Hooloovoo Posted April 9, 2008 Share Posted April 9, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Great to see you tweaking this interesting system further....! :clap I will be looking at taking: 1.44 to ~1.75. The reasons for these odds:2x 1.44 = combined odds of 2.07 2x 1.75 = combined odds of 3.06The two combined odds above equate roughly to the odds taken previously in Attempt 1. However, I believe there may be more chance of success by placing low odds favourites as part of a doubles bet, than by placing 1 bet on an underdog. I must admit i don't follow you here...? Why is it a greater chance to succeed with two 1.44 bets than one 2.07 bet? Statistically the possibility for each to happen is equal. That would also mean that your tweak doesn't make any real difference to the structure of the system. Or is it me missing out on something here...? :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 9, 2008 Author Share Posted April 9, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Hi Guys, Thanks for the replies and support :) Will try to answer where I can... HLV, You said: Quote: Originally Posted by madnesstiger I will be looking at taking: 1.44 to ~1.75. The reasons for these odds: 2x 1.44 = combined odds of 2.07 2x 1.75 = combined odds of 3.06The two combined odds above equate roughly to the odds taken previously in Attempt 1. However, I believe there may be more chance of success by placing low odds favourites as part of a doubles bet, than by placing 1 bet on an underdog. I must admit i don't follow you here...? Why is it a greater chance to succeed with two 1.44 bets than one 2.07 bet? Statistically the possibility for each to happen is equal. That would also mean that your tweak doesn't make any real difference to the structure of the system. Or is it me missing out on something here...? :$ You are quite right by saying that both methods have an equal chance of winning mathematically. However, I just feel it is worth trying the system with the 'doubles' method and using much lower odds. Take for example the following market in a football match: UNDER 1.5: 2.84 OVER 1.5: 1.52 Given that the average goals per game in most football leagues/competitions is around 2.3 - 2.6, I would much rather place a double for OVER 1.5 than hope for UNDER 1.5 in a single match. Also, it is something I think punters expect - 'GOALS'. By placing an UNDER bet, you are hoping for the match to remain 0-0 for as long as possible and wait all 90minutes for the outcome. Personally, I like to see 2 goals in the first half so that I know the bet is won, whatever happens in the 2nd half! And like the quote I mentioned in the intro to this approach from Joe Buchdahl's book says, we were effectively chasing winners from the underdogs in Attempt 1, whereas I will be nearly always following the favourite in Attempt 2. This is something I personally prefer to do and is purely down to personal preference in the end. Whichever way you wish to view this 'tweak', we will soon find out if my theory is a successful one, once the bets start flowing! :) Guy Fawkes, You said, Could you just not use a standard bookies though? Enabling bets to be placed simulataneously? Would the lower prices be negated by the commission? GOOD LUCK! I did think about using a separate bookies account, but I think I will continue to use Betfair due to the ease of placing the bets with the 'third party' software I use. Yes, it will be a little more confusing juggling two GloryHunts with one account, but can live with that for now, and will see how it goes. As for waiting for bets to settle before placing the 2nd selection, I've decided that I will place the bets like this: Firstly, place ALL 1st selections for the current stage. By the time I get to placing the last '1st selection' of the current stage, I will be able to start placing the '2nd selections' for those '1st selections' that were winners.Therefore, I am expecting this attempt to take quite a bit longer to complete than the 1st! And, thanks.. for the 'GOOD LUCK'!! :ok And finally... slapshot, You said, Good Luck MadnessTiger with you're 2:nd attempt :ok And I said, Thanks mate, I expect I will need plenty of it! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 9, 2008 Author Share Posted April 9, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Let's put all the talk into action... STAGE 1 (ATTEMPT 2) 50x DOUBLES AT £2 1ST SELECTIONS NO.SELECTIONSODDS11SHALKE 04 (+1.5) to beat BARCELONA1.642STOCKPORT to beat MANSFIELD1.713ST MIRREN to beat GRETNA1.544WATFORD to beat BARNSLEY1.585K.SREBOTNIK to beat L.SAFAROVA1.66 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 9, 2008 Author Share Posted April 9, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness 3 out of 5 for the first batch of 1st selections. Not too bad I guess, would hope to see 2 of the 3 winners pass the 2nd selections. 