps back up to six furlongs here and the cheek pieces are on again. Confessional ran really well at Goodwood two weeks ago to finish less than two lengths behind Son of The Cat after having to switch from a poorish draw. That was his first run at six for some time and he is certainly less exposed at this trip. Although up three pounds here a reproduction of that last run will see Confessional go close here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:15 Newmarket: Royal Blush 1pt win 11/1 William Hill & Emperors Pearl 1pt win 9/1 Paddy Power This is a wide open race and it may be worth giving a couple who ran below par on their latest outings another chance. Royal Blush had no real chance when her saddle slipped coming out of the stalls at Goodwood last time. Prior to that, this daughter of Royal Applause had looked very promising with two good runs on the neighbouring Rowley mile course, with a second to Princess Banu and then beating Lemon Rock. With a proven ability to act on a very similar course, Royal blush is a bigger price today than she would have been had things gone better at Goodwood. Emperors Pearl is another that if you pass over her last race would probably be a shorter price. Her penultimate run at Warwick reads well with the form being boosted by several of the runners, even the sixth Tingo In The Tale who went off at 66/1 went in next time. Emperors Pearl will have to run better than her last time out disappointment, however it may be worth forgiving her. This stiff track should be ideal for her with stamina in her pedigree.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Wednesday 3:40 York: Twice Over 1pt win 7/1 Paddy Power Await The Dawn lines up here looking to extend his winning run to five. Its hard to fault what he has done and there is loads of potential and scope for improvement yet he has not been tested at the highest level. Whereas, Sir Henry Cecil's Twice Over ran well over course and distance when winning last time out and only went down by half a length to Rip Van Winkle in this race last year. Given Twice Over's proven form at this level and course his price looks big, even allowing for the presence of stablemate Midday, who now looks likely to run.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Wednesday 3:05 York: Al Kazeem 1pt e/w 20/1 William Hill (1/5 123) Hopefully Al Kazeem will run here, he was due out earlier in the month but was withdrawn as there was a chance he would be sold to Hong Kong. Its been a long wait for Al Kazeem to appear again since a really promising performance at Newbury on Lockinge day. The form of the handicap won by Al Kazeem has been franked by all of those who made the frame and even some of those further down the field. Labarinto, Fulgar, Rastaban, and Dominant have all gone on to win good races. There is a concern with Al Kazeem being off so long, however Roger Charlton could not be in better form. He had an across the card treble the other day and is 10 for 17 in the last fortnight. If he runs, the 20/1 about Al Kazem could look a big price come 3:15pm on Wednesday afternoon; worth chancing.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 York: Requinto 1pt win 7/1 William Hill Requinto gets a massive age allowance here and its interesting he has been supplemented for this race. And his Coolmore owners are extreemly shrewd and they would not be running unless they felt Requinto had a strong chance. Requinto has also shown his best form over five furlongs and has winning form on a yielding surface. Last time out at Goodwood Requinto had to overcome some trouble in running before running out a good winner. Looking at that race the form looks pretty solid, Burwaaz the second and Charles The Great the third had both run well previously and the Molecomb was run in a decent time.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 York: Vulcanite 1pt win 43/1 Betfair Vulcanite might be something of a dark horse here, and while there may be a slight question mark against his ability to stay this trip, there are enough positives to think that his current odds are too big. He handles the prevailing conditions and he has a high strike rate with four wins from eight runs. After running up a four timer as a three year old Vulcanite was thought good enough to run in the French St Ledger. That didn't work out, however it would seem to indicate that his trainer believes Vulcanite will get today's trip. This season Vulcanite went well over a mile and a half Listed handicap at Pontefract. That run saw Vulcanite go off a similar price as Tactician and Fox Hunt next time at York in the John Smiths Silver Cup and they reoppose today. After the York race trainer Ralph Beckett felt he ran Vulcanite too soon after his Pontefract effort. Rested up since, Vulcanite could go close if he stays.