NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

full advised: Advised Prices 27/02/2009

Newbury:

15-15 Chase – Ordre De Bataille – 5/1 Bet665 & Paddy Power – (5pts EW: 3 places 1/5 odds)

4th @ 6/1 :(

15-15 Chase – Very Cool – 4/1 Bet365 – (10pts Win) 1st @ 11/4 :nana Doncaster: 16-10 Chase - Wot Way Chief - 10/30 Various - (10pts Win) 1st @ 9/2 :nana

Good day to end the month :clap

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 27^th February Overview

Race 1 – Newbury 15-15:

I had 2 selections in this contest and one of them was my BBotD. Very Cool was sent out as the front runner and he pretty much made all from start to finish though he looked as though he was struggling at points. In the end though he won quite well and seems as though he isn’t the easiest of rides. My BBotD ran very well indeed up until the run-in. With 2 to jump he looked to be going the best of the field and looked as though he was going to romp home but he tired very quickly and in the end finished 4^th missing out on the places.

1^st & 4^th

Race 2 – Doncaster 16-10:

Wot Way Chief wasn’t well backed in the market and he drifted to an SP of 9/2 but the market unrest was unjustified and he ran very well winning by a comfortable 1.5L. The return to good ground obviously suited him to a tee and he looks a good sort as long as he isn’t raised too much in the future.

1^st

A good day overall providing 63.33pts profit at advised and 62.5pts at SP. A good end to the month in what has been a good month after a slightly shaky start.

Total Bets: 126 Total Staked: 1246pts Total Returned @ Advised: 1479.42pts Strike Rate: 55/126 (43.65%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 (Currently on a run of 1)

Longest Losing Streak: 6

Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 (14/1 Adv. ‘The Ring’) & (Mitchel Henry) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 433.42pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +233.42pts Profit/Loss at SP: +155.06pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 18.73%

[NMc106]

[RussP]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Superb month mate, well done:clap Can't argue with a profit and yield like that. Good luck for March, plenty of Cheltenham bets coming up then?:ok

[fintron]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Aye, those are impressive figures NMc, good going :clap

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 2^nd March

Stratford– Left-Handed, Sharp, Flat Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P Nicholls (29%), P Bowen (21%) & Jonjo O’Neill (19%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Tony McCoy (22%), Richard Johnson (19%) & T J O’Brien (19%) Going: Good, Good to Soft in places

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (44%) & Chase (33%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (21%) & Chase (33%)

Selections Monday 2^nd March:

Stratford-On-Avon:

15-30 Chase:

Leading Contender will be the selection and hopefully he will come on for his 1^st run in over a year lto. He put in a good performance finishing only 3¼L behind stablemate Pancake at the start of last month at Kempton. He took his time to settle in that race and that was understandable due to his long layoff but once he got going he ran well. If he settles quicker today he could get his chase career of the ground with a win no doubt. A good hurdler rated 145, he signed-off over hurdles with an impressive win at Cheltenham in December 2007. Hobbs is in form right now and a really good chance for him to continue his form into the Festival with a winner here.

Selection Rating: ()

Selection Review:

15-30 – Leading Contender

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Cheers for the comments Russ & Fin ;) Im away tomorrow so there will be no advised prices and I will just take the SP. Theres only 1 race so Im not too worried! ADVISED = SP

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 2^nd March Overview

Race 1 – Stratford 15-30:

Leading Contender never ran up to the standard expected and after his mistake at the 3^rd it was looking bad. He made a blunder at the next as well and he was soon beaten and was eventually beaten a total of 20L by third favourite of the four OscarBay.

3^rd

A loss of 10pts at advised and at SP.

Total Bets: 127 Total Staked: 1256pts Total Returned @ Advised: 1479.42pts Strike Rate: 55/127 (43.31%) Longest Winning Streak: 4

Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 1)

Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 (14/1 Adv. ‘The Ring’) & (Mitchel Henry) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 423.42pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +223.42pts Profit/Loss at SP: +145.06pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 17.79%

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Tuesday 3^rd March

Exeter– Right-Handed, Very Undulating, Testing Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P Nicholls (30%), P Hobbs (21%) A King (18%)

Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Richard Johnson (24%), Robert Thornton (19%) & Tony McCoy (18%) Going: Good

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (50%) & Chase (54%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (34%) & Chase (22%)

Selections Tuesday 3^rd March:

Exeter:

15-30 Chase:

A very open race this and I will back 3, all EW.

