Simple Laying System Trial

[daftpegasus]

[daftpegasus]

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Again as I record the information for this system I start to record more information. Today I recorded, for the first time, whether the lay was placed or unplaced (or a winner). Of the 9 bets in all there was: 1x winner 1x placed 7x unplaced Again a very small sample (I will back test this against the previous weeks results when I get the time), but it implies that the system could work laying to be placed meaning a much reduced liability. Hey, I did say in post one that I was testing this system with a view to working out the best filters. My spreadsheet's becoming a nightmare to follow :lol

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Just back tested the results and found that in all selections except the Irish ones there were: 14xhorses winning the race 18xhorses being placed 42xhorses finishing unplaced Based on a very simple calculation that the place price is the win price divided by 4, this would mean a profit of 29.3 pts. Interesting to note the number of unplaced runners but a profit which does not excited me as much as the under 6 system so far. However it should be noted that 2.93% return after 9 days is not bad.

[Vegas]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Well done and many thanks.:clap

[daftpegasus]

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's Selections:

08/06/2007	14:20	Brighton	Sinead of Aglish	1.92:nana
08/06/2007	16:30	Goodwood	Daniel Thomas	6.4:)
08/06/2007	17:40	Goodwood	Contentious	3.5:wall
08/06/2007	18:10	Goodwood	Croix De Guerre	4.8:)
08/06/2007	18:50	Haydock	Hugs Destiny	4.9:)
08/06/2007	19:10	Towcester	Berkhamstead	4.2:)
08/06/2007	19:50	Haydock	Goodbye	3.5 - NR
08/06/2007	20:20	Haydock	Mickmacmagoole	7.2:wall
08/06/2007	20:30	Wexford	Genuine Easy	6.4:)
08/06/2007	21:20	Haydock	Galianna	3.5:wall

:hope

A small loss on the day for the under 6.0 system and another over 6.0 winner! I can't believe these can continue. If they do then this system is splitting to laying the under 6.0 horses and backing the over 6.0 ones. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 65 Winning Lays: 56 Strike rate: 86% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1273.3pts after commission Profit/Loss: +273.3pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 17 Winning Lays: 9 Strike rate:53% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 635pts after commission Profit/Loss: -364.5pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 82 Winning Lays: 65 Strike rate: 79% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 908.8pts after commission Profit/Loss: -91.2pts On the small plus side the Irish horse was again unplaced so it's still looking good that the system could work on these races.

[daftpegasus]

[swagman]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Hello daftpegasus, your early results look promising :okbut I hope you don't mind me making a suggestion which might lead to a slight improvement. When it comes to laying it is imperative to get the best prices, hard to do as you must generally give a more favourable price than the books and then consider the commission on top. In general a few things can be done to help achieve this including laying faves nearer to race time as prices tend to come in and for others either lay a competitive price at the time and get taken in a price fluctation [also risk it not getting taken]. But the main thing i find is not to lay too early - this is what really prompted me to write, yesterday i noticed you layed Mickmacmagoole for 7.2 at 10.59am for a racing time of 20.20, it had a starting price of 2.87. For late racing I would never lay early on, I don't know what everyone else thinks of this but to me it seems a very risky strategy - I realise a lot of the time people may not be able to get access to a pc when needed but maybes in these cases the lay should just not be made as the system will not be given a fair chance, sort of handicapping the system and not just the horses. As it seems initially a very good system for laying short prices I would be tempted to have a strict cut-off price for laying and try to lay as near to racetime as possible. Hope you don't mind my suggestions it's just that I would hate to see a good system go belly up needlessly. ps Another thought :eyes you could record seperately by taking starting prices and say add 15%[as generally laying low priced horses] to see how it would work if horses layed nearer to the off.:cheers

[BillyHills]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Swagman, this may explain from earlier in the thread.

