NZ v England - 3 Tests

[Pie-chucker]

Starts in Hamilton this Wednesday (Tue night for you UKers). The 3-Test Series ought to through up a comfortable 2-0 win for England, based on player match-ups. England top 6 all average over 40; none of NZ do. NZ bowlers better suited to ODI canny containment rather than blasting through an experienced top order. But can't bring myself to get involved. Two series bets I do like are spreads on individuals. Vettori has a batting ave of 29.00 in home tests, and has 2x100 and 14x50 to his name in overall test stats. This bloke can bat and this looks pitched too low: 1pt BUY Vettori series runs @ 125 The other is also a buy, on NZ wicketkeeper performance. 5 catches a match would give 150 series points. This is optimistic, I admit, as if England fire (or rain), an England one innings test is a distinct possibility. Two stumpings in series yields 50 points. Could happen, as McCullum will likely stand up to some of the medium pace. Only 6 stumped in 29 tests, so again optimistic! But it's in the runs dept where any shortfall should be made up. Averages 30 in tests, plus huge confidence at the moment with the bat. This should go easily over: 0.5pt BUY NZ wicketkeeper series performance @ 275

[davidmphill]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Always liked back Vettori when it comes to his batting, seems to be underestimated by many with bat in hand. Looks a safe bet for me PC.

[Football-Tipper]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Live links here if anyone wants to watch them LINK

[swooperman]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Looked long & hard at this & just cannot see past an England series win. I think we're heading towards a period of declining standards in test cricket as Australia edge back towards the pack, & its definetly going to be influenced by tournaments such as the IPL which mean players taking the money & quitting earlier. NZ are one of the biggest affected here as they are one of the lowest payers & theyre missing a fair few who would have been available for selection in this series. Missing Bond is catastrophic for NZ IMO as I think he could have carried the series for NZ, & the likes of O'Brien (although injured) & Gillespie are light years adrift of Bonds class. Also missing are the likes of Scott Styris & Hamish marshall whove around a long while, & with Fleming playing his last series I can only see grief for NZ. After saying that they bat a fair way down & the likes of Oram & Vettori shouldnt be underestimated but I just feel they look weak. Normally they'd have a big advantage in their own conditions but essentially playing in NZ is like playing in England in april & may. I do rate the 2 spinners in Vettori & Patel however, but tuesdays rain might stop them playing both. Strauss returns at 3 for England essentially giving them 3 openers, & whilst its very difficult to judge Seddon Park as its been relaid I feel Englands bowlers & Hoggard in particular will be far too good. Theres rain forecast saturday which is why I assume the draw is as low as 2.64 but I think England @ 2.6 on Betfair are a very good price

[swooperman]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Meant to say as well that the 3rd test is in Napier which by the look of the ODI there, & the fact theres been 4 draws in 5 tests, looks an absolute road so I'd back Pies 2-0

[kevshat]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests I think this could be a tighter series than it's made out to be. 5pts Lay England to win Test Series 1.83 Betfair

England’s overseas record isn’t particularly good and even though conditions in New Zealand should suit our style of cricket we could only manage a 1-1 draw in our there. We’ve only won one of our last 11 matches overseas which came in India and the constant chopping and changing of selection can’t possibly help. Even going into this 1^st test we’ve seen some changes which I’m not convinced are going to help. I’ve no problem with Strauss coming back into the side but why is he batting out of position at 3 when Vaughan has batted at 3 for the last 4 years prior to the Sri Lanka series?! Also once again the England wicket keeping revolving door is in motion. This time it’s Tim Ambrose who gets the nod. The less said about that choice the better too!

Away from England’s selection issues we have to remember that although we are facing a depleted New Zealand side in terms of the last one we faced, we are facing a side who are good in their own conditions and have a winning record in them recently. One thing England can capitalise on is that NZ have played just 4 tests in 15 months and 2 of those were against Bangladesh. However NZ love playing at Hamilton where the 1^st test is and have the momentum from a comfortable ODI series win last month. Stephen Fleming calls it a day after this series and he’ll want to go out well so there’s enough to suggest that NZ can at least grab a draw in this series if not win it. It’s hard to see how New Zealand can take 20 wickets regularly but equally they bat a long way down and so this series should be closer than many think.