Sandhursthas had just 2 runs this season and makes his handicap debut here off a potentially decent mark. Finished 2^nd on his seasonal opener and followed that up with a 3^rd last time out and I think that the good ground will get even better out of him as he didn’t seem to like the soft ground and was a pretty hard ride. Not Sam Thomas’s biggest fan but to be honest he’s a pretty good jockey and he should get a good ride out of this one so a good chance.

Samsbro ran lto for the 1^st time for new trainer Dartnall and it was his most encouraging performance for a long time so if he improves on that he could go very close here. He is weighted to turn around the form of Notabotheronme and if he takes to the good ground then he could well do that and go on to win. A decent chance here with the step up in distance also.

Wild Ground made her seasonal debut 26 days ago and really well finishing a good 2^nd behind Borero, and finds herself only 2lbs up for her display. The run came on heavy which isn’t her favourite and the change to good will see the best of her. Improvement should be due for her run lto and if she can last the distance then she is sure to be there or thereabouts as she is one of few who have solid form on faster ground.

Selection Rating (All selections): ()

Newcastle:

16-50 Chase:

De Boitron and Or De Grugy met last time out with De Boitron coming out on top that time by 6L. Or De Grugy is weighted to turn this around though and I feel that the better ground should also help Or De Grugy and may well hamper De Boitron.

Or De Grugy does prefer good ground and although it isn’t good here it is faster than lto. He was raised 4lbs for that 2^nd lto behind De Boitron which seems fair considering the winner was penalised 11lbs for just 6L more. Only slight problem is the jockey change for Bradburne to Aspell who I don’t know all that well, but I shall still back him and hope for the best.

Selection Rating: ()

Selection Review:

15-30 Exeter – Sandhurst

15-30 Exeter – Samsbro

15-30 Exeter – Wild Ground

16-50 Newcastle – Or De Grugy

Will post bets and advised prices in the morning.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 03/03/2009

Exeter:

15-30 Chase – Sandhurst – 8/1 SportingBet – (2.5pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds)

15-30 Chase – Samsbro – 8/1 BlueSq & 888Sport – (3pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds)

15-30 Chase – Wild Ground – 12/1 Various – (2.5pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds)

Newcastle:

16-50 Chase – Or De Grugy – 7/2 Various – (10pts Win)

[Spooner]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Good stats NMc :clap

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Advised Prices 03/03/2009

Exeter:

15-30 Chase – Sandhurst – 8/1 SportingBet – (2.5pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds)

PU @ 7/1 15-30 Chase – Samsbro – 8/1 BlueSq & 888Sport – (3pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds) PU @

8/1 15-30 Chase – Wild Ground – 12/1 Various – (2.5pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds)

4th @ 12/1 :(

Newcastle:

16-50 Chase – Or De Grugy – 7/2 Various – (10pts Win)

4th @ 3/1 :(

Not a good day, I am just happy that I reduced my stakes in the first race rather than go 5pts each way on all selections as per normal.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Tuesday 3^rd March Overview

Race 1 – Exeter 15-30:

I had 3 selections in this and not 1 managed to put in a performance good enough for a place. It turned out to be a real slog and tactics were absolutely crucial and was again Tony McCoy got them spot on with outsider Teeming Rain. The rain was battering down and only 5 finished. My best selection was Wild Ground who came home 4^th but was never really involved in the race. Samsbro was involved from the front but was beaten before 8 out and tired very quickly.

4^th, PU & PU.

Race 2 – Newcastle 16-50:

My selection in this was 2^nd favourite Or De Grugy and he never looked to be travelling perfectly. He was the co-leader at the start but even at only 6 jumped he had slipped through the field. He never really responded to pressure and was soon beaten. Flake looks a game horse who looked certain to get beat but fought on brilliantly after the last.

4^th

A loss of 26pts at advised and at SP.

