aliando Posted May 30, 2007 Author Share Posted May 30, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! odds on = value here imo. Not guaranteed as is correctly favourite but a system pick and I've taken the 1.87 available now as imo it should be more like 2-3/1... Date: 30-5-07 Course: cartmel Race Time: 2.55 Horse: alfonso Bet Type: betfair Odds: 1.87 (taken) :D cheers kev - glad you got on also, and at a good price as alfonso drifted to 11/8 before finishing 2nd :nana Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 2 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 0 Strike rate: 100% New Bank: 2038pts Profit/Loss: +38pts Next Bets To win: 20pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 4 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 2 Strike rate: 100% New Bank (rated against SP): 2076pts Profit/Loss: +76pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 30, 2007 Author Share Posted May 30, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! jeez - loads of races needed closer inspection tonight! left with 4 qualifiers... Date: 31-5-07 Course: lingfield Race Time: 3.30 Horse: khyberie Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-2.50 (requested) Date: 31-5-07 Course: lingfield Race Time: 4.00 Horse: up in arms Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-5.00 (requested) Date: 31-5-07 Course: sandown Race Time: 6.10 Horse: full victory Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-5.00 (requested) Date: 31-5-07 Course: yarmouth Race Time: 4.10 Horse: high ambition Bet Type: autobetfair[url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/autolink.php?id=70&script=showthread&forumid=19] Odds: 1.01-5.00 (requested) my advice is to look at them all and pick the one that matches your own thoughts on the individual horse/race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegas Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Had a computer breakdown. Delighted to see you up and running again with a superb start. Good luck with this.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 31, 2007 Author Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers vegas but its been a pile of shite today which is annoying as it took me ages last night sifting throught the possibles :wall found the wife had 'kindly' switched my computer off for me today, so wasnt on the first 3 and no idea whether i'd have been on (probably lucky i spose since high ambition won) - managed to get it set up again for full victory, got matched and that fcuking won too :wall just to make it even better, if i'd have followed my own advice of only picking the one horse, i'd've been ok :wall:wall:wall perhaps having a NAP each day, may be worth looking at from now on... jeez - loads of races needed closer inspection tonight! left with 4 qualifiers... Date: 31-5-07 Course: lingfield Race Time: 3.30 Horse: khyberie Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-2.50 (requested) Date: 31-5-07 Course: lingfield Race Time: 4.00 Horse: up in arms Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-5.00 (requested) Date: 31-5-07 Course: sandown Race Time: 6.10 Horse: full victory Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-5.00 (requested) Date: 31-5-07 Course: yarmouth Race Time: 4.10 Horse: high ambition Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-5.00 (requested) my advice is to look at them all and pick the one that matches your own thoughts on the individual horse/race khyberie - 4th @ 6/4 up in arms - 8th @ 8/1 high ambition - won @ 9/2 full victory - won @ 11/4 (matched @ 5.00 :wall) - loss of 80pts Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 3 Number of Horses That Won: 1 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 0 Strike rate: 66.67% New Bank: 1958pts Profit/Loss: -42pts Next Bets To win: 20pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 8 Number of Horses That Won: 2 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 4 Strike rate: 75.00% New Bank (rated against SP): 1931pts Profit/Loss: -69pts will continue and hope that the earlier form of this thread continues but may have to shelve it for the winter season if it proves to be not working, as was the case towards the end of the paper trial. so far from 29 horses intially picked, there have been 7 winners of which 6 of these have been flat handicap races, so its a starting point for me to possibly look at eliminating winners. dissapointing though :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Unlucky mate. was it turned off because you ate her doughtnuts.:spank On a serious note , Good luck, :hope I took your advice as well, as regards individual thoughts and only layed the first choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 31, 2007 Author Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Unlucky mate. was it turned off because you ate her doughtnuts.:spank On a serious note , Good luck, :hope I took your advice as well, as regards individual thoughts and only layed the first choice. :lol - i dont think she'll be leaving any more doughnuts around for some time! glad you managed a profit here from today mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 31, 2007 Author Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! not sure if i'm gonna be able to post tomorrows selections as the racing post website doesnt appear to be updated very well - some of the stats i use are different on different pages for some reason - will check back in an hour or so, but if its the same then i'm not risking it. working tomorrow so wont be able to look then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! managed to get enough time this morning and the stats needed are sorted, so have two picks. I will start putting a NAP on horses I strongly fancy (although these 2 are straight forward picks) Date: 1-6-07 Course: catterick Race Time: 4.15 Horse: froissee Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.00 (requested) Date: 1-6-07 Course: epsom Race Time: 4.05 Horse: passage of time Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.00 (requested) quite happy with the current prices trading on betfair, so gonna try to get 3.00 for both here :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! managed to get enough time this morning and the stats needed are sorted, so have two picks. I will start putting a NAP on horses I strongly fancy (although these 2 are straight forward picks) Date: 1-6-07 Course: catterick Race Time: 4.15 Horse: froissee Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.00 (requested) Date: 1-6-07 Course: epsom Race Time: 4.05 Horse: passage of time Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.00 (requested) quite happy with the current prices trading on betfair, so gonna try to get 3.00 for both here :hope:hope :clap :clap :clap If on the auto bet mate, I reckon your sorted, went off 9/4 and 11/4 favs. Nice Result Ali.