NMc106 Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 19/01/2009 Hereford: 14-50 Hurdle – Pennek – 7/2 Various - (10pts Win) 15-20 Chase – Weather Permitting – 8/1 Various - (3pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 19th January Overview The 2 runners in 2 races and another poor day for the thread profit. Race 1 – Hereford 14-50: Well some finish this was with a photo between the first 3. With a quarter of a mile to run Maktu was slightly ahead from the Very Man with the selection Pennek looking beaten in 3rd. Jumping the last Maktu jumped the best and Pennek was 3ishL behind still looking beat. But he fought on so well and finished the best of the 3 but still only managing 3rd but it really was a tight finish with the winning distances of a head and a short-head! It looked as though Maktu probably finished the worst of the 3 but ultimately it was his jump at the last which gave him the win. 3rd Race 2 – Hereford 15-20 Weather Permitting was a big drifter and he certainly ran to match the drift. He never jumped fluently and was eventually pulled up after the 4th from home. Was expecting maybe a decent run from him but he really showed no potential here and I wont be following him in the future unless he drops significantly in the weights. PU Well another day of loss and the profit continues to slowly drift away this month. Total Bets: 65 Total Staked: 626pts Total Returned @ Advised: 709.45pts Strike Rate: 27/65 (41.54%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 4) Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 283.45pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +83.45pts Profit/Loss at SP: +54.06pts Yeild% @ Advised: 13.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Tuesday 20th January Overview Just the one meeting again today and it is Sedgefield.. Sedgefield – Left-Handed, Sharp, Undulating, Testing Track with Easy Fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – Ferdy Murphy (16%), Howard Johnson (14%) & Mrs S J Smith (12%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –G Lee (19%), Tony Dobbin (18%) & Kenny Johnson (11%) Going: Soft, Heavy on the Back Straight Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (47%) & Chase (44%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (30%) & Chase (25%) Selections Tuesday 20th January Sedgefield: 12-50 Hurdle – This looks to be a race between 2 decent horses 1 has proven himself over hurdles with a win and a 2nd. And the other has had 2 good runs in bumpers. The proven horse is The Panama Kid who as I say won his hurdling debut and followed that up with a 2nd lto in soft conditions, he seemed to cope ok with the conditions that time but it will be even more testing here and I’m not sure whether he will manage to cope again here. He runs off of a 7lbs penalty due to that win but his 7lbs claimer jockey on board offsets that. Trainer is in good form recently with a few places but not any wins of note. The ground is obviously the main issue and I will plump with his main opponent based on that. Strokestown has had two very good runs in bumpers so far this season and he shows a lot of potential as he looks as though he could make a good hurdler. Jockey pairing continues so there is no trouble there and trainer seems to be in pretty good form with a couple of good winners at Haydock on Saturday. He has won on heavy ground over in Ireland and the ground could be the major factor here. Hopefully he takes to the hurdles and puts in a good performance to get his hurdling career off to a flyer. 10pts win. Selection Rating: () 13-20 Hurdle – I will be hoping for a double for McCain Jnr after the first 2 races as I will be backing his good thing in this division 2 of the novices hurdle. Fiendish Flame ran very well last time out and he still looked green so hopefully the experience will have done him good and he should really win this quite comfortably. The ground will be no problem to him as testing ground seems to be his thing as he showed lto. More experienced jockey on board is also to improve his performance so I am confident that he will hose up comfortably here. Selection Rating : () Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 20/01/2009 Sedgefield: 12-50 Hurdle – Strokestown – 11/8 Various - (10pts Win) 13-20 Hurdle – Fiendish Flame – 1/2 Various - (10pts WIN) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 20/01/2009 Sedgefield: 12-50 Hurdle – Strokestown – 11/8 Various - (10pts Win) 1st @ 5/6 :nana 13-20 Hurdle – Fiendish Flame – 1/2 Various - (10pts WIN) 1st @ 1/2 :nana Pretty good day with 2 winners from 2! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Tuesday 20th January Overview Pretty good day today making a decent profit with 2 winners out of 2 selections. Race 1 – Sedgefield 12-50: Well I said beforehand that this race was going to be between the 2 market leaders but unfortunately it was over before it had really started. The selection Strokestown jumped badly left at the first flight hampering his main rival who subsequently fell. But things didn’t improve from there on the jumping front and he seemed to hang left throughout and although he still won he did make harder work of it than what he should have. An improvement in jumping though and he is sure to improve. 1st Race 2 – Sedgefield 13-20 A very comfortable victory for Fiendish Flame who made all throughout and was never challenged on the way to a 10L victory. He took some holding at the start which could mean that there is still a lot to come from him and he could easily take another of these types of races. 