Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

[Woodie]

Some cracking races this week lets get the week of to a fyler. :hope

[Woodie]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 2.50 Raincoat No reason why Lion Sands should reverse form with Yellowstone as they race of the same weights again today and looks to be a race to have him spot on for the Leger the same could be said about Aqaleem who has to give weight away because his third in the derby which could prove to much for which looks like a prep race for him. Yellowstone is looking a bit hard to win with although has some good group 1 form of late he would prefer firm ground for sure. Raincoat however is steped up in trip which he has looked like needed from his race in France last time and was only 4 lenghts away from Authorized in the Dante on ground he didn't enjoy to much. Good ground forecast which he'll like even more has a decent shout at around 7/1. 3.25 Tariq (nap) Most of these looks open to much more improvment but Tariq was very impressive over this distance at Ascot when beating Us Ranger. Will be interesting to see how the younger horses get on against the 4 year olds but I expect a lot more to come from Tariq and he can take this before going onto win a nice group 1 soon.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 2.50 Cracking race this and looking forward to seeing derby 3rd place Aqaleem in action but with only 2 faves in 10 winning this race previous, I keep been drawn towards Tranquil Tiger E/W @ 13.0. A good battling C1 winner LTO and looking at that last race I feel the trip will suit. Ted Durcan has won on him before and should know how to ride him, Aqaleem may prove to be just too good but hopefully Tranquil Tiger can give me a run for my money.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 the 4.35 could turn into a tactical affair and i fancy Cumani's ultra-consistent Samurai Way to be bang there, yard have done well with runners in this race and horse holds an entry in the Ebor.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 2:50 Goodwood Aqaleem and Yellowstone deserve to be favourites but I believe Lion Sands at 6.8/1 represents the best value. He is less exposed than Yellowstone and was probably unsuited to a slowly run race at Ascot (well Backed) last time. Very well bred (Northern Dancer - Mill Reef nick). Comes from a stable in cracking form. Hearthstead Maison is also good value at 11/1 his win last time off a big weight seems to be under rated by bookies and punters alike. Has been consistant away from soft going and might be able to dictate. Two negatives though are jockey unable to claim and stable unusually out of form. Still worth backing at the price. Have also saved on Raincoat 6.4/1. Should be suited by step up in trip. Suggest £30 Lion Sands 6.8/1 £15 Hearthstead Maison 11/1 £10 Raincoat 6.4/1 Combined Price 15/8

[Gingertipster]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 3:25 GOODWOOD Tariq looks the obvious one here but it is asking a lot for a hold up horse to come fom stall 2 over Goodwoods 7 furlongs. I want 3/1 or bigger to back him. Asset has improved at 6 furlongs this season, should be as good at 7f but his best form is when fresh. I want 9/2 or more. Royal Oath is improving and has shown enough speed in his races to suggest 7f will not be a problem. Stable in form, might need luck in running but worth risk at 6.8/1. Mutaawajid may well benefit from his British debut (too keen). Should be at least as good at 7f, 11/1 is too big especially if reverting to racing prominently. Dunelight is the obvious front runner and although there are others who like to race up with the pace, he could be hard to peg back. Loves the course and the going is coming in his favour. Taken 16.5/1. Suggest £30 Royal Oath 6.8/1 £20 Mutawaajid 11/1 £13 Dunelight 16.5/1 Combined Price 11/4

[Gingertipster]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 4:35 GOODWOOD Samurai Way looks the stand out favourite but still looks value at around 100/30. I make him a 9/4 chance. Ran as though will benefit for this step up in trip at Newmarket and if not given too much to do will be difficult to beat. I backed Swan Queen last time and felt he would have won with a more forceful ride, delighted to see Robinson takes over today. She's not had much racing over staying trips and may be able to improve again (needs to). I make her a 13/2 chance and 9/1 was available, now 17/2. Tilt seemed to run out of puff over 2 miles on heavy, could improve back in trip and Hernando Royal could improve going the other way. Both at between 20 and 25/1. Suggest £60 Samurai Way 100/30 £25 Swan Queen 9/1 £5 Hernando Royal 22/1 £5 Tilt 24/1 Combined price 11/8

