The FTTS E/W Lucky 15.

[Tedthewolf]

Fellow Punters- Fin, Ted, Tip and Spooner are going to combine their racing knowledge/brains and post a horse each to make an e/w lucky 15 every Saturdays & Sundays from now. When all four selections have been posted they will be put together and Paddy Power prices added as at present they guarantee them and pay sp if bigger. Example; Fin~Horse A 9/1 PP gar Ted~Horse B 10/1 PP Gar Tip~Horse C 11/1 PP Gar Spooner~Horse D 12/1 PP Gar 1pt e/w lucy 15 = 30pts Profit/loss Wish us luck...and watch this space :drums

[Spooner]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. I'll be brave and go first. Newbury 14:40 - Character Building First of all this could be argued as a 'weak renewal' of the Hennessy Gold Cup, I don't think we will be getting any Denamn's out of the race however Character Building finished 3rd in this race last year behind the mightly Denman. One run since that and that was three weeks ago at Towcester over hurdles where he made a winning return, The run would of made him very fresh for this race and if running to the ability he showed last year then he would have to go close. Here's what trainer said about him. John Quinn on Character Building: "He's fine. I was pleased with him at Towcester, the horse can do no more than win. He got injured in the spring so we had to leave him alone and we thought we'd get him ready for the Hennessy again. I haven't looked any further than the Hennessy, though he'll be in all the staying chases. He must have a chance. There's no Denman this time but it's still very competitive. He's certainly got a sporting chance." The yard haven't had many runners over the last week or so but when they have there horses seem to be good enough form, Dougie costello takes the ride. 15/2 on PP at the moment.

[fintron]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. 3.25 Kempton Tropical Strait won a very competitive Doncaster handicap when last seen and looks to have the stamina to see out this mile and a half trip. David Arbuthnot's gelding is proven on the polytrack and won a course and distance maiden last September before winning next time out at Wolverhampton too. However, he has progressed quite a bit since that Wolverhampton win, and won his last race off a mark of 95 so it was inevitable that connections would be stepping him up out of handicaps any time soon. He looks to be quite a decent horse, not only did he win at Doncaster but he's mixed it up over this sort of trip in a £63k Newbury handicap earlier this year when he was 2nd of 20 and he had previously won at Newbury in a lesser event, finishing comfortably clear of the field. It is true that he has not yet won at this level, but he is definately worth a try at it and if he is as good as connections believe - they are repotedly training him for a crack at the Ebor next year - then he should be in the frame tomorrow. RPF is 6/1, so hopefully we'll manage to get that.

[StuSimmy]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Should be interesting guys, good luck with this, I take it all 4 of you will be having a bet on the Lucky 15?

[BillyHills]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Good luck lads, will watch with interest!

[Tipster5000]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Towcester 1.25 Midnight Haze I have gone for this as i can see Great Endeavour getting turned over for a couple of reasons firstly the ground which he has never ridden on before which im hoping will stay soft, The weight he has gone up too considering he only just held off Bluegun by 1/2 Length when going up on his first victory by 6lbs and this rise again could find him out, Midnight Haze Who comes from the well respected Kim Bailey yard can improve on his Class 3 2nd at Ludlow where he managed to carry 11st to place now dropping down in Class & Weight by 2lbs and a plus should be Jason Maguire taking the mount where he has a 18% Strike Rate for his trainer. Selection Midnight Haze 10/1 Tissue Price.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. 3.45 NEWBURY ARCTIC WINGS Tough racing today and Newcastle inspecting so have gone for this one. Needed the run lto when fell when beaten. Won here in lower grade last year and looked an improver but will have to improve to figure here. Double the price of Maraafeq who he was a neck behind at a longer trip at Aintree in may on same terms. May just go well at a very big price. Currently 40/1 with PP.

[fintron]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Character Building withdrawn. Lame. Hopefully Spooner will be back on this morning or we'll have to make the bet a patent or fill in with another pick.

