NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 31^st December – Uttoxeter & Warwick

There is two meetings today, Hogmanay, with some decent racing coming from Warwick & Uttoxetter.

Warwick – Left-Handed, Sharp Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) –P F Nicholls (27%), A King (24%) & N Twiston-Davis (24%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Ruby Walsh (44%), Mick Fitzgerald (25%) & Robert Thornton (22%) Going: Good to Soft, Soft in Places

Uttoxeter – Left-Handed, Fairly Galloping Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) –P J Hobbs (21%), N Twiston-Davis (19%) & Venetia Williams (17%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Noel Fehily (20%), A P McCoy (18%) & Richard Johnson (16%) Going: Good to Soft

Selections Wednesday 31^st December

Warwick:

13-20 Chase – Decent race this with the two market leaders likely to be close in the betting. Wichita Lineman & West End Rocker have met this season already, with Wichita coming out on top by a neck in a cracking race at Chepstow in October. Ground is softer here today and they race over 2 furlongs further which should suit Wichita more as he certainly travelled the better to the line in that race. Also in Wichita’s favour is the fact that he seems to have improved in his 2 runs since the Chepstow race, whereas West End Rocker jumped pretty poorly in his only race at Cheltenham. The other side of the argument though is that West End Rocker has 10lbs in hand today compared with the last meeting which, on paper, should see him comfortably win the rematch. Out-with those two Le Beau Bai seems the most likely to cause an upset but he really will have to find an awful lot to match the front two. It’s hard to decide between the two of them though and I shall weight until the morning to see the early prices and I will decide then who to plump for.

Selection Rating (Either Way: Wichita Lineman or West End Rocker): ()

13-50 Chase – A race full of runners who are hard to place with a few coming back from lengthy absences and some who are just so inconsistent it’s unreal. Looking at the form I was expecting Mage D’Estruval to be forecasted up at pretty poor odds as he certainly looks the one to beat with the recent form and handicap mark, be he is forecasted up at 11/2 and to me that seems massive, a definite bet in my eyes. The other contenders consist of Jolejoker who improved a fair bit lto and should be in the mix again here if he makes any sort of improvement, the soft ground and the remaining at 3 miles will do him wonders so a certain E/W chance at least. My noted horse Alfadora goes here but he is far too inconsistent this season to get involved with and I gave him 1 last chance lto so he will be overlooked simply based on consistency.

The bet for me though is definitely Mage D’Estruval who looks to be very well handicapped and should definitely get a place at least if he runs to his usual standard. He only has the 1 run under his belt this season so he is entitled to come on for that and if he does I really can’t see him getting beaten here. Possibly a saver bet on Jolejoker won’t go amiss, though I am confident enough with Mage D’Estruval.

Selection Rating: ()

Uttoxeter:

15-10 Chase – Tight race this with me managing to narrow the field to down to 4, with difficulty mind you! Saunders road has ran pretty well in all 4 of his runs this term finishing 1431 but today’s race is about his maximum distance and with him being bumped up another 8lbs for his win lto I feel that he is well a truly caught by the handicapper for the time being, will be interesting to see how he runs though as to be running at 18lbs higher than your 1^st outing is no easy task. Ambrosinni should really have no chance on paper against Our Jasper as he was beaten by the said horse by 16L on his last outing and he only comes into this 2lbs better off than then. Saying that though the step in distance will certainly improve him as he was running on well at the end and the fact he actually comes into this with a run should make a big difference, a decent E/W chance at big odds. Caipiroska is certainly the horse with the best past, stringing up lots of wins and places last year over hurdles. Hasn’t ran for the best part of a year though coming into this but it may still well be worth a gamble on his fitness as he remains well handicapped and with trainer clearly in form he could come back with a bang a really have a good season over fences. Final option is Pacco who already has 3 decent runs under his belt this season including a good win a Chepstow in November. In his last lto he looked as though he wanted further as he was plugging away into a clear 3^rd. He is up 6lbs up from that run though and although he could turn into a decent stayer the conditions don’t look entirely ideal for him here today with a few who will probably be just too good for him.

Selection Rating: ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in the morning!

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Well everything is cancelled :cry:cry Why can't Christmas get cancelled for bad weather? ;) Have a good day everyone!

[NMc106]

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 2^nd January 2009 – Folkestone

Well back to the grind here with just the one meeting, racing comes from Folkestone.