[softie]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 Short of time unfortunately, but i like the look of both Dream Eater and Paveroc in the maiden at 5.05 Both have solid form in better races than this, both finishing 1/2 length behind Hatta Fort who has gone onto to win a Group 2 race recently, albeit stepped up to 7f. Dream Eater also ran well to finish 5l behind Winker Watson after refusing to settle the time before. The current exchange fav. Shallal ran in a modest maiden at Newmarket and did not really cover himself in glory and imo will need to improve a fair bit on that to win this. If Dream Eater settles, i expect him to take all the beating, but Paveroc should also be thereabouts 5 points win on both Dream Eater and Paveroc @ 5.7 and 5.9 respectively

[Carl]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

Horse: Emirates Skyline

Course: Goodwood Time: 2.15

4 year olds have a good record in this opener and the Godolphin raider could be the pick of them form a decent draw. S bin Suroor has a good record here with 22 winners from 81 runners, 27.2%SR. I always consider Emirates to be one of Godolphin's better horses and its interesting that he sports a visor for the first time. Horse: Yellowstone Course: Goodwood Time: 2.50 Only 1 win in his career so far and that was last year as 2 year old on its debut. Aidan O'Brien is on fire lately and this Rock Of Gibraltar colt will be hard to beat. 8th in the Derby and 4th at Sandown in the Coral Eclipse behind Notnowcato,Authorized and G.W, that's pretty solid form and should take this easy. Horse: Assertive (e/w) Course: Goodwood Time: 3.25 3rd in this last year and could well run into a place again here at what might be a decent price. Won 3 times in listed company and could have enough pace from a decent draw to be in the money Horse: Dream Eater Course: Goodwood Time: 5.05 Pretty open contest but the pick of the experience runners goes to Dream Eater who takes a drop in class for this maiden. 6th to Winker Watson in a Group 2 event at Newmarket and the horse who finished 7th on that occasion 'Fat Boy' won in a decent fashion on Friday in a class 3.

[Kanga]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 5:40 Goodwood .... Vicious Warrior E/W @ 25/1 Trainers in great form and Jockey has a great record at Goodwood Carried topweight in heavy ground to victory last time out 17 days ago. Great place chance at big odds.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 Nice to see a really decent card at last.Just thought i would give my opinion on all races today! 2.15-BANADMA-Better than last run and weighted to go close. 2.50-HERON BAY-Has to improve on his win LTO but may be able to do that as it was an impresive run and @16/1 is not out of it. 3.25-ROYAL OATH-Jockey on this and not the fav which he normally rides also 9/4 looks very short in a race that could easily go to a big priced horse IMO.But will stick with this one 4.00-TIA MIA-Any price you like for this won a bit to find with the fav but may well do better this time. 4.35-GO SOLO-An other big priced one that may be worth a 2nd look as its from the pipe stable with the dazzler on board 5.05-EASTERN GIFT-Think this one is capable of stepping up on 1st couple of runs.Hannon 2yo always worth a 2nd look. 5.40-PRESS THE BUTTON Low weight who running into form and has a nice draw.Ran well in this last year.PRINCE OF THEBES has a poor draw but is better than shown this year and may run a place. GOOD LUCK ALL