Total Bets: 131 Total Staked: 1282pts Total Returned @ Advised: 1479.42pts Strike Rate: 55/131 (41.98%) Longest Winning Streak: 4

Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 5)

Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 (14/1 Adv. ‘The Ring’) & (Mitchel Henry) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 397.42pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +197.42pts Profit/Loss at SP: +119.06pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 15.40%

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 4^th March

Fontwell – Left-Handed, Fairly Sharp Hurdles Track; Figure 8, Undulating Chase Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P Nicholls (28%), D Pipe (23%) G Moore (21%)

Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Tony McCoy (26%), Sam Thomas (21%) & Jamie Moore (20%) Going: Good, Good to Firm in places

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (42%) & Chase (54%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (25%) & Chase (38%)

Selections Wednesday 4^th March:

Fontwell:

15-30 Hurdle:

Aqualung won lto Ludlow beating rival again here Tragic Realm by 16L, there is a weight shift of 14lbs though in favour of Tragic Realm today, so it really could be who comes on the most for that run. I would personally say Aqualung but I'm not over confident. Aqualung also has to prove on the ground whereas Tragic Realm has put in a 2^nd and a 3^rd on good ground in the past.

My selection though will be DunkellyCastle who was beaten 12L lto in 2^nd by Star Lord. This shorter distance will suit him as he has a decent amount of pace as shown then so a good chance at forecasted odds of 7/1. He beat Hello Moscow in that race lto who we all know has since gone on to win and was part of McCoys magical day in February. A good each-way bet to say the least with 3 places as most of this field are hopeless and would have to find unknown form to feature in this. The dangers for the top 3 for me are Aqualung, Tragic Realm, Fruity O’Rooney (if lto wasn’t a fluke) and of course my selection DunkellyCastle

Selection Rating: ()

16-00 Chase:

ValentiaIsland is turned out again here under a 7lbs penalty after winning lto at Plumpton. He looked as though he wanted a bit further as he still has some in hand but I don’t think he wanted quite this far so I will oppose him here today. Steps up 6 furlongs from last run and will really have to prove to me that he stays this far before I am interested.

Amoreigh is another who reappears quickly after a win lto. His win came lto at Plumpton also but was over the same distance so I prefer the veteran to ValentiaIsland based on that. Was in a similar formline last March where he won at the start of March then turned out quickly again under a penalty, finishing 2^nd, then turned out again quickly where he won. So if that is to go by he should go close again as he could be a confidence horse who can string up a few victories. Isn’t the most reliable of jumpers but certainly has lots of stamina though I'm not sure stamina will be the main decider here with the ground not being testing.

Prey Bird is a very lightly raced old sort who has obviously been a late bloomer. Only made hurdling debut in January at the age of 10, though he has had 2 runs in hunters chases winning the most recent of them in May of last year. Ran decently lto over hurdles but will enjoy today’s outing over fences much more and with a run under his belt he could go close and there could be a lot more in him. Sitting at 10/1 looks nice for a small each-way bet.

Selection Rating (Amoreigh): ()

Selection Rating (Prey Bird): ()

Selection Review:

15-30 – DunkellyCastle

16-00 – Amoreigh

16-00 – Prey Bird

Will post bets and advised prices in the morning.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Once again I am away tomorrow so will stick up the prices now and will have to take one of the runners at SP. Advised Prices 04/03/2009

Fontwell:

15-30 Hurdle – DunkellyCastle – SP – (5pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds)

16-00 Chase – Amoreigh – 9/2 Paddy Power – (10pts Win)

16-00 Chase – Prey Bird – 10/1 Bet365 – (2pts EW: 3 places, 1/5 odds)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Once again I am away tomorrow so will stick up the prices now and will have to take one of the runners at SP. Advised Prices 04/03/2009

Fontwell:

15-30 Hurdle – DunkellyCastle – SP – (5pts EW: 3 places ¼ odds)

NR

16-00 Chase – Amoreigh – 9/2 Paddy Power – (10pts Win)

NR 16-00 Chase – Prey Bird – 10/1 Bet365 – (2pts EW: 3 places, 1/5 odds)

4th @ 4/1.

Well a couple of non-runners and the bet I was least expectant of ran :( Gutted Dunkelly never ran as with Aqualung running awfully as did Tragic Realm he could easily have won that had he ran.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 4^th March Overview

Race 1 – Fontwell 16-00:

Prey Bird was very popular in the betting market as I had an early price of 10/1 and he eventually went off at 4/1. But the unexposed type didn’t really run particularly well though and only managed 4^th place in the end.