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 York: Lyric Street 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 & Halifax 1pt win 25/1 William Hill Lyric Street represents a powerful combination and he looks as though he will be all the better for this extra distance of ground. His form in a sales race at Newmarket has worked out with several of those who finished around him going on to run well in Group races. Reported to have hung a couple of times, however with Montjeu in his pedigree thats almost to be expected. Hopeful of further improvement from such a lightly raced colt. The blinkers need to work for Halifax, however if they do and he recaptures some of his early season form he could surprise. A maiden win and a handicap victory saw him take his chance in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, so he was clearly well thought of. Some of Mark Johnstons can sometimes bounce back to form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 3:20 Goodwood: Poet's Voice 1pt win 7/2 William Hill Poets Voice's last run was in the Dubai World Cup and that was probably a little too far for him. However, the way he won this race last year over the mile stays in the memory and while Strong Suit will be a hard nut to crack, Poet's Voice could be the one to be on. If there was any rain this would favour Poet's Voice over his optimum trip. After winning this corresponding race last year, Poet's Voice went on to beat Rip Van Winkle at Ascot in the QEII, and if he is back to that level of form after his lay off, he looks likely to go very well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 3rd September: 3:30 Haydock: Wizz Kid 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Victor Chandler & Deacon Blues 1pt win 4/1 Bet365 Deacon Blues looks a worthy favourite and looks very much a sprinter on the up. At the same time, Wizz Kid could spring something of a surprise. This French trained filly is lightly raced yet has already run some decent races. Last time out Wizz Kid was fifth in the Nunthorpe after not getting a clear passage and possibly racing on the wrong side, (opposite to the winner Margot Did). Prior to that Wizz Kid had beaten Prohibit at Chantilly. She maybe benefitted from a run up the rails that day, however that form was franked when Prohibit won the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot and Prohibit also ran well again at York. So far Wizz Kid's two best races have been over five furlongs, however she was staying on well in the Nunthorpe and has been tried over further, and on pedigree she should be as effective over six furlongs. Trainer Robert Collet has been doing well at Deauville with Immortal Verse and more recently Dream Peace picking up a Group 2. Deacon Blues has moved up through handicaps to win a Group 3 comfortably and a one point saver seems reasonable.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:15 Goodwood: Eternal Heart 1pt win 10/1 Ladbrokes Eternal Heart might take some catching here off a light weight. If Eternal Heart gets loose on the lead, like many Mark Johnston horses he could keep finding more and its often hard to pull a horse back on a yielding surface. Looking back through his form, Eternal Heart did not race as a two year old, however he quickly ran up a hat trick of wins, before putting up a decent performance at Royal Ascot behind Namibian. Since then he ran another fair race behind Tactician in a Listed handicap and then sufferred some interference when seventh on his last outing at Chester. Mark Johnston has a fine record with his three year olds here and William Buick rides the course well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 Newmarket: Son of the Cat 1pt win 9/1 & Cochabamba 1pt win 33/1 both Bet365 Son of the Cat is an inform sprinter who ran well to win the consolation race for the Stewards Cup at Goodwood. He may have had the benefit of the best ground however there appeared little fluke about the win. Son of the Cat is lightly raced on turf for a five year old sprinter and there could be more to come. Son of the Cat seems to handle all surfaces and Franny Norton keeps the ride. Cochabamba has been either running over further or on a better surface, or both as a three year old. It could be that she has not trained on. However, if it has been the going and the distance, then this good to soft going and six furlongs might just see her in a better light. She certainly ran as if a shorter trip would suit last week at Sandown where she led before fading. Speculative, however Cochabamba was a very useful two year old and ran well on the very similar Rowley mile course last season.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:25 The Curragh: Fire Lily 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 Maybe puts her unbeaten reputation on the line here, however, there is just a suspicion she has enjoyed the run of the race the last couple of times, and while this is all credit to Joseph O'Brien who is doing an excellent job, it may be worth siding with Fire Lily. Its interesting connections choose to run her here against Maybe. Fire Lily has bumped in to Best Terms twice and she is just about the best English trained two year old filly seen out this season. Fire Lily has put up creditable efforts each time and may represent some value against the favourite. Good reason to think that the extra furlong will suit Fire Lily.