2 more for tonight over in South America. NO.SELECTIONSODDS16SPORT RECIFE to beat BRASILIENSE1.647SPORT RECIFE vs BRASILIENSE, OVER 2.51.54 A nice 3-0 will do just fine! :hope *** One point I did forget to mention earlier, is that if a winner wins at odds of, say 1.71 (i.e. Stockport County earlier tonight), the 2nd selection can be taken at odds of as little as 1.21 to guarantee a 'double-up' return on the original £2 stake. This fact may well be of some use when desperation sets in from Stage 3(ish) onwards! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness keep it up mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jquik Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness A nice 3-0 will do just fine! :hope 4-1 Good Enough?! :clap:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 10, 2008 Author Share Posted April 10, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness 4-1 was just fine last night! :ok 4 more for tonight: NO.SELECTIONSODDS18EBBSFLEET (+0.5) to beat HALIFAX1.589GETAFE vs B.MUNICH, OVER 1.51.4410PSV (no clean sheet) vs FIORENTINA1.5311SPORTING LISBON vs RANGERS, UNDER 2.51.62 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 10, 2008 Author Share Posted April 10, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness To start the weekend, here's 5 more for Friday evening: NO.SELECTIONSODDS112KOBLENZ (+0.5) to beat OSNABRUCK1.6813DEN BOSCH to beat TELSTAR1.4814THISTED to beat HJORRING1.5215OFTASPOR (+1.5) to beat BESIKTAS1.7116DERRY to beat SLIGO ROVERS1.62 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness 3 from 5 tonight wasn't bad I guess - pretty much went with what was expected from the odds. Not going to waste space by posting the full list every 5 minutes, so here's a brief summary of Stage 1 so far: 1st SELECTIONS BACKED: 16 1st SELECTIONS WON: 11 1st SELECTIONS LOST: 5 STRIKE RATE: 68.8% RETURNS SO FAR: £34.36:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 12, 2008 Author Share Posted April 12, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Another busy weekend in the betting world. Here's Saturday afternoon's picks: NO.SELECTIONSODDS117BIRMINGHAM (+0.5) to beat EVERTON1.6518SHEFFIELD UTD (+0.5) to beat BURNLEY1.6719CAMBRIDGE vs STAFFORD R, OVER 2.51.6120DUISBURG (+1.5) to beat HAMBURG1.7121BOLOGNA (+0.5) to beat CHIEVO1.6422VARTEKS to beat SIBENIK1.56 :hope There'll quite possibly be more picks later this evening! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 12, 2008 Author Share Posted April 12, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness A good afternoon, 5 from 6 was a good result - let's hope it continues this evening... NO.SELECTIONSODDS123SANTANDER (+0.5) to beat VALENCIA1.7424GUIMARES (first goal) vs BOAVISTA1.5525MONS to beat ROESELARE1.6926WISLA KRAKOW to beat JAGIELLONIA1.61 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 13, 2008 Author Share Posted April 13, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 13, 2008 Author Share Posted April 13, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness NO.SELECTION1BACK27UTRECHT (+0.5) to beat DE GRAAFSCHAP1.5328WILLEM II vs FEYENOORD, OVER 2.51.62 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 13, 2008 Author Share Posted April 13, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness And 2 more... NO.SELECTION1BACK29CAGLIARI (+0.5) to beat LIVORNO1.6730UDINESE (+0.5) to beat ROMA1.78 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 13, 2008 Author Share Posted April 13, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Again, 2 more for this evening: NO.SELECTION1BACK31SALAMANCA vs LAS PALMAS, UNDER 2.51.6632VILLAREAL (0.0) to beat ALMERIA1.75 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 14, 2008 Author Share Posted April 14, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness your doing well mate, long may it continue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness The remainder of the 1st Selections from Stage 1 will be played throughout tonight's fixture list, as follows: NO.SELECTION1BACK42MONTPELLIER (+0.5) to beat BREST1.6143GRENOBLE to beat NIORT1.6344W.BREMEN to score 1st vs H.ROSTOCK1.6445COTTBUS (+1.5) to beat SCHALKE1.6946WOLFSBURG to beat BOCHUM1.7347ALDERSHOT (+0.5) to beat EXETER1.6548CRAWLEY vs GRAYS, OVER 2.51.8649QUEENS PARK to beat BERWICK1.8450QUEENS PARK vs BERWICK, OVER 2.51.70 :hope (The first matches kick-off at 1900BST) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Nice going madness. The fact you've hit £85 already without the second legs of each bet yet looks good for the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Nice going madness. The fact you've hit £85 already without the second legs of each bet yet looks good for the future. Thanks mate :) Yeah, I'd like to think of it that way, but there's always the chance of some goddam awful luck in the 2nd selections of the stage! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness 2ND SELECTIONS Apologies for slightly late posting, but just managed to place the first 2 in time before kick-off: NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS1SCHALKE (+1.5) to beat BARCELONA1.64WSTUTTGART vs NURNBERG, OVER 1.51.29£3.222.122STOCKPORT to beat MANSFIELD1.71WBIELEFELD vs B.LEVERKUSEN, OVER 1.51.31£3.352.24 Note that the RETURNS column is actually the STAKE for the 2nd selection, and the DBL ODDS is the combined odds of the 'double' bet. *** Stuttgart are already 1-0 up :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness And just 2 more for tonight: NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS5K.SREBOTNIK to beat L.SAFAROVA1.66WJUVENTUS to beat PARMA1.57£3.262.616SPORT to beat BRASILIENSE1.64WCELTIC TO SCORE vs RANGERS1.33£3.222.18 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Saw the odds and couldn't let this one slip, Vasco da Gama play at a 90,000 capacity stadium, and against lower division opposition in the cup tonight, I cannot see it go any other way but a home win. NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS7SPORT vs BRASILIENSE, OVER 2.51.54WVASCO to beat CRICIUMA1.71£3.032.63 From the earlier bets, 3 of the 4 won, which gave me an overall profit on the night of 31p!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 17, 2008 Author Share Posted April 17, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Vasco did win 1:0, resulting in 4 wins from 5 '2nd selections' :) Tonight's football then: NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS9GETAFE vs BAYERN MUNICH, OVER 1.51.44WSCHAFFHAUSEN to beat DELEMONT1.602.3010FIORENTINA TO SCORE vs PSV1.53WGAIS vs GOTHENBURG, 2+ GOALS1.372.1011SP.LISBON vs RANGERS, UNDER 2.51.62WEVERTON vs CHELSEA, 2+ GOALS1.502.43 :hope:hope The Everton/Chelsea bet looks a bit risky - but both teams are quite capable of scoring goals, so why not tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 17, 2008 Author Share Posted April 17, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Picked 2 games with just 1 goal between them! Never mind! 1 more for tonight: NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS13DEN BOSCH to beat TELSTAR1.48WFLUMINESE to beat LDU QUITO1.432.12 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 18, 2008 Share Posted April 18, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Nice going mate, keep it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 18, 2008 Author Share Posted April 18, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Cheers mate! :ok A few to get the weekend going: NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS14THISTED to beat HJORRING1.52WTOP OSS to beat EINDHOVEN1.382.1015OFTASSPOR (+1.5) to beat BESIKTAS1.71WGO AHEAD EAGLES to beat HAARLEM1.592.7217BIRMINGHAM (+0.5) to beat EVERTON1.65WWIDZEW vs POLONIA, 2+ GOALS1.502.48 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 18, 2008 Author Share Posted April 18, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS18SHEFFIELD UTD (+0.5) to beat BURNLEY1.67WGLENTORAN vs CLIFTONVILLE, OVER 1.51.262.1019CAMBRIDGE vs STAFFORD, OVER 2.51.61WCORK CITY to beat FINN HARPS1.442.32 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 18, 2008 Author Share Posted April 18, 2008 Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Over in the U.S. of A. there's a few bets to be taken in the tennis... NO.SELECTION1BACKRESSELECTION2BACKRESRETURNDBL ODDS24GUIMARAES 1st GOAL vs BOAVISTA1.55WE.DEMENTIEVA to beat P.SCHNYDER1.512.3427UTRECHT (+0.5) to beat DE GRAAFSCHAP1.53WM.FISH to beat O.HERNANDEZ1.612.46 I've skipped a couple of bets out so that I can take these two bets in positions where higher odds were required to meet the combined odds criteria. i.e: the next slot for a 2nd selection required odds of just 1.21, whereas slot 24 required odds of at least 1.34. By taking this option, I will not lose as much should these slightly higher-odds bets fail to win. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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