aliando Posted May 26, 2007 Share Posted May 26, 2007 Perhaps the one some of you have been waiting for, and hopefully not the one that will crash and burn :hope This thread is based upon the paper trial that can be found here - http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44242 Hopefully I've learnt a few things along the way and tightened up the criteria suitably. From the last stages of the paper trial it can be seen that there was a wobble in form, so it may be advisable to see how I start before any money follows these tips. There is a criteria I use but I do not follow it to the letter. I'm not gonna go through it, because it may change over time as it has done already but the premise of it is looking for value. Lay bets will be taken through betfair and I shall be using autobetfair when I'm not able to bet prior to the actual race which is likely to be the vast majority of the time. In the paper trial, I have taken whatever odds were at SP, but now its for real money, I shall be stipulating at what odds I'll be looking for (generally it will involve a maximum price if using autobetfair or the price taken if I'm able to). I will not be taking horses at big prices due to the risk of a few bad hits I will post bets up with as much time to spare as possible and intend to post every day even if just to say 'no bets today' although work/family commitments will mean I may have to miss out this thread every now and then. I will start with a bank of 2000pts and on the start of each day I'll take each lay to win 1% of the days starting bank. By using autobetfair I cannot guarantee that I'll get matched on my prices, so I'll run 2 profit/loss tabs, one for matched horses and one for all horses tipped. Bets will be placed using this format; Date: Course: Race Time: Horse: Bet Type: Betfair/Autobetfair Odds: (Taken/Requested) EDIT (3/6/07) - from this date I will be keeping track of the tips that I NAP (hose that I feel have that much less chance of winning) within the stats records. I'll be keeping a more in-depth analysis of horses from this thread to further try and alienate winning horses - I'll also keep track of discarded horses in an effort to perhaps add in horses that have previously been needlessly discarded. I wont be starting a betting thread for the discarded horses at this time. I would like to say thanks for all the support I have had through the paper trial :clap if anyone spots any ways to improve the thread please feel free to suggest it - cant say I'll take on board all suggestions but we're all here to beat the bookies, so happy to listen :ok I'll start with tomorrows cards now :hope If anything changes from the above, I will edit this post so that the thread explanation is easy to find :ok :hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 26, 2007 Author Share Posted May 26, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! well, you probably saw it coming but NO BETS for Sunday 27/5/07! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 26, 2007 Share Posted May 26, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! well' date=' you probably saw it coming but NO BETS for Sunday 27/5/07![/quote'] Shame.:wall Wish you all the best with this now Ali, Hope it proves to be a nice profitable thread.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 26, 2007 Author Share Posted May 26, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Shame.:wall Wish you all the best with this now Ali, Hope it proves to be a nice profitable thread.:ok cheers kev :cheers the expectations are high here and my money will be riding on all bets placed so :hope:hope:hope for us all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted May 26, 2007 Share Posted May 26, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Good luck with this, glad to see you are taking the plunge!!!!!!!! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 26, 2007 Author Share Posted May 26, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Good luck with this, glad to see you are taking the plunge!!!!!!!! :hope cheers aldric :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Really hope this works out for you mate, I'll be checking back with interest and maybe dabbling with a few of your selections myself. Best of luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Good luck mate. I will also be following with interest. Will also follow with real money on my days off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Really hope this works out for you mate, I'll be checking back with interest and maybe dabbling with a few of your selections myself. Best of luck. :ok cheers nehemiah - just flicking through tomorrows cards and hoping to find some value. One horse so far to look at - will post up later when done :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Good luck mate. I will also be following with interest. Will also follow with real money on my days off. cheers staffy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munki Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Best of luck with this Ali...will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! well :hope folks - here goes! Date: 28-5-07 Course: redcar Race Time: 2.40 Horse: yo pedro Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (Requested) Date: 28-5-07 Course: leicester Race Time: 2.35 Horse: rowan lodge Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (Requested) again, it may be advisable to watch in case of continued bad form form the papaer trial, but my money is going down on anything i tip in here now :unsure and different from before, I'm now applying prices that i want met in order to place the bet - I'll set up autobetfair in the morning and if they match, great, if they dont, they still be added into the overall stats :ok :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Best of luck with this Ali...will follow with interest. cheers munki :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! I'm off tomorrow mate so ill be on. Can you explain what Auto Betfair is mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! I'm off tomorrow mate so ill