The system doesn't differentiate between the different types of racing - at this stage it is very simple, either the right conditions are met and it's a selection, or it's not. I'm hoping that by recording everything that I'll find the filters that help make it work. I know what you mean about doing it at 10 in the morning and by doing this process nearer the start of each race would mean that some of the selections were no longer selections (does that make sense?). At the time I check I'm only looking to lay the favourite in a race if it meets certain conditions - a number of the runners close to the off are no longer the favourite and therefore would not be selections within the system. My problem is that I work and whilst I'm lucky in that I can get onto sites like this during the working day, I can't commit to doing this work at 10am and then rechecking 30 minutes or so before the off. On a day when there's fewer selections I might see if I can recheck each horse prior to the off to see if it's still a selection (i.e. still the favourite in the betting).

[aldric]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Hello daftpegasus, your early results look promising :okbut I hope you don't mind me making a suggestion which might lead to a slight improvement. When it comes to laying it is imperative to get the best prices, hard to do as you must generally give a more favourable price than the books and then consider the commission on top. In general a few things can be done to help achieve this including laying faves nearer to race time as prices tend to come in and for others either lay a competitive price at the time and get taken in a price fluctation [also risk it not getting taken]. But the main thing i find is not to lay too early - this is what really prompted me to write, yesterday i noticed you layed Mickmacmagoole for 7.2 at 10.59am for a racing time of 20.20, it had a starting price of 2.87. For late racing I would never lay early on, I don't know what everyone else thinks of this but to me it seems a very risky strategy - I realise a lot of the time people may not be able to get access to a pc when needed but maybes in these cases the lay should just not be made as the system will not be given a fair chance, sort of handicapping the system and not just the horses. As it seems initially a very good system for laying short prices I would be tempted to have a strict cut-off price for laying and try to lay as near to racetime as possible. Hope you don't mind my suggestions it's just that I would hate to see a good system go belly up needlessly.

ps Another thought :eyes you could record seperately by taking starting prices and say add 15%[as generally laying low priced horses] to see how it would work if horses layed nearer to the off.:cheers

Agreed, however it also works the other way for example Daniel Thomas ran in the 1630 at goodwood and was a selection at 6.4.... jus before the off this traded at 13.0!! Nothing in life is easy, possibly the best way to overcome this if doing it for real is using something like autobetfair and specify odds which you are willing to accept. I also believe you can specify a time for the bet to be placed. Aldric

[Dices]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial First of all I don’t have recorded data to support what I will say.

Let’s make a couple of assumptions.

1) Daftpegasus’ ‘Simple Laying System’is profitable with the given recorded lay prices. This means that these odds are smaller than the true-fair prices of these horses (smaller because they are lay prices).

2) Betfair prices are fair. The market is generally fair which I think is acceptable. OK but what time of day these prices are fair? I will assume that they are before the off and I have the feeling that most of you will agree.

If we combine the two above we come to the conclusion that these lay prices will drift and become fair prices before the off, so the best time for laying is the morning.

Of course it is not so easy and others things are also required. For example liquidity is needed to establish a good starting (low) price , system selections will no longer be selections if the price drifts a lot – no value (the example aldric gave at his previous post) etc.

Daftpegasus, will ‘Daniel Tommas’ have been a selection at odds of 13.0?

Just some thoughts ……. and …….comments please?

Dices

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Sorry, I've been away for the weekend so only just seen the dire results of yesterday. Still a day like that was always going to happen. Thanks for all the feedback and comments. I think the prices will counter balance each other over time. There are examples where the price has shortened and also drifted. I have recorded some prices when I've had access to Betfair close to the off, and in about 66% of cases the price has shortened - but this is only a very small record of data (9 runners). In the system there are reasons why, a selection at 10am might not be a selection at 11am, or 5 minutes before the off. I'd love to have the time to spend refining it and making the decision close to the start of the race - but unfortunately I don't and, at this stage, I feel recording it publicly is more important than anything. Hopefully the horse loses anyway which does not affect how much I win! To answer the specfic question - No Daniel Thomas would not have been a selection, it would not have been the favourite in the betting at that price. OK back the the results. After a day with 5 losers from 7 the system has taken a hit but is still in profit under 6.0 Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 72 Winning Lays: 58 Strike rate: 81% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1129.2pts after commission Profit/Loss: +129.2pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 20 Winning Lays: 12 Strike rate:60% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 664pts after commission Profit/Loss: -336pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 92 Winning Lays: 70 Strike rate: 76% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 793.2pts after commission Profit/Loss: -206.8pts