4^th

A loss of 4pts at advised and at SP.

Total Bets: 132 Total Staked: 1286pts Total Returned @ Advised: 1479.42pts Strike Rate: 55/132 (41.67%) Longest Winning Streak: 4

Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 6)

Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 (14/1 Adv. ‘The Ring’) & (Mitchel Henry) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 393.42pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +193.42pts Profit/Loss at SP: +115.06pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 15.04%

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Thursday 5^th March

Carlisle– Right-Handed, Galloping, Undulating and Testing Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – Howard Johnson (27%), Jonjo O’Neill (25%) &N Richards (24%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Denis O’Regan (35%), Tony McCoy (26%) Tony Dobbin (22%)

Going: Heavy

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (50%) & Chase (51%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (21%) & Chase (35%)

Wincanton – Right-Handed, Galloping Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P Nicholls (35%), Venetia Williams (17%) P J Hobbs (15%)

Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Ruby Walsh (37%), Tony McCoy (24%) Sam Thomas (19%) Going: Soft

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (48%) & Chase (58%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (21%) & Chase (34%)

Selections Thursday 5^th March:

Carlisle:

15-15 Chase:

Jaunty Flight is far superior than his rivals here over hurdles and his 2 runs over fences this season so far show that he is more than capable. He seems to go well on any type of ground with him putting in decent runs on good ground and putting in a decent 2^nd lto on heavy which we have here today. Has 2 runs over fences winning his debut then following that up with a 2^nd lto. Really hard to see him getting beaten here and a good chance to get back to winning ways.

Selection Rating: ()

15-45 Chase:

I selected Mitchell Henry lto when he won in a real slog at Carlise at 12/1. He returns to the track here today in very similar conditions and he has only been raised 5lbs for his win lto so he seems to be well treated. He is certainly on the way up with his performances improving every time so far this season and his weight increase should allow him to improve further. Now that he has a win under his belt his confidence should be high so a repeat performance is more than possible.

Selection Rating: ()

Wincanton:

15-35 Hurdle:

Abstract Art was quite a useful hurdler last season putting in some nice appearances over 2 miles. His 1^st outing this season was awfully bad, so bad that I would Discount it altogether. He was pulled up after being upped in distance so possibly couldn’t handle the extra few furlongs. If running to his standard of last year he should be involved here as he still remains on a decent mark.

Benetwood is going to be my selection here to take down Suntini. Has finished 5^th on his two outing so far this season but at those points trainer wasn’t doing so well but now the trainer is back in form and I expect a much improved performance. His last win came on soft ground so the conditions are certainly favourable and with Tony McCoy back on board a big run may be expected so he is bound to go close. A good each-way bet but he could certainly take this if he gets the running.

Suntini will go off as a short priced favourite and with more improvement potentially in him he deserves to. A win on his seasonal debut followed up by a decent 3^rd behind Silk Drum he certainly has ability and with only two runs this season he could well go on. He will probably win this but I don’t like the odds of Evs currently available so I will oppose him in the hope that he remains at the same ability level as he showed lto.

Selection Rating: ()

Selection Review:

15-15 Carlisle – Jaunty Flight

15-45 Carlisle – Mitchell Henry

15-35 Wincanton – Benetwood

Will post bets and advised prices in a mo.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 05/03/2009

Carlisle:

15-15 Chase – Jaunty Flight – 1/5! Various – (10pts Win)

15-45 Chase – Mitchell Henry – 7/2 Various – (10pts Win)

Wincanton:

15-35 Hurdle – Benetwood – 8/1 Skybet – (3pts E/W: 2 places, ¼ odds)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Advised Prices 05/03/2009

Carlisle:

15-15 Chase – Jaunty Flight – 1/5! Various – (10pts Win)

1st @ 1/5 :lol

15-45 Chase – Mitchell Henry – 7/2 Various – (10pts Win) PU @ 3/1 :(

Wincanton:

15-35 Hurdle – Benetwood – 8/1 Skybet – (3pts E/W: 2 places, ¼ odds)

2nd @ 10/1 :nana

A small loss overall.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Thursday 5^th March Overview

A loss of 5pts at advised and 3.5pts at SP.