1st A better day today and hopefully I can build on that for the remainder of the month and beyond! A profit at advised of 18.75pts and a profit at SP of 13.33pts Total Bets: 67 Total Staked: 646pts Total Returned @ Advised: 748.20pts Strike Rate: 29/67 (43.28%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 (Currently on a run of 2) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 302.20pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +102.2pts Profit/Loss at SP: +67.39pts Yeild% @ Advised: 15.82% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 21th January Overview Just the one meeting today, due to the cancellation of Huntingdon. The racing comes from Musselburgh. .. Musselburgh – Right-Handed, Sharp Track with Stiffish Fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – Howard Johnson (26%), N G Richards (18%) & K G Reveley (17%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Denis O’Regan (27%), Mr T Greenall (21%) & G Lee (20%) Going: Soft, Heavy on the Back Straight Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (49%) & Chase (17%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (27%) & Chase (24%) Selections Wednesday 21st January Musselburgh: 13-00 Hurdle – This looks as though it could be a race between the 2 favourite but I fancy Woody Waller above Sea Storm. Woody Waller has had the two runs over hurdles finishing 3rd on both occasions but I feel that today’s race isn’t as strong as those two he participated in before. Goes quite well on a softish ground so that shouldn’t be a problem for him here today. He has a 5lbs claimer on board to further his weight advantage over Sea Storm and I feel that he will take full advantage of the weight. Howard Johnson has a good record here though he doesn’t seem to be in magical form of late. Sea Cadet has won a couple of races over hurdles and has put in some pretty good runs in decent races at courses such as Aintree. I’m not 100% convinced that he will cope with the softer ground here and I also feel that he will have to hope that Woody Waller doesn’t run to his full calibre. He is a massive 18lbs worse off than his main opponent and I really cannot see him overcoming that today. Selection Rating: () 14-30 Hurdle – Calcutta Cup won by a head lto to Burnswood although he didn’t jump impeccably so improvement on that front could help his clause here. Has ran on softer ground plenty times and ran well on it so all is good on that front. The only problem is that he runs off of a penalty and I don’t think he can overcome that as there is a couple of handy recruits in this. Casual Affair looked very competent on his hurdling debut putting in a very good performance to finish just 6L behind the impressive Red Moloney. He should improve on his jumping for that outing and he could take some beating here as he certainly has decent pace from his flat days. His only run over hurdles came here at Musselburgh in very similar conditions so this really is set up for him if he can put in a similar performance. Selection Rating: () Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 21/01/2009 Musselburgh: 13-00 Hurdle – Woody Waller – 15/8 Paddy Power - (10pts Win) 14-30 Hurdle – Casual Affair– 9/4 Various - (10pts WIN) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 21/01/2009 Musselburgh: 13-00 Hurdle – Woody Waller – 15/8 Paddy Power - (10pts Win) 1st @ 5/4 :nana 14-30 Hurdle – Casual Affair– 9/4 Various - (10pts WIN) 4th @ 5/2 :( Well a 50% strike rate today but I was hoping to make it 4 on trot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednessday 21th January Overview 1 winner from the 2 runners today. 1st ran very well but a dissapointing run in the 2nd didn't impress. Race 1 – Musselburgh 13-00: A good run by Woody Waller saw him win very comfortably by 7L. He ran in midfield until the 3rd last where he went into a slight lead. Simple Jim was staying on well but after Woody Waller had jumped the last he simply went away from his rivals and won very easily. He certainly looks one to keep an eye on and he got the day off to a good start. 1st Race 2 – Musselburgh 14-30 Unfortunately it wasn’t going to be two out of two again today and Causal Affair really didn’t run up the promise that he showed in his hurdling debut. He seemed to be going fine but in the end he just didn’t have enough to last and eventually trailed in, in 4th position. 4th Not the best of days but still a slight profit made at both Advised and SP. Unfortunately 4 wins on the trot wasn’t possible but things are improving. Profit at advised was 8.75pts and profit at SP was just £2.50. Total Bets: 69 Total Staked: 666pts Total Returned @ Advised: 776.95pts Strike Rate: 30/69 (43.48%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 1) Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 310.95pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +110.95pts Profit/Loss at SP: +69.89pts Yeild% @ Advised: 16.66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Thursday 22nd January Overview Couple of meetings here, not looking too promising for Warwick but hopefully Fontwell will go ahead at least! Warwick – Left-Handed, Sharp Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N Henderson (39%), A King (28%) & P Nicholls (24%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Mick Fitzgerald (29%), Robert Thornton (24%) & Richard Johnson (20%) Going: Heavy, Soft in Places Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (41%) & Chase (63%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (39%) & Chase (34%) Fontwell – Left-Handed, Fairly Sharp Hurdles Track / Undulating Chase Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P Nicholls (27%), D Pipe (22%) & G L Moore (20%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Tony McCoy (26%), Sam Thomas (22%) & Jamie Moore (19%) Going: Heavy, Soft in Places Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (42%) & Chase (54%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (25%) & Chase (37%) Selections Thursday 22nd January Fontwell: 13-20 Hurdle – Jim Bob Girl is well in on the weights for this and is really the only one to have proved herself at this distance and because of that she gets the nod. Ran very well lto in a class 3 at Market Rasen in very testing conditions. It is likely to be very testing again here today and with none of the other runners having experience at this distance she could use hers to take this. She is at least 7lbs better off than any of her other rivals and as long as she runs up to her standard she will go very close. Bench Warrant fell lto but looked as though he was going to go on and be very close at least. Has had 2 other attempts over hurdles with a 3rd on his debut