be on. Can you explain what Auto Betfair is mate. :hope :unsure not easily mate :lol Autobetfair is a beta testing tool from betfair which can be set up to place bets for you at a specified time before the race is off (see - http://labs.betfair.com/labs.aspx ). seems like its work in progress and there are a number of people who have found it to have some bugs, but i've had a little nibble at it and it seemed ok (so far at least!). It solves the "i'm not able to post bets close to the off" problem i had with the paper trial and allows you to choose what odds range you are happy to accept along with whether you want to take best offer at that time or next best for example. I'll be setting it up to put the bets on around 15-20mins prior to the off and take the best available odds within my specified range. I wont be using the in-play option. seems to be fairly easy to set up - i managed it! :eek :hope it works and my horses dont ;) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Date: 28-5-07 Course: redcar Race Time: 2.40 Horse: yo pedro Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (Requested) Date: 28-5-07 Course: leicester Race Time: 2.35 Horse: rowan lodge Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (Requested) sorry folks - just to clarify - each bet will be to win 20pts each (1% of bank) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Cheers ali. I will probably leave it alone for now. I will play on my days off only unless can get the odds before work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 28, 2007 Author Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Date: 28-5-07 Course: redcar Race Time: 2.40 Horse: yo pedro Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (Requested) Date: 28-5-07 Course: leicester Race Time: 2.35 Horse: rowan lodge Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-4.00 (Requested) each bet will be to win 20pts each (1% of bank) :ok :nana or should that be phew - good start! rowan lodge finished 4th @ 9/2 - not matched :\ yo pedro finished 2nd @ 11/4 - matched @ 3.57. Returns 19pts post commission. Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 1 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 1 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 0 Strike rate: 100% New Bank: 2019pts Profit/Loss: +19pts Next Bets To win: 20pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 2 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 1 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 1 Strike rate: 100% New Bank (rated against SP): 2038pts Profit/Loss: +38pts just to explain that the new bank for the All Chosen Horses stats will include the amount that would've been won if matched minus the SP times stake of horses that actually win. Hope that makes sense! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 28, 2007 Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! :clap :clap :clap Well done .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted May 28, 2007 Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Good luck mate, :hope I''ll be with you after some days. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted May 28, 2007 Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Nice one indeed Ali. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 28, 2007 Author Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers kev - relived to get a winning start! one value one for tomorrow - seems worth taking if at small odds; Date: 29-5-07 Course: redcar Race Time: 4.50 Horse: multitude Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-2.50 (Requested) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 28, 2007 Author Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheer dices & staffy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Only just seen this. Best of luck mate. :hope Glad you've finally taken the plunge! :loon I shall probably be with you, time permitting. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! cheers hodgey - got the time to get more involved with this now! :ok one value one for tomorrow - seems worth taking if at small odds; Date: 29-5-07 Course: redcar Race Time: 4.50 Horse: multitude Bet Type: Autobetfair Odds: 1.01-2.50 (Requested) finished 4th @ 4/1, but unmatched on betfair due to price drifting. Matched Bets Number of Horses Matched: 1 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 1 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 0 Strike rate: 100% New Bank: 2019pts Profit/Loss: +19pts Next Bets To win: 20pts All Horses Chosen Number of Horses Chosen: 3 Number of Horses That Won: 0 Number of Horses That Placed: 1 Number of Horses That Finished Unplaced: 2 Strike rate: 100% New Bank (rated against SP): 2057pts Profit/Loss: +38pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Got 3.35 for a very small lay as i liked it myself. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! Got 3.35 for a very small lay as i liked it myself. Good luck nice one mate :clap i'm more likely to be a bit more adventurous if i'm aound during/before the races and can get more info, but that may not be often. glad to know that it made someone money though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! odds on = value here imo. Not guaranteed as is correctly favourite but a system pick and I've taken the 1.87 available now as imo it should be more like 2-3/1... Date: 30-5-07 Course: cartmel Race Time: 2.55 Horse: alfonso Bet Type: betfair Odds: 1.87 (taken) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! nice result today, even if you were not on it as the odds when a shade to big. :hope For tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 30, 2007 Share Posted May 30, 2007 Re: Lay Down and Really Die! odds on = value here imo. Not guaranteed as is correctly favourite but a system pick and I've taken the 1.87 available now as imo it should be more like 2-3/1... Date: 30-5-07 Course: cartmel Race Time: 2.55 Horse: alfonso Bet Type: betfair Odds: 1.87 (taken) :clap :clap :clap layed it at 1.97.:clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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