Folkestone – Right-Handed, Undulating Track with easy fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N J Henderson (50%), O Sherwood (26%) & A King (21%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – A P McCoy (32%), Mick Fitzgerald (26%) & Robert Thornton (23%) Going: Good to Soft. -- Chase Course - Good

Selections Friday 2^nd January

Folkestone:

13-35 Chase – Quartano makes his season and chase debut here and really should win this with ease. He is far superior to all his rivals in this over hurdles and he certainly looks as though he could go as good over fences. Forecasted up at 4/7 which seems decent to me and he is currently 13/18 on Betfair which seems very generous. Everything is in his favour here with trainer in great form, distance about right and the going should pose no problem for him so I expect him to win by a fair margin here.

Selection Rating: ()

14-05 Hurdle – Another race here with not many horses with form. I have narrowed this field down to 2 with the obvious Aux Le Bahnn being preferred as he is certainly the form horse. I actually backed Aux Le Bahnn in this thread on his last run and he dully delivered and hopefully he will do so again. He may need a little more cut in the ground as the softer the better for him but with his quality he should still win this even though the going is only good to soft and not his preferred soft. He steps up in distance slightly for this but he has proven himself in the past over 25 furlongs so the distance shouldn't cause any problems today.

The other I fancy is Perkin Warbeck who is yet to win from his 4 races (2234) but he is entitled to come on for his last run and with the ground being a bit softer that should suit him to a tee. He also steps up to 2 miles 6 furlongs which also might improve his chance here, although I really cannot see him challenging Aux Le Bahnn and he really would have to come on a fair amount to challenge the Noel Chance runner.

Aux Le Bahnn is currently sitting at 4/5 on Betfair which seems a very nice price for a horse who could win this very comfortably indeed if he is in the right frame of mind

Selection Rating: ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in the morning!

[bowles10]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 doing well there with the profit, keep it up & i note you only back normally up to about 10/1 apart from the 14/1 shot you had which won! Will keep checking into this thread.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 02/01/2009

Folkestone:

13-35 Chase – Quartano – 4/7 Various (WIN)

14-05 Hurdle – Aux Le Bahnn – 8/11 Various (WIN)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 2^nd January Overview

2 Runners here from Folkestone.

Race 1 – Folkestone 13-35:

Quartano wasn’t backed going into this and he went to odds as high as 4/5 and the punters obviously knew something as he didn’t run at all well and was disappointing into 2^nd. He was struggling some way out while sitting in 3^rd and although that pack was clear of the field he always looked 3^rd best. He did manage to sneak 2^nd by a head but they were both beaten very comfortably by Fix The Rib who was making his chase debut and looked quite impressive, one to keep and eye on for the next time.

2^nd

Race 2 – Folkestone 14-05:

I had Aux Le Bahnn in this and I can’t believe that he went off a Evens. I had him as an advised of 8/11 and that seemed decent value to me, so a real bonus for the SP figure to get evens. He ran very well and looked comfortable throughout in midfield, before making headway and going to the front 2 out. He looked tired jumping the last but he found more on the run in and won comfortably by 2¾L.

1^st

A poor run in the 1^st by Quartano wasn’t the best start but a good run by Aux Le Bahnn sees him win in this thread again and therefore we break even at SP and make a £2.73 loss at Advised.

Total Bets: 56 Total Staked: 560pts Total Returned @ Advised: 676.95pts Strike Rate: 24/56 (42.85%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 (Currently on a run of 1) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 316.95pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +116.95pts Profit/Loss at SP: +91.62pts

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Saturday 3rd January – Sandown

Well don't usually manage to get a bet on on Saturday as I'm in my bet til god knows when, but I'll stick my picks down now and my early prices in a mo.

Sandown – Right-Handed, Galloping, Testing Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P F Nicholls (27%), N J Henderson (19%) & P J Hobbs (17%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Mr J Snowden (52%), A P McCoy (27%) & R Walsh (26%) Going: Good, Good to Soft in Places -- Chase Course – Good to Firm in Places on back straight.

Selections Saturday 3^rd January

Sandown:

14-10 Chase – Tight race this with the field forecasted up between 7/2 and 14/1 by the Sporting Life. The 4 I feel will have the best chance are:

Out Of The Black is dropped 1lb after a pretty good run in a Listed event at Ascot some 14 days ago. If he runs up to that standard today he will certainly be there or thereabouts. The good ground will suit here and he looks pretty well handicapped at 131 considering he won a decent class 2 at Ascot off of 127 earlier in 2008. He beat Briery Fox by ¾L in that race, though Briery Fox has a 7lbs pull in his favour for this and has been running decently of late. Briary Fox as I say is in on the weights in comparison to Out Of The Black and has been running well of late; placing 4 times in his last 6 races. The going should suit as he has a career record of 11102B253 on good ground so a decent run by him should see him getting into the places here again today.