6pts J.How’s Series Runs Over 189.5 5/6 Bet365

Jamie How is a cricketer I like the look of. When I 1^st saw him I didn’t think much to him but he’s impressed me more and more as I see more of him. He hit a stunning 139 at Napier in the ODI series against England and that’s a ground this series goes to. He hasn’t yet done much in his test career but that career is in it’s infancy with only 6 tests to his name so I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before his test average matches his ODI average in the 40’s. He looks to have a good technique and I don’t think 190 is beyond him in this series.

2pts A.Cook Top England Series Batsman 4/1 Skybet

Alastair Cook is blossoming into a really good opener for England. He’s only 24 matches into his test career but he already has a test average of just over 45 and needs only 64 more runs for 2000 in test cricket. He’s also got 7 centuries in his short test career too and being only 23 years old he could have that openers spot for a long time to come. He had a good series in Sri Lanka and didn’t do too badly in the recent ODI series in New Zealand either. The pitches will offer a bit of bounce but won’t be the quickest and Alastair Cook won’t be far away when the England runs are totted up at the end of the series.

[kevshat]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests 1st test then. Hamilton. Kiwi's have won 3 and drew 2 of the last 5 here. Decent pitch predicted for at least 3 days and rain maybe thrown into the mix too. Draw looks a possible runner but this pitch seems to crumble 2nd time round so could be a late result. I'll leave the result as normal but will attack the side markets. 10pts J.Oram’s Performance Pts 111&Over 5/6 Bet365

Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket.

Jacob Oram is really going to have to step up to the plate in this series given New Zealand’s retirements recently. He’ll need to contribute with bat and ball and he’s perfectly capable of doing so. He splattered England’s bowlers to all parts at times in the ODI series and on a good wicket which is expected here he should score a few runs here too. He also has a decent bowling record in New Zealand too. He has 33 wickets at less than 20 a piece so he’ll go well. In his 3 tests at Hamilton he’s taken 10 wickets, took 2 catches and scored 177 runs, 119 of which came in one innings so this target is well within reach for New Zealand’s star all rounder.

10pts A six to be hit on Day 1 Evs Sportingbet

Both these sides have some aggressive batsmen. Pietersen, Oram, McCullum and Ambrose all like to give the ball a bash and any one of them could launch one over the ropes. The good thing about Hamilton though is the short boundaries and on a pitch which is expected to be good, anything remotely short or offline could go some. It could well be a day where wickets are few and far between and if a batsman gets in he should be able to clear the ropes at some point during the day.

5pts Any batsman to score a century on Day 1 13/8 Sportingbet

New Zealand’s last two 1^st innings here have been 563 and 509. Test cricket hasn’t been played at Hamilton for 4 years and the pitch has been relaid since then but it didn’t look to bad in the one dayer here – well certainly Brendan McCullum didn’t think it was bad as he slaughtered the England attack to all parts. England have plenty of players in their lineup capable of scoring tons not least Andrew Strauss who has been playing here as his home ground recently for Northern Districts. The curator says he expects this pitch to play well for 3 days so both captains will want to get in and stick a decent score on the board and with the small boundaries here the scoring rate should be high enough for a century on the 1^st day.

2pts ew D.Vettori Top New Zealand Batsman 20/1 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3) (1^st Inns Only)

