new idea on prices. why do we bother?

[merlin]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? .... yep, good discussion and several different viewpoints, all boils down in the long run to how each and every individual defines value and how they would best put it to good use.;)

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

.... yep, good discussion and several different viewpoints, all boils down in the long run to how each and every individual defines value and how they would best put it to good use.;)

No it doesn't. There is no individual definition of value. Something is either value or it is not. You only know if you are finding value by if you are making a consistent profit (this is the only way to put it to use). The individual part comes from how you FIND the value. Have you read Joe Buchdahl's book? You really should give it a read: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fixed-Odds-Sports-Betting-Statistical/dp/1843440199/ref=sr_1_1/202-9684589-8284614?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1179778457&sr=8-1

[merlin]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? .... I say there is a definition of value and how each individual perceives that definition, and the process adopted by way of the method used to obtain that value.Judging by the replies on this thread since its first introduction, I would say that there are distinct definitions.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? Nobody will win this argument, because nobody can win it, value is opinionated and that's that.

[merlin]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? .... subject closed as far as I am concerned Paul, there can be no winners as you say.

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Nobody will win this argument' date=' because nobody can win it, value is opinionated and that's that.[/quote'] Just because you say 'that's that' doesn't make it so.:eyes You've given absolutely no coherent rational argument to back up your point of view. Explain to me why not being able to absolutely know the correct price implies that one doesn't exist. Maybe I should have taken Cavelloman's advice 3 pages ago and stopped trying to discuss the bleeding obvious.:\

[2good4u]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Nobody will win this argument' date=' because nobody can win it, value is opinionated and that's that.[/quote'] 100% agree with this. If someone says there is 40% chances that team A will win and therefore odds of 2.00 are not value what does it mean? It means that person beleives odds of 2.00 are not value. Another person might say there is 60% chances for a win and therefore odds of 2.00 are value for that person. Anyway, I want only to mention something from another thread "sport betting is for winners". Some people there posted that anyone living from betting is placing only value bets (which in theory should bring profit in the long run)and has a good staking plan. What I disagree with is following: 1. How anyone who lives from betting can have a bank at all? My definition of living from betting is that betting is the only source of income for that person. Therefore, from what money that person will be paying his rent, food, clothes, daily expenses, not to mention some emergency situations? I do not see how anyone can define a "bank" since its amount is changed every time you buy a pack of ciggaretes or a beer? 2. What is considered a long run (again for persons who live from betting) that should bring a profit? What happens if in one month you had a bad run? Do you stop paying your expenses, buying food, etc... Or if you made let's say 20% increase in your so-called "bank" but expenses in that month were 30% of your "bank". I have been in such situation (luckily for only a couple of months) between two jobs and I can tell you that you can forget all the theories and that "long run" that in theory should bring you profit lasts a week or two. When faced with something like that (very unpleasent and stresfull) you can only hope you will pick a winner. I know many of you do not agree with picking winners but like Paul Ross said value is 100% subjective definition of something and therefore I do not see any difference between that and picking winners.

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

100% agree with this. If someone says there is 40% chances that team A will win and therefore odds of 2.00 are not value what does it mean? It means that person beleives odds of 2.00 are not value. Another person might say there is 60% chances for a win and therefore odds of 2.00 are value for that person.

Fair enough. There is no disagreement that people may disagree over what is and what is not value. However they may be wrong or right. Why can't people see this? Last go at this, I haven't got the time or inclination to try to explain gambling 101. Imagine a coin flip: I offer you odds of 1.9 on heads: Do you take it? I offer you odds of 2.1 on heads: Do you take it? Now, everyone will agree (hopefully) that odds of 1.9 are not value, everyone will agree that odds of 2.1 are value and everyone will agree that THE CORRECT ODDS ARE VERY VERY CLOSE TO 2.0. Now this is no different to any event upon which you care to gamble. The only difference being that you do not know for certain what is value, and everyone's opinion may differ (if it didn't we wouldn't be here). BUT!!! The fact that you don't know for sure what the correct odds should be does not mean that the corect odds do not exist.

Anyway, I want only to mention something from another thread "sport betting is for winners". Some people there posted that anyone living from betting is placing only value bets (which in theory should bring profit in the long run)and has a good staking plan. What I disagree with is following: 1. How anyone who lives from betting can have a bank at all? My definition of living from betting is that betting is the only source of income for that person. Therefore, from what money that person will be paying his rent, food, clothes, daily expenses, not to mention some emergency situations? I do not see how anyone can define a "bank" since its amount is changed every time you buy a pack of ciggaretes or a beer? 2. What is considered a long run (again for persons who live from betting) that should bring a profit? What happens if in one month you had a bad run? Do you stop paying your expenses, buying food, etc... Or if you made let's say 20% increase in your so-called "bank" but expenses in that month were 30% of your "bank". I have been in such situation (luckily for only a couple of months) between two jobs and I can tell you that you can forget all the theories and that "long run" that in theory should bring you profit lasts a week or two. When faced with something like that (very unpleasent and stresfull) you can only hope you will pick a winner. I know many of you do not agree with picking winners but like Paul Ross said value is 100% subjective definition of something and therefore I do not see any difference between that and picking winners.