The other two I fancy are King Barry and Cresswell Willow who both look for Hat-Tricks from todays race. King Barry has been raised 7lbs for his winning outing last time and considering he only by 1lb I find this a tad harsh. He was running off of 16lbs less just two races ago and I feel that the weights today will be just too much for him to overcome, though I did say that last time aswell!

Cresswell Willow is raised 9lbs for his win lto and also goes off 16lbs higher than what he was running at just 2 runs ago. He has won convincing though than King Barry and I would be more tempted to back him for this reason. His jumping still worries me a little as before winning his two runs ago he had fallen in 3 on the trot, so although it looks as though they have him sorted I wouldn’t be 100% confident just yet.

Good race but I will go with Briery Fox to get his 1^st win for 2 years in this one.

Selection Rating: ()

14-40 Hurdle – A decent race this with my Supreme Novices bet Dee Ee Williams participating. Looking at the bare form and Mahonia really should win this as he beat Medermit by a comfortable 9L and Dee Ee Williams was knocked off by him by a short head lto. But I feel that Dee Ee Williams didn’t run as well as he could of in that race and looked a bit agitated.

Somersby also looks a nice type but I feel that he won’t quite have enough for this event and I will nominate Dee Ee Williams to take it up.

Selection Rating: ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo!

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 03/01/2009

Sandown:

14-10 Chase – Briary Fox – 9/1 Bet 365 (E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds)

14-40 Hurdle – Dee Ee Williams – 2/1 Various (WIN)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Advised Prices 03/01/2009

Sandown:

14-10 Chase – Briary Fox – 9/1 Bet 365 (E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds)

14-40 Hurdle – Dee Ee Williams – 2/1 Various (WIN)

The 14-10 now goes without King Barry it seems but Bet365 has priced it up the same so the 9/1 remains as it is with no deductions.

[fintron]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 its going well NMc106 with a nice profit, fingers crossed for tomorrow.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

its going well NMc106 with a nice profit' date=' fingers crossed for tomorrow.[/quote'] Cheers Wayne :) Just hope that everything goes ahead :ok Looks promising for Sandown by the sounds of the reports :D

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Cheers Wayne :) Just hope that everything goes ahead :ok Looks promising for Sandown by the sounds of the reports :D

So much for promising reports! What a load of crap like! Ah well another day of racing cancelled! Why o why is the jumps in the winter :sad

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 And so this joyous weather goes on! Even the 'All Weather' is not having it all its own way! They are confident that Kelso's Friday meeting will go ahead if the weather turns out to be what is forecasted, but I'm not sure! No jump racing since the 2nd and they are saying that the best chance isn't until the 9th and that's only if the weather behaves! This really is a joke but at the end of the day it really isn't anyones fault! I think I will post up a few selections for the Kelso meeting later, just to get me back in the groove ;) You're as cold as ice, Your willing to sacrifice our love!

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 9^th January Overview

Well we may get to see some horses jumping today which would be fun! Really hope this goes ahead, but it will be very testing ground to say the least. I am also going to change my betting tactics a bit by betting 10pts per race instead of 10pts per horse. Although my first bet is only going to be 5pts, but that should be rare!

Kelso – Left-Handed, Sharp Track (Very sharp Hurdles) Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N G Richards (21%), Ferdy Murphy (20%) & K G Reveley (18%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – N G Richards (21%), Tony Dobbin (18%) & Kenny Johnson (11%) Going: Soft, Good to Soft on straight

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (53%) & Chase (57%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (23%) & Chase (27%)

Selections Friday 9^th January

Kelso:

13-10 Chase – This mares chase doesn’t look like its going to take a lot of winning and a good performance by any horse could see her winning.

Annie’s Answer clearly looks the best horse here based on form as she is highest rated over hurdles by quite a distance and she has won a listed race in the past. Its her season debut but she seems to go well fresh and if she does so again here she could get her chasing career off to a flyer. The one problem, and it is a big one, is the ground; with her not running on anything softer than soft before she will really have to prove that she can handle it, but with 2 decent runs on soft (1^st and 4^th) she certainly shows she might be able.

The other 2 I fancy are Reel Charmer and Cornerback, but they are also in the same boat ground wise and on paper aren’t as good as Annie’s Answer.

