muppet77 Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression h a supremacy bet odds result profit Naval Sp Braga 0.87 h 4.30 d -1.00 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Liberec Slavia Praha -1.07 a 2.46 d -1.00 Trnava Nitra -0.02 a 4.10 h -1.00 Niort Nantes -0.92 a 2.02 a 0.97 BOTH HOMES AWAYS bets392 bets 219 bets 173 wins 192 wins 117 wins 75 strike 49% strike 53% strike 43% profit 34.17 profit -2.45 profit 36.62 yield 8.7% yield -1.1% yield 21.2% av odds 2.21 av odds 1.89 av odds 2.82 exp wins 177.4 exp wins 116.1 exp wins 61.3 exp loss 214.6 exp loss 102.9 exp loss 111.7 act wins 192 act wins 117 act wins 75 act losses 200 act losses 102 act losses 98 wins ahead 14.6 wins ahead 0.9 wins ahead 13.7 chi 86.2% chi 10.0% chi 97.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression kick off h a supremacy bet odds 18:05 Auxerre Nice 1.25 h 2.20 18:05 Nancy Amiens 2.03 h 1.42 19:30 Messina Vicenza 0.97 h 1.78 19:30 Rimini Piacenza 0.84 h 1.68 19:30 Triestina Bari 0.82 h 2.26 19:45 Nott m Forest Oldham 0.89 h 1.70 kick off h a supremacy bet odds 19:30 Avellino Ravenna -0.07 a 3.60 19:30 Lecce Grosseto -0.37 a 8.80 19:30 Pisa Modena -0.56 a 4.50 19:30 Spezia Brescia -0.40 a 2.20 19:30 Treviso Frosinone -0.69 a 3.30 20:00 Marseille Metz -0.96 a 7.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression goons - saturdays picks can be done friday night. i do need data from previous games and the odds need to settle on BF so they are accurate and have a low overround. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression goons - saturdays picks can be done friday night. i do need data from previous games and the odds need to settle on BF so they are accurate and have a low overround. Cool, whatever you can do to help me there would be most appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression Hey muppet, do these French games fit into your system as actually cup games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression not strictly as i only backtested league matches. however the matches are within the same division (apart from nancy - amiens but nancy are picked to win and are a division above) and so i will let them stand. i actually had a couple of picks from the polish and german cup but didn't realise the frenchies were cup as well. in the future i will not select any cup games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression ...unless they all win tonight!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression :rollin:rollin:rollin no, seriously the stats used are from their own division, so inter divisional comparison (??!!) is not possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 31, 2007 Author Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield a bit of a nightmare amongst 4 red cards. h a supremacy bet odds result profit Auxerre Nice 1.25 h 2.20 d -1.00 Nancy Amiens 2.03 h 1.42 h 0.40 Messina Vicenza 0.97 h 1.78 a -1.00 Rimini Piacenza 0.84 h 1.68 a -1.00 Triestina Bari 0.82 h 2.26 d -1.00 Nott m Forest Oldham 0.89 h 1.70 d -1.00 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Avellino Ravenna -0.07 a 3.60 h -1.00 Lecce Grosseto -0.37 a 8.80 d -1.00 Pisa Modena -0.56 a 4.50 d -1.00 Spezia Brescia -0.40 a 2.20 h -1.00 Treviso Frosinone -0.69 a 3.30 h -1.00 Marseille Metz -0.96 a 7.00 d -1.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 31, 2007 Author Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield kick off h a supremacy bet odds 18:45 Grasshoppers Zurich Luzern 1.48 h 1.94 19:00 Almeria Zaragoza 1.32 h 2.80 19:00 Betis Osasuna 1.43 h 2.24 19:00 Villarreal Levante 1.67 h 1.33 19:30 Inter Genoa 1.23 h 1.36 19:30 Juventus Empoli 0.81 h 1.40 19:30 Odense Bröndby Kobenhavn 1.19 h 2.16 19:30 Palermo Parma 1.52 h 1.64 19:30 Reggina Livorno 0.83 h 1.97 19:30 Udinese Torino 1.00 h 1.94 21:00 Ath Madrid Sevilla 1.42 h 2.38 21:30 Atlético Paranaense Gremio 1.54 h 2.26 23:45 Goias Vasco da Gama 1.82 h 2.14 23:45 Nautico Recife Santos 0.83 h 2.57 01:00 Toluca U.N.A.M. 1.36 h 1.76 kick off h a supremacy bet odds 13:00 Drava Ptuj Koper -0.63 a 2.66 17:00 Sogndal Bodo Glimt -0.29 a 2.62 18:45 Sion FC Basel FC -1.01 a 2.04 18:45 St. Gallen Zurich FC -0.58 a 2.04 19:00 La Coruna Mallorca -0.38 a 3.20 19:00 Getafe Ath Bilbao -0.39 a 3.75 20:00 Valencia Real Madrid -0.51 a 2.82 22:30 Atlético Mineiro Parana Clube -0.83 a 5.30 22:00 Cruz Azul Tecos -0.37 a 7.80 23:45 Flamengo Corinthians -0.76 a 5.