Laying Correct Scores

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores UEFA cup games now added:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ita	05-Dec	Inter v Lazio	2-1	9.50	Sportingbet	9.20	-3.2%	1.122			82.00	0.00	64.50
Ita	05-Dec	Roma v Cagliari	2-1	10.00	Sportingbet	9.60	-4.0%	1.116			86.00	0.00	64.50
Spa	05-Dec	Osasuna v Sevilla	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.00	0.0%	1.167			60.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Basel v Brann	3-1	12.00	BlueSq	11.00	-8.3%	1.100			100.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Dinamo Zagreb v Hamburg	1-1	6.50	Canbet	7.00	7.7%	1.167			60.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Everton v Zenit St Petersburg	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	9.20	8.2%	1.122			82.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	FC Kobenhavn v Atl Madrid	0-1	7.50	Sportingbet	7.60	1.3%	1.152			66.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Mlada Boleslav v AEK	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	9.80	3.2%	1.114			88.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Nurnberg v AZ Alkmaar	1-1	7.00	BlueSq	7.00	0.0%	1.167			60.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Panathinaikos v Lokomotiv	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	10.50	10.5%	1.105			95.00	0.00	64.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Villarreal v Elfsborg	3-0	8.00	Stan James	7.60	-5.0%	1.152			66.00	0.00	64.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Just one score ruining the full house - but 10/11 gives 35pts profit.

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ita	05-Dec	Inter v Lazio	2-1	9.50	Sportingbet	9.20	-3.2%	1.122	2-0	W	82.00	9.50	74.00
Ita	05-Dec	Roma v Cagliari	2-1	10.00	Sportingbet	9.60	-4.0%	1.116	3-0	W	86.00	9.50	83.50
Spa	05-Dec	Osasuna v Sevilla	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.00	0.0%	1.167	1-1	L	60.00	(60.00)	23.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Basel v Brann	3-1	12.00	BlueSq	11.00	-8.3%	1.100	1-0	W	100.00	9.50	33.00
UEFA	05-Dec	Dinamo Zagreb v Hamburg	1-1	6.50	Canbet	7.00	7.7%	1.167	0-2	W	60.00	9.50	42.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Everton v Zenit St Petersburg	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	9.20	8.2%	1.122	1-0	W	82.00	9.50	52.00
UEFA	05-Dec	FC Kobenhavn v Atl Madrid	0-1	7.50	Sportingbet	7.60	1.3%	1.152	0-2	W	66.00	9.50	61.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Mlada Boleslav v AEK	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	9.80	3.2%	1.114	0-1	W	88.00	9.50	71.00
UEFA	05-Dec	Nurnberg v AZ Alkmaar	1-1	7.00	BlueSq	7.00	0.0%	1.167	2-1	W	60.00	9.50	80.50
UEFA	05-Dec	Panathinaikos v Lokomotiv	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	10.50	10.5%	1.105	2-0	W	95.00	9.50	90.00
UEFA	05-Dec	Villarreal v Elfsborg	3-0	8.00	Stan James	7.60	-5.0%	1.152	2-0	W	66.00	9.50	99.50

Europe Bets Placed 188 Units Staked 13,745.00 Units Returned 13,844.50 Profit 99.50 Yield 0.72% Strike Rate 88.83% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 73.11

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Newcastle 1-1 Arsenal :) Prem Bets Placed 139 Units Staked 10,066.00 Units Returned 10,296.00 Profit 230.00 Yield 2.28% Strike Rate 89.21% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 72.42

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores A bit of interesting analysis (well I think so anyway! :zzz:lol) It's basically the CL and UEFA which is carrying the Europe bank.

