Remmer7 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial FIrstly...well done on reaching 150 lays and maintaining such a healthy profit. This is very much like something I would come up with myself as I am also poor in the knowledge department. I may very well try this out myself now as I think laying very late would most certainly increase profit further. Good work :notworthy and good luck if you are going to continue this thread :hope I certainly hope so :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Nice idea mate, very simple and profitable. Well done for sticking with it! Good luck, BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Simple and effective up to now. Great stuff and brilliant to see it still in profit. Hope you keep the thread going :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Dragon Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial I have been following this thread for its duration (under my old I.D. "Hellblazer" ) and have been very impressed with your results. Brilliant thread and well done on making it a winner! :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Thanks guys. I will be continuing this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial :clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Due to a NR at 12:02pm Direct Debit is no longer a selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's Selections (and there are quite a few): 13/07/2007 14:15 York Transmission 3.25:D 13/07/2007 14:35 Newmarket Something 9.2:D 13/07/2007 14:45 York Firenze 3.4:D 13/07/2007 15:10 Newmarket Dutch Art 6.6:D 13/07/2007 15:35 Ascot Indian Trail 5.1:D 13/07/2007 15:45 Newmarket Laureldean Gale 2.82:wall 13/07/2007 15:55 York Harvest Warrior 4.8:D 13/07/2007 16:20 Newmarket Nine Stories 5.9 - NR 13/07/2007 18:50 Hamilton Kirkby's Treasure 4.8:D 13/07/2007 19:20 Hamilton Lake Chini 4.8:D 13/07/2007 19:40 Chester Obstructive 3.25:wall 13/07/2007 20:40 Chester Calabash Cove 4.1 - NR And the Side system 13/07/2007 13:30 Newmarket Ea 5.1:D 13/07/2007 19:00 Chepstow Silver Guest 1.76:D 13/07/2007 19:10 Chester Captain Gerrard 2.32:wall 13/07/2007 20:50 Hamilton Alambic 1.83:D 13/07/2007 21:10 Chester Court of Appeal 3.75:D A good day with profit seen all round. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 159 Winning Lays: 124 Strike rate: 78% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1192pts after commission Profit/Loss: +192pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 42 Winning Lays: 32 Strike rate:76% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 706pts after commission Profit/Loss: -294pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 201 Winning Lays: 156 Strike rate: 78% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 898pts after commission Profit/Loss: -102pts For the record the side system is showing a 74% strike rate with a profit of 69.7 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Dragon Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Congrats on another excellent set of results. :notworthy :clap :clap Is the side system still a paper trial? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 14, 2007 Author Share Posted July 14, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Pegasus I just had a quick look at the past results and what struck me was the success rates of lays (from your main picks) under say 3.5 or 3.4. Have you ever thought of filtering you picks to something similar? Maybe if you get time at some stage you could check what the position would be for lays under 3.5? You may be surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Dragon Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Thanks "Yes the side system is still a paper trial. In truth I've put very little money on the main system too as yet - I don't have a BF balance big enough to lay them all at the start of the day, and, don't get time to keep placing bets during the day (bloodly work interfere's with everything!)" End of Quote. I layed a few of your main choices during the week BUT like yourself have a low Betfair balance. I tended to avoid any lays over 5 because the loss (if a horse won) is quite high. All that really happened was i lost the money I won so I neither made a loss or a profit! I remember reading elsewhere on this forum that you must always bet on the horses that your system picks for you even when you mind says not to. Following your system (but not betting on every horse it has selected) has so far confirmed this. I'm probably speaking to the wise here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 14, 2007 Author Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Pegasus I just had a quick look at the past results and what struck me was the success rates of lays (from your main picks) under say 3.5 or 3.4. Have you ever thought of filtering you picks to something similar? Maybe if you get time at some stage you could check what the position would be for lays under 3.5? You may be surprised. Using a very quick analysis I make it 48 lays at 3.5 or under for a total profit of 30.5pts Not bad if you're uncomfortable laying