[mowgli77]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 2:50 GORDON STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £28,390.00 1m4f GOOD Horse by horse analysis Aqaleem Won the Lingfield Derby trial in style but didn’t look like it beat much. Ran better than I expected to get 3^rd in the Derby on good ground but looked outpaced and outclassed at Group 1 level over the 1m4f trip. Well fancied for the St Leger and has huge expectations. If it’s as good as expected it will have no trouble winning this Group 3 race. Will start as favourite but personally I have reservations over how good it is and will avoid it at the price. Mores Wells Has only run in Ireland so far and seemed suited by the 1m2f when it won at Leopardstown in a Group 3. Stamina to prove at this trip and no match for Soldier Of Fortune in the Irish Derby but that may have been due to heavy ground. Won an Irish maiden race on good ground but looks outclassed here and has to improve to get involved in a hot looking Group 3 race. Big Robert Does not currently hold any Group 1 entries and has failed to win at listed level or group 3 level out of 6 attempts and looks to be totally out of it’s depth here against horses likely to go on to better class races in the future. Won a class 3 race on soft last time out but won on good ground back in 2006. Form of its races does not look too strong. Champery Last of 8 in the Eclipse and does not look Group 1 class but has run with some credit at listed level. Not sure that form will be good enough to win this group 3 race. When stepped up to 10f at listed level it could only manage 8^th of 14 when it weakened over 1f out. Stamina issues and possibly outclassed. No wins on good, no wins at this trip, opposed. Heartshead Maison This horse beat Boscobel in a 1m2f class 2 handicap and that form boosted by Boscobel at Royal Ascot when it won a Group 2. Also managed to be 2^nd to Aqaleem in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Won a decent handicap last time out over 1m2f but stamina questions over this trip and was last when tried at 2m. Looks a good handicapper but unlikely to be involved in many group races. Has won on good ground but not at class 1 level. Heron Bay Beaten by Lion Sands in a Haydock maiden and went off as a well fancied 15-8 fav that day. Ran over 12f on good to firm last time out and won that class 2 handicap. Held in high regard by Geoff Wragg and he had this race in mind since June. Still lightly raced and improving all the time, showed a really good battling attitude and stuck it’s neck out to rally at the finish and get up on the line last time out. Could be over priced at 16-1. Lion Sands Had 3 runs in maidens and won the final one over 12f on good to firm ground. Stepped up to Group 2 level and was 4^th behind Boscobel, Lucarno and Yellowstone. Well fancied and gambled on that day. Still looks progressive, unexposed and capable of making its mark in a race like this for a trainer in form. Needs to improve but looks to have the potential to improve past horses like Yellowstone. Ryan Moore on board is a massive plus. Raincoat Poor run last time out in France when finishing 11^th of 20. Had looked very good before that with 2 wins and a 2^nd to Authorized in the Dante by 4 lengths. Won an Epsom conditions race in fine eyecatching style when quickening through a gap to go clear and only needed one crack of the whip to pick up well. Unproven on good ground but should be fine and seems versatile as it has won on good to firm and placed on good to soft. Should be suited by the extra 2f. A turn of foot is a massive plus and Richard Hughes gets on well with the horse. Tranquil Tiger Won a listed race when driven out over 13f by Richard Hughes last time out but he rides Raincoat. Ted Durcan has won on the horse and takes the ride today. Has run well over 10f and likely to improve and needs to. Should have no problem with the trip and could be anything. Hughes would probably have taken the ride if he had fancied its chances and that might indicate this has less chance than Raincoat today. Yellowstone Has had 9 runs and has only managed to win a maiden despite being tried in some top class races. Was no match for any number of decent horses including Authorized, Notnowcato, Cockney Rebel and Boscobel. Has a more realistic chance now running in Group 3 class despite being possibly exposed and other horses likely to improve past this one that are more lightly raced. 2 runs on good, both unplaced and has not won over this trip. I get the feeling this is so highly rated due to the trainer rather than it’s achievements. Trends/Topspeed The winners have had Racing Post Ratings varying between 110 to 123. The average rating over the last 11 runnings has been 116 and only 1 favourite and one joint favourite have won this race in those 11 years. There have been winners at 5-1, 7-1, 9-1, and 12-1 twice. RP ratings suggest this race might go to an unexposed horse with potential to improve. Aqaleem has a rating of 128 and Yellowstone has a rating of 133. I’m interested in Heron bay rated 117 RPR, Lion Sands rated 124 RPR and Raincoat rated 127 RPR. Yellowstone and Aqaleem have Topspeed ratings of 126 and 124, Raincoat is 119, Heron Bay 117 and Lion Sands 109. Mores Wells is one of the lesser fancied runners with a good speed rating of 122. Summary Aqaleem is expected to take this but the favourites stats aren’t great in the race and the Leger will be it’s long term target. Trainer has already said it will be hard to win and treats this more as a prep race. Yellowstone is at a more realistic level but seems exposed and could be vulnerable to improving horses. I’m willing to take the 2 market leaders on and with there being 10 runners paying 3 places I’m happy to take 3 each way at decent prices. It’s a rare case of potential rather than proven form for me today as I have reservations about the 2 mentioned. Suggested Bets 5 PTS EW – Raincoat (6-1 >Betfred/William Hill) 5 PTS EW – Lion Sands (6-1 Tote/Paddy Power) 5 PTS EW – Heron Bay (14-1 >Bet365, BOG) 30 PTS STAKED