On good ground I would expect Annie’s Answer to wipe the floor with her opponents here but with the testing ground I am no longer 100% confident. I will back her but only at 5pts win rather than the usual 10pts.

Selection Rating: ()

13-40 Hurdle – Quite a competitive race this with a few chasers dropping back to hurdles for some confidence one thinks.

Issaquah has won extremely easily on her previous 2 outings though she is fair getting whacked up the handicap and probably rightly so. 2 runs ago she won very easily on the bridle by 7L to Tartan Snow (Also runs here) and was put up 15lbs for her next outing where once again remaining on the bridle won very comfortably by 4L. She has since been put up another 13lbs and her jockey has lost 3lbs of his claim so is basically 16lbs worse off here. If she runs as well here again though she will certainly have a chance as she does look a very classy mare. She also likes soft ground and although she has not ran on as soft as this she looks as though she should be able to cope with it. As I was saying jockey gets along brilliantly with her and she has a good chance for her season hat-trick here. 7pts win.

The other I fancy is Pagan Starprincess who last ran 20 days ago; winning at Newcastle by 1¼L. She has been risen 7lbs for that win. That run came on soft ground which is good as its going to be mightily soft here, she also runs at her preferred 2 mile distance again here as she has been tried up to distance as high 3 miles this season, but she does seem to prefer the 2 mile mark for the time being. Is currently 12’s with Bet365 and certainly has place claims here. Is worth a crack here with 1.5pts E/W the stake.

Selection Rating (Issaquah): ()

Selection Rating (Pagan Starprincess): ()

14-10 Chase – Most in this field have no form on heavy ground so that factor could be a massive one here for the runners.

Honours Dream has only the 2 runs over fences and he is yet to get fully to grips with them. He may be more useful here though after a couple of runs. He loves heavy ground which will be a big factor in this and he certainly has places claims if his jumping improves on his previous 2 outings. He is 4lbs lower than his previous chase races and I fancy a good run from him here and I am willing to put 3pts E/W on him.

Super Baby seems to be quite a reliable horse with him always being in the first few positions. He remains off a good mark here today but he is yet to show that he can win again after his win 2 years ago. Seems to like most goings but I’m not sure if the extremely testing conditions here today will be entirely to his liking.

Final horse I fancy is Norminster who has taken his time to get a win under his belt, but he now has 2 wins in the last three and he seems to be getting to grips with the fences. He is has been put up 7lbs for his win lto which isn’t ideal and may just be a tad too high for him, but he loves heavy ground so should be in with a great shout here. According to connections he runs well after a short break which he hasn’t really had here with only 19 days since his last run. He can’t be overlooked though and a small 4pt win will suffice.

Selection Rating (Honours Dream): ()

Selection Rating (Norminster): ()

14-40 Hurdle – Decent race this with 2 good sorts.

Knockara Beau showed extremely impressive form in his 3 bumpers and looked a real good prospect. Unfortunately he hasn’t managed to pull that form over into the hurdling sphere as of yet. Finished 3^rd last time out, here at Kelso, and I fancy him to put a big run in here and take down Moscow Catch. They are probably similar in ability with Knockara Beau showing more promise in bumpers but Moscow Catch showing the better form over hurdles, but with Knockara Beau receiving 7lbs from his main rival he really should take this and get his hurdling career going. He also pairs up again with jockey Faltejsek who has a great run on him in a bumper so that could also add to the improvement. A definite 10pts win here.

Selection Rating: ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in the morning.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 09/01/2009

Kelso:

13-10 Chase – Annie’s Answer – 15/8 Blue Sq & Stan James (5pts WIN)

13-40 Hurdle – Issaquah – 33/20 Sportingbet (7pts WIN)

13-30 Hurdle – Pagan Starprincess – 16/1 Blue Sq & 888 (1.5pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ odds)

14-10 Chase – Honours Dream – 13/2 Various (3pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds)

14-10 Chase – Norminster – 5/1 Various (4pts WIN)

14-40 Hurdle – Knockara Beau – 21/10 Sportingbet (10pts WIN)

Well the racing is going ahead so far but there is still another inspection at 10.30am.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Abandoned! This is getting absolutely ridic now. 95% of the track was fine so hopefully there will be other courses in the same boat that are fully ready for Saturday.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Saturday 10^th January Overview

Well Kelso was abandoned, but Ayr will go ahead today. Wetherby is apparently 50-50 so I will focus more on Ayr but may stick up a bet from Wetherby if anything stands out.

