Simple Laying System Trial

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's selections for the main system are:

06/07/2007	14:05	Sandown	Out After Dark	4.8:)
06/07/2007	14:40	Sandown	Regal Step	5.2:)
06/07/2007	16:15	Wolverhampton	Alma Mater	2.1:nana
06/07/2007	18:45	Beverley	Secret Asset	2.98 - NR
06/07/2007	20:45	Beverley	Sudden Impulse	4.3:)

Again a few selections from the side system:

06/07/2007	15:05	Wolverhampton	Champagne Shadow	3.25:wall
06/07/2007	15:15	Sandown	Scintillo	2.5:wall
06/07/2007	15:50	Sandown	Blue Bajan	3.1:)
06/07/2007	17:40	Warwick	Hi Dancer	2.28:)

4/4 in the main system including Alma Mater which had an SP of 1/2. The side system has 2/4 but since these are all likely to be short priced favourites and the 3 winners yesterday I'm not unhappy about that. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 129 Winning Lays: 102 Strike rate: 79% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1160.3pts after commission Profit/Loss: +160.3pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 30 Winning Lays: 21 Strike rate:70% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 689.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -310.5pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 159 Winning Lays: 123 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 849.8pts after commission Profit/Loss: -150.2pts

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Only one qualifier under 6 today, one over 6 and 2 from the side system.

07/07/2007	14:35	Sandown	Mutanaseb	6.2
07/07/2007	15:45	Sandown	Treat	3.95

Side system

07/07/2007	15:15	Sandown	Authorised	1.64
07/07/2007	17:00	Beverley	Royal Flynn	3

I will try to update the lay prices later on as in general they seem to drop which could make Mutanaseb a qualifier.

[Hellblazer]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Great run so far (main system). Nice one! Four complete days with no horse wins.

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Great run so far (main system). Nice one! Four complete days with no horse wins.

Cheers - I'm expecting the side system to have a lower strike rate but also expect the lay prices to be much lower too. I'll update the figures later as I'm running close to the first race today.

08/07/2007	14:10	Market Rasen	Classi Maureen	4.9
08/07/2007	14:50	Ayr	Karmest	7
08/07/2007	15:20	Ayr	Catherines Café	4.2
08/07/2007	16:00	Brighton	Summer Of Love	5.4
08/07/2007	16:20	Ayr	John Keats	6.4
08/07/2007	16:30	Brighton	Moves Goodenough	6.2
08/07/2007	16:50	Ayr	Prince Evelith	3.9

And the side system's selections are:

08/07/2007	14:40	Market Rasen	Bauhaus	1.73
08/07/2007	15:10	Market Rasen	Fortunate Dave	4.4
08/07/2007	15:50	Ayr	Enticing	2.14

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Only one qualifier under 6 today, one over 6 and 2 from the side system.

07/07/2007	14:35	Sandown	Mutanaseb	6.2:D
07/07/2007	15:45	Sandown	Treat	3.95:D

Side system

07/07/2007	15:15	Sandown	Authorised	1.64:dude
07/07/2007	17:00	Beverley	Royal Flynn	3:wall

I will try to update the lay prices later on as in general they seem to drop which could make Mutanaseb a qualifier.

Cheers - I'm expecting the side system to have a lower strike rate but also expect the lay prices to be much lower too. I'll update the figures later as I'm running close to the first race today.

08/07/2007	14:10	Market Rasen	Classi Maureen	4.9:D
08/07/2007	14:50	Ayr	Karmest	7:D
08/07/2007	15:20	Ayr	Catherines Café	4.2:D
08/07/2007	16:00	Brighton	Summer Of Love	5.4:D
08/07/2007	16:20	Ayr	John Keats	6.4:D
08/07/2007	16:30	Brighton	Moves Goodenough	6.2:D
08/07/2007	16:50	Ayr	Prince Evelith	3.9:D

And the side system's selections are:

08/07/2007	14:40	Market Rasen	Bauhaus	1.73:wall
08/07/2007	15:10	Market Rasen	Fortunate Dave	4.4:D
08/07/2007	15:50	Ayr	Enticing	2.14:D

In yesterday's selections I did see Mutanaseb drop below 6.0 on Betfair but because I never posted this I'll keep that in the over 6.0 figures (shame as it's 9.5pts profit missed) Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 134 Winning Lays: 107 Strike rate: 80% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1207.8pts after commission Profit/Loss: +207.8pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 34 Winning Lays: 25 Strike rate:74% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 727.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -272.5pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 168 Winning Lays: 132 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 935.3pts after commission Profit/Loss: -64.7pts I'm pleased with the results of this trial so far (surprised it's still going tbh:loon). Thus since I promised in the first post to reveal the system behind the selections I've set myself the target of getting to 150 lays (Under 6.0) and, if it's still in profit:hope I'll document the system and start following this with money (kiss of death time). I'm also happy with the 66% strike rate of the side system so will continue with the trial. Using the same formulae as the main system this too, is currently showing a profit.

[aelara]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Great stuff. Keep up the good work. :clap

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Only a couple of selections today and no qualifiers for the side system.

09/07/2007	16:00	Musselburgh	Apollo Shark	3.15
09/07/2007	17:00	Musselburgh	Bold Haze	7.4
09/07/2007	20:55	Ripon	Superior Star	5

Since it's a quiet I looked again at the Irish meeting tonight to get this qualifier. Again it won't count towards the overall totals but once I collect enough data it may highlight some possible value.

09/07/2007	20:15	Roscommon	Lateran	6.2

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Only a couple of selections today and no qualifiers for the side system.

09/07/2007	16:00	Musselburgh	Apollo Shark	3.15
09/07/2007	17:00	Musselburgh	Bold Haze	7.4
09/07/2007	20:55	Ripon	Superior Star	5

Since it's a quiet I looked again at the Irish meeting tonight to get this qualifier. Again it won't count towards the overall totals but once I collect enough data it may highlight some possible value.

09/07/2007	20:15	Roscommon	Lateran	6.2

Due to the time gap between the early prices I've updated them to below as the latest price:

09/07/2007	16:00	Musselburgh	Apollo Shark	2.38
09/07/2007	17:00	Musselburgh	Bold Haze	7.2
09/07/2007	20:55	Ripon	Superior Star	4.7

09/07/2007	20:15	Roscommon	Lateran	4.4

[Remmer7]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial So i take it they all now qualify for the under 6.0 section? (Obviously leaving out the overseas) which leaves just 13 to the magic 150 if I am correct :ok

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

So i take it they all now qualify for the under 6.0 section? (Obviously leaving out the overseas) which leaves just 13 to the magic 150 if I am correct :ok

No Bold Haze is still over 6.0, but if it did come down below 6.0 (and I posted it before the off) then yes they would qualify. We'll get to the 150 mark soon enough:)

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Due to the time gap between the early prices I've updated them to below as the latest price:

09/07/2007	16:00	Musselburgh	Apollo Shark	2.38:wall
09/07/2007	17:00	Musselburgh	Bold Haze	7.2:)
09/07/2007	20:55	Ripon	Superior Star	4.7:)

09/07/2007	20:15	Roscommon	Lateran	4.4:)

A small loss on the day but the combined result shows a small profit. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 136 Winning Lays: 108 Strike rate: 79% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1203.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: +203.5pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 35 Winning Lays: 26 Strike rate:74% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 737pts after commission Profit/Loss: -263pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 171 Winning Lays: 134 Strike rate: 78% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 940.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -59.5pts

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's selections in the main system are:

10/07/2007	16:45	Pontefract	Yossi	3.5
10/07/2007	17:15	Pontefract	Kylkenny	3.85
10/07/2007	21:10	Uttoxeter	Uoh Jay	9.8

and the side system are:

10/07/2007	15:30	Lingfield	Red Current	2.38
10/07/2007	15:45	Pontefract	Mandalay Prince	2.14
10/07/2007	19:10	Uttoxeter	Cottingham	2.9

will update the prices later as they generally appear to drop.