[Spooner]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Bugger, Thats a shame. really don't like nothing else to this evening. 19:20 Wolverhampton - Birkside I backed this one last time out at Wolverhampton and he was ridden all wrong uder Neil Callan, Change of jockey tonight and hopefully a change of tatics. Stepping up in trip to 14f tonight where he is a c&d here over that trip. I expect a bigger run from this horse tonight, Ignore last time out run as he can bounce back here. around 9/2

[Spooner]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Prices from Paddy Power Tow 1:25 - Midnight Haze @ 12/1 Kemp 3:25 - Tropical Strait @ 8/1 Newb 3:45 - Artic Wings @ 40/1 Wolv 18:20 - Birkside @ SP (9/2 with Bet365) :hope

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Sat 29th Nov Fin~3.20 KEMPTON TROPICAL STRAIT @ 7/1 Ted~3.45 NEWBURY ARCTIC WINGS @ 40/1 Tip~1.25 TOWCESTER MIDNIGHT HAZE @ 12/1 Spooner~8.20 WOLVES BIRKSIDE @ 4/1 These were the prices available at 10.10 with PP all Guaranteed :ok 1pt lucky e/w 15. 30pts Bet Profit/loss

[mileni4uk]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Interesting thread. I wish you good luck guys :hope On question, are you playing at Paddy Power because of the guaranteed price or becuse their bonueses for winners etc. in L15 are the best?

[fintron]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. StuSimmy asked above if we are all backing them. I am going to, but haven't decided on my staking plan just yet. The possible options for anybody else doing the bet could be... Lucky 15 - the bet Ted has suggested when starting this thread. Comprised of 4 x singles, 6 x doubles, 4 x trebles and 1 x fourfold accumulator. Costs 15 pts in total or 30 pts if you go each-way. Yankee - same as a Lucky 15 but without the singles bets. Costs 11 pts or 22 pts EW. 'Graduated' Lucky 15 - this is how I used to bet when I originally did Lucky 15's although I haven't really done them much lately. As its harder to win the fourfold and trebles I graduated my stakes to take this into account and used to do 4 x 1 pt singles, 6 x 0.5 pt doubles, 4 x 0.25 pt trebles and 1 x 0.1 pt fourfold accumulator. You get a lower payout if all selections come in but you are weighting the majority of the money on the bets with the greatest probability of winning. The total cost of such a bet is 8.1 pts (16.2 pts EW), so its pretty much half the cost of a usual Lucky 15. 80:20 bets - because we are betting through Paddypower, who are one of the few bookies to offer place only betting, it is possible to weight the majority of the stake in favour of the place component of the bet and place two seperate bets - one a 0.2 pt Lucky 15 for example, and the other a 0.8 pt lucky 15 taking all the place only odds on offer. Again, this is kind of an insurance bet and would probably pay out larger amounts in the short term, but if all four selections do come in, you wouldn't be capitalising fully on the big win. Although Paddypower offer the best odds guarantee on the win prices, if they place only price drifted I don't think you get the bigger SP, as far as I know. Reduction plans - not something I do but these are staking plans suggested by David Duncan in Winning Horse Racing Formulae. He says that because Lucky 15's and other multiple bets usually involve a lot of wasted stakes you can skip backing certain doubles and trebles to cut down on losing bets in th case of losers. There is the possibility though that you could pick two winners from the four horses, but still not have a winning bet if that was one of the doubles you didn't cover. Although this isn't ideal, if you cut out certain doubles in the first place, you would have staked less in the first place anyway so providing the winners weren't at massive odds, it may not matter so much. The example I have to hand is for five horses, A,B,C,D and E. His plan is to back.... 4 doubles: AD, AE, BC, DE 3 trebles: ABD, ABE, CDE 5 fourfolds: ABCD, ABCE, ABDE, ACDE, BCDE If you have three winners you are guaranteed at least one double, four winners guarantees at least two doubles, one treble and one fourfold. If you follow this plan you are placing 12 bets instead of 26 as you would with a 5 horse heinz. I know we have only picked four horses for the FTTS bet, but you get the idea. The hit and miss strategy - Something I've just thought up off the top of my head just now but it could be an idea to mix win only and place only bets in the same bet if followers are able to identify a banker selection and make that a win bet. For example, if they think horse A is the banker of the four horses then they could back horse A in doubles with horse B, C and D (all of which would be taken using place only odds). In this way you would be avoiding wasting 'win' stakes if your non-banker selections placed. If you were to do this with doubles and trebles the full list of bets would be 3 x doubles: A to win, B to place A to win, C to place A to win, D to place 3 x doubles: Horse A win/horse B place/horse C place Horse A win/horse C place/horse D place Horse A win/horse B place/horse D place Of course, this whole system falls down in your banker gets beaten so it is imperitive you have full confidence in it. however, if you go the above doubles, trebles and a win bet on A its only costing 7 points. .........Just looking at ways to maximise profitibility anyway

[fintron]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Sorry, I don't want to confuse anyone with my above post. Ted is working out profit and loss calculations for the thread with a standard each-way lucky 15 bets. I wasn't trying to complicate things, just describe the different staking options we have when putting money on them in reallife. If anyone wants the place only prices they are Midnight Haze 5/2 (3 places) Tropical Straight 3/2 (3 places) Birkside 5/6 (3 places). .....Arrrgh, Ted, yours is a NR now!!!