Total Bets: 135 Total Staked: 1312pts Total Returned @ Advised: 1500.42pts Strike Rate: 57/135 (42.22%) Longest Winning Streak: 4

Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 (14/1 Adv. ‘The Ring’) & (Mitchel Henry) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 388.42pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +188.42pts Profit/Loss at SP: +111.56pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 14.36%

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Going to do a few Cheltenham write-ups and make my selections. I will take odds when applicable. If I don't advise prices I shall in the near future, but in most cases I shall take whats on offer when the write-up is written. These bets will be included in my thread totals of course. Lets start with: Cheltenham – Champion Hurdle:

This race has been all about Binocular for some time now and he should win it but I have a nagging doubt in my mind about the hill and whether he will be caught. He has looked very impressive in his two outings this season and he deservedly goes off favourite. He beat Celestial Halo, who is 2^nd in the market, very comfortably lto and looked to still have plenty of running in him; he went to around 6/4 after that performance. There is a slight drift on the go just now though and he is very close to going to 2/1 on Betfair and that worries me as people have obviously seen him out during one of Henderson’s galloping sessions. I do still fancy him to take the race though and if 2/1 becomes available I would lump on it as that really is a big price based on what he is capable of. He could well come on even further for his defeat of Celestial Halo as that was only his 2^nd outing this season, but I don’t think that will happen but he is certainly good enough to win it.

I don’t fancy Celestial Halo as I think he showed his peak form lto while beating Osana, who was making his first appearance of the season. Celestial Halo had already had a run under his belt and was receiving 4lbs from Osana so conditions were certainly in his favour and he only won by 3½L. He won the Triumph hurdle here last season but Franchoek has not turned out to be the horse most people expected him to be, so it is debatable as to what Celestial Halo actually beat that day.

Osana would be my choice of the ‘big 3’ although the fact he has only had the 1 run this season goes against him in the trends. I feel though that he will certainly reverse the form on Celestial Halo from the run lto and will push Binocular up the hill and challenge him all the way to the line. He finished 2^nd in last years, albeit weak, Champion Hurdle behind Katchit and showed that he is a game horse who can certainly get up the hill. Katchit has had a poor season and I would be surprised to see him come good in time. With news that the ground may be a bit softer than expected at Cheltenham Osana will fancy his chances and sits at a very nice 12/1 in the market with a couple of days to go.

Out with those three the two I fancy at bigger odds would be Muirhead who finished 12^th in last years Supreme Novices but has come on leaps and bounds this season and finished a good 2^nd behind Brave Inca lto in Ireland. More improvement would certainly be needed but if the ground gets really soft and the race is ran at a good pace he could certainly come into contention. The odds of 40/1 currently available seem too big but he would certainly need a bit of luck on his side.

The final horse I think may get involved is Whiteoak who receives a very nice 7lbs mares allowance and due to that could beat a fair few of these on her day. She is a course winner after winning the mares event last year beating Chomba Womba in the process. A bit of cut in the ground won’t cause any trouble and she has only had the one run this season in which her performance makes her interesting for this. She was beaten 1½L by Ashkazar and was only receiving 4lbs and beat Punjabi 10L, both of whom could go well in this. Improvement is not out of the question as she finished 2^nd on her opener last season and came on for the run following up with a win.

Will be a fascinating race and my selections at this point would be Binocular, Osana & Whiteoak. Selections for the Champion Hurdle:

Binocular – 10pts Win @ N/A {No odds yet, will wait to see what happens in the market}

Osana – 10pts EW @ 12/1 {Can’t see him not getting a place unless something goes wrong}

Whiteoak – 3pts EW @ 18/1 {Could go well and could possibly sneak into contention}

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Cheltenham – Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase:

A very open race this and I would rather oppose the two market leaders rather than back them.

Current market leader is Tatenen who has been in good form this season but didn’t look overly special lto when being beaten a short head by Follow The Plan even though he was receiving 11lbs. How Follow The Plan can be 16/1 when Tatenen is as low as 7/2 is beyond me. The speed of the lto obviously wasn’t to Tatenen’s liking but I would touch him at 7/2, there is just no way.