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield a bit of a nightmare amongst 4 red cards. h a supremacy bet odds result profit Auxerre Nice 1.25 h 2.20 d -1.00 Nancy Amiens 2.03 h 1.42 h 0.40 Messina Vicenza 0.97 h 1.78 a -1.00 Rimini Piacenza 0.84 h 1.68 a -1.00 Triestina Bari 0.82 h 2.26 d -1.00 Nott m Forest Oldham 0.89 h 1.70 d -1.00 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Avellino Ravenna -0.07 a 3.60 h -1.00 Lecce Grosseto -0.37 a 8.80 d -1.00 Pisa Modena -0.56 a 4.50 d -1.00 Spezia Brescia -0.40 a 2.20 h -1.00 Treviso Frosinone -0.69 a 3.30 h -1.00 Marseille Metz -0.96 a 7.00 d -1.00 Bit of a sickener but these things happen I guess and when you're betting at the odds we are on this system it's all the more likely. Acts as timely reminder not to become greedy and increase stakes too soon as your bank goes up. By the way muppet, you do realise your betting the odd cup game again don't you!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 31, 2007 Author Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield which ones are cup games mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield which ones are cup games mate? OB Odense, not that it matters....what is going on all of a sudden:sad All that lovely profit from Friday onwards has been pretty much eaten away if results carry on like they are tonight. Going to need one of the big big prices to come in and it's not nice relying on those is it:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 31, 2007 Author Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield 5 red cards in 16 games so far strikes me as being amazing.....or am i just looking for excuses?!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 31, 2007 Author Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield 4 out of the last 5 homes are needed and 1 out of the last 3 aways needed to break even...................... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield 5 red cards in 16 games so far strikes me as being amazing.....or am i just looking for excuses?!! No, I don't think it's a question of looking for excuses, and from looking at the backtesting this has to be a blip....it must be!!! Had such hih hopes so fingers crossed the worm turns soon enough:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield 4 out of the last 5 homes are needed and 1 out of the last 3 aways needed to break even...................... I didn't realise it was quite that close actually although I did get slightly worse odds than you. Fingers crossed then. Come on Atletico!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield 4 out of the last 5 homes are needed and 1 out of the last 3 aways needed to break even...................... Wow.....didn't we just get that away game we needed haha!! Nice nice win there and I have to admit to fearing the worst again as Cruz pulled level in the 2nd. :nana Can we even end with a profit for the day after that dreadful start haha!!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 1, 2007 Author Share Posted November 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield get in! i always work out roughly how many games i need to break even, which i will post in future as it is exciting to see how th eday is progressing - especially on a saturday in front of Jeff Stelling and soccer saurday! on the day: homes -16%, aways +22%, both -1%. lucky i am just betting aways! h a supremacy bet odds result profit Grasshoppers Zurich Luzern 1.48 h 1.94 d -1.00 Almeria Zaragoza 1.32 h 2.80 a -1.00 Betis Osasuna 1.43 h 2.24 a -1.00 Villarreal Levante 1.67 h 1.33 h 0.31 Inter Genoa 1.23 h 1.36 h 0.34 Juventus Empoli 0.81 h 1.40 h 0.38 Odense Bröndby Kobenhavn 