Ayr – Left-Handed, Fairly Galloping Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – L Lungo (20%), Ferdy Murphy (19%) & N G Richards (18%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Tony Dobbin (25%) & Timmy Murphy (22%) & Richard McGrath (18%) Going: Soft, Heavy in places.

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (54%) & Chase (66%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (30%) & Chase (33%)

Selections Saturday 10^th January

Ayr:

14-00 Chase – Its hard to go against the likely odds on favourite in this and so I won’t.

Companero has won his last 4 outings, one of which was his chase debut. He didn’t jump impeccably so was subsequently put back over hurdles for a run. He impressed there and they are obviously happier with his jumping and willing to let him get another run over fences. If he sorts his jumping out it will be hard for anyone to get a look in here as he is certainly a really good novice, with potential to go pretty far. He will love the softer ground here and even if it does go to heavy there will be no problem. As I say a clear round from him and the other runners will have to improve significantly to get close to him. He has 7 wins from his 8 career runs so he certainly knows what it take to win. Not the most appealing of odds but still looks decent value based on what he could achieve. A 10pts win bet will be on his back.

Selection Rating: ()

14-30 Hurdle – Decent field here for this class 2 handicap hurdle.

Endless Power is a big front runner and with him returning to his favoured Ayr track he could take some catching. Ran a good race lto at Aintree in the Grand Sefton, he was miles in front before jumping the last and tiring dramatically on the run in before winning by just 2½L. He does like the course here as I say and back over hurdles will be interesting. Remains off a good mark and my heart could be beating again come the line if he puts in a similar performance as he did last time. The ground will suit and 2pts E/W at potentially good odds will be the bet.

Diamond Frontier is certainly a reliable horse and always seems to be there-or-therabouts come the finish, finishing in the top 3 in his last 6 outings. He steps up in class here and although he is a good horse he has gone up the handicap a fair bit recently and his jumping was a tad shaky to say the least lto. He should lap up the ground saying that though but I will oppose him here today.

Money Order looks an interesting prospect here. He hasn’t ran for a massive 423 days but the booking of Tony McCoy suggests that he is ready for his comeback and with him sitting at a very nice mark of 125 he could put up a great race here. He only has 5 career starts under his belt but he has won four of them with the other being a 3^rd on his hurdling debut. He won off of this mark in his only handicap hurdle back in March 2007 and if he is ready he could easily win again. The going will pose no problem as he has won on soft ground 3 of the 4 times he has ran on it. Trip will also pose no problem with wins coming over distance such as 2 miles 1 furlong. The booking of McCoy though is the factor that I am confident, as that shows confidence from connections so a 6pts win is the bet.

Selection Rating (Endless Power): ()

Selection Rating (Money Order): ()

15-00 Chase – Gypsy George was disappointing lto at the Welsh National, but the distance was possibly just too much for him or he just didn’t click. He had won on his 3 previous outings to that. Drops back to a more suitable distance and he loves soft ground so conditions are ideal for him. He is dropped 4lbs for that run in the Welsh National so he looks to be at a nice weight and there should still be some improvement to come so he certainly has a good chance to get involved at least. Is currently 5/1 with Paddy Power and Bet365 which seems decent to me, a safe E/W bet at the least. 5pts Win, or possibly 2.5pts E/W, will decide in the morning.

See You There is another who ran very poorly in their last outing. Also pulled up lto, I can’t put my finger on why he didn’t run up to standard. So due to that run his price for today’s race is probably inflated and the 10/1 currently available seems very nice to me. Drops back in trip again here and the testing ground will be perfect so should be back to his best as the conditions are all his favour. Will certainly last the distance as he has won over this distance twice already this season. Is dropped 2lbs for the at Sandown lto so goes off just 4lbs higher than his last win which was the 2^nd November. The bet will be 2.5pts E/W.

Malko De Beaumont will probably go off as a strong favourite but the current 5/2 and 11/4 available, offers no real value to me considering that he is running off 9lbs higher than his last outing where he only won 2L. Apart from that though conditions look in good nick for him as he loves the testing ground with his last 4 runs coming on soft or heavy ground, where his form is 2131.

Selection Rating (Gypsy George): ()

Selection Rating (See You There): ()

Wetherby:

13-35 Hurdle – I won’t bother putting up the course stats as I’ll only be covering the one race.