followed up by a 2nd. Highest rated in the field but my main concern is the distance, the furthest he has ran at in his career is only 23 furlongs; 4 less than what is required here today. He is entitle to progress though and I would definitely rate him as second best in the contest, if he last the distance he will probably go very close. Selection Rating: () 15-20 Hurdle – Penn Da Benn took a while to get going but seemed to click into place lto with a very good win Exeter. He is upped 10lbs for that win but a similar performance and he could well overcome it quite easily. As I say though he is very inconsistent and I really wouldn’t be confident in putting my money on him especially as he steps up into an unknown distance for him. He could well overcome the distance and win well again here but for me the inconsistency factor puts me off him here today, maybe in the future when he proves himself more. The Wooden Spoon put in a pretty good performance on his seasonal debut lto at Chepstow where he finished 3rd behind Heathcliff over 2 furlongs longer than we have here. He should come on for the run here and remains at a good mark of 121 just 1lb higher than that run. Will probably be the front runner of the race and if given his way could go very close here. Clearly prefers Left-Handed tracks with a record of 39422113 compared to 375474 on the right-handed tracks. The ground should pose no problem and place claims at least here for this one. Selection Rating: () Warwick: 14-40 Chase – This one is here for the taking for Ring The Boss. Finished 4th of 4 ltobut was up against the extremely impressive Market Man and Kicks For Free who is no mug either. Oh Crick also participated in that and beat BTB by 1¾L that time but BTB is 3lbs better off this time so should reverse the form. He is well in on the weights for this based on ratings and as long as his jumping improves for his run lto he should really win this with no sweat. Distance and conditions should cause no bother and I fancy him to take this ahead of Oh Crick. Selection Rating: () Will post up bets and advised prices in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 22, 2009 Author Share Posted January 22, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 22/01/2009 Fontwell: 13-20 Hurdle – Jim Bobs Girl – ABANDONED 15-20 Hurdle – The Wooden Spoon– ABANDONED Warwick: 14-40 Chase – Ring The Boss– 11/10 Various - (10pts Win) Might add another race due to the cancellation of Fontwell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 22, 2009 Author Share Posted January 22, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 RACE ADDED: - Warwick: 15-10 Hurdle – Honour High goes up 4lbs for a decent 2nd lto, finishing 3¾L behind Little Shilling. Conditions are very testing here though and probably not ideal for Andrew Thornton’s ride and that is the reason I will be overlooking him here today, he might sneak a place if he takes to the ground but it is certainly too big an if in my eyes. Fair Question will certainly love the ground with most of his runs coming on soft or heavy ground recently. Has put in 3 decent runs this season and goes up 4lbs for his 2nd lto behind The Very Man who ran well on his next outing to give promise to the form. Still hasn’t quite reached the top of his form since leaving Venetia Williams’ yard and I doubt whether he will get back to that today. Trainer and jockey pairing are in good form with a couple of wins Sedgefield and Haydock recently so not totally ruled out. Heathcliff is the form horse coming into this with 2 wins on the bounce. Is raised another 11lbs for his win lto where he had to overcome a 14lbs rise that time. So he is raised 25lbs in just 2 races but he could well overcome the raise again here and should certainly go close. Still has that 7lbs claimer on board and I think he will make it a hat-trick here today Selection Rating (Heathcliff): () Selection Rating (Fair Question): () TODAYS ADVISED PRICES: Advised Prices 22/01/2009 Fontwell: 13-20 Hurdle – Jim Bobs Girl – ABANDONED 15-20 Hurdle – The Wooden Spoon– ABANDONED Warwick: 14-40 Chase – Ring The Boss– 11/10 Various - (10pts Win) 15-10 Hurdle – Heathcliff – 15/8 Sporting Bet & Sky Bet (10pts Win) 15-10 Hurdle – Fair Question – 7/2 Various (6pts Win) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 22, 2009 Author Share Posted January 22, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 TODAYS ADVISED PRICES: Advised Prices 22/01/2009 Fontwell: 13-20 Hurdle – Jim Bobs Girl – ABANDONED 15-20 Hurdle – The Wooden Spoon– ABANDONED Warwick: 14-40 Chase – Ring The Boss– 11/10 Various - (10pts Win) 1st @ 10/11 :nana 15-10 Hurdle – Heathcliff – 15/8 Sporting Bet & Sky Bet (10pts Win) 1st @ 2/1 :nana 15-10 Hurdle – Fair Question – 7/2 Various (6pts Win) 4th @ 2/1 :( Another day of profit that makes it 3 in a row now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 22, 2009 Author Share Posted January 22, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Thursday 22nd January Overview Well Fontwell was Abandoned leaving just one meeting again. Race 1 –Warwick 14-40: The pace was set by The Vicar who led throughout and jumped well throughout. Ring The Boss was on his tail and moved into the lead with 2 to jump and he went on and would probably have won anyway even if The Vicar hadn’t made a bad mistake at the last. The main rival in the market to RTB was Oh Crick who unfortuanltely fell before he could really show what he was capable of. A good start to the day. 1st Race 2 – Warwick 15-10 The good day continues when my main selection of the race and joint favourite Heathcliff got a very good Hat-Trick under his belt despite flying up the weights. He couldn’t have won any more comfortably and overcame the weight difference very easily indeed. Saver bet Fair Question was well backed into joint favouritism but only managed to finish 4th and was a massive distance back. He made all for most of the way but couldn’t cope when things got tough. 