Very, very last word on this subject. You could pick 90 out of a hundred selections. If you didn't get the value you haven't made a profit. Simple. As. That.

[2good4u]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? Coin toss/die toss/roullete examples are very, very good for theory but only for theory and no argument about that. I absolutelly agree with your example but like you said "why people can't see" that it is not applicable to soccer, basketball, tennis, etc simply because conditions and probabilities for every coin toss/roullete spin are always the same and for a soccer game (or any event involving humans) they are never the same nor they will ever be repeated. I wrote already in another thread that a casino owners won't change odds on roullete just because all the people decided to place their bets on the same number while in soccer is completely different story. And to your last point: you can bet on every "value bet" throughout all your life and still not have a profit (low strike rate) and it is as simple as that. My question is: how you prove that betting on value in a long run brings profit??? (exclude coin/roullete examples please). Regards!

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Coin toss/die toss/roullete examples are very, very good for theory but only for theory and no argument about that. I absolutelly agree with your example but like you said "why people can't see" that it is not applicable to soccer, basketball, tennis, etc simply because conditions and probabilities for every coin toss/roullete spin are always the same and for a soccer game (or any event involving humans) they are never the same nor they will ever be repeated.

That doesn't make any sense. Yes, you can never know whether you judged the odds on any individual event correctly (unlike with a coin toss). You can however make a number of bets (say 200), and look at the average odds and your yield to determine whether you are making the right calls or not. Imagine you've never seen a coin before and din't know the probabilities A Priori. If you were taking the bets at 1.9 you could look back after about 100 bets and see if you were getting value. That's what people do. Look at Cavelloman, 4 months out of 5 in profit: Finding value or a good guesser? There is a right answer.

And to your last point: you can bet on every "value bet" throughout all your life and still not have a profit (low strike rate) and it is as simple as that. My question is: how you prove that betting on value in a long run brings profit??? (exclude coin/roullete examples please).

Well in that case you should analyse your risk better. I agree there's no point having a system that only yields one bet a year, the variance would mean that there is a significant chance you might never make a profit. Really this is going over old ground. Buy Joe Buchdahl's book and give it a read.

[duffman]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? "that it is not applicable to soccer, basketball, tennis, etc simply because conditions and probabilities for every coin toss/roullete spin are always the same and for a soccer game (or any event involving humans) they are never the same nor they will ever be repeated." Coin Flip: Strength of flip, how many times the coin spins, wind direction, angle of coin hitting the table when falling etc.. Football : Form, Weather, Home Advantage etc. Conditions are never the same with either. Were talking about probabilities on whats the outcome of the game, not what actually happens to lead to the outcome. Thats why true odds do exist (if a team is 1/1 then they'll probably win 1 out of every 2 games played under those circumstances) and paulm03 is spot on. Now, we'll only ever see the first game played under those circumstances, and thats what betting on probabilties is).

[2good4u]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

"that it is not applicable to soccer' date= basketball, tennis, etc simply because conditions and probabilities for every coin toss/roullete spin are always the same and for a soccer game (or any event involving humans) they are never the same nor they will ever be repeated." Coin Flip: Strength of flip, how many times the coin spins, wind direction, angle of coin hitting the table when falling etc.. Football : Form, Weather, Home Advantage etc. Conditions are never the same with either. Were talking about probabilities on whats the outcome of the game, not what actually happens to lead to the outcome. Thats why true odds do exist (if a team is 1/1 then they'll probably win 1 out of every 2 games played under those circumstances) and paulm03 is spot on. Now, we'll only ever see the first game played under those circumstances, and thats what betting on probabilties is).

Oh my God. I am hardly able to comment anything on this one. So, depending on the strength of flip, how many times the coin spins, wind direction, etc... we should, according to you, accept odds of even 1.5 on the coin flip since the above "circumstances" can go sometimes in our favour?!:eek However, it is strange that no one answers why those probabilities (odds) are constantly the same when it comes to coin flip/roullete spin regardless of the amount of money placed on the same number in roullete. Why do bookies react and lower odds if large amount of money is placed to one outcome??? Why would they do it if there is a thing such as "true odds"? And in your example: We will not see only the first game played under those circumstances, we will see the only game ever played under those circumstances. P.S. I really cannot understand that you can put in any correlation coin flip and soccer but then again, it might be just me.