The other market leader is CalgaryBaywho currently sits around 5/1 and has only had the 1 win over fences and is another whose price is far too low to get involved in. The news that Cheltenham is probably going to be softer than good also doesn’t fair well for Calgary and he could well be drifter on the day and I am not interesting in getting involved.

Golden Silver may have a very big chance in this though the conditions are not likely to be as bad as he would like them. Has never ran in Britain before with all his runs coming over in France and more recently in Ireland. He does prefer a flat track and really atrocious conditions so probably not in his favour here but I fancy him to run a big race, a small each-way bet might be nice as he could certainly run into a place. He has already beaten Forpadydeplasterer & Follow The Plan this season albeit in much worse conditions than he is likely to face on the day.

I’msingingtheblues looks a really great bet in this and at odds of 9/1 he is massively overpriced. Has won his last two outings so is in fine form going into the race, in the first of those race he beat Calgary Bay a length while conceding 6lbs so how Calgary Bay is 5/1 is beyond me. He beat the very impressive Doctor David lto and jumped well in the main so his jumping is certainly not a problem to comprehend. The only problem could be the track at Cheltenham as he has only won once from 4 attempts here and as we know course form is essential for the festival. Based on bare form though he must go close and at 9/1 he really does seem the bet of the race for me, as if he performs on the track as he did when he won on it he could well take this in his stride.

Kalahari King has had a very good season with three wins and a second from his 4 starts so he must come into contention for this. I do feel though that this is a much highly quality race than what he has participated in before and he would have to come on a fair whack to really challenge. The formline through Doctor David leaves him needing to find over 15lbs on I’msingingtheblues so I won’t be backing him this year though he could well get into contention if he gets the run of the race, but there is more viable options available for the being.

My selections just now would be Golden Silver and I’msingingtheblues.

Selections for the Arkle Chase:

Golden Silver – 5.5pts EW @ 20/1 {Conditions wont be ideal but certainly a decent chance}

I’msingingtheblues – 10pts EW @ 9/1 {Has a great chance if he can cope with the track this year}

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Supreme Novices Hurdle:

My ante-post selection was Conflictofinterest but he has disappointingly been pulled out probably due to the feeling that the track would get the better of him and he will probably go to Aintree.

The race is quite open and with Cousin Vinny drifting it could be a very interesting opener to the festival. Cousin Vinny has been fancied quite a long time now even though he unseated his rider lto, although saying that he looked to have had the race wrapped up so confidence should still be high. There have been rumours of him travelling badly though and that he hasn’t eaten, how much you want to believe of that is entirely up to you but it has obviously effected the market with him now sitting at 3/1 when he was 9/4 this morning. If in fine fettle though he will go very close and has to be considered, 3/1 is big if he is fine.

Torphichen has won very comfortable in both of his starts over hurdles this season and looks very good. He will probably be more suited to the Triumph though it does look as though he will go for the Supreme Novices based on the odds available although it is far from clear cut. Currently 6/1 for the Supreme Novices he also sits at 10/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. He is the only 4 year old in the field and as a consequence he goes off bottom weight and is technically the best off based on official figures. He loves soft ground so the forecast of rain certainly helps his cause here and a good chance, still has to prove that he can handle a battle but is lightly race a should go well.

Red Moloney is a horse who I like very much even though he hasn’t really won a high class event and only has form at Musselburgh. To be honest though I don’t think he has shown enough for me to get involved in this and it is now looking as though conditions are going to turn for the worse which will all but end his chances. I would like him to run well but with him still to prove that he can run anywhere out with Musselburgh, I shall pass on him this year but is still a top notch horse.

Michael Flips will probably prefer faster ground than what could potentially be soft ground but there could still be improvement in him and could certainly get involved, as I say though ground may go against him.

Ainama I have to be beaten by Torphichen through the form of Trenchant and Copper Bleu doesn’t look consistent enough for me to back him, a potential good chaser next season though.

My selection would be Torphichen.

Selections for the Supreme Novices Hurdle:

Torphichen – 15pts Win @ 6/1 {Is well in on official figures and with the conditions of Cousin Vinny unclear, could have a great chance.}

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Overview of Cheltenham Tuesday bets.