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's selections in the main system are:

10/07/2007	16:45	Pontefract	Yossi	3.5:)
10/07/2007	17:15	Pontefract	Kylkenny	3.85:)
10/07/2007	21:10	Uttoxeter	Uoh Jay	9.8:@

and the side system are:

10/07/2007	15:30	Lingfield	Red Current	2.38:@
10/07/2007	15:45	Pontefract	Mandalay Prince	2.14:)
10/07/2007	19:10	Uttoxeter	Cottingham	2.9:)

These over 6.0's are killing these figures. Another good day for the Under 6.0 part of the system and the side system shows another 66% day with a profit so continues to show encouragement. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 138 Winning Lays: 110 Strike rate: 80% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1222.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: +222.5pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 36 Winning Lays: 26 Strike rate:72% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 649pts after commission Profit/Loss: -351pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 174 Winning Lays: 136 Strike rate: 78% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 871.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -128.5pts

[daftpegasus]

[aelara]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Looking good man! At least someones finding selections :lol

[aldric]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Daftpegasus, Great to see this is still going strong!!!! Fingers crossed for more profit to come :clap Aldric

[daftpegasus]

[aldric]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Out of interest Mystic Storm I believe is now a selection, also in the 1820 @ Kempton... You only usually have 1 selection per race and based on the odds and that would be Mystic Storm (4.9) rather than Eastern Empire (7.8)... lets see what happens :ok

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Out of interest Mystic Storm I believe is now a selection, also in the 1820 @ Kempton... You only usually have 1 selection per race and based on the odds and that would be Mystic Storm (4.9) rather than Eastern Empire (7.8)... lets see what happens :ok

Only just saw this as the race started. You're correct that in fact the selection would have been Mystic Storm and not Eastern Empire at that time. They both lost and were both unplaced so it's not affected the overall results

[aldric]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Only just saw this as the race started. You're correct that in fact the selection would have been Mystic Storm and not Eastern Empire at that time. They both lost and were both unplaced so it's not affected the overall results

I guess you have to take the selection at pre-determined time and stick with that selection....... Have you looked at laying the horses NOT to place? Perhaps you could do this when the selections are above 6.0 as it will certainly reduce the risk. I did this with Mystic Storm, the odds were 2.34.

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

I guess you have to take the selection at pre-determined time and stick with that selection....... Have you looked at laying the horses NOT to place? Perhaps you could do this when the selections are above 6.0 as it will certainly reduce the risk. I did this with Mystic Storm, the odds were 2.34.

Yes I have - I record the fact of whether they placed or not. The stats for this would show the following results:

W	39
P	45
U	96

Based on basic calculations I think that the chances are that this too would be in profit. I need to do more analysis to refine it further but I suspect it has potential.

[aldric]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Yes I have - I record the fact of whether they placed or not. The stats for this would show the following results:

W	39
P	45
U	96

Based on basic calculations I think that the chances are that this too would be in profit. I need to do more analysis to refine it further but I suspect it has potential.

Ineed, lots of potential..... :ok

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

An update on the prices at 14:20

11/07/2007	15:30	Catterick	Indonesia	Early Price 4.7	Current Price 4.2:D
11/07/2007	16:30	Lingfield	Marbaa	7.6	11
11/07/2007	17:05	Lingfield	Sun of the Sea	4.7	4.2:wall
11/07/2007	18:20	Kempton	Eastern Emperor	8.6	8.4:D
11/07/2007	18:50	Kempton	Temple of Thebes	3.5	3.3:D
11/07/2007	19:50	Kempton	Bucharest	3.1	3.2:wall
11/07/2007	20:20	Kempton	Electric Warrior	4.4	3.75:wall

A drop in the price for most of them which will help keep profit margins up should any of them win. Marbaa is no longer a selection because it's not one of the favourites in the betting any more.

