lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Hope I didnt steal your thunder with the dancing cows loon' date=' and maybe it was a bit excessive for a profit of 1.33 pts but what the ....:tongue2 Profit is profit! Suspect there wont be any picks from tonights games but a load at the weekend. :hope[/quote'] forget it's 1.33 pts from a starting bank of and think of it like this - 8% yield in just a few days, which is not a bad way to start for a system we "know" (well...the stats say) works pretty well. And with the leagues included under review every week, in theory at least, the reliability of the selections should increase week by week! There are a lot of games over the weekend, so we'll be able to have a better initial picture after that :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways I am amazed at the commitment and enthusiasm of you guys (Dusty, Lunatism & HappyGooner) :clap. I will be following your system to see how it pans out. I wish you every success :hope. However, the pessimistic side of my character prompted me to write the following comments in my "Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2" thread: What is going on in English League 2? So far, this season, there have been 41% away wins compared with an average of 27% over the previous 5 seasons. Is there a logical explanation for this phenomenon, or is it simply an extraordinary statistical aberration? There has been no change to the inherent advantage of being the home team…. its players continue to be more familiar with the playing surface conditions; they don’t have a long and tiring journey to get to the stadium; hopefully the home team continues to get the vast majority of vocal support from the spectators. Could there be a psychological explanation?…. perhaps, once the trend started early in the season, home team players lost confidence and became nervous, resulting in under-par performances….. but, I don’t think so. I think it is simply a statistical “blip”, admittedly a big one… but, for me, there is no other explanation. I know that Dusty, Lunatism and HappyGooner are hoping to take advantage of this abnormality in English League 2 and other leagues (see “Dusty and LoonGoon’s Aways” thread), but I can’t help feeling there may be some advantage in actually opposing the statistical anomaly and adopting a “contrary” approach by selectively backing the home team. I hope for D, L and HG’s sake that I’m wrong. Anybody got any views on this? This is not meant as a put-down of your system.... simply a subjective opinion from an eternal pessimist :sad:sad I am sure after the weekend I will be eating my words :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways I am amazed at the commitment and enthusiasm of you guys (Dusty, Lunatism & HappyGooner) :clap. I will be following your system to see how it pans out. I wish you every success :hope. However, the pessimistic side of my character prompted me to write the following comments in my "Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2" thread: What is going on in English League 2? So far, this season, there have been 41% away wins compared with an average of 27% over the previous 5 seasons. Is there a logical explanation for this phenomenon, or is it simply an extraordinary statistical aberration? There has been no change to the inherent advantage of being the home team…. its players continue to be more familiar with the playing surface conditions; they don’t have a long and tiring journey to get to the stadium; hopefully the home team continues to get the vast majority of vocal support from the spectators. Could there be a psychological explanation?…. perhaps, once the trend started early in the season, home team players lost confidence and became nervous, resulting in under-par performances….. but, I don’t think so. I think it is simply a statistical “blipâ€, admittedly a big one… but, for me, there is no other explanation. I know that Dusty, Lunatism and HappyGooner are hoping to take advantage of this abnormality in English League 2 and other leagues (see “Dusty and LoonGoon’s Aways†thread), but I can’t help feeling there may be some advantage in actually opposing the statistical anomaly and adopting a “contrary†approach by selectively backing the home team. I hope for D, L and HG’s sake that I’m wrong. Anybody got any views on this? This is not meant as a put-down of your system.... simply a subjective opinion from an eternal pessimist :sad:sad I am sure after the weekend I will be eating my words :ok Well the good thing about the choice of leagues we use, is that it's not static, and so if league two were to suddenly hit that inevitable downer, we'd be well placed to spot that trend and "jump ship" before we staked away our life savings :) But here's to hoping that doesn't happen! There are other leagues which follow a similar pattern, and although not in a position to comment on the overall home win / draw / away win percentages for each league over the last few seasons (although i could...i do have the backdata to do a "little" test like that!), i'm happy that we review each league weekly. But I can definitely see where you're going, and maybe we could spawn the opposite of this thread (with complete lack of imagination) "the opposite of Dusty LoonGoons Aways".....with certain criteria that look at the most weak of suggestions and say "hey, the home side might actually win that!". of course i won't though :tongue2 Another reason why we might be able to avoid any returns to normal percentages (in terms of away wins), are that the adiidtional criteria i look at "help" to weed out some of the really really tight fixtures, and that's why there wont be 100's of selections a week. Hopefully, these criteria will help in batting away that problem :ok Looking through the stats i have on this, removing League Two wouldn't affect the strike rate and yield too much anyway (dropping overall yield to 13% and strike rate to 45%), so it's not something that would shouldn't be able to handle :hope:hope:hope Without League two as part of the "F1 consortium" (sounds clever, right?), the yield for just those leagues would be 51% with a 60% strike rate. And i don't think that each of the other leagues are under blips too....but who really knows for sure! I guess the thing about betting is to spot a trend and exploit it as long as it last, and if all we are sitting on is a temporary trend, we should all get as much out as possible ;) Thanks for your input :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways oh yea, the problem with going opposite, is that the odds wouldn't be as appealing, and the number of losses you'd meet (at present anyway) might greatly shrink your bank balance! but maybe something to look into in the future.