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's Selections:

11/06/2007	14:15	Wolverhampton	Mambazo	5.7
11/06/2007	14:45	Wolverhampton	Areweplayingout	4.1
11/06/2007	16:45	Wolverhampton	Norwegian	5.9

I've only looked at the race meetings on during the day so far. I'll look at this evening's cards later and add more selections from them. :hope:hope

[aliando]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Nothing in life is easy, possibly the best way to overcome this if doing it for real is using something like autobetfair and specify odds which you are willing to accept. I also believe you can specify a time for the bet to be placed.

agree with the autobetfair tool :ok i'm never around during the day to place my bets and have started using this when i feel the odds may shorten closer to the off - i havent found it too difficult to use and its got me some good prices (whilst helping me miss a few big hits too!)

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's Selections:

11/06/2007	14:15	Wolverhampton	Mambazo	5.7
11/06/2007	14:45	Wolverhampton	Areweplayingout	4.1
11/06/2007	16:45	Wolverhampton	Norwegian	5.9

I've only looked at the race meetings on during the day so far. I'll look at this evening's cards later and add more selections from them. :hope:hope

About an hour before the first race Mambazo had shortened to 5.4 however now (10 minutes before the race) the price is out to 6.2 Areweplayingout had lengthened to 4.3 and currently is 4.5 Norwegian had shortened to 5.6 and currently is 5.4

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial In the last few seconds before the off Mambazo's price fluctuated between 5.4 and 6.8 - quite a wide variance and not what I was expecting. :hope it loses

[aldric]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

In the last few seconds before the off Mambazo's price fluctuated between 5.4 and 6.8 - quite a wide variance and not what I was expecting. :hope it loses

Came 3rd...............:ok

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Came 3rd...............:ok

Thanks Mate. I was so busy typing in my previous post I missed the result on Betfair. Had to wait for ATR to post the results. Nice to start the day with a winner.

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial 2 More selections for tonight's meetings plus 2 from Ireland although these don't count towards the figures.

11/06/2007	18:55	Roscommon	Katcharto Lady	2.2
11/06/2007	19:25	Roscommon	Derrygowna Court	4.4
11/06/2007	19:35	Windsor	Faith and Reason	5.2
11/06/2007	21:05	Windsor	Russian Gift	5.6

:hope

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's Selections:

11/06/2007	14:15	Wolverhampton	Mambazo	5.7:)
11/06/2007	14:45	Wolverhampton	Areweplayingout	4.1:wall
11/06/2007	16:45	Wolverhampton	Norwegian	5.9:)

I've only looked at the race meetings on during the day so far. I'll look at this evening's cards later and add more selections from them. :hope:hope

2 More selections for tonight's meetings plus 2 from Ireland although these don't count towards the figures.

11/06/2007	18:55	Roscommon	Katcharto Lady	2.2:wall
11/06/2007	19:25	Roscommon	Derrygowna Court	4.4:)
11/06/2007	19:35	Windsor	Faith and Reason	5.2:)
11/06/2007	21:05	Windsor	Russian Gift	5.6:)

:hope

4/5 under 6.0 makes a small profit for the day. I'm happy to turn around a small profit after Saturday's losses. The first Irish loser in 6 attempts at odds of just over evens is still good figures. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 77 Winning Lays: 62 Strike rate: 81% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1136.2pts after commission Profit/Loss: +136.2pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 20 Winning Lays: 12 Strike rate:60% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 664pts after commission Profit/Loss: -336pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 97 Winning Lays: 74 Strike rate: 76% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 800.2pts after commission Profit/Loss: -199.8pts

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Today's Selections:

