betfair v. expected SP/final SP

[aliando]

just trying to get an idea if any of you good folks have looked... what kind of betfair prices can you normally get on betfair for horses compared to expected SP's and final SP's. I'm looking at horses under 10/1 and normally one of the favourites. I'm aware that you can get higher prices but what about lower or equal than final SP? and what about just before the off - how close are the prices then? I'm aware that there is no simple answer but not sure if there is ANY answer. I'm trying to look at the prices on betfair the night before a race and compare it to SP.

[BillyHills]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP Ali, all i can say is that i often need to bet the night before and I'm continually frustrated at the crap prices i usually take, now and again it works out the opposite but in my experience the more liquidity the better the odds. Obviously not so when overnight gambles take place but unless you are in the know or online at the time you dont get to see them anyway. I hate leaving unmatched bets because i cant always get back on to see if ive got a bet on. As a rule i reckon the Betfair prices in the price range you state are pretty accurate with a slight edge in betfairs advantage, i find that if a horse is say 6/4 in the shops you will get 13/8 on Betfair quite comfortably. I must say that the Racing Post f/cast SP's are not so good these days, dont know why to be honest maybe one of the reasons is the amount of bloody NR's we get since the 48hr dec rule came in. At one time you could leave a bet unmatched going on the RP guide price and be pretty sure it will get matched by the time the off but not anymore which is why i dont like leaving them unmatched, i hate missing winners, i'd sooner take a slightly shorter price, its hard enough to find them in the first place.

[aliando]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP cheers billy looking at the first post i've left out that i'm looking at laying the horses so if the betfair prices are not too wild then it may be ok. I'm gonna test out the autobetfair tool which hodgey pointed me towards and if i can get this sorted then I'll be setting the 'lay down and die' glory hunters thread back up with real money have got a bit more time and energy about me now to get this back on track! I've put a couple of bets for today into autobetfair and will start tracking results of the actual prices for now - once i've got this sorted, the real money thread will return.

[Vegas]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP Look forward to your return. It was a most promising thread.:clap

[aliando]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP cheers vegas :ok good news is that autobetfair seemed to work today - put 2 bets down, one matched and both horses nowhere, so i just need to work out what starting bank i can afford to lose and which staking plan to use (although the work down for me by hodgey seems to be the way). real money thread likely to be up and running by the end of the weekend, hopefully :hope

[MetallicIan]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP Just a bit of personal experience with AutoBF Ali. I left it running whilst I was out and expected to see a nice profit when I got back as I had heard the result of one of the races. Because another horse in the same race had been declared a NR just before the off AutoBF didn't put any of the bets on even though the odds range was still valid. Now I know of this "bug" I don't use it anymore.

[aliando]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP thanks metallician - being new to it can i just ask whether the "auto up-date for reduction factors" option was on there when you used it (i may be wrong but believe that this function takes care of the non-runner scenario)?

[MetallicIan]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP

thanks metallician - being new to it can i just ask whether the "auto up-date for reduction factors" option was on there when you used it (i may be wrong but believe that this function takes care of the non-runner scenario)?

Hmm, not sure whether it had this feature when I used it last Ali. There were also some "missed" bets when I tried to place Back and Lay bets on different horses in the same race. There is a discussion of same on the BF forum at the mo under "General Betting - Auto bf". I just haven't got 100% confidence in it so I leave it. That's not to deter you though mate if you find it does the buisness. I liked the user friendly interface which is a lot simpler to use than the others out there. Also, in their defence it is only a Beta test tool under the development tools section.

[aliando]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP

Hmm, not sure whether it had this feature when I used it last Ali. There were also some "missed" bets when I tried to place Back and Lay bets on different horses in the same race. There is a discussion of same on the BF forum at the mo under "General Betting - Auto bf". I just haven't got 100% confidence in it so I leave it. That's not to deter you though mate if you find it does the buisness. I liked the user friendly interface which is a lot simpler to use than the others out there. Also, in their defence it is only a Beta test tool under the development tools section.

:ok just had a look and also under the beta section - lot of bad reviews there :unsure not sure why my first bet wasnt accepted but not sure it was in the odds range (wouldnt have been far off though!) second bet worked fine and account fiver up :ok will keep an eye on those threads (first time i've looked at the betfair forums, and cant see why people are there and not here unless they've been banned from here :lol - doesnt look good and saw a good few martingale chasers :eek)

[kevsul]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP Good Luck Ali, Looking forward to your return in the glory hunters.

[aliando]

Re: betfair v. expected SP/final SP

Good Luck Ali' date=' Looking forward to your return in the glory hunters.[/quote'] :ok need to catch up on a few threads but gonna take a few weeks to get them all back up and running - this one will be first up :hope