11/07/2007	16:55	Newmarket	Jack Junior	Early Price 2.16	Current Price 2.12:D
11/07/2007	17:15	Catterick	Gordonsville	1.7	1.78:nana

One up a little, one down a little.

11/07/2007	18:00	Naas	Linsalata	3.95	3.55:D
11/07/2007	20:30	Naas	Head Of The River		5.5:D

Still no realistic lay price for Magnum Force:D in the 21:00 at Naas

A bad day for profits :sad Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 143 Winning Lays: 112 Strike rate: 78% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1160pts after commission Profit/Loss: +160pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 39 Winning Lays: 29 Strike rate:74% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 677.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -322.5pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 182 Winning Lays: 141 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 837.5pts after commission Profit/Loss: -162.5pts

[Red Dragon]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

11/07/2007	13:30	Newmarket	Folly Lodge	6.6
11/07/2007	14:00	Newmarket	Utmost Respect	7.6

What happened to these horses in your updated list?

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

11/07/2007	13:30	Newmarket	Folly Lodge	6.6
11/07/2007	14:00	Newmarket	Utmost Respect	7.6

What happened to these horses in your updated list?

I missed them off the updated lay price list because their race had already finished. However I missed them off yesterday's final table by mistake - thanks for highlighting it :ok. Both lost :) but their stats were included in last night's figures so no improvement there :\

[daftpegasus]

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Uptodate prices for this evenings racing:

12/07/2007	18:20	Folkstone	Pampas	2.56
12/07/2007	19:10	Nottingham	Pick A Nice Name	2.84
12/07/2007	19:20	Folkstone	Almizan	7.6
12/07/2007	19:40	Nottingham	Secret Ploy	5.5
12/07/2007	19:50	Folkstone	Caustic Wit	3.45
12/07/2007	20:50	Folkstone	Princess Lavina	4.8

12/07/2007	18:30	Fairyhouse	Deoraoicht	5.6
12/07/2007	20:30	Fairyhouse	Mac Robin	8.8
12/07/2007	21:00	Fairyhouse	Flames of Fire	6.4

[daftpegasus]

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System OK. We got to the 150 lays under 6.0 and are showing a nice healthy profit and strike rate, so now is the time to fulfill my promise and document the system. Firstly the reasons behind the system. 1) I am no expert in horse racing 2) Whilst I'd love to study form and pick winners using intelligence and hard work, I neither have the skills nor time to do that (at the moment). OK how to choose a horse to lay. 1) Open the attheraces website and choose a race card. At the top of the racecard the site shows the current top 4 in the betting. You're only interested in the top horse in the betting. Note the name of that horse. 2) Scroll to the bottom of the race card and look at whether or not the horse you've noted from 1) above is picked by the ATR experts as one of their 2 selections for that race. 3) If the horse is one of their 2 tips, discard the horse and move onto the next race card. 4) If the horse is not one of their 2 tips then it might be a selection. Check to see if there are any non runners. If either one of the ATR 2 top tips are a NR then your horse is NOT a selection - move onto the next race card. 5) If both the ATR top tips are running, then you have a selection assuming that the lay price is under 6.0 Why do I think this will work. Well I believe I'm tapping into the 'expert' knowledge of the ATR team. They feel that 2 other runners have a decent chance of beating the favourite - they know more about racing than me so it's a decent shout. The method used means that a selection at 10am may not be a selection at 3pm, therefore you could get different results to me doing this yourself. Equally many of the prices do drop as the market picks up liquidity, therefore taking later prices will affect the profitability of this system. Finally a NR announced after a selection is made could influence the selection if the NR is one of the 2 ATR tips. The whole system takes about 15 minutes to collate all the information for the day, which suits my lifestyle at the moment, hence the Simple Laying System title. I'm recording other information about the selections in the hope of finding more filters as the under 6.0 filter was more luck than analysis. Any questions, comments, feedback, critisisum, suggestions welcome:drums

[Red Dragon]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial These are superb results! Well done!