Daniel Vettori is a decent lower order batsman who played a couple of decent little innings in the recent one day series to install confidence that he can bat against this bowling attack. He had a knock of 42 and was then 14 not out in that thrilling tie too. He hit 94 in a top scoring 1^st innings effort against Bangladesh just after Christmas too so he’s in decent enough form with the bat. In the last 2 1^st innings in test matches here he’s hit 137* and 53 so at 20/1 he’s well worth an ew pop.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests I am with England for this series, 4/5 10 pts is not that bad I reckon. England have iffy recent form in tests particularly away from home, I think it is just 1 win from the last 15 away tests which is a very poor record when considering the ability in the team. However the face a NZ team who for me will struggle big time to get 20 wickets to win a match, I see they may go the two spinners (Vetorri and Patel) but I just do not think England, in particular Pietersen if he was at the crease, let them settle especially Patel. Their pace attack looks pretty friendly. Martin looks an improved bowler but if he is their star paceman with no Bond then he would be nowhere near the England team and that suggests just a bit about the gulf between the teams. England have underachieved of late in tests and this is the chance to put it right. Batsman should score runs or they should be dropped with the competition for places, even Vaughan who splendid captain he is, now has added pressure due to recent results and the split captaincy which normally ends one way. I can see why Vaughan is opening in the sense that he is still proven in that position and the dismal failure of Cook/Strauss opening partnership but equally I understand what Kev is saying about the slightly strange process of consistency. Just one more would be Sidebottom @ 5/2 for top eng wicket taker. He is now fit and since he has come into the Test and ODI sides he has been revelation imo. I had doubts when he was picked but he has been most impressive and his figures are nowhere near as impressive as they would be if the fielders had backed him up. Pitches in NZ can be flat and slow at times but equally there can be swing and overhead conditions can and often do suit in that area. I just hope Sidebottom does not turn into one of those bowlers who always goes past the edge and the wickets happen at the other end. To sum, up England for me in the series, I think they have far too much firepower.

[mdivenuto]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests I am well aware it is not normally prudent to take a view in opposition to the tipping legend that is KevShat, but by the sound of what he has written above I dont think he will be too impressed by the bet I have spent the last few days lumping on. Top England Series Batsman: T Ambrose EACH WAY 40/1 @ Boylessports. Its more of a bet against the rest of the English batsmen I suppose. No guarantee that they will get all 3 tests, particularly Strauss, while there is no doubt Timmy A will get to play all 3 games. I am certainly not advocating backing him win only, but at Boylessports exceedingly generous 1/4 odds 3 places, 40/1 has got to be far too big. Ambrose is a decent enough batsmen, I seem to recall even old jazzhands Prior got a century on debut. Get involved!

[kevshat]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests

I am well aware it is not normally prudent to take a view in opposition to the tipping legend that is KevShat, but by the sound of what he has written above I dont think he will be too impressed by the bet I have spent the last few days lumping on. Top England Series Batsman: T Ambrose EACH WAY 40/1 @ Boylessports. Its more of a bet against the rest of the English batsmen I suppose. No guarantee that they will get all 3 tests, particularly Strauss, while there is no doubt Timmy A will get to play all 3 games. I am certainly not advocating backing him win only, but at Boylessports exceedingly generous 1/4 odds 3 places, 40/1 has got to be far too big. Ambrose is a decent enough batsmen, I seem to recall even old jazzhands Prior got a century on debut. Get involved!

I certainly wouldn't put anybody off that mate, in fact it's a huge price. I've no probs whatsoever with Ambrose's batting. I saw him live a few times last year and backed him for top bat a couple of times too. I do however have problems with his keeping and the logic behind his selection. 1st of all I'd have had Mustard in ahead of him but even before his broken nose it looked like he was only going to be carrying the drinks and I'm baffled as to how he can get into the side to replace Prior when 18 months ago Prior was keeping him out at Sussex :unsure. As for his batting abilities, absolutely no problem at all mate and I hope the 40/1 ew brings it's rewards, ideally 2nd behind Cook :lol:lol ;).

[kevshat]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests NZ win the toss and bat 1st. As expected they play both spinners.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests 282/6 Day 1. McCullum's wicket in the penultimate over just about shades it to England on this track. But with Ian Bell not batting (?don't know) first innings... about par. NZ will need Taylor and Vettori to press on tomorrow. How (series) going well, Kev :ok and six on day waltzes home. McCullum's batting is going to cause Vaughan (and the backroom boys) some head scratching. He's already lined up Hoggard. And Panesar. Fair weather predicted so should be interesting.