[cc75]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 2.15: Emirates Skyline - Stable in better form just now and first time visor may help concentration levels enough to win this. E/W 8/1 (Bet365) 2.50: Yellowstone - looks one to beat on latest 4th in Eclipse. O'Brien/Murtagh combo to win for me. Win 4/1 (Bet365) 3.25: Arabian Gleam - Ran with credit when 3rd to Tariq in Jersey Stakes. Needs to find but not impossible as lightly raced and Seb Sanders. E/W fancy 12/1 (Sporting Odds) 4.00: Captain Gerrard - drawn well and possible progression not ended yet. Also, i'm a big reds fan - come on the Gerrard! e/w 15/2 (Skybet) 4.35: Scriptwriter - best efforts give him sound chance here, interesting over new trip. E/W value at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) 5.05: Paveroc - Neck behind Dream Eater in Windsor Castle Stakes when not getting the clearest run (5f). Could prove too strong on first effort over 6f. Win NAP 5/1 (Sporting Odds) 5.40: Waterside - C&D winner who has won from a mark of 100 on AW. Good last couple of turf efforts and current turf mark of 88 handy if able to reproduce best AW form. E/W 14/1 (Bet365)

[mowgli77]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 Dunelight 3.25 Goodwood Backed this when it won at Goodwood from the front and was impressed at how it ran them ragged over 1m in a listed race. Stepped up to group 2 last time out and tracked leaders before trying to kick for home. Was picking up nicely and had every chance but got bumped and lost all momentum. Looked very unlucky that day and worth another try at a course it clearly enjoys. Previous run here in a class 2 race saw it finish 2nd. Drops back to 7f today but could lead all the way and will definitely get home as it stays 1m. Has 2 wins and 2 thirds on good ground from 5 runs and a placed effort over 7f. 14-1 looks huge. Arabian Gleam 3.25 Goodwood This went in the PL notebook early on this season due to these comments from RP analysis:

Arabian Gleam

ARABIAN GLEAM

was highly impressive and could have gone quicker, had anything been good enough to get closer. Arabian Gleam had shaped with promise on his debut here over 1f further four weeks earlier, staying on to be second, and proved equally effective at this shorter trip as odds-on favourite. He went best, led 2f out and drew clear on the run-in. He will be very hard to beat next time, assuming his sights aren't raised considerably - and even if they are, he might take some catching over 6f or 7f.

Sporting Odds are a standout 12-1 and this looks worthy of ew support today. It was running on and gaining last time out on good to firm and should be fine on good ground today. Suggested Bets: 5 PTS EW -Dunelight (14-1 >Betfred) 5 PTS EW - Arabian Gleam (12-1 Sporting Odds)

Finished 3rd in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot behind Tariq and US Ranger by about 3-4 lengths but is still lightly raced, progressive and unexposed. Seb Sanders rides and he is in fine form and has won on the horse already. Most firms go 9-1/10-1 but

[Tom Hedonist]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 Goodwood 3.25 - Dunelight (e/w) Has one win and a 2nd place at Goodwood over 8f on good and g/f ground respectively. Likes to run up front which suits Goodwood. 14/1 widely available

[bowles10]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 shows the quality of the racing as to how many posts in here! Dont be surprised if a few tips come via me this week first one is 4.35 race - Castle Howard trained by Willie Musson. This source knows the stable well & at 12/1 available an EW is where my money is going. Also, i tend to consider Course winners at Goodwood, these are: 2.15 Championship point / nayyir / dansili dancer / speedy sam / fort churchill 2.50 none 3.25 Dunelight 4.00 Enodoc / spirit of sharjah 4.35 Strategic mount / cape secret 5.05 none 5.40 waterside / wavertree warrior / woodcote place / nawaqees My bet will be the PLACEPOT with the 2.50 & 5.05 races reverting to the favourite, the bet is 20 lines. In the 5.40 race, i'll be backing all 4 to win !!

[Arnold07]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 14:15 Greek Well, e/w. Can see this behind a tight fought contest with a number of likely contenders, but really like the look of this horse, with 4 places available cant see this being out of the reckoning currently 6/1 seems decent value for a horse who, i think, will get a place and could sneak it. LTO was 4 lengths behind the impressive Charlie Tokyo on ground that didnt suit todays ground should be much more agreeable. :hope Arnold

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 2.15 Lake Poet could be nice e.w. chance. Despite being pretty high in the weights, it had some good some good victories at Epsom and will be more suited to Goodwood than Ascot LTO. 3.25 Mutawaajid e.w. Has form outside the country at more than the 6f LTO in the July Cup and even though that was a fair run it was possibly needed and may come on for that as long as it does not get trapped in a speed duel. 4.00 Cake e.w Hannon thinks a lot of this horse and its form is not too bad including a run of early victories and finishing fifth in the Queen Mary and that means she has not got massive amounts to find with the likely favourite who was second that day. She was too keen LTO and if she settles today she can run well. 5.40 Montpellier. I have put this up a few times and despite some good runs which really mean he should be in with a great chance here, he can disappoint but a recreation of say his second at Epsom should see him go close.