[BillyHills]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Good luck Steve, still going well I see:clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Billy, thanks very much :ok Figures for the 1st January to 31st August 2011 Points: Staked 238 Returned 378.34 Profit 140.34 ROI 58.97% Bets: Struck 192 Profitable 34 Strike rate 17.71% Already have some catching up to do for September as Wizz Kid this Saturday and Fiorente next week in the St Leger are certain non runners and now Deacon Blues looks to be out too. 6pts down before I've started .... !!

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 3:45 Ascot: Seelo 1pt win 14/1 William Hill Having supported Seelo last time out, when he finished behind Parlour Games, it might be worth persevering and giving him one further chance. Seelo reopposes on nine pounds better terms and on the face of it, that does not look enough to allow him to turn the tables. However, with these competitive handicaps you need everything to fall right and Seelo did not get a clear passage last time. And Seelo's best run was probably when he was sent to the front at Pontefract in June, hopefully similar tactics will be employed by Nicky Mackay this time. John Gosden is in good form and is always a man to be feared in these valuable handicaps. Seelo may also prefer this slightly better ground.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Ascot: Gramercy 1pt win 8/1 William Hill On pedigree it looks as though Gramercy should be better over seven rather than six, although so far he has not shown that on the track. As a four year old he is lightly raced and there is plenty of scope to put the record straight. Gramercy's last run behind Deacon Blues, the ante post favourite for today's Group One before being ruled out, looks very respectable form. He has winning form at the track and the better going than the Royal meeting could well count in Gramercy's favour. Its debatable whether the lay off since mid summer is a positive or a negative with a sprinter, however he looks worth an interest against largerly exposed rivals.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Haydock: Zuider Zee 1pt win 8/1 William Hill The one mile six looks as though it will suit Zuider Zee well, as he has often been noted as staying on strongly in his races over shorter. Reading the comments from his former races he does seem to be a horse that encounters trouble in running, being hampered more than once. Given a clear run on a decent surface he should go well. All seemed to fall in to place at Doncaster in June last year when he beat Woodford Belle, that was a lower class race than today, however Zuider Zee showed he could produce the goods at this level with a fine third to Fox Hunt at Epsom at the Derby Meeting. That winner followed up at Royal Ascot beating Blissful Moment and the second at Epson Berling beat Tominator at Chester, so the form lines for Zuider Zee look encouraging. John Gosden is in good form and has won this race in the past.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Haydock: Master Rooney 1pt win 12/1 Coral Master Rooney could be more than a topical tip. He has been running pretty well of late winning at Beverley and a vey close third at Doncaster with a modest effort at Pontefract sandwiched in between. Although this is a better race and he is five pounds higher than at Beverley, Master Rooney is lightly raced for a five year old sprinter and there could be a little more to come. Royston French does pretty well for Bryan Smart when Tom Eaves is elsewhere, and Master Rooney looks a little overpriced in an open race.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:15 Kempton: Bronze Cannon 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 With winning form on the all weather thin on the ground it may be worth chancing Bronze Cannon. Only three starts ago he was winning a race at Meydan worth £42k and his trainer was even talking about a run on the Dubai World Cup undercard in an interview. He has left Herman Brown in the meantime and has joined Gary Moore and has been quickly dropped seven pounds by the handicapper to a rating of 105. Now it could be that the horse has gone, however when he was running at Maydan, Bronze Cannon was being ridden by Ryan Moore, he may just have said to his Dad that this horse is worth chancing (or it could be pure coincidence!). If Gary Moore, fifty nine winners at the track, has got Bronze Cannon back to somewhere near his January form, the 20/1 could look very big.