[swooperman]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Bells wrist isnt broken so he should be ok to bat but I guess the key will be if England can avoid him batting on day 2. From what I've seen NZ should be in a better position, then threw it away @ 191-5, then consolidated & then handed it back to England, although marginally. If England can get through Taylor & the tail & restrict them to around 330 then theyre in a good position IMO. It looks a placid track although there was early movement & I fancy Englands batsmen to outdo NZs against the home bowling. England will want to be 200-2ish at close of day 2 & will be looking for 400 by tea on day 3 & 450 by the close. If they get that 450 then thats a winning score in my book :ok

[kevshat]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests I agree Pie. That wicket makes it just about England's day to me. New Zealand will surely have wanted 400 minimum on this deck. Still got these two who can bat and could get them there but these 2 will have to score the baulk of any further runs. Unfortunately How couldn't get 8 more runs and bring the century bet in but he's almost half way to his series requirement. McCullum could be our nemesis like you say. Think it could be a cautious 1st session so going with this one. 10pts Day 2 Session 1 runs - Under 80.5 5/6 Sportingbet This is a really key session of play. The wicket of McCullum just brought the match back into England's favour I think and New Zealand will know the minimum they must make in this innings is 350 but they'd still want nearer 400. They also know that this partnership has to get as many of these runs as they can as there isn't a lot left to come in terms of batting. Therefore I expect Vettori and Taylor to play cautiously to start off with and get themselves in, see off the rest of the new ball and look to crack on just before lunch and after. I don't think that will yield 80 runs though in a session which is likely to be 26-27 overs. England will want to break through this partnership and get into the tail which with the game situation is likely to try and eek runs out rather than bludgeon them. Should England bowl NZ out in this 1st session that's 10 mins of the session gone so I like the unders to begin with on day 2.

[swooperman]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Someone had something on Vettori runs didnt they ?? Hes an irritating little fcuker :wall Kiwis are piling it on, around 350 still for 6 now. Long way to go but if they last until tea, which will be 450-475ish then it makes it hard for England to have time to win the game barring the wicket crumbling 2nd dig. Cant decide if the Kiwi batsmen were under-rated by me or is it the placid pitch. Looked at Taylor HS @ 7.2 on Betfair as well :@ Sitting tight, draw too short to trade for my bank

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests 105 runs in session :loon and Vettori (wonderful chap) moves on to 47 :ok. Draw now solid odds on. Agree, zilch value.

[davidmphill]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Vettori bet looking very tidy indeed PC.:ok

[xxdaxxbombxx]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Vettori looks like getting 125 in this innings alone

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Placid pitch, flacid England bowling I reckon, Swoops. No 'enforcer'. Letting Troy Cooley go was criminal. If England are 4 down by lunch (Pietersen c&b Vettori or c mid-on, bowled Vettori) then trouble.

[swooperman]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests Yeah, can see only one winner from here tbh, & thats NZ if England crumble. Shouldnt be anything but a draw from here tbh with the nature of the pitch & certainly there should be no danger of the follow on......but a 150 lead for NZ going day 4 could be interesting

[kevshat]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests This is turning into an intriguing test match. Looking at the previous scores here England have to get as close as possible else this could be Kandy revisited. I expect a solid morning session from England against the old ball and think Strauss should go well. 10pts A.Strauss 1st Inns Runs - Over 30.5 5/6 Blue Square Andrew Strauss goes into day 3 1 not out. I think he'll go ok in this innings. It looks to me as though the bookies still have Strauss' last 12 months in their minds but I think this is a rejuvenated Strauss and going into the game Michael Vaughan said Strauss had played some of the best shots he'd seen him play in the warm up match which suggests the left hander is in good nick. This has been his home ground for the last 6 weeks to 2 months or so and the pitch is literally dead. Strauss will never get a better chance to get some good test runs under his belt and I see him going well past 30 in this innings.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests 215/5. At tea. England batsmen hang around at the crease and eventually along comes the jaffa. Is this the track McCullum batted on? Time for first bets of game. 8pts NZ win @ 9/4 12pts England under 380.5 @ 5/6 Looks a long way off to me. Another wicket soon and 300 might be optimistic.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests

(Pietersen c&b Vettori or c mid-on, bowled Vettori) then trouble.