[Spooner]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. LOL - This is going well

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Yep i'm backing all our e/w lucky 15 to small stakes. PP was chosen because they guarantee the prices. I use them a fair bit now and i think there pretty good all round and it will be easy to work out profit/loss from any payouts i get!

[Spooner]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Ted yours is a N/R incase you didn't notice fintrons post. :unsure

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15.

Ted yours is a N/R incase you didn't notice fintrons post. :unsure

Ah ffs i have already put my bet on .....i need to think.

[bowles10]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15.

Ah ffs i have already put my bet on .....i need to think.

if you are already on, then thats the bet placed. All the others have to do is do a patent instead. :ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. What do you think F,T,S let the bet run or do you want me to pick another one? I reckon the bookies are paying the trainers to pull our selections out their running scared of us lads:lol

[Spooner]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Its upto you mate. :ok

[fintron]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15.

What do you think F,T,S let the bet run or do you want me to pick another one? I reckon the bookies are paying the trainers to pull our selections out their running scared of us lads:lol

If there is anything else you fancy you may as well add one in Ted, afterall, its all a bit of fun. If you're really struggling to find anything then we could just leave it at a patent.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15.

Sat 29th Nov Fin~3.20 KEMPTON TROPICAL STRAIT @ 7/1 3rd Ted~3.45 NEWBURY ARCTIC WINGS @ 40/1 NR Tip~1.25 TOWCESTER MIDNIGHT HAZE @ 12/1 UPL Spooner~8.20 WOLVES BIRKSIDE @ 4/1 UPL These were the prices available at 10.10 with PP all Guaranteed :ok 1pt lucky e/w 15. 30pts Bet 2pts returned for NR+4.8 For the place=6.8 Loss on bet 23.2 Not the best of luck for us both Spooner and myself had NR'S Spooner replaced his and just missed out for a place 5/1 4th at Wolves. Well done to Fin with a 7/1 3rd. Better Days ahead im sure. Back tomorrow for another go:ok

[fintron]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Aye, it wasn't fair to judge really after two first choice picks were NR's and subs had to be made. Mine for today comes from the last at Kempton 5.15 Kempton The Racing Post have napped Sendredi, the 2/1 favourite in this race, on the basis that he should get a good lead from his draw. I beg to differ. The presence of Dawson's Creek and Divertimenti, both drawn high too, means this race could be run at a furious speed, and I think it is an ideal opportunity for a hold up performer to pick their pockets late on. With Tobar Suil Lady withdrawn, an alternative pick at a juicy price could be Sofia's Star. S Dow's gelding was a recent winner at Windsor in this grade off a 7 lb lower mark, but didn't get the race run to suit last time out at the same track. The RP commented that he probably wanted a stronger pace, and as mentioned above, I think he will indeed get that today. 16's with Bet 365 no PP prices up just yet.

[Spooner]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Kempton 16:45 - Overstayed Been keeping a track on this horse since he moved stables, Has put in two decent runs at this rack, Two 4ths. Stepping down to 6f trip today which will suit, Ran a good second at Yarmouth in September over this distance. The one worry I would have for this horse that he has only 1 win in 33 runs but he getting closer with every run and could go in soon.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. 4.15 KEMPTON~DUKE OF MILLAN Quirky horse who is hard to catch right but has ability. Doesn't win as many races as he should. Ran well enough on return and if the horse settles has a good chance today. Price is a bit tight but will have to do! Currently 9/1 with Paddy

[Tipster5000]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Leicester 12.45 Helpston Can see this gelding making the frame, Only 2 1/2 Lengths behind Charity Lane on his Novice hurdle debut and could build upon that and go well again, Does have to cope with a slight rise in the weights and a Class rise which shouldnt trouble him that much in what could be a weak contest. Helpston 7/1 currently with paddy power.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Sunday 30th Nov Fin~5.15 KEMPTON SOFIA'S STAR 12/1 Ted~4.15 KEMPTON DUKE OF MILLAN 15/2 Tip~12.45 LEICESTER HELPSTON 7/1 Spooner~4.45 KEMPTON OVERSTAYED 7/1 1pt e/w lucky15:hope Prices Gar and where available at 11.15.

[crebely]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. nice start tipster sweet

[bowles10]

Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. yeah, nice start guys!