NMc106 Posted March 20, 2009 Author Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 20th March Kelso – Left-Handed, Sharp Track (Hurdles very Sharp) Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N G Richards (22%), Ferdy Murphy (20%) & K G Reveley (19%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Dominic Elsworth (29%), Tony Dobbin (23%) G Lee (11%) Going: Good, Good to Firm in places Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (52%) & Chase (56%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (24%) & Chase (27%) Newbury – Left-Handed, Galloping Track, with Stiffish Fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P Nicholls (27%), N Henderson (19%) P J Hobbs (19%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Ruby Walsh (30%), Tony McCoy (23%) Mick Fitzgerald (18%) Going: Good, Good to Soft in places Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (46%) & Chase (51%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (25%) & Chase (31%) Selections Friday 20th March: Kelso: 14-50 Chase: Role On won very convincing lto at Musselburgh and certainly looked as though he wanted further and he has been put up to 22 furlongs here and he should go well. Trainer is in decent form with a few winners in the past few days and looks as though he is coming into form. Won on good ground lto and goes again on the same surface here. Should go well and certainly has a good chance. Chief Dan George also won well lto but I feel that this trip will be too sharp for him and can’t see him following up. Last run came on good ground so no worries there but he may prefer softer ground and I feel that this will be too quick for him. He moves back up in class and I really think conditions are against him. Razor Royale was a very good stayer hurdler last season rated 137 and after winning his 1st chase lto confidence is sure to be high. The ground could be a little bit quick for him too though and although his jumping has improved he has a fall under his belt so I'm not 100% confident there. Twiston-Davis has a had a poor season overall and although he had 2 winners at Cheltenham I still wouldn’t be confident in backing his mounts until he shows solid form with winning horses. Razor will probably go close but for me there is too much IF for me to back at a forecast of 7/4. Selection Rating: () 16-00 Chase: Cast Iron Casey looks well treated here running off of 125 and form with Kalahari King looks impressive to say the least. Makes his handicap debut here after win at Sedgefield lto, returns to his favoured track and a big run could be on the cards. He was beaten by Kalahari King by just 2¼L here at Kelso and as we know he has gone on and finished a very close 2nd in the Arkle. In his run lto he comfortably beat Chief Dan George who has gone on to win and the form through both of them has to give him an excellent chance here. Nikola ran well lto when dropped back to 2 miles after a few runs at over further, has been raised 2lbs for that which obviously won’t help but the fact that he proved he is capable of running over this distance has to move him into contention. Twiston-Davis has a decent record at Kelso but once again the fact that the yard isn’t buzzing puts me off and I shall pass him, but could certainly go well. Selection Rating: () Newbury: 14-40 Hurdle: Fiftyonefiftyone will love the step up in trip after a good 2nd lto behind According to Dick, he shaped as though he wanted further and he has been granted his wish today. The better ground will also suit but I feel that he could be a very inconsistent type here and will go against him. Henderson only had 3 winners at the Festival but his horses have been running decently overall and certainle has a chance here. Fistral Beach has yet to get his head in front over hurdles and was particularly disappointing lto in his handicap debut and he just didn’t get home. He has been dropped back a furlong here and although he is probably still at his peak distance, if not too far, he will relish the faster ground and I expect him to beat his main opponent on level weights. Nicholls had a very good Cheltenham after a slow 1st day with 5 winners overall and all his horses since the Festival have been there or thereabouts so I feel Fistral Beach will put in his best performance and get off the mark over hurdles. Selection Rating: () Selection Review: 14-40 Newbury – Fistral Beach 14-50 Kelso – Role On 16-00 Kelso – Cast Iron Casey Will post bets and advised prices in a the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted March 20, 2009 Author Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 One early price which I will be taking: Advised Prices 20/03/2009 Kelso 14-50 Chase – Role On – N/A Yet – (5pts EW: 3 places, 1/5 odds) 16-00 Chase – Cast Iron Casey – 5/1 Paddy Power – (10pts Win) Newbury: 14-40 Hurdle – FistralBeach – N/A Yet – (10pts Win) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted March 20, 2009 Author Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 That 5/1 early price taken on Cast Iron Casey looks a massive price now even with the R4 10p reduction. 100/30 now. Remaining advised… Advised Prices 20/03/2009 Kelso 14-50 Chase – Role On – 14/1 Sporting Bet– (5pts EW: 3 places, 1/5 odds) 16-00 Chase – Cast Iron Casey – 5/1 Paddy Power – (10pts Win) Newbury: 14-40 Hurdle – FistralBeach – 15/8 Various – (10pts Win) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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