simonpearce Posted November 1, 2007 Share Posted November 1, 2007 Hi al i am new here but i like what i am reading. You guys seem pretty clued up so I would appreciate an opinion on a system I have just started using. Well it's actually a choice I need to make regarding 4 variants of the same system. With regards to the bets i will be choosing i am looking at a mix of footy accumulators generating odds of circa 8-1 or/and trebles or quads on Ladbrokes crazy goals ( 2-3 goals per game usually 6.75-1 for treb or circa 13-1 for quads). I will of course be using every single football league at my disposal to choose my teams. Now the system runs a bit like this( I have spreadsheets in excel) starting with a 50p stake i bet on one of the variants mentioned above and then for each progressive bet i bet the previous stake + 30% therefore bet 2 would be 65p with a total for both bets coming to £1.15 and so on and so forth until I win. This would allow me 21 bets with a total cost of £241.99 for all combined bets and my final stake being £53.23 but based on odds of 8-1 this would pay out £506.05 including my last stake so therefore i would win just over 100% of my total stake.I aim to keep going until i have £500 in the bank and then double the initial stake...am I crazy? I mean i am confident of pulling of an 8-1 with accu's or goal crazy within 21 chances. Your thoughts please good people of the world. Oh and thats just one formula, i have slightly more aggressive and less aggressive formulas also...hence i need to make a decision on which one to do. I ran a 50% increase based on the same bank but this only gave me 13 chances to have a win. I won after my 6th attempt and was £20 up although i onyl invested £10 but i feel i ought to be less aggressive in the appraoch and i am now 3 bets into the 30% formula. Thanks and hope that made sense. Oh and please i know of the Martingale system...this is not it but it is however based on similar principles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? :welcome to PL Simon. :ok I'm sure our systems guys will be along soon to give you their opinion. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phantomDude Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? lol @ Paul Ross. You're exhibiting symptoms of that famous malaise; The Gambler's Fallacy The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the "gambler's fallacy." Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler's fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes. For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. Hucksters sell "guaranteed" get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler's fallacy. None of them work. If you don't believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic. A common gamblers' fallacy called 'the doctrine of the maturity of the chances' (or 'Monte Carlo fallacy') falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of 'systems' have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler's neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. -- Encyclopedia Britannica (look under "gambling.") No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... -- Probability and Measure (page 94, second edition) by Patrick Billingsley The number of 'guaranteed' betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis. -- The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein Taken from http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html The important part of that is this: "No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise..." This is open to debate, why would any of us be here if that were so? However, change one word in that sentence, and you have an undeniable truth: "No STAKING system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise..." The Martingale system is known to be fatally flawed, and unworkable in the real world. Why create a system that's based on it's principles (even if it isn't *exactly* the same)? Take tossing a coin. Odds of you guessing right are evens (2.0). If someone offers you odds of 1.9 for guessing right, you will never ever ever ever make money, no matter what way you organise your stakes. The odds being paid out on your winnings aren't fair, they don't represent "true value" (this practice is called overrounding). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 2, 2007 Author Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Thanks for the coment. But i am not just leaving it to chance that it ought to come in beacause the odds state that they should, i am aware that if i were to flick a coin it's eventually goin gto hav ea run of however many ( No wins) and empty my bank so to speak. What I am saying here is i am really placing my trust in my own judgement to pick a winning accumulator once in 21 chances. I think by really having a look at the latest info and utilising all the different leagues iI ought to be able to hit consistantly. Of course i need to hav ea goal, can;t do it indefinatley as there will come a time(in a far away future) when i do not hit for whatever reason withn the allocated 21 chances. But if i can win back my inital investment then i stand to loose