dustbin2 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Welcome folks to the new ( and hopefully improved thread ):hope 4 weeks ago I started a basic system which chose the British leagues with the highest percentage of away wins. I reasoned that if I then chose the away teams from that league with the superior 6 match form than there opponents, I would increase the chances of the already likely away win! Simple but it seemed to work, 4 weeks on we had a strike rate of around 40% and a yield of 11% I also reasoned if these picks were at evens or above i could afford a few loses. This weekend was not good which reduced these figures a bit BUT Lunatism and the gooner have done sterling work adding a few filters to my basic system and it seems we have improved strike rate and yield by picking world leagues for which this streamlined system works well. As I understand , the Loon will post the system picks which could be daily , the system is in his computer and uses the best performing leagues, so leagues might change as we go on. A staking plan will be posted as this system will go live right away, and i think we will update system results weekly. The Loon and the goon will add their thoughts to this. So:hope we accept no responsibility for monies lost but will accept all donations to future system research and nights on the p..s:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Best of luck Guys,will be following:hope And heres hoping :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 8, 2008 Author Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Cheers Richy , good to have you onboard:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Wow....I hardly feel like i've done anything but recognise the potential. good luck and if any help is required i'm more than willing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways All the best of luck , boys . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 8, 2008 Author Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways You had valuable input early on mate:clap The loon does a lot of the work but then he doesnt sleep:tongue2 Just keep them crossed:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways The loon does a lot of the work but then he doesnt sleep:tongue2 Yeah I think he runs on Duracel batteries:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 9, 2008 Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Yeah I think he runs on Duracel batteries:lol something like that :D any selections for today on the other thread? Because I have two for today if you think we should start now?! but one is below 2.00...and (thinking long term) I don't know whether we should be taking under 2.00 or not :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 9, 2008 Author Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Hey loon, just heading to work..yes I know its Sunday but the fire service runs 365 days a year Im afraid. :( I personnally think we should keep above evens as the few ( hopefully ) loses we have are more than compensated by the evens or over winners. Start tomorrow if you like mate, new week, new start. Will check in tonight, hope the name and explanation are ok? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 9, 2008 Author Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways A nice win with Wrexham today with the old system, a few picks midweek I would think looking at league two and the Scots leagues so hopefully a flying start:hope Looking forward as always to the stats from the tech expert;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 9, 2008 Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways well taking up your advice of only backing the over 2's would have been profitable today, since the selection was Everton :tongue2....but had my money tied up in other matches so couldn't take advantage of that! Later on in the day (after midnight), the opening stats will be posted, and then i'll suggest (and you can agree/disagree) what leagues we should be looking at for the coming week! Since it will only be F1's (since they are showing consistent profit), there won't be such a HUUUUUUUGE quantity of selections as with your unfiltered version, but hopefully :hope:hope:hope we'll see the same kind of positive strike rate that they have been enjoying over the last few weeks of testing! i guess one day, the easiest thing for me to do would be to set up a website and start posting my entire daily ratings, that way other people could experiment with how different rated matches can be manipulated for greater profits.....but that's a while off yet :tongue2 ...anyway - we can see what happens after midnight ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 9, 2008 Author Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Loon you do that website and we will have to pay you for all your hard work:lol I understand there wont be as much selections as with my basic method but then again, strike rate, profit and yield should still be better with the F1.:ok Im more than happy to go with your selected leagues mate, thats whats been working so why change it. looking forward to your stats, catch them in the morning before work. :hope for the F1s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 10, 2008 Share Posted March 10, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 10, 2008 Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways There aren't any selections for today. But there are 3 for tomorrow (1 league two, 2 conference north)....but before i post them: dusty - what format do you want them posted in? and which bookie should we use? or should I just put in the best odds available? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Great stuff loon, not that much change in our usual leagues and looking forward to tomorrows selections. You can put the best odds up if its no trouble.. lazy me will be sticking with 365 as usual. What about a fromat as simple as : selection league best odds stake I know that might be simple but its probably all we need, unless you can suggest anything else. Looking forward to going live m8.:hope Away to work, will check in tonight. Are you going to put up the staking plan on the thread? if not can you PM it to me so i get an understanding:ok Roll on tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 10, 2008 Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Great stuff loon, not that much change in our usual leagues and looking forward to tomorrows selections. You can put the best odds up if its no trouble.. lazy me will be sticking with 365 as usual. What about a fromat as simple as : selection league best odds stake I know that might be simple but its probably all we need, unless you can suggest anything else. Looking forward to going live m8.:hope Away to work, will check in tonight. Are you going to put up the staking plan on the thread? if not can you PM it to me so i get an understanding:ok Roll on tomorrow. right....i'll put these selections up a little later today, as preliminary selections, and then confirm them tomorrow morning :ok Sure - once i've done a little more testing, i'll either put up "that" staking plan, or something else that works out just as well ;) looking forward to it too.....hopefully we'll have a great start to the week, with lots of dancing cows all round!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways looking forward to it myself mate, lets hope for the bananas and cows:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 10, 2008 Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Good luck with this lads, i'll be keeping a watchful eye as i'm doing some aways on the Micheal Wray Return to Oz thread & will be intrested to see if the picks in the leagues i do are the same as yours... GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 10, 2008 Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways hmmmm, strange enough, it seems that staking plan I was playing around with doesn't work so well with odds over 2.00. So for the moment i'll just suggest 2.5pts from the daily bank. So we'll start with 100 pts and stakes of 2.5pts, then if we had a few winners and the bank became 110pts, the stakes would rise to 2.75pts, etc This will be calculated on a day to day basis and not a selection by selection preocess (otherwise it might get a little messy ;)) Preliminary selections for Tomorrow: LEAGUE SELECTION ODDS STAKE English League Two Peterborough United FC 2.00 2.50 pts English National League Conference - North Boston United FC 2.00 2.50 pts English National League Conference - North Hyde United FC 2.20 2.50 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways That staking plan seems fine mate, looking forward to putting a few on those picks:hope heres hoping for a decent start. Off to livescores to see if my last bet of the old system (MK dons are holding on). Good work Loon, catch you tomorrow.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Matchday 1 (11-03-08) Here is the confirmed list of selections - nothing removed, but a few games added: LEAGUE SELECTION ODDS STAKE English League Two Darlington FC 2.50 2.50 pts English League Two Hereford United FC 2.08 2.50 pts English League Two Peterborough United FC 2.00 2.50 pts English National League Conference - North Boston United FC 2.00 2.50 pts English National League Conference - North Hyde United FC 2.20 2.50 pts Good luck!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 11, 2008 Author Share Posted March 11, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Hi loon :hope for tonight , some good picks I think. Bit nervous tho :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways SELECTION RESULT RETURN Darlington FC 0 - 0 0.00 :eyes Hereford United FC 0 - 1 5.20 :tongue2 Peterborough United FC 1 - 2 5.00 :tongue2 Boston United FC 1 - 0 0.00 :eyes Hyde United FC 2 - 0 0.00 :eyes TOTAL STAKED12.50TOTAL RETURNED10.20P / L-2.30YIELD-18%STRIKE RATE40%CURRENT BANK97.70NEXT UNIT STAKE2.44 Right, so not the perfect start we dreamed of, but not to worry, this will pick up :ok There will be more games at the weekend, not sure of any in the week yet....but will keep checking and post when i know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways LEAGUE SELECTION ODDS STAKE English League Two Bradford City FC 2.55 2.44 pts Good Luck!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways :unsure we should have known that would happen after going live, your right though mate, no need to worry. We've done our testing and know we will take a few loses, wasnt a great night for most of the football systems on here. We will be back in profit by the weekend if not tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways :cow Bradford 0-1:cow Back into profit:clap Roll on the weekend boys:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways TOTAL STAKED 14.84 TOTAL RETURNED 16.17 P / L 1.33 YIELD 8.94% STRIKE RATE 50% STARTING BANK 100 CURRENT BANK 101.33 NEXT UNIT STAKE 2.53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Hope I didnt steal your thunder with the dancing cows loon, and maybe it was a bit excessive for a profit of 1.33 pts but what the ....:tongue2 Profit is profit! Suspect there wont be any picks from tonights games but a load at the weekend. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways nice one will be following this system would do your other system loon but i don,t think my bank account can take two more accounts anyway keep up the good work roll on saterday :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways nice one will be following this system would do your other system loon but i don' date='t think my bank account can take two more accounts anyway keep up the good work roll on saterday :D[/quote'] :welcometo PL Hamcat! It's nice to know there are a least a handful of people that are finding this helpful! (although bank increase of 1.33 isn't much to write home about!). Right now, there are about 17 qualifying selections between today and monday :loon but i guess that number will change over the weekend. I'll post the ones for the weekend tomorrow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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