higher odds but still a bit off the 192 pts profit of laying all under 6.0 Laying at 5.5 or under shows a higher profit of 205 pts at the moment so it might be worth refining the Under 6.0 to be 5.5 or under - but it's still early days and whilst 150+ lays is some data it's still subject to variance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 14, 2007 Author Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial I'm glad you didn't make a loss following my selections. I actually think that the side system will prove a bigger success soon because the average price of the lay will be lower than the main system. If it's current strike rate keeps up I'll be more than happy. It's much easier to follow through the bad times if the lay price is low. Keep an eye on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Using a very quick analysis I make it 48 lays at 3.5 or under for a total profit of 30.5pts Not bad if you're uncomfortable laying higher odds but still a bit off the 192 pts profit of laying all under 6.0 Laying at 5.5 or under shows a higher profit of 205 pts at the moment so it might be worth refining the Under 6.0 to be 5.5 or under - but it's still early days and whilst 150+ lays is some data it's still subject to variance. 30 points! Is that all? I think we'll forget that idea then :loon I better go and brush up on my maths :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 14, 2007 Author Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Due to a NR Fortress is no longer a selection Regents Secret & Bivouac are both now NR's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecwc85 Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Don't know if you look at the Racing Post selection when deciding to lay. RP selected Game Lad (lost) Dark Tara (won) Lucayan Dancer (won) I was left with 3 sucessful lays Cross The Line Out After Dark Greek Well Great system many thanks for it :cheers Also RP has selected tonights lays at 1850 Ham Rondo (horse won) 1950 Ham Bajeel (horse lost) 2035 Salis Strong Survivor (was favourite on BF when I looked earlier on, now 2nd fav)Tabouchina was fav and lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Dragon Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Don't know if you look at the Racing Post selection when deciding to lay. RP selected Game Lad (lost) Dark Tara (won) Lucayan Dancer (won) I was left with 3 sucessful lays Cross The Line Out After Dark Greek Well Great system many thanks for it :cheers Also RP has selected tonights lays at 1850 Ham Rondo (won) 1950 Ham Bajeel 2035 Salis Strong Survivor (was favourite on BF when I looked earlier on, now 2nd fav) Hello! How are you using the info on the racing post? Are you only laying the RP selection if it agrees with The Simple laying Trial selections? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecwc85 Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Hello! How are you using the info on the racing post? Are you only laying the RP selection if it agrees with The Simple laying Trial selections? I am picking out the selections from the system given by pegasus but then I am looking at the RP selection. If the horse is tipped by the RP as its selection I don't lay that horse. So I didn't lay Game Lad, Dark Tara or Lucayan Dancer as they were the selection in the RP although they qualified for a lay using the plan. Hope it make sense:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 14, 2007 Author Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial I am picking out the selections from the system given by pegasus but then I am looking at the RP selection. If the horse is tipped by the RP as its selection I don't lay that horse. So I didn't lay Game Lad, Dark Tara or Lucayan Dancer as they were the selection in the RP although they qualified for a lay using the plan. Hope it make sense:ok I started to record that information a couple of weeks ago and have noticed a good stirke rate where the RP too does not favour the horse. Looking back on my stats there are 30 horses that have fitted the criteria (I haven't recorded it for all 160 lays to date). Of those 30 horses only 3 have won so it gives a strike rate of 90% and a profit of 110pts. That does however take into account runners over 6.0. Exclude those and you're down to 17 horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 15, 2007 Author Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's Selections: 14/07/2007 15:00 Chester Lucayan Dancer 4.3:wall 14/07/2007 15:15 York Greek Well 6.6:) 14/07/2007 15:50 York Game Lad 7.6:) 14/07/2007 16:00 Ascot Cross The Line 5.4:) 14/07/2007 16:25 York Dark Tara 4.1:wall 14/07/2007 16:35 Ascot Out After Dark 4.2:) 14/07/2007 18:50 Hamilton Rondo 6.8:wall 14/07/2007 19:50 Hamilton Bajeel 4:) 14/07/2007 20:35 Salisbury Tibouchina 6.8:) 14/07/2007 20:50 Hamilton Regent's Secret 5 - NR 14/07/2007 21:20 Hamilton Bivouac 4.1 - NR and the side system: 14/07/2007 14:15 Ascot Baffled 2.1:) 14/07/2007 14:50 Ascot Cesare 3.15:wall 14/07/2007 21:05 Salisbury Gyroscope 2.84:) Not a great day with all systems showing a loss on the day. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 164 Winning Lays: 127 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1156.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: +156.5pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 46 Winning Lays: 35 Strike rate:76% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 676.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -323.5pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 210 Winning Lays: 162 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 833pts after commission Profit/Loss: -167pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 15, 2007 Author Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's Selections: 15/07/2007 14:20 Haydock Royal Flynn 4.4 15/07/2007 15:00 Stratford Orpen Wide 6.8 15/07/2007 15:20 Haydock Stonecrabstomorrow 3.95 15/07/2007 16:20 Haydock Apache Nation 5.2 Side System: 15/07/2007 17:10 Perth That'll Do Nicely 3.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 15, 2007 Author Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's Selections: 15/07/2007 14:20 Haydock Royal Flynn 4.4:wall 15/07/2007 15:00 Stratford Orpen Wide 6.8:) 15/07/2007 15:20 Haydock Stonecrabstomorrow 3.95:) 15/07/2007 16:20 Haydock Apache Nation 5.2:) Side System: 15/07/2007 17:10 Perth That'll Do Nicely 3.85:) Another losing day but only a small loss. On a positive note the side system shows another winner and is looking very promising. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 167 Winning Lays: 129 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1141.4pts after commission Profit/Loss: +141.1pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 47 Winning Lays: 36 Strike rate:77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 686pts after commission Profit/Loss: -314pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 214 Winning Lays: 165 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 827.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -172.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 15, 2007 Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Another losing day but only a small loss. On a positive note the side system shows another winner and is looking very promising. Go on the side system :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 16, 2007 Author Share Posted July 16, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's Selections: 16/07/2007 14:30 Ayr Dressed to Dance 6.2 16/07/2007 15:30 Ayr Elkhorn 3.8 16/07/2007 15:45 Newton Abbot Tom Sayers 5.1 16/07/2007 16:00 Ayr Buachaill Dona 9.2 16/07/2007 18:30 Windsor Imperial Mint 2.34 16/07/2007 20:20 Wolverhampton Phoenix Hill 6.4 16/07/2007 21:00 Windsor Caustic Wit 7 And the side system: 16/07/2007 14:00 Ayr Atabaas Pride 3.35 16/07/2007 18:50 Wolverhampton Birthday Star 5.9 16/07/2007 19:50 Wolverhampton Danish Blues 3.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asificare Posted July 16, 2007 Share Posted July 16, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial watching with great intrest m8 iv matched two of your lays today tom sayers & phonix hill so think ill go for place lays on these two keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Dragon Posted July 16, 2007 Share Posted July 16, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Will someone please explain Betfairs Bet To Be Placed rules. Do you lay three horses in the same race? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redhotdave Posted July 16, 2007 Share Posted July 16, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Just come across your thread - an excellent piece of work, especially the side system! I'm trying to work out the selections for myself, so can I ask why Bethanys Boy(6:50 Wolves) and Fragrancy (7:30 Windsor) weren't selections? Thanks for your work, its much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted July 16, 2007 Author Share Posted July 16, 2007 Re: Simple Laying System Trial Just come across your thread - an excellent piece of work, especially the side system! I'm trying to work out the selections for myself, so can I ask why Bethanys Boy(6:50 Wolves) and Fragrancy (7:30 Windsor) weren't selections? Thanks for your work, its much appreciated. The main system selection rules are listed earlier in the thread. Both of those selections you've highlighted would be choosen at this point in time. However when I looked earlier in the day I guess that neither were the favourite in the betting (at that time). I'll note the result of these two with interest as they do fulfill the criteria but I'll not add them in to my figures. The way the system works means that a selection at 11am may not be a selection at 1pm due to changes in the betting and NR's. Unfortunately I work all day so only get to look at the choices at one point in the day - if I had the opportunity I think I'd check 5 minutes before the off and only lay them at that point particularly because for the most part the prices seem to drop and therefore the system would be more profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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