Champion Hurdle:

Binocular – 10pts Win @ 15/8

Osana – 10pts EW @ 12/1

Whiteoak – 3pts EW @ 18/1

Arkle:

Golden Silver – 5.5pts EW @ 20/1

I’msingingtheblues – 10pts EW @ 9/1

Supreme Novices:

Torphichen – 15pts Win @ 6/1

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 A Very poor day all in :(. I will update totals and analysis after the festival as busy stuying in the next couple of days!

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Ballymore Novice’s Hurdle:

I have backed Diamond Harry ante-post at 4/1 and he remains at those odds now so really no advantage. He looked infinitely impressive on his first 3 starts this season winning with any amount in hand but his most recent run wasn’t as clear cut and he may have ran too many times this season, so I am not as confident about him now as I was when I backed him. Saying that though the ground was extremely testing that day and a return to better ground will more than likely see him better again. If he runs to the top of his ability he could be hard to beat but I won’t be increasing my stake on him.

Karabak looked very impressive lto and with this race due to be his 4^th of the season he could have a great chance. He was beaten by fellow competitor Mad Max on his season opener but he seems to have put that behind him and he has won both attempts since then. The 2 race he has won though, it is debatable what he beat as both have failed to gone since the races. He really did look impressive though and if he can improve further he must go close. He won at Cheltenham in December on very similar ground to what the race will be run on so he can certainly handle the track.

Mad Max is a colossal horse who has only had 2 outings this season and will make his 1^st run since a breathing operation. As mentioned he beat Karabak early in the season but with concerns about him dealing with the track and the fact that he makes his 1^st appearance since an operation I would be more willing to oppose him here as others appeal more.

Mikael D’Haguenet has won 4 out of 4 over in Ireland and has looked very impressive indeed. Rated 155 he is the top rated with Diamond Harry so he should go close though fears about the ground conditions are a worry. He has done all his running on no better than soft ground and he really does look as though he loves really soft due to his running style. Unlikely to get soft ground on the day and that could be crucial, if there is heavy overnight ran he could well be one to be on.

Ballymore Novice’s Selection:

Mikael D’Haguenet – 10pts Win @ 4/1 {Will go OK on good to soft hopefully, but overnight rain would be ideal}.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase

My ante-post selection was

Lodge Lane

and I am quite surprised I am even going to get a run for my money. He was woeful lto and based on that he has no chance, before the race he was unbeaten in all races apart from at Cheltenham so once again based on that he has a lot to find. As I say though pleasantly surprised to even see him appear.

The five I think who could come into contention are, starting with the least likeliest, Carruthers, won couldn’t have won any easier lto but probably never achieved anything in doing so. Has had a good season with two wins a 2^nd and he seems to go on any ground so no worries there. He does have to reverse form on What A Friend who I rate highly for this.

The Market Man has only had 2 runs this season with his most recent run being pretty poor finishing 4^th at Kempton over 3 miles. Excuses have of course been made for that run and to be fair he was yet to be asked the question when he made a bad mistake (sun in eyes excuse). Does have a good record at Cheltenham though with form of 12P, the win coming in 2005. Based on his run lto he will find this tricky but he is surely better than that and could get involved if he jumps soundly.

Gone To Lunch has had a comparatively long season with 5 runs and with him coming into this with 3 wins on the bounce his confidence must be high. Has been ran a lot in his career so far with 15 runs in 2 years and the last time he was on a winning streak he went to Cheltenham and then Aintree and hosed up both times so if he is a confidence horse he has a great chance. His best run so for was at Newbury where he beat Tartak who finished 5^th in the Arkle on Tuesday. A good stayer who really will stay all day but whether he has the pace for RSA is a different matter.

Cooldine is currently the favourite for this at around 4/1 and his chances were increased significantly when Forpadydeplasterer won the Arkle on day 1. Is stepped up in trip here and he has only raced once at this distance but it will probably suit and if he stays then he is bound to be there come the line. I wouldn’t have taken him into as much consideration if ‘Pady’ hadn’t come up with the goods on Tuesday though. Ruby preference over What A Friend.