1st & 4th Another day of profit and a good day overall with a decent profit made in both races. A little profit for the month as a whole now and in a bit of a run so hopefully can turn this dodgy month into a success after all! Profit at advised today was 23.75pts and at SP of 23.09pts Total Bets: 72 Total Staked: 692pts Total Returned @ Advised: 826.70pts Strike Rate: 32/72 (44.44%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 (Currently on a run of 2) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 334.70pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +134.70pts Profit/Loss at SP: +92.98pts Yeild% @ Advised: 19.47% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 22, 2009 Author Share Posted January 22, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 23rd January Overview Doncaster is the only meeting today after the early abandonment of Newbury. Having a glance at the card there looks to be some hard studying need to decipher some of these races!! Doncaster – Left-Handed, Galloping, Flat Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – H D Daly (41%), Venetia Williams (27%) & P Nicholls (21%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Mark Bradburne (32%), Same Thomas (20%) & Noel Fehily (19%) Going: Good to Soft Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (21%) & Chase (40%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (24%) & Chase (32%) Selections Friday 23rd January Doncaster: 15-05 Hurdle –. Silk Drum has won 2 of his 3 outings over hurdles and could well make it 3 out of 4 here even off a 10lbs penalty. Won his hurdling debut very comfortably back in August and followed that up with a close 2nd in a listed event at Wetherby. He got back to winning ways lto with a very comfortably 29L victory on soft ground. Distance and going will suit again here and he is bound to be close at least come the line. Motarid has finished 2nd in both his hurdling starts. Beaten by 1L on his debut then got even closer next time being pipped by just a head. Seems to cope with all sorts of goings but I cant see him getting his 1st win today coming up against a potentially good thing in Silk Drum. I may back the both of them depending on what odds are available in the morning but Silk Drum is certainly the 1st choice. Selection Rating: () 15-40 Chase – Completely wide open even this that is very hard to judge but managed to pick out a couple of E/W opportunities. Berings Express has 2 chase handicaps under his belt both off this mark off 121 and I fell that the improvement is coming and could well come in this race. Races in a much bigger field here and McCoy’s jockeyship really could prove useful here and I’m counting on him to do this business. The little cut in the ground shouldn’t cause any problems as he has races plenty on good to soft and has a decent record on it in the past. Jonjo has a had a few good finishes recently and Berings Express could add to them here today. Rathmulen has been very consistent since going over fences with 2 wins and a 2nd in four races, the other was a 3rd in a field of 4 but that was his seasonal debut so can be excused. Won lto and therefore runs off of a 7lbs penalty but I’m sure he will be hiked up more than 7lbs for the win so a good chance to get in before the handicapper. Infact just checking that he is actually due to go up 8lbs so we are 1lb in (!). Ground will be no problem to him and he steps back to 16 furlongs which may be a sign of trying something. I’m sure he will go close and I’m confident he can get a place at least with the 4 available. Selection Rating (Berings Express) : () Selection Rating (Rathmulen): () Will post up bets and advised prices in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 23, 2009 Author Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 23/01/2009 Doncaster: 15-05 Hurdle – Silk Drum – 11/10 BlueSQ - (10pts Win) 15-40 Chase – Berings Express – 7/1 Various (5pts E/W: 4 Places, ¼ Odds) 15-40 Chase – Rathmulen – 15/2 Sky Bet (5pts E/W: 4 Places, ¼ Odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 23, 2009 Author Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 23/01/2009 Doncaster: 15-05 Hurdle – Silk Drum – 11/10 BlueSQ - (10pts Win) 1st @ 11/10 :nana 15-40 Chase – Berings Express – 7/1 Various (5pts E/W: 4 Places, ¼ Odds) PU @ 9/2 :( 15-40 Chase – Rathmulen – 15/2 Sky Bet (5pts E/W: 4 Places, ¼ Odds) PU @ 13/2 :( A loss on the day but a very pleasing run from Silk Drum was nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 23, 2009 Author Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 23rd January Overview Just the one meeting today and it was from Doncaster. Race 1 –Doncaster 15-05: A great start to the day saw Silk Drum put in a fantastic performance to absolutely destroy his opponents on the way to an impressive 15L win over Motarid. Silk Drum wasn’t too well backed on the run into the race but the hurdler put in a great performance to defy a 10lbs penalty and win very comfortably. 1st Race 2 – Doncaster 15-40 Not a good race at all and both selections were pulled up after 4 from home. The well backed Berings Express was struggling from the off a receiving reminders after only a few fences, he never got going and was very disappointing. The other selection Rathmulen was bounding along at the front quite well and was jumping well aswell until making 1 really bad mistake to cause him to lose his stride, his jumping went to pot after that and he never recovered. PU & PU Not the best day and an overall loss of 9pts at both advised and SP was the total for the. Total Bets: 75 Total Staked: 722pts Total Returned @ Advised: 847.70pts Strike Rate: 33/75 (44.00%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 1) Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 325.70pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +125.70pts Profit/Loss at SP: +8..98pts Yeild% @ Advised: 17.41% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 23, 2009 Author Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Saturday 24th January Overview Well its Cheltenham time again and there will be some good racing from there as always. A few good races from Doncaster as well so hopefully a good day of racing awaits! I think I’ll just focus on Cheltenham though. Cheltenham – Left-Handed, Galloping, Undulating