A good race this which I reckon will be fiercely contested by 2 hot prospects in Door Boy and The Old Pretender. The latter being the selection as he is the least exposed and is entitle to come on for his only run this season where he ran respectably. He showed great promise in his 2 bumpers and could really get his hurdling career firing here. Geraghty on board will also be a boost to his excellent chance also, he loves softer ground and although this is probably his minimum trip I fancy him here.

Door Boy will go off as a strong favourite here and deservedly so as he has shown himself over hurdles already this season and will not be easy to beat. He seems to take to all surfaces but I just get a feeling that it will be slightly too soft for him and he therefore won’t run up to his total best. I really don’t think that he can afford to concede 5lbs to The Old Pretender also.

A 10pts win on The Old Pretender is the order

Selection Rating: ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in the morning.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 10/01/2009

Ayr:

14-00 Chase – Companero – 1/2 Bet365 (10pts Win)

14-30 Hurdle – Endless Power – 14/1 Ladbrokes (2pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds) 14-30 Hurdle – Money Order – 3/1 Various (6pts Win)

15-00 Chase – Gypsy George – 11/2 Paddy SkyBet (5pts Win)

15-00 Chase – See You There – 12/1 Various (2.5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds)

Wetherby:

13-35 Hurdle – The Old Pretender – ABANDONED (10pts Win)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Advised Prices 10/01/2009

Ayr:

14-00 Chase – Companero – 1/2 Bet365 (10pts Win) 1st @ 4/9 :nana

14-30 Hurdle – Endless Power – 14/1 Ladbrokes (2pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds) 3rd @ 9/1 :nana 14-30 Hurdle – Money Order – 3/1 Various (6pts Win) 5th @ 11/4 :(

15-00 Chase – Gypsy George – 11/2 Paddy SkyBet (5pts Win)

2nd @ 5/1 :( 15-00 Chase – See You There – 12/1 Various (2.5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds)

3rd @ 10/1 :nana

Wetherby:

13-35 Hurdle – The Old Pretender – ABANDONED (10pts Win)

Well a pretty poor day all in all, a bit up and down. Still slight profit at Advised.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Saturday 10^th January Overview

Well we just have the Ayr meeting after the abandonment of Wetherby. Three races producing the 5 runners.

Race 1 – Ayr 14-00:

Not the best ever performance by Companero but he got the job done, just! Once again his jumping wasn’t as fluent as his opponents and with 2 to jump he looked beaten by the game Quws Law. He reacted to his jockeys actions though and got over the last with about 1L to catch, he so and went on to win by just ¾L.

1^st

Race 2 – Ayr 14-30:

A couple of runners in this with the favourite Money Order going off at 11/4 and Endless Power going off at 9/1. Money order looked to be struggling from someway out but McCoy got him working again and with one to jump he looked like he could take it, but in the end he didn’t have enough but is certainly one to look out for as that was his 1^st run for well over a year. Endless Power the game front runner never really got his way at the front but kept on well. Jumping the last I just didn’t think he looked as if he was going to get involved but he did and with a furlong to go he had every chance, though he didn’t quite make it. Still a decent 3^rd though.

3^rd & 5^th

Race 3 – Ayr 15-00

Well the most exciting race of the 3 with Frankie Figg and Gypsy George leading the way throughout. The leader FF made a few mistakes which ultimately cost him the race and Gypsy George just didn’t quite have enough in the run in when up against Jass. The other selection See You There put in a pretty good performance to hold on comfortably for 3^rd at good odds. Overall a slight loss in the race but a good watch.

3^rd & 2^nd

Well a bit of a mixed bag today with only a winner in the first race. Had a return in all 3 races but it wasn’t enough to show a profit at SP which returned a loss of 1.56pts, slightly better odds at Advised though generates a small profit of 2.5.pts. Not too sure about my new staking plan of 10pts per race though, will have a look at it over tonight and decide what will happen in the future.

Total Bets: 61 Total Staked: 590pts Total Returned @ Advised: 709.45pts Strike Rate: 27/61 (44.26%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 (Currently on a run of 1) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 319.45pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +119.45pts Profit/Loss at SP: +90.06pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 20.25%

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 12^th January Overview

Not got much time so will just look at the 1 race today.

Fakenham – Left-Handed, Sharp, Undulating Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P F Nicholls (48%), N Henderson (41%) & Jonjo O’Neill (24%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Mick Fitzgerald (53%) & Sam Thomas (36%) & A P McCoy (34%) Going: Good to Soft

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (50%) & Chase (51%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (32%) & Chase (38%)

Selections Monday 12^th January

Fakenham:

15-50 Chase – Decent field for this 12 runner handicap chase.