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers kev - happier to be back on track more than anything :ok managed to get enough time this morning and the stats needed are sorted, so have two picks. I will start putting a NAP on horses I strongly fancy (although these 2 are straight forward picks) Date: 1-6-07 Course: catterick Race Time: 4.15 Horse: froissee Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.00 (requested) Date: 1-6-07 Course: epsom Race Time: 4.05 Horse: passage of time Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.00 (requested) quite happy with the current prices trading on betfair, so gonna try to get 3.00 for both here :hope:hope froissee - 4th @ 11/4f - matched @ 3.00 = profit of 19pts post comission passage of time - 8th @ 9/4f - unmatched Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 4 Number of Horses That Won: 1 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 1 Strike rate: 75.00% New Bank: 1977pts Profit/Loss: -23pts Next Bets To win: 20pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 10 Number of Horses That Won: 2 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 6 Strike rate: 80.00% New Bank (rated against SP): 1969pts Profit/Loss: -31pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! 2 for tomorrow - will update on sunday as i'm 'socialising' tomorrow! both taken with betfair rather than autobetfair as i'll have my computer switched off. Date: 2-6-07 Course: wolves Race Time: 7.40 Horse: always best Bet Type: betfair Odds: 4.00 (requested) Date: 2-6-07 Course: wolves Race Time: 8.10 Horse: drifting gold Bet Type: betfair Odds: 2.50 (requested) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted June 2, 2007 Share Posted June 2, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! 2/2... well done :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 3, 2007 Author Share Posted June 3, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers aldric - no idea yet whether i got matched - will update tonight when i've got more time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 3, 2007 Author Share Posted June 3, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! 2 for tomorrow - will update on sunday as i'm 'socialising' tomorrow! both taken with betfair rather than autobetfair as i'll have my computer switched off. Date: 2-6-07 Course: wolves Race Time: 7.40 Horse: always best Bet Type: betfair Odds: 4.00 (requested) Date: 2-6-07 Course: wolves Race Time: 8.10 Horse: drifting gold Bet Type: betfair Odds: 2.50 (requested) both lost but not matched on either. overall stats return to profit. always best - 10th drifting gold - 2nd Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 4 Number of Horses That Won: 1 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 1 Strike rate: 75.00% New Bank: 1977pts Profit/Loss: -23pts Next Bets To win: 20pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 12 Number of Horses That Won: 2 Number of Horses That Placed: 3 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 7 Strike rate: 83.33% New Bank (rated against SP): 2007pts Profit/Loss: +7pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 3, 2007 Share Posted June 3, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Nice going again Ali. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 3, 2007 Author Share Posted June 3, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers kev - hoping to move on from a rocky start now :hope Date: 3-6-07 Course: carlisle Race Time: 3.50 Horse: expensive art Bet Type: betfair Odds: 4.00 (requested) Date: 3-6-07 Course: carlisle Race Time: 4.20 Horse: princess ellis (NAP) Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.50 (requested) my first nap then - these are the horses i'm more confident that they'll not win (keep watch for a spectacular blooody win now :eyes). I'll start a new stats chart for the naps tomorrow to see how these get on. i'll edit into the first post about recording NAPs now :ok :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 3, 2007 Share Posted June 3, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Good Luck with the Nap's side of it mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 3, 2007 Author Share Posted June 3, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Good Luck with the Nap's side of it mate. cheers kev - its just a further element of trying to eliminate the bloody winners :spank :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 4, 2007 Share Posted June 4, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers kev - hoping to move on from a rocky start now :hope Date: 3-6-07 Course: carlisle Race Time: 3.50 Horse: expensive art Bet Type: betfair Odds: 4.00 (requested) Date: 3-6-07 Course: carlisle Race Time: 4.20 Horse: princess ellis (NAP) Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.50 (requested) my first nap then - these are the horses i'm more confident that they'll not win (keep watch for a spectacular blooody win now :eyes). I'll start a new stats chart for the naps tomorrow to see how these get on. i'll edit into the first post about recording NAPs now :ok :hope:hope :clap :clap :clap Nice going mate.:clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 4, 2007 Author Share Posted June 4, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers again kev - starting to go uphill now and my nap came last but one :D cheers kev - hoping to move on from a rocky start now :hope Date: 3-6-07 Course: carlisle Race Time: 3.50 Horse: expensive art Bet Type: betfair Odds: 4.00 (requested) Date: 3-6-07 Course: carlisle Race Time: 4.20 Horse: princess ellis (NAP) Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.50 (requested) my first nap then - these are the horses i'm more confident that they'll not win (keep watch for a spectacular blooody win now :eyes). I'll start a new stats chart for the naps tomorrow to see how these get on. i'll edit into the first post about recording NAPs now :ok :hope:hope expensive art - non-runner princess ellis - finished 7/8 - matched @ 3.50, returns 19pts post commission:nana Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 5 Number of Horses That Won: 1 