12/06/2007	15:15	Salisbury	Cape Velvet	2.5
12/06/2007	16:30	Redcar	Soccer Jackpot	2.72
12/06/2007	16:45	Salisbury	Eldorado	3.55

:hope Again I'll look at the evening racecard later on

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Two more for this evenings racecards:

12/06/2007	19:30	Worcester	Heart Springs	3.65
12/06/2007	20:45	Chester	Yes One	5.8

[aldric]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's Selections:

12/06/2007	15:15	Salisbury	Cape Velvet	2.5
12/06/2007	16:30	Redcar	Soccer Jackpot	2.72
12/06/2007	16:45	Salisbury	Eldorado	3.55

:hope Again I'll look at the evening racecard later on

3/3 all at good odds :ok

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

3/3 all at good odds :ok

Thanks mate - very happy to be laying (and winning at these odds). Would be very nice to get 5/5 today to push that profit figure back up.

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's Selections:

12/06/2007	15:15	Salisbury	Cape Velvet	2.5:D
12/06/2007	16:30	Redcar	Soccer Jackpot	2.72:D
12/06/2007	16:45	Salisbury	Eldorado	3.55:D

:hope Again I'll look at the evening racecard later on

Two more for this evenings racecards:

12/06/2007	19:30	Worcester	Heart Springs	3.65:wall
12/06/2007	20:45	Chester	Yes One	5.8:wall

It was all going so well until the evening cards. A 46pt loss on the day. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 82 Winning Lays: 65 Strike rate: 79% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1090.2pts after commission Profit/Loss: +90.2pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 20 Winning Lays: 12 Strike rate:60% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 664pts after commission Profit/Loss: -336pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 102 Winning Lays: 77 Strike rate: 75% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 754.2pts after commission Profit/Loss: -245.8pts

[daftpegasus]

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Looks like being another very dissappointing day. However here's tonight's selections.

18:40	Hamilton	Whozart	7
19:10	Hamilton	Papillio	1.97
19:20	Kempton	Double Bill	3.15
20:20	Kempton	Revisionist	6.2
21:10	Hamilton	Prince Namid	6

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial

Today's Selections:

13/06/2007	14:30	Brighton	Bucharest	4.1:wall
13/06/2007	14:40	Nottingham	Fragrancy	4.9 NR
13/06/2007	14:50	Beverley	Flying Bantam	4.9:wall
13/06/2007	15:10	Nottingham	Lady Gloria	3.25:)
13/06/2007	15:40	Nottingham	Furbeseta	3.5:)
13/06/2007	16:20	Beverley	Champagne Cracker	7.8:)
13/06/2007	16:30	Brighton	Ishibee	3.6:wall
13/06/2007	16:50	Beverley	Trivia	3.05:wall

:hope Tonight's selections to come later

Looks like being another very dissappointing day. However here's tonight's selections.

18:40	Hamilton	Whozart	7:)
19:10	Hamilton	Papillio	1.97:)
19:20	Kempton	Double Bill	3.15:)
20:20	Kempton	Revisionist	6.2:)
21:10	Hamilton	Prince Namid	6:)

Blimey profit drops fast when you lay a few winners. Results of Lays Under 6.0 Number of Lays: 90 Winning Lays: 69 Strike rate: 77% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 1011.7pts after commission Profit/Loss: +11.7pts Results of lays 6.0+ Number of Lays: 24 Winning Lays: 16 Strike rate:67% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 702pts after commission Profit/Loss: -298pts Combined Results Number of Lays: 114 Winning Lays: 85 Strike rate: 75% Starting Bank 1000pts New Bank: 713.7pts after commission Profit/Loss: -286.3pts

[daftpegasus]

Re: Simple Laying System Trial Could really use a good day today.

14:20	Yarmouth	Sir George	2.34
14:40	Newbury	Circle of Love	3.3
15:00	Lingfield	Scroll	4.7
15:15	Newbury	Oceana Gold	3.95
16:25	Newbury	River Proud	4.6
17:15	Lingfield	Super Sensation	4.5

:hope