Don’t Be Bleu made her chase debut lto in a mares event which she won comfortably to Just Poppytee. Looks as though she is running off of a nice mark here as it is only 4lbs higher than her last winning mark. Odds of around 6/1 looks good as she can handle softer ground with no problem and her usual trip again here will also see her well. Trainer is in pretty good nick at the moment also so all in all a pretty safe 5pts E/W looks a good bet.

Selection Rating: ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 12/01/2009

Fakenham:

15-50 Chase – Don’t Be Bleu – 11/2 Sporting Bet (5pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Advised Prices 12/01/2009

Fakenham:

15-50 Chase – Don’t Be Bleu – 11/2 Sporting Bet (5pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds) Fell @ 5/1 :(

Well my banker bet never got a chance to show what he was capable of when falling.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 12^th January Overview

Just the won runner today from Fakenham.

Race 1 – Fakenham 15-50:

Well the selection Don’t Be Bleu was running in midfield throughout but never showed what he was about when falling at the 7th.

Fell

Well just the 1 runner and 1 faller. A loss of 10pts on the day.

Total Bets: 62 Total Staked: 600pts Total Returned @ Advised: 709.45pts Strike Rate: 27/62 (43.54%) Longest Winning Streak: 4

Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 1) Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 309.45pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +109.45pts Profit/Loss at SP: +80.06pts

Yeild% @ Advised: 18.24%

No selections for today (Tuesday 13^th)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 14^th January Overview

A couple of meetings today, which come from Newbury and Newcastle.

Newbury – Left-Handed, Galloping Track with Stiff Fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P F Nicholls (26%), P J Hobbs (19%) & N Henderson (18%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Ruby Walsh (30%), A P McCoy (21%) & Mick Fitzgerald (18%) Going: Soft, Good to Soft in places (Chase course)

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (46%) & Chase (47%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (27%) & Chase (30%)

Newcastle – Left-Handed, Galloping, Testing Track with Stiff Fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N G Richards (25%), Mrs S J Smith (14%) & Howard Johnson (14%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Tony Dobbin (21%), G Lee (15%) & Brian Harding (10%) Going: Soft, Good to Soft in places

Favourite Records:

Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (46%) & Chase (47%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (27%) & Chase (30%)

Selections Wednesday 14^th January

Newbury:

13-20 Chase –

Planet Of Soundwill more than likely go off favourite for this 1 which he is entitled to do. He showed that he is capable of running on soft ground last season and won well lto, even though his opponents probably didn’t run up to anywhere near their best. Richard Johnson seems to have a good pairing with him and he should certainly be involved here come the line.

Greenbridge is the highest rated hurdler in this field and has ran fairly well in all 3 of his Chase starts this season with two 2^nd and a 3^rd. He is improving over fences and the return of Choc Thornton onboard could see the best come out of him. He runs well on soft as shown lto at Doncaster and I feel that if he jumped well and makes some improvement on that run that he is good for a place atleast. 5pts E/W.

Selection Rating: ()

Newcastle:

13-00 Chase – Decent field for this beginners chase and there is 3 I’ll be looking at.

Bold Ransom made his chase debut lto and put in a respectable run, finishing 2rd behind the decent Skippers Brig. Steps up in distance here to 3 miles but he has won at this distance over hurdles so there shouldn’t be a problem there and will probably improve his performance. The softer ground should also suit as his record on soft ground is 3513 which is decent. He is the least exposed of the 3 that I fancy and may well be worth a punt. A 10pts win should suffice.

Hockenheim has 4 chases to his name and the closest he has got to winning was lto where he finished a good 9L behind the impressive Tot O’Whiskey in October. Tot O’Whiskey hasn’t really ran up to his best since then so that doesn’t shout out confidence for Hockenheim. Certainly likes it muddy and is a potentially decent staying chaser but he may find one or two too good for him again here.

Nine De Sivola is one that I look out for but he still hasn’t won a race over fences and he has now had 12 attempts in this country. Does have a pretty good formline over fences with 523422F2222P, but he just doesn’t seem able or willing to put his head in front and he hasn’t been too impressive this season so I will overlook him today, but I would grudge him a victory!

Selection Rating: ()

14-05 Chase –

The Whispererhas been very consistent in his performances so far and makes his season debut here. He seems to go very well fresh so that is a positive, as I say was quite consistent last season so if improvement comes he will have a good chance here as he may be well handicapped on his handicap debut. Likes the soft ground also and with Condon on board improvement is sure to come just based on the jockey.

