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The 8 Stages Of Madness

madnesstiger

By madnesstiger
in Glory Hunters

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness

BET13: INDEPENDIENTE VS COLON, OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.06 :hope BET14: INDEPENDIENT VS COLON, COLON TO WIN OR DRAW @ 2.30 :hope
At least one of these must be a winner as it is currently 0:2 after 45mins. About time I had a bit of luck on my side! Anyway, will leave you all tonight with bets 15 & 16... BET15: MORELIA VS SANTOS LAGUNA, SANTOS LAGUNA TO WIN @ 2.48 :hope BET16: ATLANTE VS GUADALAJARA, OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.10 :hope :ok
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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Boosted by the 4.40 winner of Ronaldo to score first, a strong second-half of Stage 2 gives us hope yet! BET19: EVERTON VS DERBY, EVERTON NO CLEAN SHEET @ 2.28 :hope A few more to go after this one, which I'm sure will get placed at some point this afternoon ;)

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness BET03: AGF VS VIBORG, AGF TO WIN @ 2.04 :hope BET04: STROMSGODSET VS ROSENBORG, ROSENBORG TO WIN @ 2.22 :hope BET05: KALMAR FF VS LJUNGSKILE, OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.02 :hope BET06: HAMMARBY VS SUNDSVALL, OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.04 :hope All quite low odds here for a change! Would be nice to get 2 or 3 from this lot :)

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness

Time for the 'Bonus Bet' of £3.53. Aberdeen have scored more goals in the last 10 minutes of league matches this season than at any other 10-minute period.. so: BET07: ABERDEEN VS FALKIRK, ABERDEEN TO SCORE NEXT GOAL (IN-PLAY, 82MINS) @ #.## :hope (STAKE: £3.53)
I DON'T BELIEVE IT!!! Was just about to post the above, when... Aberdeen scored!
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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness Ok, will try again! A similar method of selection... Crystal Palace score plenty of goals in the last 10 minutes of league matches this season, so why not again tonight?! BET07: STOKE VS CRYSTAL PALACE, CRYSTAL PALACE TO SCORE NEXT GOAL (IN-PLAY, 83MINS) @ 7.20 :hope (STAKE: £3.53)

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness STAGE 4 3x £16 BETS BET01: SHEFFIELD UTD VS SHEFFIELD WEDS, SHEFFIELD UTD TO WIN @ 2.18 :hope BET02: WEST HAM UTD VS PORTSMOUTH, OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.34:hope BET03: CHELSEA VS FENERBAHCE, FENERBAHCE (+1.5) @ 2.09 :hope There you have it - Stage 4 will be completed one way or another tonight! Will there be a Stage 5 or not..? Let's hope so! :ok *** PS: Already got ideas for Attempt 2 of this system ;)

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness And.. they all lose!

STAGE 43 BETS OF £ 16.00 AND 1 BET OF £ 0.04
NO.MARKETSELECTIONODDSRESULTRETURNS
1SHEFFIELD UTD vs SHEFFIELD WEDSSHEFFIELD UTD TO WIN2.18L £ -
2WEST HAM UTD vs PORTSMOUTHOVER 2.5 GOALS2.34L £ -
3CHELSEA vs FENERBAHCEFENERBAHCE (+1.5)2.09L £ -
BETS PLACED: 3 (83) BETS WON: 0 (27) BETS LOST: 3 (56) START BANK: £100.00 FINAL BANK: £0.00 Still, not to worry... was worth the experience if nothing else :) *** Will there be an Attempt 2.. you bet there will be! Give me chance to get a few thioughts together, and then I'll dish out the 'tweaks' for the 2nd attempt at The 8 Stages Of Madness :ok
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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: The 8 Stages Of Madness THE 8 STAGES OF MADNESS ATTEMPT 2 - DOUBLE TROUBLE After (or rather, during) a miserable Attempt 1 of this system, I had idea's on how to improve the chances of it being a success. Now, it may be set for a bigger upset than the previous efforts, but then again, it may prove very fruitful - we'll see. Anyway, here's my new theory: In Attempt 1, we were placing bets of at least 2.00 (2.06 to guarantee 'double-up' returns after commission) which equate to just 48.5% chance. This is of course prices set by the general betting public, but give quite a good measure in the long run. Myself (and others trying this system) lost plenty of bets at these odds, with alot of selections with odds as high as 3.25 (just 30.8% chance). I believe this may have something to do with why several of us lost our money after just 3 or 4 stages. Here's how I plan to work the system in Attempt 2. Rather than place bets on the 'underdog' selections, why not place bets on the favourites. To make this work I will be making 2 selections to form each 'bet' in the system, and these are the odds I will be looking at taking: 1.44 to ~1.75. The reasons for these odds:

  • 2x 1.44 = combined odds of 2.07
  • 2x 1.75 = combined odds of 3.06

The two combined odds above equate roughly to the odds taken previously in Attempt 1. However, I believe there may be more chance of success by placing low odds favourites as part of a doubles bet, than by placing 1 bet on an underdog. Odds of 1.44 = 69.4%, and odds of 1.75 = 57.1%. These are considerably higher chances than the ones used in Attempt 1. After reading plenty of books on the subject of sports betting, I refer to Joe Buchdahl's 'Fixed Odds Sports Betting' by quoting:

In the long run, backing favourites at level stakes gives a higher return per £1 staked than by backing the underdogs in a given market.
With this method of thinking in mind, I think Attempt 2 may well be more fruitful than the previous efforts. Granted, this method of using the system will cause a little confusion in the financial department, as I will have to ensure the selections that form the 'double' are spread apart to give Betfair time to settle the returns (as the returns from the 1st selection will be the stake for the 2nd selection). Confusing as it may sound, it could be worth the hassle as it could mean the difference between losing £100 and winning thousands! So, I will list both selections of each 'double', although both need to win to provide a return. Needless to say, each 'double' will equate to 1 'bet' as far as the system is considered (i.e. 50 doubles will be placed to form Stage 1). And if I haven't sent you into a deep sleep already, and you're still interested... here's an updated spreadsheet for use with the Attempt 2 method: > Have I just wasted the last hour typing this up, or will the new method actually work? Will anybody be interested... or will it get all too confusing. Will it pay-off.. or will it simply steal our money faster than the gas board. There's one way to find out. Watch this space!! :) MT :ok
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