Fintron's Lays

[fintron]

I've been contemplating starting my own lay thread for some time but the thought of laying winners and losing more than my stake was something that put me off. I want to openly trial my method for a while though and if I manage to avoid big losses then I will look to hit the pink button on Betfair. Bet 1: 2.30 Windsor - Tubby Isaacs He won well at Kempton last time out from a bad draw but I think he may be foiled in his bid for the hat-trick now he is up 7 lbs and up in grade. His last win came in a class 6 handicap, as was his previous victory at Lingfield, and today he is upped to class 5 level. In his Kempton win the horses immediately behind were rated 57, 55, 58 and 54. All have been contesting low grade handicaps and none have won since, so its clear he hasn't beaten much of late as the same can be said of the form of his Lingfield win. There may well be more to come from him as he's young and improving but he could have been found an easier opportunity to open his account on turf. In this field of 16, half a dozen have strong claims and he is up against horses rated in the 70's here who will be more of a match for him. When he last ran on turf at Sandown, he flopped. Personally, I would be wanting 9/2 or more to back this fella, and he is 3/1 at present. 1 pt lay. :hope

[cc75]

Re: Fintron's Lays First one in Fintron - very nicely done. :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

First one in Fintron - very nicely done. :clap

Cheers cc75

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's Lays Good luck fin..........good start ! I was toying with having a months 'laying' for BBotD.........but the first one went and won at 3/1 and that put me off !!........:lol:lol

[TheRat]

Re: Fintron's Lays Good luck Fin and good start

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Fintron's Lays Good start and the very best of luck:ok

[JackJarvis]

Re: Fintron's Lays Good start mate, all the best with it.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Thanks for your comments guys, much appreciated. Bet 2: 7.50 Great Leighs - Blue Jet Blue Jet is the tissue favourite for this race and is around 5/1 on Betfair and 10/3 on WBX at the minute, and at those prices I'm more tempted to lay than back. He won a seller last time out at Haydock in a better grade than this but the fact remains it was still only a seller. The 2nd was only rated 53, the 3rd was rated 62 and the 4th was rated 58. None had won a handicap this season which probably explains why they were in a seller in the first place. He carries a 6 lb penalty as a result of that win which I don't like as it is not a true reflection of how much he has improved and he looks to have more on his plate now he's stepping back in a handicap against stronger looking horses. He has never ran on the polytrack before so we take his ability to handle the surface on trust, but even on turf he hasn't yet won a handicap. The closest he came as a 1.5 length 3rd at Newcastle last year, this year he's been running of marks of between 46 and 56 at the basement levels and had little joy. In this field of 16, the runners that I feel have stronger claims are Borrowdale, who has coped well since being stepped up to two miles by Jamie Osbourne, and Miss Serena. Borrowdale has ran solid races in handicaps of late off 61 and 64 at Kempton yet is eased down to 57 here. Another lively danger could be Miss Serena who is lightly raced and won over this trip at Kempton LTO. She remains on the same mark here and her win came in a handicap. So the suggested bet is a 1 pt lay on Blue Jet at 6.0. :hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 3: Folkestone 4.50 - Haajes Stuart Parr's gelding his opened up at 11/10 this morning which set alarm bells ringing with me given that this is a handicap race. Only yesterday we saw beaten short-price handicap favourites in the shape of Bouvardia at 6/4 and Cheviot at 8/11. The positives for Haajes are that he has recent winning form and races in a small field and so the number of possible winners is obviously reduced. He also won't mind the conditions. However, I think there are plenty of negatives against him too in addition to the poor value price. Firstly, his wins have come at lower levels than this so he must find quite a bit of improvement stepping up in grade here. LTO he won a class 5 handicap with the 2nd and 3rd rated 61 and 63. His other recent win came at class 4 level when he had rivals rated 73 and 75 behind. Today he steps up to class 3 level and faces the likes of The Jobber, rated 86 and Mango Music rated 82. It also needs noting that he is turned out only 3 days after his last run, which I don't like, because there is no guarantee he has fully recovered. His wins in the past have come when he has been rested for a week at the very least, and when he was turned out quickly in September last year he flopped. The best horse to back in this race IMO is Mango Music as she has won with cut in the ground in the past and has ran into some fair types of late in Angus Newz and Persian Sea. The Jobber is dangerous because although inconsistent, he showed at Yarmouth last won he does still have wins in him. Regal Royale will relish any cut in the ground and warrants respect too as a recent CD winner. So all in all I'm happy to have 5 of the 6 on my side here and suggest laying Haajes to 1 pt at 11/10.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Bet 3: Folkestone 4.50 - Haajes Stuart Parr's gelding his opened up at 11/10 this morning which set alarm bells ringing with me given that this is a handicap race. Only yesterday we saw beaten short-price handicap favourites in the shape of Bouvardia at 6/4 and Cheviot at 8/11. The positives for Haajes are that he has recent winning form and races in a small field and so the number of possible winners is obviously reduced. He also won't mind the conditions. However, I think there are plenty of negatives against him too in addition to the poor value price. Firstly, his wins have come at lower levels than this so he must find quite a bit of improvement stepping up in grade here. LTO he won a class 5 handicap with the 2nd and 3rd rated 61 and 63. His other recent win came at class 4 level when he had rivals rated 73 and 75 behind. Today he steps up to class 3 level and faces the likes of The Jobber, rated 86 and Mango Music rated 82. It also needs noting that he is turned out only 3 days after his last run, which I don't like, because there is no guarantee he has fully recovered. His wins in the past have come when he has been rested for a week at the very least, and when he was turned out quickly in September last year he flopped. The best horse to back in this race IMO is Mango Music as she has won with cut in the ground in the past and has ran into some fair types of late in Angus Newz and Persian Sea. The Jobber is dangerous because although inconsistent, he showed at Yarmouth last won he does still have wins in him. Regal Royale will relish any cut in the ground and warrants respect too as a recent CD winner. So all in all I'm happy to have 5 of the 6 on my side here and suggest laying Haajes to 1 pt at 11/10.

:wall Apologies if anyone took the advice and laid it. I think I'll avoid the laying for a bit now.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 4: 5.50 Kempton - Smokey Rider - lay The withdrawl of Catman means there are nine runners left in this 5 furlong claimer. Two two that appeal at the weights are the Magic of Rio and Glamorous Spirit. If The Magic of Rio was better drawn I would even suggest backing him, as he's top rated and brings some good form, including from on the all-weather, into the race. However, he comes from stall 3 tonight, which isn't ideal for one that likes to race prominently. Smokey Rider was the tissue fav for this race and although the bookies now make him second in the betting, I think he is still short enough to lay at his present price. He too likes to race prominently but is also drawn low, which will not suit his running style. If either of those two with a low draw was to win I would make it the Magic of Rio, seeing as he would be giving away an extra 11 lbs to Smokey Rider if this was a handicap. Glamorous Spirit is running off the same weight he would be doing if this was a handicap, and bearing in mind he's been running in better races than this and has a better draw than the other pair, I think he too is capable of getting involved. All in all, I'm happy to have The Magic of Rio, Glamorous Spirit and the rest of the field on my side and oppose Smokey Rider, 1 pt lay at 3/1.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays It seems Smokey Rider has now been withdrawn.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 4: 8.50 Kempton - Mister Ross - Lay The best race of the night at Kempton and quite a few have chances. The market makes Mister Ross the 3.85 favourite on Betfair, but I think he is worth opposing at that price. Whilst he comes into the race in good heart and is searching for the hat-trick, this is a much tougher assignment than either of his previous two races. Admittedly, Gary Moore's Medicean gelding is open to further improvement but the fact remains he is now 9 lbs higher than his last win and both of his last two successes have come on 0-70 company. Today, he runs in a 0-90 race so I think the combination of a lofty hike in the weights and a better class of opposition can find him out. In his favour he does have a high draw which is important here, but I think the real danger to him is Swift Gift, who was talked up ahead of his run at Lingfield on Saturday and is also well drawn. Swift Gift has been running in much better races than this and has been rubbing shoulders with rivals rated in their 90's so will definately appreciate the drop down into a race where he carries one of the top weights and is a big fish in a small pond if you like, rather than on Saturday when he was up against Atlantic Story et al and was running off bottom weight. Orpenindeed's confidence may have been boosted after a win in a claimer recently and he ranks as one of the dangers, along with Dingaan who ran well here in this grade recently. Bellomi, who goes for a new trainer but has ran with credit in tougher races than this on turf, is also in with a slight chance. Suggested bet is 1 pt lay on Mister Ross at 3.85 Betfair.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Mister Ross was found out last night and unplaced to get things back on track. Bet 5: 8.50 Wolverhampton - Bavarian Nordic- lay Ann Duffield's colt is looking for the four timer here but tonights race is much different from those which he has been winning. Firstly, all of his form has been on a slower surface and his recent revival has been over longer trips than this. Secondly, he steps up in class and is now 6 lbs above his last mark. With those uncertainties I'd rather have the likes of Just Bond and Folio on my side. Just Bond has an impressive record here and ran well for Duran Fentiman last time out when staying on to take fourth behind Suits Me. Folio is well handicapped on the pick of his form and put in a decent second behind Awatuki last time out at Great Leighs. That pair are more certain to get this trip and handle the surface so I'm happy to lay Bavarian Nordic to 1 pt at 6.2 WBX 9.20 Wolverhampton - Megalo Maniac - lay Richard Fahey's gelding won a couple of handicaps at Southwell recently and ran well on a faster surface at Kempton last time out when narrowly behind Piccolo Diamante. However, he likes to race prominently and so his position in stall 12 will not be a great help and Tony Hamilton and Paul Hanagan are replaced in the saddle by Brian McHugh to suggest connections feel he is over-weighted - he's now 9 lbs above his last winning mark. Sion Hill is drawn low and should take them along at a good pace so Megalo Maniac must break well. Even if he does, he'll be wasting energy early doors in the process and would be vulnerable to a late finisher, such as Guildernstern, who looks well weighted on the pick of his form and hasn't been a million miles away of late. Piccolo Diamante, his conqueror last time, is only 3 lbs higher than his last win and emerges as another lively danger. 1 pt lay 6.6 WBX.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 7: 1.50 Southwell - Kinigi - lay I backed Kinigi when she won a claimer here last month but that race looked poor and she has more on her plate stepping back up into a handicap here. She did win a nursery under Jamie Spencer last month off 56, but is 9 lbs higher here before Andrea Atzeni's 5 lb claim is accounted for. She was only a short head infront of Le Petit Vigier in that handicap win but that rival is 7 lbs better off at todays weights and could easily reverse that form. Other live dangers could be Rio Cobolo, who steps up in trip but has been effective on a slow surface, and Captain Kallis, Top Flight Splash and Miss Xu Xia all won at the course last time out (admittedly none were in handicaps but neither was Kinigi's LTO win) and will be hopeful of their chances. laid at 7.0 (Betfair) to win 1 pt. Bet 8: 2.50 Southwell - Orpenella - lay I was at Southwell the day she finished 4th to Smarty Socks and she never looked like winning. She's down 3 lbs here but remains a maiden and Kevin Ryan applies cheekpieces in a desperate attempt to bring about some improvement. She may struggle to see out this trip and there are plenty of others with stronger looking claims. Solicitude was 2 lengths behind Mrs Bun over CD recently and went even closer off her current mark of 55 last time out at Kempton. Blue Charm is a model of consistency and can go close off this mark if handling the surface. Isabella's Fancy won a maiden over CD last time out and the second and third have boosted that form since. Bettera's Bertie split Mrs Bun and Solicitude last time out and is another than can go well off only 3 lbs higher. laid at 5.9 (Betfair) to win 1 pt Bet 9: 2.30 Lingfield - Dicey Affair - lay Has acheived very little to date in maidens and although making her handicap debut her rating of 68 is meaningless given the lack of strong formlines in her maiden runs. She was trounced on her debut at Folkestone but like all newcomers her first run can often be forgiven. However, next time out at Newbury she was soundly beaten and of the horses around her the 6th was well beaten off 60 in a handicap since, 5th done nothing in two maidens, 4th well beaten in a maiden, winner well beaten NTO (although was in listed race). She raced over 7f here last time and again, none of the horses in that race have won since. She's never looked like winning in those two races, so the form credentials of some of these other rivals look much stronger. I backed Colangnik last time and she's getting better with every run and acts on polytrack. Clerk's Choice was beaten by only a neck on his handicap debut at Leicteser last time and so he too looks to have stronger form claims. laid at 4.8 (Betfair) to win 1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 10: 8.20 Kempton - Silver Regent - lay Silver Regent is third in the betting at 5/1 for this class 4 handicap over a mile and a half but I would personally say Cape Colony and Bushy Dell, as well as the two market leaders, all look more likely to score than Amanda Perrett's horse. Silver Regent showed some good maiden form as a two year old but his efforts this year have failed to match that early promise. He is yet to win outside of maiden company and although his mark is dropping, he hasn't done enough of late to warrant a back bet here. His best form has come over a mile and he's been well beaten when stepped up in trip on his last three starts so he may be best watched as he embarks even further into unknown territory with the step up to a mile and a half. Live dangers are numerous in this race. Bushy Dell has previous course form and is proven to stay. Only 3 lbs higher than his last winning mark he looks to have a chance whilst Cape Colony is a course and distance winner from the Richard Hannon yard that is still open to further improvement. Graylyn Ruby is a CD winner racing off a mark only 5 lbs higher than its last win and is another that looks to have a good chance and then there is the market leader, Wine 'n Dine, who represents Gary Moore and looks very interesting on his handicap debut. The form of his debut 4th at Newmarket looks very solid. He was behind General Elliott, who won a conditions race rated 93 NTO, 2nd won a h'cap off 86 since, 5th has won a handicap off 74 and later a decent Ascot race off 87. He begins handicapping off 72 and could start the beginning of a winning sequence tonight. laid at 6.2 (Betfair) to win 1 pt.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 11: 8.50 Kempton - Interactive - lay Andrew Turnell's gelding remains a maiden after 17 starts and his BHA rating is due to drop 2 lbs in the future so it is questionable whether he is up to the task of winning this race off 67. He ran off this mark, in this grade, at Lingfield last time out and finished back in 5th. There are more interesting runners in this line up, most notably Our Blessing, who drops back in trip and could go very well from a favourable draw. Darren Williams' mount won over CD in October after making virtually all, and he may have had excuses since as he's been running over longer trips which may not suit and he would not have liked the way the race was run here on Sunday. He's 5 lbs above his last winning mark but has won off much higher in the past and could take some pegging back if getting an easy lead. Hart of Gold is another that can go well. A course and distance winner last month he too is drawn well to suit his style of racing and he too has won off much higher marks than this in the past and could easily cope with a 5 lb rise. Shakespeare's son will not mind his low draw as he looks to come from off the pace and he has been running incredibly consistently of late. He's 9 lbs higher than his last win but goes well in this grade and could be a major player. Musical Script looks to have a chance too for Mouse Hamilton-Fairley. He's versatile with regards to tactics as he won both racing prominently and being held up when notching up a quick double here last month. He is up in grade but is only 3 lbs higher than his last win and the booking of sand king Neil Callan is another positive. Gwilyn runs for Hayley Turner and is back down to a winning mark. His wins are thin on the ground but he ran a fair second to Welcome Approach at Wolverhampton recently off just 1 lb lower, and cannot be discounted. All in all, I'd rather have all of those runners on my side and oppose the favourite, Interactive. laid at 7.4 (Betfair) to win 1 pt.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Results Update I'm calculating P/L to advised stakes but also including SP's for my own future reference. 5 % commission deducted from all winnings. Tubby Isaacs - Adv 4.0, Placing: 5/16, SP 7/2, +0.95 Blue Jet - Adv 6.0, 2/16, SP 11/2, +0.95 Haajes - Adv 2.1, 1/6, SP 5/4, -1.1 Mister Ross - Adv 3.85, 9/12, SP 15/8, +0.95 Bavarian Nordic - Adv 6.2, 6/7, SP 6/1, +0.95 Megalo Maniac - Adv 6.6, 5/12, SP 9/2 +0.95 Kinigi - Adv 7.0, 5/14, SP 7/1, +0.95 Orpenella - Adv 5.9, 2/14, SP 8/1, +0.95 Dicey Affair - Adv 4.8, 4/6, SP 8/1, +0.95 Silver Regent - Adv 6.2, 5/7, SP 7/2, +0.95 Interactive - Adv 7.4, 8/9, SP 10/1 +0.95 Stats Strike Rate: 10/11 (91 %) P/L: + 8.4 Biggest priced loser: 2.1 (Haajes 7/10/08) Lowest priced winner: 4.0 (Tubby Isaacs 29/9/08)

[NMc106]

Re: Fintron's Lays Hi fin, I have never really understood laying really. My understanding of Laying: If the odds for a lay were say 5.0 (4/1) and I bet £10, am I right in thinking that my liability is £40 and my potential winnings is my stake (£10). If this is the case why don't people simply lay a football team in the Uefa cup for example not to win at odds of say 200.00. Just read through this and I take it people can't do that because if the odds were say 200.00, for them to win £50 they would have to deposit £10,000 to cover the potential liability before they could place the bet and most people don't have that amount kicking about to win £50!? I have probably answered my own questions in this same post but I always seem to try to work it out in my head and fail miserably.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

If the odds for a lay were say 5.0 (4/1) and I bet £10' date=' am I right in thinking that my liability is £40 and my potential winnings is my stake (£10). [/quote'] Yeah, thats right. I've only just started laying myself, and have been laying all my horses off to win just £2 whilst i get a feel for it. The odds have generally been around 6.0 (5/1-7/1 ish) so my liability on each bet has been about a maximum of £10-£14. I want to keep liabilities as low as possible for the time being until I build up my betting bank. But like you say, if you were to lay a football team off at 200.00 to win a £50 stake off a backer then yes, you would need £10k in your betfair account to cover incase the team won and you lost your bet. Seems crazy to us small stakes punters, but there are people out there that will gladly do such a thing. I put up a 'back' bet on the Grand National last year requesting odds of 400/1 for a horse that was much, much shorter than that with the bookies and requested a £2 stake. Somebody was prepared to lay this horse at those odds, matched my bet, risking £800 of their own money just to take my £2. Risky business indeed and you hear all the time of people laying horses at large odds in running then they think they are beaten, a speculative punter comes along and matches the bet at the long odds, the horse miraculously wins, and the layer is severely out of pocket. The main attraction of laying is that you can use it as a means of giving yourself a free bet, following the principle, "back high, lay low". Basically you back a horse at long odds of say 20/1, but nearer the time to the race the odds have been cut to 5/1 on the exchange. You can then lay that same horse off at the lower odds, to win the value of the stake you placed at 20/1. You are effectively giving yourself a free bet on the horse at 15/1. However, I wouldn't recommend any beginners start laying until they have read up on it fully and are fully aware of all the risks. The one thing I don't know myself is whether you would need to deposit more funds into your account in this case. I have a question actually I'd like to know the answer of..........Say you backed Blackburn to win the Premiership at 200/1 to a £100 stake, could you then lay them off at say 10/1 to win £100 without depositing a further £100 into your account? Does Betfair, 'detect' that if Blackburn win you will be winning money anyway and that the lay liability can be paid out of your back winnings? I sometimes lay when I have placed doubles. I recently had a £10 double on two horses at 6/1 and evens. The first horse won so I knew if the evens shot won I would win £140 for the double. If the second horse lost, I would win nothing, so I laid the second horse off at evens. I did win the double, so had to pay £10 to somebody, but I still made a 130 quid profit and had covered my stake if the horse had lost and my profit/loss from the bet would have been 0.