	CL	Ger	Ita	Spa	UEFA
Bets Placed	34	35	38	41	40
Units Staked	1,891.50	5,053.50	5,018.50	4,618.50	5,479.50
Units Returned	2,073.50	4,948.50	4,820.00	4,537.00	5,782.00
Profit	182.00	(105.00)	(198.50)	(81.50)	302.50
Yield	9.62%	-2.08%	-3.96%	-1.76%	5.52%
Strike Rate	94.12%	85.71%	81.58%	85.37%	97.50%
Average Odds	1.15	1.13	1.15	1.14	1.13
Average Stake	70.18	77.54	70.58	70.85	76.45

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Today's Waffa Cup games:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
UEFA	06-Dec	Leverkusen v Sparta Prague	2-0	7.50	Paddy	7.60	1.3%	1.152			66.00	0.00	99.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Spartak Moscow v FC Zurich	0-0	11.00	Bet365	11.00	0.0%	1.100			100.00	0.00	99.50
UEFA	06-Dec	AaB v Getafe	1-1	7.00	Bet365	7.40	5.7%	1.156			64.00	0.00	99.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Anderlecht v Tottenham	1-2	10.00	BlueSq	10.50	5.0%	1.105			95.00	0.00	99.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Aris Thes. v Braga	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	9.40	-1.1%	1.119			84.00	0.00	99.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Austria Vienna v Panionios	1-1	6.50	Canbet	6.80	4.6%	1.172			58.00	0.00	99.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Bordeaux v Helsingborgs	2-1	9.00	Betinternet	9.20	2.2%	1.122			82.00	0.00	99.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Crvena Zvezda v Bolton	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	10.00	5.3%	1.111			90.00	0.00	99.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 7/8 but a loss of 15.50pts.

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
UEFA	06-Dec	Leverkusen v Sparta Prague	2-0	7.50	Paddy	7.60	1.3%	1.152	1-0	W	66.00	9.50	109.00
UEFA	06-Dec	Spartak Moscow v FC Zurich	0-0	11.00	Bet365	11.00	0.0%	1.100	1-0	W	100.00	9.50	118.50
UEFA	06-Dec	AaB v Getafe	1-1	7.00	Bet365	7.40	5.7%	1.156	1-2	W	64.00	9.50	128.00
UEFA	06-Dec	Anderlecht v Tottenham	1-2	10.00	BlueSq	10.50	5.0%	1.105	1-1	W	95.00	9.50	137.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Aris Thes. v Braga	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	9.40	-1.1%	1.119	1-1	W	84.00	9.50	147.00
UEFA	06-Dec	Austria Vienna v Panionios	1-1	6.50	Canbet	6.80	4.6%	1.172	0-1	W	58.00	9.50	156.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Bordeaux v Helsingborgs	2-1	9.00	Betinternet	9.20	2.2%	1.122	2-1	L	82.00	(82.00)	74.50
UEFA	06-Dec	Crvena Zvezda v Bolton	0-0	9.50	Victor Chandler	10.00	5.3%	1.111	0-1	W	90.00	9.50	84.00

Europe Bets Placed 196 Units Staked 14,384.00 Units Returned 14,468.00 Profit 84.00 Yield 0.58% Strike Rate 88.78% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 73.39

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Dortmund v Bielefeld Score to Lay 1-0 Best Bookie Price 8.00 Victor Chandler Betfair lay price 8.60 Price Diff 7.5%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Dortmund 6-1 Bielefeld Europe Bets Placed 197 Units Staked 14,460.00 Units Returned 14,553.50 Profit 93.50 Yield 0.65% Strike Rate 88.83% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 73.40

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Early Prem Kick Off: Aston Villa v Portsmouth Score to Lay 1-0 Best Bookie Price 8.00 Betdirect Betfair lay price 8.20 Price Diff 2.5%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Prem games:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Prem	08-Dec	Aston Villa v Portsmouth	1-0	8.00	Betdirect	8.20	2.5%	1.139			72.00	0.00	230.00
Prem	08-Dec	Chelsea v Sunderland	3-0	8.00	Skybet	7.80	-2.5%	1.147			68.00	0.00	230.00
Prem	08-Dec	Everton v Fulham	2-1	8.50	BlueSQ	8.80	3.5%	1.128			78.00	0.00	230.00
Prem	08-Dec	Man Utd v Derby	3-0	7.00	Centrebet	7.00	0.0%	1.167			60.00	0.00	230.00
Prem	08-Dec	Newcastle v Birmingham	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	8.80	3.5%	1.128			78.00	0.00	230.00