1.19 h 2.16 d -1.00 Palermo Parma 1.52 h 1.64 d -1.00 Reggina Livorno 0.83 h 1.97 a -1.00 Udinese Torino 1.00 h 1.94 h 0.89 Ath Madrid Sevilla 1.42 h 2.38 h 1.31 Atlético Paranaense Gremio 1.54 h 2.26 h 1.20 Goias Vasco da Gama 1.82 h 2.14 h 1.08 Nautico Recife Santos 0.83 h 2.57 a -1.00 Toluca U.N.A.M. 1.36 h 1.76 d -1.00 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Drava Ptuj Koper -0.63 a 2.66 h -1.00 Sogndal Bodo Glimt -0.29 a 2.62 h -1.00 Sion FC Basel FC -1.01 a 2.04 d -1.00 St. Gallen Zurich FC -0.58 a 2.04 a 0.99 La Coruna Mallorca -0.38 a 3.20 d -1.00 Getafe Ath Bilbao -0.39 a 3.75 h -1.00 Valencia Real Madrid -0.51 a 2.82 a 1.73 Atlético Mineiro Parana Clube -0.83 a 5.30 d -1.00 Cruz Azul Tecos -0.37 a 7.80 a 6.46 Flamengo Corinthians -0.76 a 5.20 h -1.00 BOTH HOMES AWAYS bets429 bets 240 bets 189 wins 203 wins 125 wins 78 strike 47% strike 52% strike 41% profit 23.26 profit -9.53 profit 32.79 yield 5.4% yield -4.0% yield 17.4% av odds 2.22 av odds 1.88 av odds 2.86 exp wins 193.3 exp wins 127.3 exp wins 66.0 exp loss 235.7 exp loss 112.7 exp loss 123.0 act wins 203 act wins 125 act wins 78 act losses 226 act losses 115 act losses 111 wins ahead 9.7 wins ahead -2.3 wins ahead 12.0 chi 65.1% chi 23.6% chi 93.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 1, 2007 Author Share Posted November 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 173 bets 21% yield kick off h a supremacy bet odds 22:30 Internacional Sport Recife 1.46 h 1.63 kick off h a supremacy bet odds 21:00 Espanol Murcia -0.32 a 7.40 22:30 Botafogo Cruzeiro -0.77 a 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomica Posted November 1, 2007 Share Posted November 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield But unfortunatelly Goias didn't won. I know because I needed that win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 1, 2007 Author Share Posted November 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield i was wondering what you have to do to get on the PL scroller? +17% yield from 189 bets?!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomica Posted November 1, 2007 Share Posted November 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield Excellent work! I'm only angry because Goias lead 1:0 and then screw my big combo. Nothing more! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 2, 2007 Author Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield h a supremacy bet odds result profit Internacional Sport Recife 1.46 h 1.63 d -1.00 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Espanol Murcia -0.32 a 7.40 d -1.00 Botafogo Cruzeiro -0.77 a 3.05 h -1.00 no winners but the murcia game was 0-0 so that was fantastic value at odds of 7.40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 2, 2007 Author Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield i mean fantastic value DURING the game! (obviously on th efinal whistle it was rubbish value!!) :rollin friday's bets: kick off h a supremacy bet odds 18:00 Trabzonspor Ankaraspor 0.93 h 1.61 19:00 Reims Amiens 1.54 h 2.15 19:30 Nantes Ajaccio 1.10 h 1.54 19:30 Willem II VVV Venlo 1.00 h 1.66 19:45 Bohemians Dublin Longford Town 1.46 h 1.58 19:45 Derry City Shamrock Rovers 1.23 h 2.22 19:45 Swansea Gillingham 1.08 h 1.52 kick off h a supremacy bet odds 17:00 Offenbach Greuther Furth -0.25 a 2.42 19:00 Brest Sedan -0.13 a 3.70 19:00 Chateauroux Angers -1.04 a 4.70 19:00 Gueugnon Troyes -0.14 a 2.58 19:00 Libourne Boulogne -1.13 a 3.60 19:30 Cottbus Schalke 04 -1.00 a 1.76 19:30 Mouscron Standard -0.78 a 2.40 19:45 Lincoln Chester -1.34 a 2.58 19:45 Waterford Galway United -0.87 a 3.60 20:30 Porto Belenenses -0.49 a 16.00 the porto game is my highest odds so far. 15/1 :eek i expect 5/7 homes and 4/10 aways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield Alright Muppet Just curious but when do you play these? Recently I can never get these odds and on some they are considerably worse. Just the one bet today where I managed to get a point better...all the rest were ranging from mildly worse to considerably shortened. Of course Belenenses I got the same but then us followers here are probably the only people betting against Porto haha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 2, 2007 Author Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield when do i 'play' them? i bet just before i release the bets to the general public!