and Testing Track with Stiff Fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P Nicholls (14%), Jonjo O’Neill (14%) & A King (13%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Ruby Walsh (22%), Robert Thornton (15%) & A P McCoy (13%) Going: Heavy Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (36%) & Chase (34%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (25%) & Chase (19%) Selections Saturday 24th January Cheltenham: 12-55 Hurdle –. Smart field for this but for me there is really only one that can win this and that is the phenomenally impressive Diamond Harry who is my selection for the Ballymore and I am sure he will make it 6 in a row. Is unbeaten in 5 starts, 3 of which have came over hurdles and he couldn’t have won them any easier. He is yet to run on Heavy ground yet though he does take very nicely to soft so hopefully the ground will be fine for him here. Don’t really have to make a case for him as if he runs to his ability he will certainly win this and I’m looking forward to him running up that Cheltenham hill and seeing how he copes with it. Is likely to go off odds-on and the 1/2 forecasted by the RP really doesn’t put me off as he is a sublime horse who could be an absolute machine of a chaser in a year or so time, but for the time being he should win tomorrow! Selection Rating: () 13-30 Chase – Another good race and another with a few possibilities. Hennessy will probably be running a few furlongs below his favoured distance of around 3 miles but the testing conditions will see him relying on all his stamina and I fell that that could be the difference here for a potentially very well handicapped horse. Won earlier this month on his seasonal debut and races today 1lb lower than his hurdling mark and he’s probably a better chaser than what he was hurdler. He will come on for that run lto at Folkestone where he peat Fair Point who is certainly no mug at this game and the good ground wasn’t ideal for him there so all the better for today. Trainer is far from in form though and that is my only doubt as otherwise I would have him down as a good winner. Tricky Trickster is another who has had a good season chasing so far with a 2nd on his debut followed up by a good win lto. He is whacked up 10lbs for that win though and I’m not sure whether he will overcome such a large hike in this testing conditions. I opposed him last time and I was of course wrong to do as he won, but I feel I have missed the chance too back him to win as his rating may just be too high, especially for today in this field. Ping Ping Sivola also has to come into consideration for this despite failing to win on his last three starts where he has finished 2nd everytime. This will be his 6th run this season and for me that might be just too many in this high standard of racing. Williams has won this race twice recently so she knows what to do here but with him physically going up another 6lbs for the change of apprentice jockey I wouldn’t be able to back him confidently to win and I would need around 13/2 to back him for an E/W shot, but the forecasted 4/1 does seem more like the odds that you would be offered. Selection Rating: () 14-35 Chase – Cracker of a race this with 4 standout horses for me amongst 8 great runners. Nozic beat Tidal Bay comfortably lto by 7L and is currently more fancied by the bookmakers with 4/1 currently available about him with 13/2 looking the TidalBay odds. Why this is the case I have no idea as lto Nozic was running off of 18lbs less than TidalBay when today they go off level weights and in my eyes there is no way that he can beat TidalBay off levels! So that’s him out of contention! Tidal Bay the most consistent horse in the race by a mile and in my eyes a place guaranteed so the odds of 13/2 available is about the best E/W steal you’ll see and Ill definitely be taking it on. Phenomenal career record of course of 22111221111211122 with the boldened results being his results from here at Cheltenham and the red font being runs in heavy ground. As you can see he has a pretty good record here and a good record on heavy ground even though he hasn’t ran on it for some time, a good 2nd here on heavy is the key though and I feel he could run away with this should he perform well, and with him still improving he could put in a great performance. I don’t think he has been at his best yet this season despite finishing only 10L behind Master Minded and beaten 7L lto by a pretty good horse receiving 18lbs. Howard Johnson is in great form at the minute with Denis O’Regan, with winners coming from everywhere so a great chance for Tiday Bay to get winning back on his radar. This obviously wont be straight forward though especially with the likes of Halcon Genelardais who is potentially in on the weights over TidalBay as he receives 6lbs from his rival despite being only being rated 2lbs worse than him. Decent season so far with a 2nd and 3rd which came in the Welsh National. The problem with Halcon here is the distance as he really does like a fair skite and the 3 miles usually isn’t enough for him, the heavy will obviously make it feel longer and will make it much harder work but I’m not really sure if heavy is his thing after struggling in testing conditions here a couple of years ago. So obviously a good horse with conditions not ideal for him it would seem, and with him currently marked up at 5/2 that is a certain no bet for me. Star De Mohaison was starting to struggle a bit and after a poor season opener he needed to pull his socks up, which he did last month putting in a fine run to finish a very close 2nd to Mon Mome over course and distance here. Ruby Walsh has chosen to go for Nozic in this which to me is a strange decision as I would far rather have my money on the Star than Nozic as I feel he would need some improvement. Geraghty on board for this then and that wont be a problem as he was the rider for his run lto and he certainly worked him. Has never ran on heavy ground before and due to that I'm no backing him here though it will be interesting to see how he performs, hopefully well. Selection Rating: () Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 23, 2009 Author Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 24/01/2009 Cheltenham: 12-35 Hurdle – Diamond Harry – NO ADVISED YET - (10pts Win) 13-30 Chase – Hennessy – NO ADVISED YET (5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 14-35 Chase – Tidal Bay – 13/2 Ladbrokes (10pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) So just advised price for Tidal Bay so far and a 10pts E/W is the bet. Steal of the day in my eyes at odds as big as that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 24/01/2009 Cheltenham: 12-35 Hurdle – Diamond Harry – 8/15 Various - (10pts Win) 13-30 Chase – Hennessy –11/2 Various - (5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 14-35 Chase – Tidal Bay – 13/2 Ladbrokes - (10pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) Well that’s the advised prices for all races now. Good Luck Everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 24/01/2009 Cheltenham: 12-35 Hurdle – Diamond Harry – 8/15 Various - (10pts Win) 1st @ 8/15 :nana 13-30 Chase – Hennessy –11/2 Various - (5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 6th @ 13/2 :( 14-35 Chase – Tidal Bay – 13/2 Ladbrokes - (10pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 3rd @ 9/2 :) Well that’s the advised prices for all races now. Good Luck Everyone. Well a slight loss overall, but a good days racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Saturday 24th January Overview A good days racing from Cheltenham. Race 1 – Cheltenham 12-55: A good race this and Diamond Harry was forced to come off the bridle for the 1st time in his career by the very game Bensalem. The Ballymore prospect was cut into 3’s for the said race and continues to looks to be a really good prospect. Hung left on the run in and was all on his own so a great credit to him from finding the pace when asked. A really good run from Bensalem showed that he really is a class act also and certainly looks 1 for the future. 6 from 6 for Diamond Harry now. 1st Race 2 – Cheltenham 13-30 Not a good run by top weight Hennessy and he was soon beaten. Fantastic run by Ping Pong Sivola and she certainly looks to be back on track though will be rapped up the handicapped for that win, that is a certainty! 6th Race 3 – Cheltenham 14-35 TidalBay was always going to get a place and that is all he got. Not ideal ground for him and certainly not his best distance but he fights and fight and fights, a sublime horse in my eyes and will never go down unfighting (if that’s a word!). Joe Lively put in a great run to win and he really does look a good prospect once more. 3rd A slight loss on the day overall but all in all a great day of racing, which Cheltenham always provides. Diamond Harry put in a good effort and although TidalBay lost his 1-2 record he still gets a place so I am delighted with that! Overall loss at advised was 1.67pts and 5.67pts at SP. Total Bets: 78 Total Staked: 762pts Total Returned @ Advised: 886.03pts Strike Rate: 35/78 (44.87%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 (Currently on a run of 1) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 324.03pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +124.03pts Profit/Loss at SP: +78.31pts Yeild% @ Advised: 16.28% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 26, 2009 Author Share Posted January 26, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 26th January Overview 2 meetings today from Kempton and Ludlow. Kempton – Right-Handed, Sharpish, Flat Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N Henderson (26%), P Nicholls (26%) & N Twiston-Davis (21%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Ruby Walsh (22%), Mick Fitzgerald (28%) & Robert Thornton (21%) Going: Soft, Good to Soft in places on the Chase course Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (40%) & Chase (47%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (23%) & Chase (31%) Ludlow – Right-Handed, Sharp Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N Henderson (32%), Venetia Williams (24%) & Jonjo O’Neill (21%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –A P McCoy (23%), Noel Fehily (20%) & Richard Johnson (19%) Going: Soft, Good to Soft in places on the Chase course Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (39%) & Chase (42%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (27%) & Chase (36%) Selections Monday 26th January Kempton: 13-00 Hurdle – Riverside Theatre put in 3 fantastic runs in bumpers winning 2 of them and finishing 3rd in the other behind very competent opponents in Diamond Harry and Shalone. He was 2nd on his hurdling debut, beaten by a good 14L by Copper Bleu who is potentially another very handy type. The soft ground mightn’t be ideal for him as he probably prefers real good ground so that is a downside. Henderson has a great record here at Kempton winning 26% of his races and a good run could see him improve that record here, he is pretty good nick just now but Nicholls is right back on form with 2 great winners at Cheltenham. Al Amaan won 1 from 8 starts on the flat over in France and a good run is expected by connections here and I'm not brave enough to oppose him just in case he does put in an expected good run. Nicholls got back to form at Cheltenham on Saturday when we saw Big Fella Thanks and Big Bucks both come up with excellent wins. He that wasn’t the case I probably would have preferred Riverside Theatre but based on that Al Amaan gets the nod here, he has been gelded since lto which is also a positive. Selection Rating: () 14-05 Chase – Au Courant is unbeaten from his 3 runs; 1 bumper; 1 hurdle and most recently 1 chase. He won his chase debut which included Quickbeam but he fell and probably would have won if he had stayed on his feet. An improved performance willl certainly be needed if he is to keep his unbeaten record going as this is a close race and could take a bit of winning. The ground will suit as 2 of his 3 runs have came on softer ground but he does step up to the 3 mile mark having only previously ran 4 miles 4½ furlongs. Itsa Legend is rated 2lbs higher than Au Courant and runs off the