Scarvagh Diamond should have a good chance in this based on her winter form but she took a heavy fall in May and has failed to impress in her subsequent 2 runs since then. Her 1^st run this season was over hurdles, she went off at 9/2 but ran very poorly eventually getting beaten 65L. She followed that up with another poor run, this time over fences. She has been dropped back 4lbs since that run and goes off at a decent mark off 117, the same weight has her last win came off. It’s never advised to back horses hoping that they will come back to form but I think I’ll stick a couple of pts E/W here.

Stagecoach Opal has had 2 good runs in the last couple of months finishing 2^nd on his season opener then followed that up with a win lto. Has only been bumped up 4lbs for that victory so is sure to get involved again here, especially as she should cope with the ground and the win came over the same distance. A 10pts win will be the bet.

Selection Rating (Scarvagh Diamond): ()

Selection Rating (Stagecoach Opal): ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 14/01/2009

Newbury:

13-20 Chase – Greenbridge – 13/2 Totesport - (5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds)

Newcastle:

13-00 Chase – Bold Ransom– 5/2 Blue Sq & 888Sport - (10pts Win)

14-05 Chase – Scarvagh Diamond – 25/1 Various (2pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds) 14-05 Chase – Stagecoach Opal– 7/2 Various (10pts Win)

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09

Advised Prices 14/01/2009

Newbury:

13-20 Chase – Greenbridge – 13/2 Totesport - (5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) PU @ 5/1 :(

Newcastle:

13-00 Chase – Bold Ransom– 5/2 Blue Sq & 888Sport - (10pts Win)

14-05 Chase – Scarvagh Diamond – 25/1 Various (2pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ Odds) 14-05 Chase – Stagecoach Opal– 7/2 Various (10pts Win)

ABANDONED!

Well another day of just the one runner due to a meeting being cancelled.

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 14^th January Overview

4 Runners spread over the 3 races today, from Newbury and Newcastle. But unfortunately Newcastle was abandoned just 45 minutes before racing.

Race 1 – Newbury 13-20:

Greenbridge was backed into 5/1 but he really failed to run well and was struggling from some way out. He put in a bad jump 3 from home and he was subsequently pulled up by jockey Choc Thornton. A good run for Planet of Sound saw him win comfortably but a poor jump 2 out must have his backers worried for a bit!

PU

Well not a good day with a meeting cancelled which led to just the 1 runner who failed to impress. The profit total is slowly slipping away this month, with January’s total currently sitting at a poor -20.23. Although overall a poor month for jump racing as a whole with many meetings being cancelled left, right and centre. Still confident of making a profit this month if I can string a few winners together.

Total Bets: 63 Total Staked: 610pts Total Returned @ Advised: 709.45pts Strike Rate: 27/63 (42.85%) Longest Winning Streak: 4

Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 2) Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (

Ikorodu Road

) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 299.45pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +99.45pts Profit/Loss at SP: +70.06pts

Yield% @ Advised: 16.30%

[NMc106]

Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 19 January Overview

Just the one meeting today and it is Hereford..

Selections Monday 19^th January

Hereford:

14-50 Hurdle –

Pennek was going to be my overnight selection with Little Shilling the main concern, but due to the ground Little Shilling has passed this so Pennek looks a strong bet to me. Hasn’t been in sublime form this season with form of 573 but could take a few races to get going into his stride. Remains at a decent mark here due to the not so impressive form so if he runs to his potential he has a great chance. Looks as though he could have done with a little bit more distance lto and he has been given the chance to prove that here with him stepping up 2 furlongs into 3 miles 2 furlongs. Ground probably isn’t ideal but he has ran well on soft in the past so its not too much of a worry for me. A 10pts win will be the bet.

Six Day War comes into this on the back of 2 wins but he is penalised 11lbs for his win lto and although he looks as if he could run further a hike of 11lbs and 6 fulongs may not be the ideal situation for him here. So will be interesting to see how he runs and odds of around 12/1 is quite tempting but I will pass on the race and just watch him.

Selection Rating: ()

15-20 Chase –

Weather Permitting didn’t fair too well in non-handicaps and certainly looks the type who once handicapping at his correct distance could do well as a chaser. I’m not sure if this is his right distance but at current odds of 8/1 that looks enough value to have a little bash. This is pretty much a stab in the dark to be honest but he could well be well handicapped and Pipe has said a few good things about him in the past if I recall correctly. 3pts E/W is the bet.

Selection Rating: ()

Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo.