Fintron's Lays

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays whoops, didn't mean to submit that post just yet. 8.55 Musselburgh Laid Carpe Diem at 4.7 to backers stake 2.00 Tylicki is riding out his claim fast and I am a fan, however, his mount here is tenth in the handicap out of 13 runners, and although dropping in grade, has failed to win at thisl level previously so laying. 9.25 Mussleburgh Laid Battimore at 3.45 to backers stake 3.00 Bottom weight here in a field of 14 runners so may be outclassed. Brought over from Ireland for only second handicap start, but remains to be seen whether that form will hold up over here and hoping one of the home boys can ensure a miserable return back across the Irish Sea. Dancing Jest may become a selection in the 9.10 at Windsor but at the minute the odds (14.0) are too high for me to warrant a lay. Will play if he comes into 11.0.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays just to make it clear, no bet in the 9.10, although Dancing Jest has come in its because of the NR's rather than plenty of support, so ducking that race.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays I thought everything was gonna blow up today when Major Phil went in at Wolverhampton...but thankfully the ones on the night were all well beaten and a little bit of profit is carried over for tomorrow. Bank at start of today: 73.63 pts todays results (after commission) Strike Force - btn at 7.12, +0.91 Major Phil - won at 5.40, -7.35 Racing Hero - btn at 1.88, +7.94 Carpe Diem - btn at 4.70, +1.90 Battimore - btn at 3.45, +2.85 Profit/loss on day: +6.25 pts Tomorrow's starting bank: 79.88 pts

[TheSaint]

Re: Fintron's Lays Well done. I think many (including me) had Major Phil down as a lay; alas sometimes they let you down and go in and win! :@

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Well done. I think many (including me) had Major Phil down as a lay; alas sometimes they let you down and go in and win! :@

So annoying because of yesterdays favs he looked one of the weakest for sure didn't he?! Five for today. 2.30 Brighton Laid Itsher at 5.50 to backers stake 1.77 A consistent horse but always seems to find one too good, even if Carson is on top. In this big field sprint, a similar story could emerge today. 3.45 Hamilton Laid Stateside 4.3 to backers stake 2.42 Raised in grade from last win, also has a rise in the weights to deal with. In this better company, may find a couple too good. 6.30 Thirsk Laid Terenzium 5.5 to backers stake 5.77 Risen in the weights even in defeat and in this large field race, lacking quality, isn't one to be taking a short price about. 7.30 Thirsk Laid Violent Velocity 2.42 to backers stake 5.62 Was backed off the boards for an apprentices race on Sunday but this is tougher and I feel he is a good value lay. Pickering looks the main danger at a price now up in trip and down in grade. 9.00 Thirsk Laid Crimea 2.7 to backers stake 4.69 Untried in handicaps as of yet so remains to be seen whether mark is useful or not. Fair play if it wins, but five others rated higher and may prove too good.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays I made a mistake earlier. I said above I'd laid Terenzium to backers stake of 5.77 but meant to type 1.77 - as stated before my liability on each bet is 10 % of my bank. i.e. 7.98 pts per bet for today. As it happened it lost, but thought I'd clear it up. There were, however, some NR's in Itshims race which shortened the odds and I lost 5.96 in that race instead of the full liability. Will do a full breakdown for the day when the other two have ran.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays A poor day today and two losers recorded on the bounce for the first time and things were looking a little shaky. Really hoping for a clean day of wins tomorrow to try make some inroads again. Bank at start of today: 79.88 pts todays results: Isther -5.96 (odds were cut to 4.37 after the NRs) Stateside -6.51 (odds cut to 3.69 after NR) Terenzium +1.68 Violent Velocity +5.34 Crimea +4.26 Profit/loss on day: -1.19 pts Tomorrows starting bank: 78.69 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Starting Bank today: 78.69 pts, Max liability per bet today: 7.87 pts 4.00 Catterick Maison Dieu - laid 1.36 at odds of 6.8 Won last time out for Eric Alston but raised in grade for this and may find few others too good. 5.00 Catterick Dimashq - laid 1.15 at odds of 7.8 Won a ladies race last time out but in a normal handicap here which will be tougher. Also has a 4 lb rise to overcome. 7.50 Kempton Emirates Sports - laid 3.21 at odds of 3.45 Has a lenghy break to overcome for Godolphin on his handicap debut here, willing to lay at the price with fitness taken on trust and no previous run in handicaps. 9.10 Chepstow Just Jimmy - laid 1.45 at odds of 6.2 Raised in the handicap even in defeat and bottom weight for this 16 runner handicap, so may find a couple higher rated rivals too strong.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays A disappointing day with the Dogolphin handicapper returning from a break and justifying a late gamble. The other three lays were successful but the odds too high to really recover the deficity this time. Unlike the last two days, I would have been better off laying to fixed stakes today. Opening bank for day 78.69 pts Maison Dieu +1.29 Dimashq +1.09 Emirates Sports -7.86 Just Jimmy +1.38 Loss on day: -4.1 Bank for tomorrow: 74.59

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Starting bank for day: 74.59 Max liability for day: 7.46 3.10 Haydock Laid No Grouse at 11.0 to backers stake 0.76 Fared well enough at Nottingham last time out but raised in grade sharply and may bump into a few others too strong.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Starting Bank for day: +74.59 No Grouse +0.72 New bank for tomorrow: 75.31

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays starting bank for today 75.31 max liability per bet today 7.53 2.30 Doncaster Laid Spirit of Adjisa at 12.5 to backers stake 0.65. Was well held in an apprentices race last time out and although was closer to the winner on run prior to that, that run came in a lower grade. 4.10 Doncaster Laid Crime Writer at 5.2 to backers stake 1.79 Makes handicap debut here in fairly strong company and others may be older and stronger. Is bottom weight, may find a few from the top of the handicap too good. 4.20 Warwick Laid Hand Painted at 6.4 to backers stake 1.39 Has been in good form and dealt a modest rise but also raised in grade and the Aussie combo could land this with the unexposed newcomer. 6.20 Beverley Laid Dark Ranger at 4.1 to backers stake 2.42 Bottom rated in this handicap and may find one from further up in the weights too strong. 7.55 Beverley Laid Cotswolds at 3.6 to backers stake 2.89 Has been well held on all starts in handicaps and looks plenty short enough to me. 8.15 Haydock Laid Snow Dancer at 11.0 to backers stake 0.75 Has risen in the handicap even in defeat and not sure if this step up in trip is ideal. Also low down in the weights.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays One more to add for tonight. 9.20 Haydock Laid Bollin Judith at 3.8 to backers stake 2.68 Won lto at Redcar but on top of rise in handicap is stepped up in class. Other better rated horses in the race may prove too strong. May add a couple of others later but at the minute they are too big to justify laying IMO.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays yesterdays results: Starting bank: 75.31 Spirit of Adjisa +0.62 Crime Writer +1.70 Hand Painted +1.32 Dark Ranger +2.3 Cotswolds -6.39 (NR's contracted the odds and thus my liability) Snow Dancer +0.71 Bollin Judith +2.55 Profit loss on day: +2.81 New bank: 78.12

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Starting bank for day: 78.12 pts Max liability per bet for today: 7.81 pts 3.30 Haydock Laid Merlin at 13.5 to backers stake 0.62 Dead heated with Empowered at Chester and although went in again nto, this latest class rise may be one too many. 4.35 Haydock Laid Zuzu at 6.2 to backers stake 1.50 Unproven in handicaps yet, may prefter softer ground than gets today. 5.45 Haydock Laid Gassin at 4.9 to backers stake 2.00 Ridden by Jamie Spencer, won his maiden on softer ground and unproven in handicaps to date. 3.35 Leicester Laid Visite Royale at 9.2 to backers stake 0.95 Makes handicap debut in a tough fillies race here. Luck Will Come looks to have a chance at a price and a few others have outside claims at prices. One of the lower rated horses here so laying.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays A losing day yesterday. One of my favourite yards supplying the deadly bullet, will prob shirk the Cox yard for laying purposes in future. Yestersday starting Bank: 78.12 pts Red Merlin -7.32 Zuzu +1.42 Gassin +1.90 Visite Royale +0.90 profit for day: -3.1 New bank: 75.02

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Starting bank for day: 75.02 Max liab per bet today: 7.50 pts 2.10 Ayr Laid Pedregal at 6.8 to backers stake 1.29 Low down in handicap, has struggled to get head infront of late. 3.10 Ayr Laid Apache Nation at 8.2 to backers stake 1.04 Low down in handicap and may want softer going. 3.40 Ayr Laid Catskill at 4.8 to backers stake 1.97 Tough race here and plenty from the head of the weights may outclass, especially the dropped in grade Herrera who has Fredi taking off 3 lbs. 4.10 Ayr Laid Tom Tower at 2.86 to backers stake 4.03 Allowed to dominate in small field last time out, may struggle to do so in larger field here.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Thats more like it, an excellent day at Ayr and things are getting back on track nicely. The 80 pt barrier broken for the first time too (started 2009 with a 50 pt bank). :) Starting Bank today: 75.02 pts Pedregal +1.23 Apache Nation +0.99 Catskill +1.87 Tom Tower +3.83 Profit on day: +7.92 New bank: 82.94

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Overall figures (2009): Suprise Pension BEATEN +0.95 Strike Force - BEATEN +0.91 Major Phil - WON -7.35 Racing Hero - BEATEN +7.94 Carpe Diem - BEATEN +1.90 Battimore - BEATEN +2.85 Isther WON -5.96 Stateside WON -6.51 Terenzium BEATEN +1.68 19.04 Violent Velocity BEATEN +5.34 Crimea BEATEN +4.26 Maison Dieu BEATEN +1.29 Dimashq BEATEN +1.09 Emirates Sports WON -7.86 Just Jimmy BEATEN +1.38 No Grouse BEATEN +0.72 Spirit of Adjisa BEATEN +0.62 Crime Writer BEATEN +1.70 Hand Painted BEATEN +1.32 Dark Ranger BEATEN +2.3 Cotswolds WON -6.39 Snow Dancer BEATEN +0.71 25.52 Bollin Judith BEATEN +2.55 Red Merlin WON -7.32 Zuzu BEATEN +1.42 Gassin BEATEN +1.90 Visite Royale BEATEN +0.90 Pedregal BEATEN +1.23 Apache Nation BEATEN +0.99 Catskill BEATEN +1.87 Tom Tower BEATEN +3.83 Overall figures (2009) No. of lays: 66 Strike Rate: 57/66 = 86 % Profit/loss (-5 % comm): +32.89 Overall bank: +82.89 Somewhere, at some point, an extra 0.05 pt has crept into the overall total, but has now been deleted from the 82.89 figure.

[BillyHills]

Re: Fintron's Lays Excellent effort Fin, have you looked back at the six that won to see if you could have avoided them at all, do they have any similarities? Keep it up mate!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Excellent effort Fin, have you looked back at the six that won to see if you could have avoided them at all, do they have any similarities? Keep it up mate!

Cheers. I think I should have avoided Emirates Sports. I often cite the fact a horse is making his handicap debut as a reason to back, yet used that as part of the rationale for laying that one. Perhaps I was wanting it to get beaten too much, just because it was Godolphin? I think Major Phil was a bit of a freak result, and I gather he caught plenty of other layers out that day. The pattern with the losers seems to be that their either won last time out or were only narrowly beaten last time out, but I'm not sure If I can take anything from that, as many of my lays are last time out winners and I like to lay horses that won lto in a lower grade, because I feel they are often falsely priced even if raised from class 6 to class 4 nto for example. I should have also ducked Red Merlin completely as I set my max odds limit in my head at 10/1 so quite why I broke that rule for a horse that comes from one of my favourite yards I will never know. I think by moving to fixed liability I have enhanced profits though, as that Red Merlin result would have wiped off over 10 pts if they'd been layed to level stakes. Still early days I suppose, but like you say, I need to look back for similarities with the losers. My suspicion at the minute is that the unexposed, especially handicap debutants, are the ones that may catch me out.

[DM99]

Re: Fintron's Lays Top results Fintron! Seems like a simple, logical system that will continue to provide horses at value lay prices. :)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Top results Fintron! Seems like a simple' date=' logical system that will continue to provide horses at value lay prices. :)[/quote'] Thanks, I need another clean round of winners today to make up for lost time as I feel as though I have been treading water for a while. Starting bank for day: +82.89 Max liab per bet today: 8.29 2.30 Brighton Laid Private Passion at 8.6 to backers stake 1.09 Looks better over 6f than 7f but racing from low down the weights and a classier, higher rated rival could do the business over him here. 3.00 Brighton Laid Kyle of Bute at 3.1 to backers stake 3.94 Ran well enough at this track but that was over further and even off the back of that run I'm not sure he deserves to be this short. More of a lay than a back at the price I feel. 4.00 Brighton Laid Albaasha at ave odds 3.96 to backers stake 2.81 Runners of the Barbados born bookiebasher Sir Michael Stoute always warrant respect, but I feel this is potentially a weak favourite from the yard that could be put in his place by Sixties Swinger or possibly Pyrus Time, a perennial bridesmaid up to now by now sent handicapping. 3.45 Musselburgh Secret Venue at 6.8 to backers stake 1.42 Goes for the hat-trick but previous two wins have been in lower grades. He takes a marked leaped in class, which may find him out from the bottom of the weights in better company.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Secret Venue's neck victory at Musselburgh prevents a clean sweep for the day and undoes the winning lays at Brighton. Can't win everyday I suppose. Nothing fits my system for tonight so the next bets will be tomorrow. Starting bank for today: 82.89 Private Passion +1.04 Kyle of Bute +3.74 Albaasha +2.67 Secret Venue -8.24 P/L on day: -0.79 New bank: 82.1

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Two for today...... 4.45 Wolverhampton Laid Red Cadeaux at 1.79 to backers stake 10.39 Looks the proverbial good thing at first glance, running under a pen after a comfy romp lto, but if there is a possible chink in his armour it is that he won a 3 yo only handicap last time, and today faces elders. La Rostra Nostra could go well for Swinburn, Baan is handicapped to have a chance from lower down in the weights but I make Ameeq the main danger returning to the AW after some success hurdling. He won off 113 at Uttoxeter last time out so is handicapped to have a chance off 71, and he has gone well on the AW before. 9.10 Southwell Laid Dazzling Begum at 10.5 to backers stake 0.86 Had plenty of chances now, may be outclassed by one higher up in the weights.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays I can't beleive those results today! The hard work was done with Red Cadeaux getting beaten at odds on and then the massive drifter goes in and wins trying to scoop peanuts of a stake :\ Profit on the day but still a case of what may have been. Starting bank on day: 82.1 Red Cadeaux +9.92 Dazzling Begum -7.77 Profit/loss on day: +2.15 New bank: 84.25

[Ratmouth]

Re: Fintron's Lays Well done Fin! Keep the faith. The "Red Cadeaux" lay was a fantastic call. T'other one was a freak. Following with interest mate. Keep em comin!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays

Well done Fin! Keep the faith. The "Red Cadeaux" lay was a fantastic call. T'other one was a freak. Following with interest mate. Keep em comin!

Cheers, sometimes when the losers go in they aren't much of a shock, but that one drifted before the off so took me a bit by surprise! Starting bank today: 84.25 Max Liab per bet: 8.43 2.10 Lingfield Laid Vita Mia at 3.4 to backers stake 3.51 Came close last time out but raised in grade, widely drawn, and may be outclassed by one further up in handicap. 2.55 Catterick Laid Northern Flyer at 6.0 to backers stake 1.68 Won last time out at Musselburgh but raised in grade here. A couple of unexposed types at the top of the weights look dangerous. Few others unmatched at present for Catterick/Kempton but will add later.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays One more from Catterick. 4.40 Catterick Laid Dark Moment at 7.4 to backers stake 1.31 Narrowly won last time out and has a class rise to contend with here, one from higher up the handicap may come out on top.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Lays Tonights from Kempton........ 6.20 Kempton Laid Global Village at 6.4 to backers stake 1.56 Was fancied last time out and came up short. Raised in grade and in an apprentices race where anything can happen. 7.20 Kempton Laid Maybe I Wont at 6.2 to backers stake 1.62 Goes for hat-trick but has harsh class ride to contend with on top of rise in weights. 7.50 Kempton Laid Sovereignty at 7.44 to stake 0.55 and 5.3 to 1.01 Won an apprentices race lto, but in a proper handicap here and widely drawn. 8.20 Kempton Laid Nice To Know at 5.5 to backer stake 1.83 A competitive looking race here, the likes of Highly Regal could make this one work for it. 8.50 Kempton Laid Coda Agency at 6.0 to backers stake 1.69 Won here before but raised in greade upon last win and Isabelonabicycle and American Spin may prove too hot to handle.