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks for your response..... comprehensive as always :D oh yea' date= the problem with going opposite, is that the odds wouldn't be as appealing, and the number of losses you'd meet (at present anyway) might greatly shrink your bank balance! but maybe something to look into in the future.... You're right about the less appealing odds..... but I was suggesting selective home bets, not blanket coverage!! It's interesting to note that the average Bet365 odds for English League 2 "aways" last season was 3.45..... for the current season, given the high % of away wins, you would have expected a marked decrease in this average... it has reduced, but only slightly to 3.43. I realise that season H-D-A trends form only a minor element of the bookies' odds-fixing strategy, but I'm surprised this statistical anomoly hasn't had a bigger impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks for your response..... comprehensive as always :D You're right about the less appealing odds..... but I was suggesting selective home bets, not blanket coverage!! It's interesting to note that the average Bet365 odds for English League 2 "aways" last season was 3.45..... for the current season, given the high % of away wins, you would have expected a marked decrease in this average... it has reduced, but only slightly to 3.43. I realise that season H-D-A trends form only a minor element of the bookies' odds-fixing strategy, but I'm surprised this statistical anomoly hasn't had a bigger impact. of course, that would make a lot more sense! well how about this....you set out some ground rules about how you would be selective in your selections, and then each time i put some up, you note down which you'd do the opposite for. In no time at all i'm sure you would see how profitable this would be :ok (and of course, keep us informed of progress) Perhaps laying the away would be more succesful if you wanted to pursue this strategy though? That way you are covered for draws too, and laying odds wouldn't be high since these would be tight games to start off with :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks, Lunatism, for the concrete suggestion....... but I will decline your kind offer..... I have enough on my plate maintaining my PR Ratings system.... and, anyway, I´m trying to get myself a life ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks' date=' Lunatism, for the concrete suggestion....... but I will decline your kind offer..... I have enough on my plate maintaining my PR Ratings system.... and, anyway, I´m trying to get myself a life ;)[/quote'] dear Grex, are you saying I haven't got a life?!! :loon shocking! :tongue2 i just have lots and lots of free time to do what I will (well, apart from estudiando español y húngaro, but that's a different story). i might even look into it, but goon would tell you, i'm hopeless when it comes to playing with lays (and trading in general i guess) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways I didn´t mean any offense....... ´fraid I´m a bit of an hijo de puta :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways I didn´t mean any offense....... ´fraid I´m a bit of an hijo de puta :spank haha i'm sure you're not, don't worry none taken, i was just pulling your leg mate :tongue2 i've just looked through my stats for this year though, and looks like a strike rate of 80% + for laying the away side is possible (and this is pre-tweaking too). And with reasonable odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks for your interest and pessimisim Grex:rollin You are probably right about league two this year and the away trend will probably not continue, but the beauty of the tech experts ( Loon ) work is that he checks the leagues weekly like he says so we are picking the highest probability. As far as going against the system, I am looking at another simple system where I pick the leagues with the highest percentage of home wins, then pick teams above their opponents in the 6 match form league then select the evens or above picks. Really Dustys basic aways in reverse. I am doing a wee paper trial starting this weekend where there are a few picks. However , this system is where my cash will be going.:ok Great to have a few folk getting on board now:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks for your interest and pessimisim Grex:rollin You are probably right about league two this year and the away trend will probably not continue, but the beauty of the tech experts ( Loon ) work is that he checks the leagues weekly like he says so we are picking the highest probability. As far as going against the system, I am looking at another simple system where I pick the leagues with the highest percentage of home wins, then pick teams above their opponents in the 6 match form league then select the evens or above picks. Really Dustys basic aways in reverse. I am doing a wee paper trial starting this weekend where there are a few picks. However , this system is where my cash will be going.:ok Great to have a few folk getting on board now:hope :loon you should have said earlier, i never really thought of testing in reverse since i've had other things on my mind.....i guess i should at some point. Although I guess you wont get many picks tho? Being a form team at home usually ends up with odds of no more than 1.80....but let's hope that it comes out good anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thats what I thought Loon, but there are actually 8 picks at the weekend from the premiership, league one and scottish one at