[NMc106]

Re: Fintron's Lays Cheers for that mate. It all seems a tad risky to me and I'll probably leave it alone for the time being! Good luck with this Fin :)

[happygooner]

Re: Fintron's Lays

The one thing I don't know myself is whether you would need to deposit more funds into your account in this case. I have a question actually I'd like to know the answer of..........Say you backed Blackburn to win the Premiership at 200/1 to a £100 stake, could you then lay them off at say 10/1 to win £100 without depositing a further £100 into your account? Does Betfair, 'detect' that if Blackburn win you will be winning money anyway and that the lay liability can be paid out of your back winnings?

Yes, as you are just hedging the original bet you don't need to have more money in there. It's the basis of trading a full bank. I keep getting burnt laying then finding something new to look at. I go back and have a GREAT couple of days only to get badly burnt again. I would never advise against it as it's obvious to me that the potential is HUGE (I have won more in a single day from laying than with anything else).......BUT the potential to lose BIG is also looming. I have without question lost more laying turkeys than backing fancied horses. Be fully aware of the pitfalls before venturing in or beware the consequences...:(

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Yes, as you are just hedging the original bet you don't need to have more money in there. It's the basis of trading a full bank. I keep getting burnt laying then finding something new to look at. I go back and have a GREAT couple of days only to get badly burnt again. I would never advise against it as it's obvious to me that the potential is HUGE (I have won more in a single day from laying than with anything else).......BUT the potential to lose BIG is also looming. I have without question lost more laying turkeys than backing fancied horses. Be fully aware of the pitfalls before venturing in or beware the consequences...:(

OK, thanks for that happygooner, I usually back with bookies and then lay with betfair so it was always something I wanted to know. Do you have an upper price limit on the horses you lay? I suppose it is still similar to backing as if you regularly back 5/1 shots you need 1 in every 4 to win, whereas if you are laying 5/1 shots you can afford only 1 loser for every 5 bets to keep your head above water. Providing your strike rate is appropriate you can stay ahead. Getting burned is always a worry I suppose but you've got to build your betting bank up with enough winners to cover such days haven't you. I'm sure there is winner lurking around the corner for my thread but I'm happy with how things are going since I picked it back up last week.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 12: 8.50 Great Leighs - Alimarr - lay I don't fancy this Alimarr at all. She's been given an offical rating of 70 so looks best in at the weights but that rating appears to have been allotted because of trainer reputation rather than racecourse achievements. The form of her maidens looks weak and none of the form has been boosted with subsequent winners. Shadow Bay has the ability to go well at this level but stall 13 is rather offputting for a prominent front runners but Captain Cavandish could emerge as an unlikely winner. Alan Bailey's gelding has previously won on the polytrack at Wolverhampton in a seller but ran a good second behind Hold the Buck's in a handicap at the same course last time. He is lighly raced and there could still be more improvement to come. He raced prominently last time, and stall 7 isn't too bad in that respect, but his previous win came from off the pace and so he looks versatile tactics wise. Laid Alimarr at 3.05 (Betfair) to win 1 pt.

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's Lays Nice lay Fin, Unplaced.

[happygooner]

Re: Fintron's Lays

OK, thanks for that happygooner, I usually back with bookies and then lay with betfair so it was always something I wanted to know. Do you have an upper price limit on the horses you lay? I suppose it is still similar to backing as if you regularly back 5/1 shots you need 1 in every 4 to win, whereas if you are laying 5/1 shots you can afford only 1 loser for every 5 bets to keep your head above water. Providing your strike rate is appropriate you can stay ahead. Getting burned is always a worry I suppose but you've got to build your betting bank up with enough winners to cover such days haven't you. I'm sure there is winner lurking around the corner for my thread but I'm happy with how things are going since I picked it back up last week.

I try to stay within 11.00-11.50 max as already demonstrated by the marvelous £3000-£100,000 thread on the internet. And if you haven't read that thread I strongly suggest you do so as it's quite an incredible achievement. Google maria laying horses and all will become clear. Having said that I just stumble from one pitfall to the next at the moment. I am wholly convinced though that with a little more discipline it's the way to go....

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

I try to stay within 11.00-11.50 max as already demonstrated by the marvelous £3000-£100,000 thread on the internet. And if you haven't read that thread I strongly suggest you do so as it's quite an incredible achievement. Google maria laying horses and all will become clear.

Wow. Great achievement. :clap I'm not gonna be laying horses with a liability of several hundred though, my betting bank is only around £30 or so, but I may look to increase stakes too as my betting bank grows in the future. I see you placed over 4,500 bets to reach your target, that must have required a lot of patience. I've got a bit of catching up to do with just 12 horses laid so far!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Nice lay Fin' date=' Unplaced.[/quote'] Cheers mate. It got absolutely smashed and was sent off 11/8. I can't understand why, its form was dire. I wouldn't have touched that at 10/1!

[happygooner]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Wow. Great achievement. :clap I'm not gonna be laying horses with a liability of several hundred though, my betting bank is only around £30 or so, but I may look to increase stakes too as my betting bank grows in the future. I see you placed over 4,500 bets to reach your target, that must have required a lot of patience. I've got a bit of catching up to do with just 12 horses laid so far!

You have the wrong end of the stick mate....I'm not maria. Just something I aspire to:lol My betting bank is about £35.00 at the mo after I lost around £200 on the horses over this last couple of weeks:$

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Bet 13: 3.00 Lingfield - I Confess - lay David Evans' gelding was a fair second last time out but like all of his best form, it has come at plating level and his efforts in handicaps leave a bit to be desired. This bottom-weighted animal has won just once in 21 career starts, and that came in a seller. He raced in this grade at Wolverhampton recently off 68 and was beaten by 4 and a half lengths, so even running off 67 here I don't fancy him for this handicap. The main runners in this race could be Carmanero and Ffiedom. The former has a low win rate but is at least proven in the grade and is only 2 lbs higher than his highest winning mark. He ran a decent second behind an improving Internationaldebut last time out (had Ffiedom behind) and even though he's up 2 lbs, he looks to have a solid chance. Ffiefdom was a dual CD winner a few runs ago. He's only 2 lbs higher than his last win, but drops down in grade here as both of those wins came at class 4 level. As top weight he warrants respect and in my opinion will take all of the beating. Danish Art is well weighted on the pick of his form and would have claims if having a good day, whilst Cornus ran well in competitive Doncaster apprentices handicap last time and is another that will fancy his chances. All in all, I'd like to have the aforementioned proven handicappers on my side and suggest laying I Confess at 7.8 (Betfair) to win 1 pt. Bet 14: 6.50 Wolverhampton - Sir Liam - lay Sir Liam is second favourite for this apprentices race but I think he should be much bigger than 7/2. Tom Dascombe's gelding's sole win came in a maiden and he's not won in 18 runs since. His last run was in a seller so is nothing to write home about, and he's been beaten off marks around 55-57 is low grade handicaps recently. He runs off 53 here but has questions to answer. Climate was backed off the boards last time and is very well handicapped even under a penalty on the pick of his last form. With Andrea Atzeni on board, he has the best jockey in the race and his past profile suggests he is good for a follow up. Salerosa must prove herself on this faster ground but at least she arrives in good form, and bids for the hat-trick here. She won an apprentices race last time and running off the same mark here she needs keeping onside on the offchance. Stark Contrast is only 2 lbs higher than when winning a class 5 handicap two runs ago, and this race looks much easier. He's got proven course form and the trip should be fine, and he too looks to have decent claims. Bailebrough is very well treated on the pick of his form and although not the most reliable, this is an apprentices race, and an outsider could easily take the prize. Sir Liam laid at 4.7 (Betfair) to win 1 pt.