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 2, 2007 Share Posted November 2, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield when do i 'play' them? i bet just before i release the bets to the general public!!! Ah right. Betfair is just very volatile and moves quicker than I do when someone mentions beer! Hope it didn't come off the wrong way, was just curious and thank you once again for doing this. See we are off to an ok start today so fingers crossed this is the beggining of worm turning.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 3, 2007 Author Share Posted November 3, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield h a supremacy bet odds result profit Trabzonspor Ankaraspor 0.93 h 1.61 h 0.58 Reims Amiens 1.54 h 2.15 d -1.00 Nantes Ajaccio 1.10 h 1.54 h 0.51 Willem II VVV Venlo 1.00 h 1.66 a -1.00 Bohemians Dublin Longford Town 1.46 h 1.58 d -1.00 Derry City Shamrock Rovers 1.23 h 2.22 d -1.00 Swansea Gillingham 1.08 h 1.52 d -1.00 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Offenbach Greuther Furth -0.25 a 2.42 a 1.35 Brest Sedan -0.13 a 3.70 d -1.00 Chateauroux Angers -1.04 a 4.70 d -1.00 Gueugnon Troyes -0.14 a 2.58 d -1.00 Libourne Boulogne -1.13 a 3.60 d -1.00 Cottbus Schalke 04 -1.00 a 1.76 h -1.00 Mouscron Standard -0.78 a 2.40 d -1.00 Lincoln Chester -1.34 a 2.58 a 1.50 Waterford Galway United -0.87 a 3.60 d -1.00 Porto Belenenses -0.49 a 16.00 d -1.00 a poor day's work. could there BE any more draws??!! i suppose on the up side all those high priced away bets came very close. (that's my spin on it) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 3, 2007 Author Share Posted November 3, 2007 Re: Regression Digression: 189 bets +17% yield saturday and sun morning homes: kick off h a supremacy bet odds 12:00 Oftasspor Konyaspor 1.07 h 2.46 14:30 Leverkusen Bielefeld 0.88 h 1.57 14:30 Bayern Munich Ein Frankfurt 1.93 h 1.22 14:30 Nurnberg Stuttgart 0.87 h 2.64 14:30 Hamburg Hertha 1.18 h 1.67 14:45 Slavia Praha Teplice 0.86 h 1.94 15:00 Accrington Notts County 1.73 h 2.22 15:00 Albinoleffe Triestina 1.35 h 1.75 15:00 Ascoli Treviso 2.83 h 1.77 15:00 Barnsley Preston 1.32 h 2.62 15:00 Brighton Luton 1.45 h 2.20 15:00 Bristol Rvs Bournemouth 1.21 h 2.06 15:00 Dunfermline Livingston 1.23 h 2.06 15:00 East Fife Elgin 1.09 h 1.42 15:00 Forfar East Stirling 0.83 h 2.26 15:00 Frosinone Piacenza 0.89 h 2.06 15:00 Fulham Reading 1.02 h 2.46 15:00 Grosseto Avellino 1.45 h 1.75 15:00 Leyton Orient Oldham 1.11 h 2.18 15:00 Mantova Rimini 1.03 h 2.12 15:00 Morton Stirling 0.87 h 1.89 15:00 Motherwell St Mirren 0.81 h 1.90 15:00 Plymouth Sheffield Weds 0.81 h 1.98 15:00 Rangers Inverness C 1.44 h 1.24 15:00 Ravenna Spezia 1.28 h 2.37 15:00 Rotherham Grimsby 2.11 h 1.79 15:00 Scunthorpe Crystal Palace 1.31 h 2.34 15:00 Walsall Cheltenham 1.63 h 1.89 15:00 Watford West Brom 1.46 h 2.18 15:00 Zaglebie Sosnowiec Widzew Lodz 1.11 h 2.55 16:30 Nitra Dubnica 0.80 h 1.62 16:30 Kosice FC Zlate Moravce 1.47 h 1.46 16:30 Ruzomberok Zilina 1.19 h 3.55 16:45 Basel FC Grasshoppers Zurich 0.93 h 1.47 16:45 Zurich FC Sion FC 1.85 h 1.52 17:00 Aalesund Rosenborg Trondheim 1.01 h 3.35 17:00 Granada 74 Elche 0.81 h 2.42 17:00 Lilleström Sandefjord 1.97 h 1.26 17:30 Tenerife Las Palmas 2.38 h 1.88 19:00 Anderlecht Westerlo 0.87 h 1.40 19:00 AZ Alkmaar Nijmegen 1.77 h 1.45 19:00 Club Brugge Waregem 1.54 h 1.40 19:00 Germinal Roeselare 1.11 h 1.76 19:00 Lyon Valenciennes 1.91 h 1.42 19:00 Nice Sochaux 0.83 h 2.20 19:30 Milan Torino 0.81 h 1.33 19:30 Le Havre Guingamp 1.02 h 1.64 20:10 Fluminense Nautico Recife 1.33 h 1.92 23:00 Monterey Atlante 0.87 h 2.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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