[jones12345]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 3.25 ROYAL OATH 6/1 available e/way imo this horse ran a lifetime best last time out,so if he shows anything like that today will go very close also jimmy fortune sticks with this 1 instead of fav :hope

[kevsul]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

2.15 Lake Poet could be nice e.w. chance. Despite being pretty high in the weights' date= it had some good some good victories at Epsom and will be more suited to Goodwood than Ascot LTO. 3.25 Mutawaajid e.w. Has form outside the country at more than the 6f LTO in the July Cup and even though that was a fair run it was possibly needed and may come on for that as long as it does not get trapped in a speed duel. 4.00 Cake e.w Hannon thinks a lot of this horse and its form is not too bad including a run of early victories and finishing fifth in the Queen Mary and that means she has not got massive amounts to find with the likely favourite who was second that day. She was too keen LTO and if she settles today she can run well. 5.40 Montpellier. I have put this up a few times and despite some good runs which really mean he should be in with a great chance here, he can disappoint but a recreation of say his second at Epsom should see him go close.

Nice start.. Lake poet placed..:clap

[kevsul]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

Horse: Yellowstone Course: Goodwood Time: 2.50 Only 1 win in his career so far and that was last year as 2 year old on its debut. Aidan O'Brien is on fire lately and this Rock Of Gibraltar colt will be hard to beat. 8th in the Derby and 4th at Sandown in the Coral Eclipse behind Notnowcato,Authorized and G.W, that's pretty solid form and should take this easy. .

:clap:clap:clap Well done Carl.:ok

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 3:10 is a flip start, the stalls are buggered lol this should be fun then.... Im on Divine Spirit

[bowles10]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 well Aqaleem was very unlucky there being held in by raincoat on its outside. i dont agree with the theory C4 have said that it got a clear run with 150 yards left so had enough time to win. this was against a horse in full flow & to make up 3 or 4 L from literally a gallop into a sprint you need more time. I follow goodwood a bit & as Championship point demonstrated in the 1st, you can just come down the outside. I blame jockey error here IMO.

[bowles10]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1 Had a small ew interest on LEVERA in the next race - just think the 33/1 price is far too big.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

well Aqaleem was very unlucky there being held in by raincoat on its outside. i dont agree with the theory C4 have said that it got a clear run with 150 yards left so had enough time to win. this was against a horse in full flow & to make up 3 or 4 L from literally a gallop into a sprint you need more time. I follow goodwood a bit & as Championship point demonstrated in the 1st, you can just come down the outside. I blame jockey error here IMO.

I was on Aqualeem and I'm gutted :cry Hope Asset can make my day better in the next .. took the 4/1 early :hope

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

3:10 is a flip start, the stalls are buggered lol this should be fun then.... Im on Divine Spirit

Ooops wrong thread :$

[mileni4uk]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

I was on Aqualeem and I'm gutted :cry Hope Asset can make my day better in the next .. took the 4/1 early :hope

Another bloody 2nd .. well .. not my day :\

[bowles10]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

3:10 is a flip start, the stalls are buggered lol this should be fun then.... Im on Divine Spirit

Ooops wrong thread :$

:lol:lol and it won, well done mate:rollin

[bowles10]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

3.25 Tariq (nap) Most of these looks open to much more improvment but Tariq was very impressive over this distance at Ascot when beating Us Ranger. Will be interesting to see how the younger horses get on against the 4 year olds but I expect a lot more to come from Tariq and he can take this before going onto win a nice group 1 soon.

superb nap mate, bet you are happy with that price 7/2 !!!! :notworthy

[bowles10]

Re: Glorious Goodwood DAY 1

shows the quality of the racing as to how many posts in here! Dont be surprised if a few tips come via me this week first one is 4.35 race - Castle Howard trained by Willie Musson. This source knows the stable well & at 12/1 available an EW is where my money is going. 5.40 waterside 3rd 16/1 :\/ wavertree warrior / woodcote place 4th 25/1 :\/ nawaqees In the 5.40 race, i'll be backing all 4 to win !! :walldidnt do EW

sorry about the tip lads, faded at the death after being on terms until about 2f out. 2 places in the last race though at big prices!