What A Friend has had 2 runs over fences and he has won them both. He has form on Carruthers who could be well fancied in this and with his jumping likely to improve he could be a major star. Comes into this after an 89 day break so he should be raring to go and have a crack at 2 wins in a row at Cheltenham, he won here lto jumping well throughout apart from 1 mistake but recovered well and went on to score by 7L to Ballyfitz. He does run with a strange head carriage which doesn’t do him any favours but then again it hasn’t cost him as yet. If they were to get that sorted he could possibly come on by a fair bit and take this. Ruby has elected for Cooldine above him though which doesn’t breed confidence.

My selections would be What A Friend and a small EW bet on The Market Man.

RSA Selections:

What A Friend – 10pts EW @ 13/2 {Looked to have a lot in hand at Uttoxeter and could still have improvement in him}

The Market Man – 3pts EW @ 16/1 {Potentially a place in him, but has to improve, seems slightly overpriced}

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 JCB Triumph Hurdle

Ebidayan and Jumbo Rio met lto with Jumbo Rio coming out on top by just ¾L. Ebidayan could well reverse the form though as he will probably be more suited to the track and will more than likely get up the hill. I would still rather back Jumbo Rio though at 14/1 over Ebidayan at 8/1 as in the race Ebidayan was struggling from a long way out but kept on fighting, if he repeats that again he will find it extremely difficult to stay on as the finish to Cheltenham is gruelling.

Master of Arts was a very handy flat performer remaining unbeaten in 2008 in 6 races. He was bought for a large sum of money and duly won on his hurdling debut at Doncaster beating Copper Bleu 3¾L, Copper Bleu has since gone on and finished 4^th in the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle this week so based on that he could be very good. Has only had the one run so improvement could still be in him and I think he could go very close indeed. The main problem though is that because he has done all his running on flat tracks we have no way of knowing whether he will cope with the undulating track at Cheltenham. If he deals with it well he could certainly get involved at the business end.

Another flat recruit Starluck has had three hurdling outings and apart from his debut has absolutely hosed up in style. Last run came at Kempton in December and he ran faultless winning by 11L but could have won by anything he wanted. Another who could go very well here but once again concerns about the track so has something to prove. He was pulled out of a race at Cheltenham in November when the going was good to soft so that certainly doesn’t breed confidence. I shall pass for the time being.

On to the big two, Walkon was a good flat performer in France but has really shone in the hurdling game since converting. Has won 3 of his 4 starts over sticks with his only defeat coming at the hands of rival again Zaynar, though he was conceding 7lbs that day and the ground was probably a touch too soft for him that day. His 2 runs since then has came on soft/heavy ground also but he wasn’t up against a horse in the same calibre as Zaynar so the return to better ground will definitely see him in a better light. Won at Cheltenham lto so has course form and I fancy him to reverse the form on Zaynar.

Zaynar, as already mentioned, has beaten Walkon in the past but they meet again here in much worse terms in the eyes of Zaynar. He has only had the 2 outings over hurdles so far in his career and he looked very novicey when winning lto, so there should definitely still be improvement in him. He still won lto by 8L in the end but he was 1/5f and his jumping left something to be desired at points. Is rated 2lbs lower than Walkon and I think he certainly has to improve based on his run lto.

Triumph Hurdle Selections:

Walkon – 15pts Win @ 9/2 {Meets Zaynar on much better terms and seems to have progressed more than his rival since last meeting}

Master of Arts – 5pts EW @ 6/1 {He will be a big player if he deals with the undulations}

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Iv had a few days off but plan to get back into selecting again tonight.

Cheltenham was very poor for the thread total and I only managed to find one winner all meeting!

So:

Day 1 produced a loss of 82pts.

Day 2 produced a profit of 14pts (thank you Mikael D’Haguenet!)

No bets on Day 3.

Day 4 produced a loss of 25pts with Walkon being just beaten.

So overall a loss of 93pts, which I suppose isn’t disastrous although it has wiped out quite a large portion of my profit!.

So the thread totals now look like this.

Total Bets: 146 Total Staked: 1455pts Total Returned @ Advised: 1550.42pts Strike Rate: 57/135 (42.22%) Longest Winning Streak: 4

Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 (14/1 Adv. ‘The Ring’) & (Mitchel Henry) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 388.42pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +95.42pts Profit/Loss at SP: +13.56pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 6.56%