same weight so should be in, but he failed to run well off a similar mark over hurdles last season and was a big disappointment. Made his chase debut lto beating the now in-form Big Fella Thanks though I refuse to take that form as it stands as Big Fella Thanks ran extremely poorly and I'm not sure what was wrong with Nicholls’ runner during the race. So although he won his chase debut he will have to improve here and I would rate him as 3rd best in this field behind Au Courant and Lodge Lane. Lodge Lane has won 6 of his 8 starts with the failed attempts coming from Cheltenham in very good quality races where he really didn’t have much chance. Has 1 run under his belt this season in which he comfortably beat Wichita Lineman by 7L. That was his chase debut and he did jump soundly throughout apart from a couple of errors but nothing to seriously get worried about. He is sure to improve for that run and he will probably have ironed out his slight jumping flaws and so I expect him to comfortably take this. The ground and distance will pose no problem as soft ground is certainly his thing. Perfect consitions for him here and I'm sure he’ll make it 2 out of 2 over fences. Currently 20/1 in an open market for Royal & Sun Alliance and although he has only ever been beaten at Cheltenham I fancy him to do quite well in the RSA. Selection Rating: () 15-50 Chase – Pop Ahead is 8lbs up for his narrow victory lto and I feel he may struggle here as although he has shown promise he seems to be a tad inconsistent at times. Tony McCoy on board is a positive as he seems to have gotten the best out of him on the couple of runs hes had on him. Also drops back down to 20 furlongs here today which is probably his shortest distance though he does seem to run better when he has a little further. Trainer Jonjo has been in mixed form recently with places and a few being pulled up, he hasn’t a winner since the 17th at Wincanton. Just Jaffa could be well handicapped here on his seasonal debut as he runs only 4lbs higher than his last win over fences but he does run with a 3lbs claimer today which should also help and Coleman is certainly a pretty good jockey. He goes well on soft ground and this distance will be fine though could have done with a couple of extra furlongs but it isn’t too much of a problem. Venetia Williams had a winner at Cheltenham on the 24th so could well be getting back into form and based on that Just Jaffa will be the selection. I shall only go E/W due to it being his season opener but he can certainly win this. Selection Rating: () Ludlow: 14-55 Chase – Never usually get involved in this Amateur riders’ events but I'm going to have a small each way on The Luder. The Luder has been pulled up on both his starts this season but I feel he wasn’t right both times. He now sits at a good mark and with blinkers back on I feel he could go close here. Has shown ability in the past and the distance and ground will be ideal for him, plus anything can happen in these types of event. I may get a decent run for my money here, though of course I am not to optimistic! Selection Rating: () 16-00 Hurdle – Nortonthorpe Lad remains off the same mark as lto where he was 4th at Wincanton. Ran for the 1st time on soft ground there and he seemed to run ok but he clearly prefers good ground over soft. Is a consistent type though having placed every time in his last 8 runs (before his run lto). So he certainly doesn’t need good ground but it is in his interests so he will be passed up. Fortunate Isle won a non-handicap lto and has since been put up 3lbs for his handicap debut here. Goes very well on soft ground and that is the main reason he selected over Nortonthorpe Lad. Goes well with the jockey and trainer Fahey is in pretty good form coming into this with a winner and two seconds yesterday from three runners. Should get involved in the places as least. Selection Rating: () Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 26, 2009 Author Share Posted January 26, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 26/01/2009 Kempton: 13-00 Hurdle – Al Amaan – 11/4 Sky Bet & Sporting Bet - (10pts Win) 14-05 Chase – Lodge Lane – Evs Ladbrokes - (10pts Win) 15-50 Chase – JustJaffa – 11/2 Sporting Bet - (5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 odds) Ludlow: 14-55 Chase – The Luder – 25/1 Various – (2pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 odds) 16-00 Hurdle – Fortunate Isle – 8/1 Sky Bet – (5pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 26, 2009 Author Share Posted January 26, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 26/01/2009 Kempton: 13-00 Hurdle – Al Amaan – 11/4 Sky Bet & Sporting Bet - (10pts Win) 4th @ 6/1 :( 14-05 Chase – Lodge Lane – Evs Ladbrokes - (10pts Win) Pulled Up @ 8/11 :( 15-50 Chase – JustJaffa – 11/2 Sporting Bet - (5pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 odds) Fell @ 6/1 :( Ludlow: 14-55 Chase – The Luder – 25/1 Various – (2pts E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 odds) 6th @ 33/1 :( 16-00 Hurdle – Fortunate Isle – 8/1 Sky Bet – (5pts E/W: 3 Places, ¼ odds) 7th @ 9/1 A absolutely horrible day and sets a new record for the biggest loss in a day since the start of the thread :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 26, 2009 Author Share Posted January 26, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 26th January Overview A woeful day with no returns on anything. Race 1 – Kempton 13-00: Al Amaan was a massive drifter before the off hitting over 10/1 on Betfair even though his early price wasn’t even 3/1. The market spoke the truth and he was never really involved, the pace was probably not right for him and he was no where near the impressive Riverside Theatre. 