nothing and if i make sure i take a cut of the future winnings and spend elsewhere surely i stand to make a profit. I know it's not fool proof but show me a system that is. I might stay away from goal crazy though as that is leaving things totally to chance. With regards to the Martingale, it's very loosley based on the principles but i am not bettin gon evens here but 8-1. With a 30% increase with each progressive stake it will each time i win a bet pay out circa 100% more than my overall combined bets to that point. I would be happy to post what i am going to bet and how much i stake etc if anyone thinks it worthwhile. I'm no tsure how to go about it though and if anyone would be interested to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phantomDude Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Thanks for the coment. What I am saying here is i am really placing my trust in my own judgement to pick a winning accumulator once in 21 chances. I think by really having a look at the latest info and utilising all the different leagues iI ought to be able to hit consistantly. You'd be surprised how long your losing streaks can be if you're backing at odds around 8. I did a quick analysis of matches where the odds were between 7 and 10. In the first 300 or so results, there was a losing streak of *64* matches. And that's just in the first 300 results out of almost 5000. I can assure you that a losing streak of a mere 21 matches is not in a far away future. Out of 4981 matches where the odds were in this range, 462 were winners. This means that there was a (approximately) 462/4981=.092 probability that any match was a winner. That's about 1 in 11. But don't think that every 21 matches you bet on where the odds are in this range you will win once or twice! Because the odds are so high, the variance is high, and you will *very* soon hit a losing run of longer than 21 matches. You might counter by saying that you expect your picks to be more accurate than random picks, but even still, you would need a crystal ball to get to the point where losing streaks of longer than 21 matches weren't happening at the odds you were betting. lol, I'm just going through the results of my analysis, and there are *so* many losing streaks longer than 21! Never mind a losing streak of 64, on the second page of results (300 results in every page) I just found a losing streak of 113!!! If I were you, I'd forget about fancy staking plans and accumulators, just bet small amounts, single bets, level stakes, and concentrate on increasing the yield your bets return (ie the ratio of your total winnings to your total stakes). Oh, and *definitely* study Variance. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 2, 2007 Author Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Well put but i am not dettered though I might consider lowering the eodds to 4-1 as thi swill still generate a 50% profit. Anway i have started already and i am fairly confident i can do well form this. I wil lbe posting my picks and stakes form now on so anyone who chooses to can monitor. I got £200 invested to play with this system. I am currently £20 up. Each time i win it's back to the start..the inital stake. This is me looking fo rmy 2nd win. It's bet number 4, started with an inital 50p bet which will progressivley increase 30% with each bet i need to make. Bet number 4 Stake £1.10 Over all stake £3.10 Selections for tonight to win. Chester, Aldershot and Swansea...odds 8.1-1 form Ladbrokes. Wish me luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Good luck, but to me it already looks like there isnt much science to this. You have picked 3 games from tonight. Have you done this cos the odds are around the 8/1 mark??? If you want a good treble system look at Fleet's Trebles system and he has a very good success rate. All the best though, i wont cast judgement as i think we all fall foul of the Gamblers Fallacy. And i am using an adjusted Martingale System on one of my system this year. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phantomDude Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Best of luck from me too. Whatever way it works out for you, enjoy your punting! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 2, 2007 Author Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Thanks for your support. Not much science to it, study form etc.Thats all. I usually use all the world leagues but these 3 picks just happen to be here. Good luck to all of you folks out there to and i will hav ea look at fleets trebles..not had much chance to look around the posts as yet. If anyone can come up with an easier way to mak emy odds of 8-1 rahter than using footy accus i would be interested to hear and as i said i might drop down to looking for odds of 4-1 or 6-1 as the would still yeild a 50%-75% profit anyway. We will see. keep watching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? It's true that systems like this will not necessarily lead to ruin if the individual bets are well-chosen, but they will do worse in the long run than a more normal staking system where you don't vary your stake according to previous results. Staking is about