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 2 Strike rate: 80.00% New Bank: 1996pts Profit/Loss: -4pts Next Bets To win: 20pts NAPS Number of Horses Chosen: 1 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 0 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 1 Strike rate: 100% Profit/Loss: +19pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 14 Non-Runners: 1 Number of Horses That Ran: 13 Number of Horses That Won: 2 Number of Horses That Placed: 3 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 8 Strike rate: 84.62% New Bank (rated against SP): 2026pts Profit/Loss: +26pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 4, 2007 Author Share Posted June 4, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Date: 5-6-07 Course: lingfield Race Time: 2.15 Horse: leonard charles Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-3.00 (requested) Date: 5-6-07 Course: southwell Race Time: 7.40 Horse: cragganmore creek Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (requested) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 5, 2007 Author Share Posted June 5, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Date: 5-6-07 Course: lingfield Race Time: 2.15 Horse: leonard charles Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-3.00 (requested) Date: 5-6-07 Course: southwell Race Time: 7.40 Horse: cragganmore creek Bet Type: autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (requested) :wall leonard charlse - won @ 5/1 - unmatched craggmore creek - 7th @ 6/1 - unmatched Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 5 Number of Horses That Won: 1 Number of Horses That Placed: 2 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 2 Strike rate: 80.00% New Bank: 1996pts Profit/Loss: -4pts Next Bets To win: 20pts NAPS Number of Horses Chosen: 1 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 0 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 1 Strike rate: 100% Profit/Loss: +19pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 16 Non-Runners: 1 Number of Horses That Ran: 15 Number of Horses That Won: 3 Number of Horses That Placed: 3 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 9 Strike rate: 80.00% New Bank (rated against SP): 1945pts Profit/Loss: -55pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 5, 2007 Author Share Posted June 5, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! just the one for tomorrow and i'll be away from this thread for a few days as i'm back on nights for the rest of the week, and i just wont have the time to get all the work done for this thread before i set off each night. Date: 6-6-07 Course: sedgefield Race Time: 4.30 Horse: nesnaas Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.25 (requested) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 6, 2007 Author Share Posted June 6, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! just the one for tomorrow and i'll be away from this thread for a few days as i'm back on nights for the rest of the week, and i just wont have the time to get all the work done for this thread before i set off each night. Date: 6-6-07 Course: sedgefield Race Time: 4.30 Horse: nesnaas Bet Type: betfair Odds: 3.25 (requested) :nana nesnaas - 3rd @ 3/1 j-f - matched @ 3.25 Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 6 Number of Horses That Won: 1 Number of Horses That Placed: 3 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 2 Strike rate: 83.33% New Bank: 2015pts Profit/Loss: +15pts Next Bets To win: 20pts NAPS Number of Horses Chosen: 1 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 0 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 1 Strike rate: 100% Profit/Loss: +19pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 17 Non-Runners: 1 Number of Horses That Ran: 16 Number of Horses That Won: 3 Number of Horses That Placed: 4 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 9 Strike rate: 81.25% New Bank (rated against SP): 1964pts Profit/Loss: -36pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 6, 2007 Share Posted June 6, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Glad the earlier winer was not matched. Been working all weekend, so not been checking, Good to see a winner today and matched.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 11, 2007 Author Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! i have 3 nights off, so chance for a few more losers, hopefully! 1 possible value bet today... Date: 11-6-07 Course: pontefract Race Time: 7.15 Horse: alambic Bet Type: betfair Odds: 2.30 (requested) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! i have 3 nights off, so chance for a few more losers, hopefully! 1 possible value bet today... Date: 11-6-07 Course: pontefract Race Time: 7.15 Horse: alambic Bet Type: betfair Odds: 2.30 (requested) :clap :clap Well done Ali.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 12, 2007 Author Share Posted June 12, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers kev - didnt get chance to look at the horses for today, but will put up tomorrows later. i have 3 nights off, so chance for a few more losers, hopefully! 1 possible value bet today... Date: 11-6-07 Course: pontefract Race Time: 7.15 Horse: alambic Bet Type: betfair Odds: 2.30 (requested) :nana 2nd @ 11/8 fav - matched @ 2.30 = 19pts profit post commission Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 7 Number of Horses That Won: 1 Number of Horses That Placed: 4 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 2 Strike rate: 85.71% New Bank: 2034pts Profit/Loss: +34pts Next Bets To win: 20pts NAPS Number of Horses Chosen: 1 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 0 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 1 Strike rate: 100% Profit/Loss: +19pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 18 Non-Runners: 1 Number of Horses That Ran: 17 Number of Horses That Won: 3 Number of Horses That Placed: 5 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 9 Strike rate: 82.35% New Bank (rated against SP): 1983pts Profit/Loss: -17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 13, 2007 Author Share Posted June 13, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! no selections for today and i'm starting nights again tonight :wall so will probably return to this next week :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! first real chance i've had to look at this in a week and no selections :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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