:ok Big Five 38-63-43-42-25. Talk about not going on with it. NZ a pretty tired bunch in the last hour. If they can nip in, refreshed, with early wkts tomorrow then Day 4 could very interesting. Tomorrow NZ setting England 320 to get in one hour and one day is a possibility. Bounce is getting variable and 2-spin option now looks like a good call. But umps not too trigger happy with LBWs. None so far. Betfair have NZ win at 5.8 - a big price. 3.0 in my book. Get on!

[kevshat]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests I'm with Pie there. I'd have NZ 5/2 tops to win from here. A quick wicket in the morning after England went absolutely nowhere on day 3 and NZ may go favourites. 5pts NZ to win 1st test 9/2 Sportingbet Only one side can win the test match from here and that's New Zealand. Sure the draw should be favourite but it shouldn't be as short as it is. At the minute the pitch is dead but history shows that it isn't easy to bat on during days 4 and 5. England still trail by 184 runs after a slow day 3 where they only scored 199 runs. This partnership will have to reduce most of England's arrears because the likes of Ryan Sidebottom, Steve Harmison and Monty Panesar won't find it easy to hold out on this pitch. When they bat again New Zealand always have the option of sticking McCullum and Oram up the order to get some quick runs and increase the lead which they'll surely have now and they could give England a tough 100 overs or so to bat against 2 spinners sniffing blood on a worn pitch. England showed in Sri Lanka just before xmas that they aren't always the best in such situations and at 9/2 NZ have to be value here to win the test and it's well worth a medium stake.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests NZ first innings lead 122. 50 overs to go today. Will McCullum open as in ODIs? NZ got to be pretty special to win from here.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests 177 ahead at tea. 3.00 an over stuff. Get on with it you goofs! Hope Oram or McCullum front up next... can do without Sinclair stodge at this stage. 29 overs left today. @ 4 an over = 293 ahead. Plan should be @ 5 leaving them at 322 ahead and an overnight declaration. Won't bloody happen of course.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests WOW! I love Test cricket. Just as you think x is likely to happen, along comes y. NZ 269 ahead and if I was Vettori I'd get a back massage, 10 hours sleep and declare 30 mins before the presumption tomorrow. 269 last day just absolutely right that England would have to go for it. Yet challenging declarations have slipped off the radar in recent years. NZ 4.6 Eng 7.6 Draw 1.48 OK, lads, what's going to happen tomorrow? Lovely day and 90 (+) overs to go.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests It's a too hopeful presumption he will declare. I meant 'resumption tommorrow'. But, does Dan have the gumption?

[meatman]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests

WOW! I love Test cricket. Just as you think x is likely to happen, along comes y.

aye I've gotta say that was quite remarkable cricket :loon All results possible on day 5 , the first hour will be crucial.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: NZ v England - 3 Tests The modern trend is to make sure you can't lose before declaring. Why Dan should declare overnight: 1) Box office. Punters don't get to see a Day 5 where 4 results are possible too often. The 'ODI crowd' will think 269 in 50 overs is possible, in 90 is a joke, easy. But here are different laws/nuances. Test crowds are way down in NZ and this would do something for the game. 2) Batting on doesn't make much sense. They could scamble around for 40 mins and add 25 or so. Edges and heaves. To do this would probably 'make the game safe' for NZ. Then Vaughan and co will sit on their bat from the start. 3) Pitch getting lower. Umps (good throughout) are starting to give LBWs. 4) Attack. 3 slips and gully. See what happens. Oram can close down scoring if things start to go wrong. And Vettori is the master. Throw down the gauntlet. If he does, betfair will kick in very differently to the draw hot favourite. 269 is enough, Dan. ;)