balancing expected profit and risk. Assuming a bet is good value then I can increase my expected profit by increasing my stake, but if I increase the stake too much, then obviously my risk will become far too large. Now if I make good value bets, then in the short term I may well be unlucky and lose money, but after a large number of bets I can be fairly confident that I'll be ahead. The problem with staking systems that vary the stake a lot is that the bets I stake a lot on will be far more important to my overall profit than the bets I stake a little on. This means that I'll have to make more bets before I can be confident of being in profit, since this will largely depend on how well I do on the relatively small number of large-stake bets. In turn, this means that to have the same level of risk (of losing my entire bank, for example), I'll have to use a lower average stake if I vary my stake a lot, which means that for the same level of risk I'll make a smaller average profit. [by the way, I'm not talking about varying the stake according to the merits of the individual bets: there's nothing wrong with that.] Actually, as well as your "Martingale-like" staking plan, this also applies to making multiple bets. If you bet in doubles/trebles, etc., then to keep the same level of risk as betting in singles, you need to reduce your stakes so much that your average profit will reduce. In a sense, multiple bets are just another way of varying your stakes according to previous results. If you bet on X and Y in a double, and X's match finishes before Y's match starts, then essentially you have decided to put a big bet on Y if X wins, but to bet nothing on Y if X doesn't win. Of course, if the matches happen at the same time, then it's not really "previous" results, but the mathematical point about risk and expected profit remains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? I've never gone 21 bets without a win.... there might be something in his idea. I've often thought about upping the stakes when I've lost a treble, but it goes against the theories of my treble system, which are "rewarding a winning run more than a losing run punishes". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 2, 2007 Author Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Well we will see how far i go with it but i am pretty confident that I can recoup my £200 fairly quickly. After which i will take my £200 and play with the winnings and see how i go. I hav eto say i can't ever recall going 21 nets without a win either and if my reward is circa a 100% profit each time i get a win i ought to give this ago. I would like to show you all the spreadsheet formulas to view as there are 4 variations with a 50% per bet being the most aggressive. They make interesting viewing but i don't think i am allowed to post. Aw well. Keep your eyes on the prize people! Thanks for all your reponses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 3, 2007 Author Share Posted November 3, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Okay bet number 4 did not come in last night. Swansea let me down while chester and aldershot both won for me. So i am now on to bet number 5, i will be running a few bets today but this is bet 5. I am now staking £1.43 and all the combined bets now total £4.52. My 3 bets for this part of today are CSKA Moscow, Celtic and Man Utd, i just have a feeling about Man Utd......odds just over 7-1. Wish me luck. Here is my formula i am working with at the moment. Stake A Combined stake X6 x7 x8 x9 x10 £0.50 £0.50 £3.00 £3.50 £4.00 £4.50 £5.00 £0.65 £1.15 £3.90 £4.55 £5.20 £5.85 £6.50 £0.85 £2.00 £5.07 £5.92 £6.76 £7.61 £8.45 £1.10 £3.09 £6.59 £7.69 £8.79 £9.89 £10.99 £1.43 £4.52 £8.57 £10.00 £11.42 £12.85 £14.28 £1.86 £6.38 £11.14 £13.00 £14.85 £16.71 £18.56 £2.41 £8.79 £14.48 £16.89 £19.31 £21.72 £24.13 £3.14 £11.93 £18.82 £21.96 £25.10 £28.24 £31.37 £4.08 £16.01 £24.47 £28.55 £32.63 £36.71 £40.79 £5.30 £21.31 £31.81 £37.12 £42.42 £47.72 £53.02 £6.89 £28.20 £41.36 £48.25 £55.14 £62.04 £68.93 £8.96 £37.16 £53.76 £62.73 £71.69 £80.65 £89.61 £11.65 £48.81 £69.89 £81.54 £93.19 £104.84 £116.49 £15.14 £63.96 £90.86 £106.01 £121.15 £136.29 £151.44 £19.69 £83.64 £118.12 £137.81 £157.50 £177.18 £196.87 £25.59 £109.24 £153.56 £179.15 £204.74 £230.34 £255.93 £33.27 £142.51 £199.62 £232.90 £266.17 £299.44 £332.71 £43.25 £185.76 £259.51 £302.76 £346.02 £389.27 £432.52 £56.23 £241.99 £337.37 £393.59 £449.82 £506.05 £562.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 3, 2007 Author Share Posted November 3, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Okay the last bet did not hit due to that very late goal form Arsenal. So next up is my 6th bet. Stake £1.86 Total outlay £6.38 Selections to win: Villa, Chelsea, Hamilton, Rotherham and Stevenage. Odds 11-1 Wish me luck folks!! 