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Why do bookies react and lower odds if large amount of money is placed to one outcome??? Why would they do it if there is a thing such as "true odds"?

Just to let you know I'm not ignoring this thread because I can't answer your question but because you're not making any sense. Please, please go and read Buchdahl's book. It's a good read if you like your betting and it explains all the concepts on here (and more) far more eloquently than I could.

[duffman]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? Oh my God. I am hardly able to comment anything on this one. So, depending on the strength of flip, how many times the coin spins, wind direction, etc... we should, according to you, accept odds of even 1.5 on the coin flip since the above "circumstances" can go sometimes in our favour?!:eek No, I'm just saying you were wrong when you said that conditions were always the same for every coin-flip. "However, it is strange that no one answers why those probabilities (odds) are constantly the same when it comes to coin flip/roullete spin regardless of the amount of money placed on the same number in roullete. Why do bookies react and lower odds if large amount of money is placed to one outcome??? Why would they do it if there is a thing such as "true odds"?" In roulette the true odds will never change for each spin. "And in your example: We will not see only the first game played under those circumstances, we will see the only game ever played under those circumstances." Same thing. "P.S. I really cannot understand that you can put in any correlation coin flip and soccer but then again, it might be just me." The coin flip example is just to explain probability to you.No matter how much you hate maths, thats what betting all boils down to.

[antoin114]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? 2good4u, you can't mix the coin toss with roulette or football. If you toss a coin infinite times, you get equal percentage of heads and tails occurences, however if you toss a coin 1 million times, it's then when the "circumstances" can go sometimes in our favour (or not)! If you spin the roulette infinite times, you get equal percentage of the appearances of each number. If you spin it 1 million times again the circumstances can go sometimes in your favour (or not)! Hope this helps. Now for football betting: If you back infinite football matches, you'll end up broke because each time you back a match you lose a small amount of money to the bookie, regardless of the circumstances. If you back a finite number of matches, again the circumstances can go sometimes in your favour (or not)! It's up to the punter to decide when the circumstances is in his favour, "value" and "true odds" are just tools based on mathematical models to help him decide. In true life, nobody is an expert and everyone is entitled to make a mistake. If a bookie gives odds for an outcome higher than you expected, my advice is back it if the "circumstances" are in your favour and leave it if they aren't! Just an example on this: In the eurovision song contest, I had a large bet with Bwin: "Will Cyprus give Greece 12 points? yes @1.1 and no @6. Can you spot the value here?

[duffman]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Now for football betting: If you back infinite football matches' date= you'll end up broke because each time you back a match you lose a small amount of money to the bookie, regardless of the circumstances.

I think this is dependent on the bookie always getting the odds right. However the fact is they don't and thats where value betting comes in. If you had a bookie with a crap team of odds compilers they would be out of business in no time.

[antoin114]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? Hi duffman, if you didn't notice the word INFINITE in my previous post, may I remind you that this is the ultimate reason why the bookies never go broke! Because they take infinite bets and they can manipulate the punters mass to put their money equally on the outcomes. A value punter will never bet on infinite matches, in fact a lower number of matches most of the times means less probability of losing=better value.

[duffman]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Because they take infinite bets and they can manipulate the punters mass to put their money equally on the outcomes.

Okay..your point is that 'everybody cant win in the long run' and thats fairly obvious. However, (please answer this question) do you agree that a bookies with a team of crap odds compilers would lose money?......... If so, do you not agree that 'value' is about spotting judgement errors (however minor) in odds that are being offered... And any system that works is only a way of finding that?

[traderpaul]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? PaulM03 - why a correct price does not exist The problem with the argument that a correct price exists is that it only exists in theory. The idea of a correct price is a theoretical concept. The concept is used to try to determine value whether for the odds of a soccer match or the price of a loaf of bread. Even this discussion re coin flips and roulette wheels is theoretical. In real life any one particular coin may have a fault or blemish that can alter the expected .50-.50 probability. If you are going to gamble on coin flips you must be aware of that possibility. You must also realize that your opponent may have knowledge about that coin that you don't have. This is why in the real world there is no such thing as a correct price. There is always information about the outcome of the event that either you do not have privilege to or is impossible to know.

[antoin114]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? duffman, I don't really understand the 'crap odds compilers' part of the question. If there is such a bookie, why do we bother here and don't just go rip him off?

[2good4u]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

2good4u, you can't mix the coin toss with roulette or football.

Either you did not read my previous posts or you just could not sense the irony in my words. This is exactly what I was saying from the very beginning. Once again: The value betting theory applied in coin toss and roullete cannot apply to football (really hate to explain again why because anyone who wanted to understand could do so. I even think that Duffman understood it well but just won't admit it ;) ).

No, I'm just saying you were wrong when you said that conditions were always the same for every coin-flip.