evens or above. Im just looking at this, no intention of a new thread, more than happy with the potential of the F1s for now:dude Back to watching Rangers, cannot believe its still 0-0...could be Rangers night. Maybe a pick or two tomorrow at first glance Loon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scukit Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways best of luck guys, was kinda following dustys last thread on and off, but wis u all the best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 13, 2008 Author Share Posted March 13, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways cheers scukit:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways ok, in case it wasn't obvious :tongue2, the highlighted matches are the ones that we well count as selections. The others are more than likely to win, but since we're only taking above 2, we have to give them a miss! LEAGUE SELECTION ODDS STAKE English Premiership Manchester United 1.18 2.53 pts English Premiership Chelsea Football Club 1.48 2.53 pts English National League Conference - North Harrogate Town FC 2.05 2.53 pts English National League Conference - North Gainsborough Trinity FC 2.30 2.53 pts English National League Conference - South Braintree Town FC 2.01 2.53 pts English National League Conference - South Eastbourne Borough FC 1.60 2.53 pts English Southern Premier Division (Southern) Gloucester City FC 2.40 2.53 pts English Southern Premier Division (Southern) Chippenham Town FC 2.10 2.53 pts English Southern Premier Division (Southern) Halesowen Town FC 1.40 2.53 pts English Southern Premier Division (Southern) Hemel Hempstead Town FC 2.30 2.53 pts Italian Serie B US Lecce 1.95 2.53 pts Italian Serie B Rimini Calcio FC 2.90 2.53 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 14, 2008 Author Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Gr8 stuff Loon, :hope for that lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways just found out i forgot to put on the Brugge Belgian selection for tomorrow. The odds are 2.25 :ok Good Luck as usual! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 14, 2008 Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways dear Grex' date= are you saying I haven't got a life?!! :loon shocking! :tongue2 i just have lots and lots of free time to do what I will (well, apart from estudiando español y húngaro, but that's a different story). i might even look into it, but goon would tell you, i'm hopeless when it comes to playing with lays (and trading in general i guess) I'm hopeless in everything betting wise apart from highlighting good ideas and realising the potential of certain systems (although i've not made any pay as yet!). Not to worry though grex as interesting as this is to monitor that's all i'm doing for the time being. More interested in a laying system which me and the loon are discussing:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 14, 2008 Author Share Posted March 14, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways On that one too Loon, had a wee interest bet on liege tonight as the basic system threw them up, 0-2 at half time so lets hope thats a good omen :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 15, 2008 Author Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Only looking like 2 out of 7 so far this week Loon:wall Sods law...as soon as the cash goes on. Will double check the results and get back on later:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 15, 2008 Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways shocking.....not the start we hoped for at all. Still, i have faith in this :ok (might take a while to get upto scratch though :eyes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 15, 2008 Author Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Yeah mate, long way from panic stations yet. Got a few quid back on your selection from the lower german league on LSS ( i did fixed odds ), few to run on cavellos value bets so I should about break even overall this weekend.:hope I havent seen a system yet that doesnt have its bad streaks, we are having ours, it will pass.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 15, 2008 Author Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Brugge 0-0 :sad 2 out 8, probably the worst week the system has had since we started testing! Just wasnt to be our day boys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 15, 2008 Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Brugge 0-0 :sad 2 out 8' date= probably the worst week the system has had since we started testing! Just wasnt to be our day boys. It'll pick up. Not to worry. Over evens odds always has the potential for one or two stinkers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 15, 2008 Author Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways cheers Goon, Im sure it will :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 15, 2008 Share Posted March 15, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways only need to make back a few squid to hit even and beyond lads, so keep heads up! Stats will be around later :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 16, 2008 Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways :D by later, i mean tomorrow morning (thought it was Sunday when i wrote that!!!) TOTAL STAKED35.08TOTAL RETURNED27.80P / L-7.28YIELD-20.76%STRIKE RATE36%STARTING BANK100CURRENT BANK92.72NEXT UNIT STAKE2.32 horrible looking stats i'm sure you will agree, let's hope for an Everton win to make life a little less stressful! one selection for today: LEAGUESELECTIONODDSSTAKEEnglish PremiershipEverton Football Club2.002.33 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways :loon Yes the stats dont look good Loon...for now, this is the first week the F1s have shown a loss so it will turn around:hope Hopefully Evertons poor form down at Fulham will come to an end this lunch time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Fulham 1-0 Everton :wall sums up the weekend...thankfully its over:rollinHeres hoping for next week boys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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