14 bets left ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 3, 2007 Author Share Posted November 3, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Okay...close but no cigar. Hamilton let me down. So i move on to my 7th bet. Stake £2.41 Overall total stake £8.79 Tonights selection to win. Milan, PSV, Real Madrid and Leon odds just over 8-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Okay the bet did not come in so i move on to my 8th bet...13 bets left. Stake £3.14 Overall Stake £11.93 My selections to win: Roma, Napoli, Man city And Galatasary....odds 6.3-1 This will be my last bet until Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? I'd like to offer my take. Accumulators don't pay. Why? Because the public is stupid. Take it from me; I'm from the U.S. and we ****ing idiots have elected George Bush not once, but twice. Yes, I'm drinking some really fine Scotch atm. Bear with me. I bet mainly overs. I'm pretty good at it. And yet, I've been going through just a horrible run. Why? I'm using the same general criteria, have leaned on the same "feel" during my poor 42% monthlong run as I had when I was hitting 73% over two and a half months. The reason is that the results are essentially random, because there are so many variables to take into account in any one occurrence. Start with the lines. The books have already considered the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams, the missings, the injuries, the trends and so forth. Let's assume, for the moment, that the books always do their job perfectly and split the public on every bet. OK. Every bet is still a coin flip. So...accumulators are silly because they ask you to predict the outcomes of three random events (2x2x2) but don't pay 8 to 1. It's that simple. One team will always **** you up, because events are random. You can have the perfect read on a sporting event, and then somebody misses a sitter. Game over. I am not a longtime punter. I've been doing it for only two years. But I have learned one valuable lesson -- actually I have been taught a lesson repeatedly on the need for money management but have failed that lesson over and over again -- and that is that if events are random, to succeed you must not bet with the public. The reason is not my cynical joke about the public being wrong, although they are -- the actual reason is that the odds given when the public is all over a game don't represent the actual odds of the public's expectation being correct. In short, if the odds are 1 to 1 of Man U winning tomorrow and the book pays 1 to 2, you may well win tomorrow but over time you will run out of money. I am having much more success since I started throwing out all lines that are against me from the start. Last year I was in love with teams like Crewe for their overs ability, but as time went on the lines went from 1.98 to 1.9 to 1.8 to 1.7, and even though they were still playing to overs most of the time it no longer paid to bet on them. So what I do now is when I'm looking for a value bet I don't even look at a game unless the odds are even. There are exceptions: If I find two teams playing each other that have each played to 80 percent overs and the books haven't caught up with this reality, I'll play it at 1.6. Over a period of a couple of months I started tracking various leagues that I bet on...just looking to see how the most and least "public" games ended up. And what I found was that each finished about 50-50. That is, if you put your money on a given league's most favored result on a particular Saturday, you finished about 50-50. And if you put your money on a given league's least favored result on a particular Saturday, you finished about 50-50. The difference is that in the first case you won $50 on your $100 bet, and in the second case you won $116 on your $100 bet. Which do you think will generate profit over the long term? Going to refresh my glass. I'll leave you with this nugget of wisdom. One of the things I tracked this year was in baseball, where once a day or every couple of days, there's a matchup in baseball where the home team has a great pitcher against an away team that is just awful, and the line on the game is +200 or more...meaning that the book will pay you $200 for a $100 bet if the dog wins. In some cases these lines were as high as +300...a win of $300 on a $100 bet. Yes, the favorites did better than 50-50 on these games. The dogs finished the season 55-104 in these games, but the profit on $100 bets was $1,738. There is no system that will guarantee a profit. But any 'system' that relies on accumulators and the like are guaranteed losers over time. If every event has a 50-50 chance of occurring and your book pays you 40 for every time you win, you will be out of the game eventually...guaranteed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 5, 2007 Share Posted November 5, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? I think the problem is that he is doing a bet nearly every day. Take the weekend, sort out the best bets, rather than lots of bets. It's a marathon not a sprint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonpearce Posted November 5, 2007 Author Share Posted November 5, 2007 Re: What about this as a possible system? Well i just placed bet number 9. Man City, Chelsea and Real Madrid to win. just over 6-1 No more bets until this weekend. Stake £5.30 To Date Total stake:£21.31 12 bets left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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