But Duffman please focus on what you are saying. If I was wrong when I said the conditions are always the same, how come then the odds are always the same? Please let's be serious: are you really trying to compare number of times that coin flipped with current form of a team? I think not, because if you were then there would be bookies compiling odds for coin flipp? Don't you realize ridicoulusness of that?

In roulette the true odds will never change for each spin.

Aha, so no number of rounds the ball makes before it lands to the number, speed of the wheel, speed/direction with which the ball was released in this case? :eek If you are trying to prove me wrong you could use the same "circumstances" for roullete as you did for the coin flip.

The coin flip example is just to explain probability to you.No matter how much you hate maths, thats what betting all boils down to.

Really??:eek Then let's just hire some guys who are really good in math and let's swim in money. Come on, pleaseeeee!

[duffman]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

This is why in the real world there is no such thing as a correct price.

Do you believe there is such as thing as an 'incorrect price'? (Also, please answer this question :)) If so, can you explain why it is incorrect?

[2good4u]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Do you believe there is such as thing as an 'incorrect price'? (Also, please answer this question :)) If so, can you explain why it is incorrect?

I know you did not ask me but I hope you don't mind: There is my price, his price, your price, bookies' price, etc... No correct or incorrect price. What is so difficult to understand about that?

[duffman]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Please let's be serious: are you really trying to compare number of times that coin flipped with current form of a team?

No, again I was just using it to explain the probability of outcomes, but dont think I'm succeeding :(

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

PaulM03 - why a correct price does not exist The problem with the argument that a correct price exists is that it only exists in theory. The idea of a correct price is a theoretical concept. The concept is used to try to determine value whether for the odds of a soccer match or the price of a loaf of bread. Even this discussion re coin flips and roulette wheels is theoretical. In real life any one particular coin may have a fault or blemish that can alter the expected .50-.50 probability. If you are going to gamble on coin flips you must be aware of that possibility. You must also realize that your opponent may have knowledge about that coin that you don't have. This is why in the real world there is no such thing as a correct price. There is always information about the outcome of the event that either you do not have privilege to or is impossible to know.

I really don't see how much more clearly I can spell this out. Einstein said the definition of stupid is doing things over and over and expecting a different result, I guess that makes me pretty stupid as I've asked this question at least 5 times and there's no reason why anyone should answer now. Anyway, here goes: Why does not knowing (or indeed being unable to calculate) the correct price imply that it does not exist? Please, please answer me because so far every argument against the existence of a correct price has simply being an argument against being able to calculate it. YES!! you can alter a system to change it's behaviour YES!! You can load a coin die or roullette wheel YES!! The weather may affect the outcome of a football game YES!! Someone may have knowledge about an event that you don't All this does is potentially move where the correct price lies, IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS NO CORRECT PRICE!!!!! :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

I know you did not ask me but I hope you don't mind: There is my price' date=' his price, your price, bookies' price, etc... No correct or incorrect price. What is so difficult to understand about that?[/quote'] Grrrrr..... This has to be a windup. Apologies for my rudeness but surely no one can be this daft? You are all guessing at the correct price.:wall :wall A longterm betting profit comes from being able to estimate a correct price better than a bookie on a series of events.

[antoin114]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? 2good4u, you just repeated the first line of my post. I wrote the previous posts to answer to this:

However, it is strange that no one answers why those probabilities (odds) are constantly the same when it comes to coin flip/roullete spin regardless of the amount of money placed on the same number in roullete

and the answer to this:

Why do bookies react and lower odds if large amount of money is placed to one outcome??? Why would they do it if there is a thing such as "true odds"?

is this

Because they take infinite bets and they can manipulate the punters mass to put their money equally on the outcomes.

Now, where do I collect the prize?

[PAULM03]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother?

Now, where do I collect the prize?

:lol :lol You don't mate, he still won't get it. There's loads of experiments you can do to prove a correct price exists. Do what Joe Buchdahl did. Plot £ returned per unit stake wagered against odds. You see it increases and approaches 1 at odds of about 1,25 (i.e. if you bet on all games at about 1.25 you will get £1 for every £1 staked). This indicates that at these prices the bookies are offering fair (i.e. correct odds). At high odds (about 3.5 and above) the £ returned per unit stake is about 0.67 (i.e. 67p returned for each £1 bet) indicating that the bookies are fleecing you. and the correct odds for these games is higher than those being offered.

[slapdash]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? I think this discussion may be more about the philosophy of probability theory than the practicalities of betting. I'll expand on what I mean later, but I think I'll have to go out and buy some body armour first! :lol

[traderpaul]

Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? Duffman, I believe you have misinterpreted me. In the real world I do not believe there is a correct price or an incorrect price. PaulM03, I agree that in theory there is such a thing as a correct price. In practicality there is not. This goes for all markets, not just odds on soccer matches.