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Looks like we're taking on Canbet in Germany today:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ger	08-Dec	B Munich v Duisburg	3-0	8.00	Canbet	8.00	0.0%	1.143			70.00	0.00	93.50
Ger	08-Dec	Bochum v Karlsruhe	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.40	5.7%	1.156			64.00	0.00	93.50
Ger	08-Dec	Frankfurt v Schalke	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.40	5.7%	1.156			64.00	0.00	93.50
Ger	08-Dec	Hamburg v Cottbus	1-0	8.00	Victor Chandler	7.60	-5.0%	1.152			66.00	0.00	93.50
Ger	08-Dec	Hannover v W Bremen	1-1	7.50	Canbet	7.80	4.0%	1.147			68.00	0.00	93.50
Ger	08-Dec	Stuttgart v Wolfsburg	1-1	8.00	Canbet	8.60	7.5%	1.132			76.00	0.00	93.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Aston Villa 1-3 Portsmouth - a nice start. :) Reading v Liverpool Score to Lay 0-1 Best Bookie Price 7.00 Betfred Betfair lay price 7.40 Price Diff 5.7%

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Italian games:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ita	08-Dec	Lazio v Catania	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161			62.00	0.00	93.50
Ita	08-Dec	Palermo v Fiorentina	1-1	6.50	Canbet	6.80	4.6%	1.172			58.00	0.00	93.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Spanish games:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Spa	08-Dec	Osasuna v Valencia	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161			62.00	0.00	93.50
Spa	08-Dec	Ath Bilbao v Real Madrid	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161			62.00	0.00	93.50

Hoping for no 1-1's then. :\

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Full house in Germany. :)

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ger	08-Dec	B Munich v Duisburg	3-0	8.00	Canbet	8.00	0.0%	1.143	0-0	W	70.00	9.50	103.00
Ger	08-Dec	Bochum v Karlsruhe	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.40	5.7%	1.156	2-2	W	64.00	9.50	112.50
Ger	08-Dec	Frankfurt v Schalke	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.40	5.7%	1.156	2-2	W	64.00	9.50	122.00
Ger	08-Dec	Hamburg v Cottbus	1-0	8.00	Victor Chandler	7.60	-5.0%	1.152	0-0	W	66.00	9.50	131.50
Ger	08-Dec	Hannover v W Bremen	1-1	7.50	Canbet	7.80	4.0%	1.147	4-3	W	68.00	9.50	141.00
Ger	08-Dec	Stuttgart v Wolfsburg	1-1	8.00	Canbet	8.60	7.5%	1.132	3-1	W	76.00	9.50	150.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Was looking good in the Prem too.... until the last minute at Newcastle. :puke So 30.50pts loss.

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Prem	08-Dec	Aston Villa v Portsmouth	1-0	8.00	Betdirect	8.20	2.5%	1.139	1-3	W	72.00	9.50	239.50
Prem	08-Dec	Chelsea v Sunderland	3-0	8.00	Skybet	7.80	-2.5%	1.147	2-0	W	68.00	9.50	249.00
Prem	08-Dec	Everton v Fulham	2-1	8.50	BlueSQ	8.80	3.5%	1.128	3-0	W	78.00	9.50	258.50
Prem	08-Dec	Man Utd v Derby	3-0	7.00	Centrebet	7.00	0.0%	1.167	4-1	W	60.00	9.50	268.00
Prem	08-Dec	Newcastle v Birmingham	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	8.80	3.5%	1.128	2-1	L	78.00	(78.00)	190.00
Prem	08-Dec	Reading v Liverpool	0-1	7.00	Betfred	7.40	5.7%	1.156	1-1*	W	64.00	9.50	199.50

Prem Bets Placed 145 Units Staked 10,486.00 Units Returned 10,685.50 Profit 199.50 Yield 1.90% Strike Rate 88.97% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 72.32

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 4/4 in Europe this evening for 95pts profit on the day.