4th Race 2 – Kempton 14-05 An astonishing run from the heavily fancied Lodge Lane saw him almost fall at all of the first 3 fences and he didn’t improve much after that. He looked ridiculously novicey throughout and was just guessing at the fences every time. Seemed to be a totally different horse than on his previous runs and would be interesting to find out what the problem was! PU Race 3 – Ludlow 14-55 The Luder, as expected, went to the front and tried to make all. He stayed a decent amount of the way but was then simply passed and he never got close again. He was a very distant 6th in the end 6th Race 4 – Kempton 15-50 Just Jaffa was running a decent, although not special, race when he fell heavily 3 from home. He was about 10L behind the leader at the time of his fall and he looked to be losing distance anyway. Fell Race 5 – Ludlow 16-00 Fortunate Isle was another who wasn’t well backed and he really looks to be under the handicapper thumb after today’s run. He was one paced throughout and really failed to show anything when asked the question. Capped off the day perfectly! 7th A woeful race which started with a massive drifter and led into an almost laughable performace from the RSA ‘contender’. No chance! Overall loss on the day of a very poor 44pts, losing a 1/3 of the total profit built up. Total Bets: 83 Total Staked: 806pts Total Returned @ Advised: 886.03pts Strike Rate: 35/83 (42.17%) Longest Winning Streak: 4 Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 5) Highest Priced Winner: 12/1 ((14/1 Advised)) (The Ring) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 280.03pts Profit/Loss at Advised: +80.03pts Profit/Loss at SP: +34.31pts Yeild% @ Advised: 9.93% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 27, 2009 Author Share Posted January 27, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Tuesday 27th January Overview 2 meetings today from Taunton and Folkestone. Hopefully can claw back some of the loss that was made yesterday. Folestone – Right-Handed, Undulating Track with Easy Fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N Henderson (48%), O Sherwood (25%) & A King (21%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Tony McCoy (32%), Mick Fitzgerald (26%) & Robert Thornton (22%) Going: Heavy Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (48%) & Chase (46%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (29%) & Chase (37%) Taunton – Right-Handed, Sharp Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – A King (29%), P Nicholls (27%) & Venetia Williams (22%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) –Robert Thornton (27%), Same Thomas (24%) & Tony McCoy (23%) Going: Soft, Heavy in places Favourite Records: Non-Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (48%) & Chase (35%) Handicap (Win %) – Hurdle (29%) & Chase (28%) Selections Tuesday 27th January Folkestone: 13-50 Hurdle – Den Of Iniquity looks to have the most potential and is the least exposed here having not run for 685 days. Won 2 bumpers, both at Warwick; 1 being a valuable Grade 1 race and that was run on heavy ground so more positives coming into this. Was well held lto at the Cheltenham Festival 2007 in the champion bumper where he was sent off at 7/1 but failed to really get involved. Is potentially in a different class from his opponents here but the lengthy spell is the reason for getting decent odds. If he is ready I feel he will win, and I will back him as I say decent odds are available. Selection Rating: () 14-50 Hurdle – Alderluck won two class 6 bumpers before making his hurdling debut lto where he won by ¾L to the 129 rated Finney, and the form looks decent as Finney won off of 129 on his next run after that. Won his 1st bumper on soft ground but the ground is heavy here today so will certainly be a hell of a lot more testing. He concedes 7lbs to my Selection The Old Pretender though he does run with a 7lbs claimer on board to offset the penalty. Trainer hasn’t a win for some time though he doesn’t have many runners but it doesn’t look as though they are performing to their best so another negative on his back The Old Pretender is highly regarded by connections and I have tried to back him in his last 2 runs but both meetings have been cancelled so it has been 57 days since his last outing. That outing he finished 2nd to Marty’s Mission, he is sure to improve for that run though as he still looked a little green. Before that he ran in 2 decent bumpers; winning the 1st very comfortably then followed that up with a very promising run in the Class 1 Grade 2 bumper at Newbury where he was only beaten 12L by the mightily impressive Mad Max. As I say improvement is sure to come after his hurdling debut and with the ground in his favour over Alderluck this is a perfect opportunity to get a win under his belt. Selection Rating: () Taunton: 13-30 Hurdle – This looks to be set up for Qozak to get his first win over hurdles and the only thing that could possible cause him trouble was stablemate Nictory Vote, but he has been withdrawn paving the way for an easy success. Won a couple of bumpers over in France and looked pretty handy on his hurdling debut being beaten by just a short head to the pretty impressive Cracboumwiz who has gone on to finish second off of 127 so if that is to go by he should cruise this as nearest rival is rated 103. Soft ground should be no problem and this is a banker. Selection Rating: () 14-30 Hurdle – Another setup for a Nicholls horse and this time it’s Inchidaly Rock who showed real promise on his debut at Exeter but then ran poorly lto into 2nd when 2/7f. He goes really well on heavy ground and surely that ran was a 1 off as he looked out of sorts. If he returns to his standard that he showed at Exeter then he is sure to win this, not the most attractive off odds based on his run lto but I think everyone knows that that was a fluke. Will probably enjoy the step up in trip as he ran at this distance over in France and had pretty decent success. Selection Rating: () Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted January 27, 2009 Author Share Posted January 27, 2009 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 27/01/2009 Folkestone: 13-50 Hurdle – Den of Iniquity– 5/2 Various - (10pts Win) 14-50 Hurdle – The Old Pretender –13/8 Sporting Bet - (10pts Win) Taunton: 13-30 Hurdle – Quzak – 1/4 Various – (10pts Win) 14-30 Hurdle – Inchidaly Rock – 2/5 Blue Sq & 888 Sport – (10pts Win) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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