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ger	08-Dec	B Munich v Duisburg	3-0	8.00	Canbet	8.00	0.0%	1.143	0-0	W	70.00	9.50	103.00
Ger	08-Dec	Bochum v Karlsruhe	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.40	5.7%	1.156	2-2	W	64.00	9.50	112.50
Ger	08-Dec	Frankfurt v Schalke	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.40	5.7%	1.156	2-2	W	64.00	9.50	122.00
Ger	08-Dec	Hamburg v Cottbus	1-0	8.00	Victor Chandler	7.60	-5.0%	1.152	0-0	W	66.00	9.50	131.50
Ger	08-Dec	Hannover v W Bremen	1-1	7.50	Canbet	7.80	4.0%	1.147	4-3	W	68.00	9.50	141.00
Ger	08-Dec	Stuttgart v Wolfsburg	1-1	8.00	Canbet	8.60	7.5%	1.132	3-1	W	76.00	9.50	150.50
Ita	08-Dec	Lazio v Catania	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161	2-0	W	62.00	9.50	160.00
Ita	08-Dec	Palermo v Fiorentina	1-1	6.50	Canbet	6.80	4.6%	1.172	2-0	W	58.00	9.50	169.50
Spa	08-Dec	Osasuna v Valencia	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161	0-0	W	62.00	9.50	179.00
Spa	08-Dec	Ath Bilbao v Real Madrid	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161	0-1	W	62.00	9.50	188.50

Europe Bets Placed 207 Units Staked 15,112.00 Units Returned 15,300.50 Profit 188.50 Yield 1.25% Strike Rate 89.37% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 73.00

[kevan]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Hi Hodgey, Noticed you were 'working late' again. You've put a lot into this and i'm sure there are many that appreciate all the hard work. Please keep it up mate, i am thinking of going live and to start backing (laying) the selections. I reckon this thread could run and run for a long time in profit.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

Hi Hodgey, Noticed you were 'working late' again. You've put a lot into this and i'm sure there are many that appreciate all the hard work. Please keep it up mate, i am thinking of going live and to start backing (laying) the selections. I reckon this thread could run and run for a long time in profit.

That wasn't late - this is late! :lol I thought everyone had got bored with this thread - Cheers mate it's nice to be appreciated. :ok Re going live - I was considering it too from Jan 1st but then there was quite a set back last weekend. However since then it's bounced back quite well in Europe. Here;s the overall stats to yesterday. They are maybe misleading though in that they include the Prem from Aug but Europe only from Nov. Total Bets Placed 352 Units Staked 25,598.00 Units Returned 25,986.00 Profit 388.00 Yield 1.52% Strike Rate 89.20% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 72.72 I'll stick up some more analysis after today's games...

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 4 Prem games today:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Prem	09-Dec	Middlesbrough v Arsenal	1-2	9.00	Betinternet	9.40	4.4%	1.119			84.00	0.00	199.50
Prem	09-Dec	Bolton v Wigan	1-0	7.50	Centrebet	7.40	-1.3%	1.156			64.00	0.00	199.50
Prem	09-Dec	Tottenham v Man City	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161			62.00	0.00	199.50
Prem	09-Dec	Blackburn v West Ham	1-1	7.50	Centrebet	7.80	4.0%	1.147			68.00	0.00	199.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Italian games this arvo:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ita	09-Dec	Empoli v Cagliari	2-1	9.50	Centrebet	9.80	3.2%	1.114			88.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Genoa v Siena	2-1	8.50	BlueSq	8.60	1.2%	1.132			76.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Inter v Torino	2-1	10.00	Coral	9.40	-6.0%	1.119			84.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Juventus v Atalanta	2-1	9.00	Sportingbet	8.40	-6.7%	1.135			74.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Livorno v Roma	1-2	8.50	Sportingbet	8.40	-1.2%	1.135			74.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Udinese v Sampdoria	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161			62.00	0.00	188.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Bundesliga:

Ger	09-Dec	Leverkusen v H Rostock	1-1	11.00	Canbet	11.00	0.0%	1.100			100.00	0.00	188.50
Ger	09-Dec	Nurnberg v H Berlin	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.60	8.6%	1.152			66.00	0.00	188.50

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Ok Spain added and the late Italian game too:

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ita	09-Dec	Empoli v Cagliari	2-1	9.50	Centrebet	9.80	3.2%	1.114			88.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Genoa v Siena	2-1	8.50	BlueSq	8.60	1.2%	1.132			76.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Inter v Torino	2-1	10.00	Coral	9.40	-6.0%	1.119			84.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Juventus v Atalanta	2-1	9.00	Sportingbet	8.40	-6.7%	1.135			74.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Livorno v Roma	1-2	8.50	Sportingbet	8.40	-1.2%	1.135			74.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Udinese v Sampdoria	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161			62.00	0.00	188.50
Ger	09-Dec	Leverkusen v H Rostock	1-1	11.00	Canbet	11.00	0.0%	1.100			100.00	0.00	188.50
Ger	09-Dec	Nurnberg v H Berlin	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.60	8.6%	1.152			66.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Almeria v Valladolid	1-1	6.50	Laddies	6.80	4.6%	1.172			58.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Levante v Rec de Huelva	2-1	11.00	Hills	11.00	0.0%	1.100			100.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Santander v Mallorca	1-1	7.00	Canbet	6.80	-2.9%	1.172			58.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Sevilla v Murcia	3-0	12.00	Centrebet	11.00	-8.3%	1.100			100.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Villarreal v Betis	1-1	8.00	Canbet	8.00	0.0%	1.143			70.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Zaragoza v Espanyol	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161			62.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Atl Madrid v Getafe	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	8.80	3.5%	1.128			78.00	0.00	188.50
Ita	09-Dec	Napoli v Parma	1-1	7.00	Centrebet	7.00	0.0%	1.167			60.00	0.00	188.50
Spa	09-Dec	Barcelona v Deportivo	3-0	8.50	Victor Chandler	8.20	-3.5%	1.139			72.00	0.00	188.50

Could get hurt today as there are a couple of high odds lays. :\

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Four for four in the Prem. :)

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Prem	09-Dec	Middlesbrough v Arsenal	1-2	9.00	Betinternet	9.40	4.4%	1.119	2-1	W	84.00	9.50	209.00
Prem	09-Dec	Bolton v Wigan	1-0	7.50	Centrebet	7.40	-1.3%	1.156	4-1	W	64.00	9.50	218.50
Prem	09-Dec	Tottenham v Man City	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161	2-1	W	62.00	9.50	228.00
Prem	09-Dec	Blackburn v West Ham	1-1	7.50	Centrebet	7.80	4.0%	1.147	0-1	W	68.00	9.50	237.50

Prem Bets Placed 149 Units Staked 10,764.00 Units Returned 11,001.50 Profit 237.50 Yield 2.21% Strike Rate 89.26% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 72.24

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores And a whopping 17 out ouf 17 in Europe! :dude

League	Date	Match	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Back Odds	Result	W/L	Liability	P/(L)	Balance
Ita	09-Dec	Empoli v Cagliari	2-1	9.50	Centrebet	9.80	3.2%	1.114	4-1	W	88.00	9.50	198.00
Ita	09-Dec	Genoa v Siena	2-1	8.50	BlueSq	8.60	1.2%	1.132	1-3	W	76.00	9.50	207.50
Ita	09-Dec	Inter v Torino	2-1	10.00	Coral	9.40	-6.0%	1.119	4-0	W	84.00	9.50	217.00
Ita	09-Dec	Juventus v Atalanta	2-1	9.00	Sportingbet	8.40	-6.7%	1.135	1-0	W	74.00	9.50	226.50
Ita	09-Dec	Livorno v Roma	1-2	8.50	Sportingbet	8.40	-1.2%	1.135	1-1	W	74.00	9.50	236.00
Ita	09-Dec	Udinese v Sampdoria	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161	3-2	W	62.00	9.50	245.50
Ger	09-Dec	Leverkusen v H Rostock	1-1	11.00	Canbet	11.00	0.0%	1.100	3-0	W	100.00	9.50	255.00
Ger	09-Dec	Nurnberg v H Berlin	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.60	8.6%	1.152	2-1	W	66.00	9.50	264.50
Spa	09-Dec	Almeria v Valladolid	1-1	6.50	Laddies	6.80	4.6%	1.172	1-0	W	58.00	9.50	274.00
Spa	09-Dec	Levante v Rec de Huelva	2-1	11.00	Hills	11.00	0.0%	1.100	0-2	W	100.00	9.50	283.50
Spa	09-Dec	Santander v Mallorca	1-1	7.00	Canbet	6.80	-2.9%	1.172	3-1	W	58.00	9.50	293.00
Spa	09-Dec	Sevilla v Murcia	3-0	12.00	Centrebet	11.00	-8.3%	1.100	3-1	W	100.00	9.50	302.50
Spa	09-Dec	Villarreal v Betis	1-1	8.00	Canbet	8.00	0.0%	1.143	0-1	W	70.00	9.50	312.00
Spa	09-Dec	Zaragoza v Espanyol	1-1	7.00	Canbet	7.20	2.9%	1.161	3-3	W	62.00	9.50	321.50
Spa	09-Dec	Atl Madrid v Getafe	2-1	8.50	Sportingbet	8.80	3.5%	1.128	1-0	W	78.00	9.50	331.00
Ita	09-Dec	Napoli v Parma	1-1	7.00	Centrebet	7.00	0.0%	1.167	1-0	W	60.00	9.50	340.50
Spa	09-Dec	Barcelona v Deportivo	3-0	8.50	Victor Chandler	8.20	-3.5%	1.139	2-1	W	72.00	9.50	350.00

Europe Bets Placed 224 Units Staked 16,394.00 Units Returned 16,744.00 Profit 350.00 Yield 2.13% Strike Rate 90.18% Average Odds 1.14 Average Stake 73.19 Actually got all 28 this weekend in Europe plus 9/10 in the Prem for 273.50pts profit :dude

[aliando]

Re: Laying Correct Scores cant argue with 21/21! nice one!

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores

cant argue with 21/21! nice one!

Cheers mate. It's safe to say I was quite pleased with that! Am very tempted to give it a whirl for real now from the New Year.... but then there's a voice in my head that says see what it's like after a whole season. Not sure if I have that much patience though... :\

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Some updated stats:

	Fixed	Progressive	% Bank			Fixed	Progressive	% Bank			Fixed	Progressive	% Bank
	Profit	Staking	Staking			Profit	Staking	Staking			Profit	Staking	Staking
Prem					Europe					Total
Bets Placed	149	149	149		Bets Placed	224	224	224		Bets Placed	373	373	373
Units Staked	10,764.00	12,930.02	12,322.37		Units Staked	16,394.00	20,246.12	18,011.93		Units Staked	27,158.00	39,155.32	34,781.86
Units Returned	11,001.50	13,189.33	12,554.15		Units Returned	16,744.00	20,644.60	18,322.18		Units Returned	27,745.50	39,928.84	35,385.08
Profit	237.50	259.31	231.78		Profit	350.00	398.48	310.25		Profit	587.50	773.52	603.22
Yield	2.21%	2.01%	1.88%		Yield	2.13%	1.97%	1.72%		Yield	2.16%	1.98%	1.73%
Strike Rate	89.26%	89.26%	89.26%		Strike Rate	90.18%	90.18%	90.18%		Strike Rate	89.81%	89.81%	89.81%
Average Odds	1.14	1.14	1.14		Average Odds	1.14	1.14	1.14		Average Odds	1.14	1.14	1.14
Average Stake	72.24	86.78	82.70		Average Stake	73.19	90.38	80.41		Average Stake	72.81	104.97	93.25

So progressive staking is better than fixed, however when it went wrong this staking took it into the red slightly. I think if I were to do this for real I'd probably stick to fixed and then if it were profitable after a season look to review and increase the stake then. Incidentally the Average lay prices are: Prem 8.22 Europe 8.32 Total 8.28

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores Europe analysis by Country/Competition:

	CL	Ger	Ita	Spa	UEFA
Bets Placed	34	44	47	51	48
Units Staked	2,386.00	3,364.00	3,320.00	3,627.00	3,697.00
Units Returned	2,568.00	3,344.50	3,207.00	3,640.50	3,984.00
Profit	182.00	(19.50)	(113.00)	13.50	287.00
Yield	7.63%	-0.58%	-3.40%	0.37%	7.76%
Strike Rate	94.12%	88.64%	85.11%	88.24%	95.83%
Average Odds	1.15	1.13	1.15	1.14	1.13
Average Stake	70.18	76.45	70.64	71.12	77.02

All the leagues have redeemed themselves this weekend, but Italy still showing a large loss. Early days in terms of number of bets though. In comparsion the Prem had 61pts profit after 47 matches. The CL & UEFA which I had my doubts about have surpassed all expectations (cue losses tonight!) but again not a meaningful amount of games yet.

[Hodgey]

Re: Laying Correct Scores 'Value' comparison. Rather than post up a huge pivot table, here's a brief summary:

'Value'	Bets	P/L
	84	(24.00)
0%	78	373.50
> 0%	211	238.00
Total	373	587.50

Again disproving my initial thoughts of laying under the bookie price to achieve profit! :lol