ads25 Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) I like the idea of the player ratings thing you have going. Ive actually been thinking of doing a similar sort of concept myself for sometime now but just haven't found time to get it off the ground. My idea was to put players into 4 Grades. Considering each team list has around 40 players or so, then rookie listed players on top of that. my aim was to have the A Grade players from 1-10, B Grade 11-20, C Grade 21-30 and D Grade 31-40 with the rookie listed players come under Grade D automatically. How i rated the players is the main thing i need to work out, i thought using a performance based kind of rating system (similar to the AFL Dreamteam score) and on top of that rate them with my knowledge of the sport. By using a performance based rating kind of thing, this will enable players to shift up & down between the Grades throughout the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vagabund Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Burntua Crisp That's cool. Thanks for sharing your system. Though I know jack about AFL, I have got a suggestion. If you use median score (or leaving highest and lowest total in last 4,5 games and then averaging) instead of average score, results maybe (and it's just a maybe) better in predicting the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Player that sits in the middle on the panel on the Footy show - their team has a 100% record this season :loon For anyone who didn't see the show - this week it was Brad Johnson :nana Go Doggies :cow No wonder Fevola always sits on the left when he is on the Footy Show :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Thanx for sharing Burntua :ok Very much like the way you go about it, good way to analyse games :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) CURRENT ODDS FOR ROUND 8 WIN POINTS LINE ADELAIDE $1.10 -38.5 : 2.10 -33.5 : 1.91 RICHMOND $7.15 +28.5 : 2.10 +33.5 : 1.91 ESSENDON $1.75 -10.5 : 2.10 N/A BRISBANE $2.10 -1.5 : 2.10 N/A GEELONG $1.35 -24.5 : 2.10 -19.5 : 1.91 FREMANTLE $3.25 +14.5 : 2.10 +19.5 : 1.91 HAWTHORN $2.15 N/A +5.5 : 1.91 ST KILDA $1.72 N/A -5.5 : 1.91 KANGAROOS $1.58 -17.5 : 2.10 -12.5 : 1.91 Great value Line -12.5 @ $1.91, should win easy CARLTON $2.40 +7.5 : 2.10 +12.5 : 1.91 Averaging 120+ points against each game SYDNEY $1.70 -11.5 : 2.10 -6.5 : 1.91 Form aver, beat Melb, Rich & Bris, Port flying PORT $2.17 +1.5 : 2.10 +6.5 : 1.91 Best Bet of the Round, +1.5 $2-10 for top team BULLDOGS $1.80 -8.5 : 2.10 N/A Chance to win but under the odds on form COLLINGWOOD $2.03 -2.5 : 2.10 N/A Great value at $2-10 for the -2.5 for a team 5w & 2L WEST COAST $1.21 -32.5 : 2.10 -27.5 : 1.91 Do not thrash sides and Demons fired up to win MELBOURNE $4.50 +22.5 : 2.10 +27.5 : 1.91 Melbourne form good, +27.5 @ $1.91 looks ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) I was listening to SEN. Everyone was rating Sydney as best bet. I honestly have no idea for that game. I will tip Port, but no bets. For me, I've taken a fun bet on Westy most posessions for the round @ 6.00 @Sportsbet. It's between one player chosen from each team. I rate Simon Black and Sam Mitchell as the biggest threats. Honestly its not something to make money on. But I did this bet when Scott West got 41 posessions and thought it was a shoe in. Then Simpson pops up and equals him with 41. Sheesh... they didn't put anyone on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) If Sydney really havn't lost the genuine desire afterall well SEN may be right on, but i've observed a team that has lost that hunger, and that's not necessarily easy to snap out of - so I see this differently to how Sydney could be taken in recent years - ie. you'd expect them spot on for this, in the past. Not this time for me, I like the juicy price on offer about the full strength league leaders. Will Kennelly play?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Thanks for the kind words guys. Some of the suggestions thrown up provide food for thought. To ads25, what you say about using data from a game 7 years ago is fair enough, but this would be one of the few instances you would need to go back so far, although with teams playing at secondary homes now that whole stat about using the last 4 games at a particular venue becomes suspect. Perhaps it could be substituted by using the last 4 times they’ve played one another at any venue. That’s a very good suggestion, ads25. To Jeffers, I do update the rankings every 4 rounds. You can’t chop and change after one terrific performance. Some of my big improvers include; - Tarkyn Lockyer (top 8 at Collingwood) - Clinton Young (top 12 at Hawthorn) - Hamish McIntosh (top 10 at Kangaroos) - Leigh Montagna (top 12 at St.Kilda) - Daniel Cross (top 5 at Bulldogs) To vagabund, that’s another sound and logical suggestion. It would be easy to implement, although the impact on the final total would probably be minimal. However, I’ll trial it over the next few weeks and let you know how it goes. Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Adelaide 106 Richmond 66 Essendon 104 Brisbane 99 Geelong 117 Fremantle 76 Hawthorn 92 St.Kilda 81 Kangaroos 109 Carlton 83 Sydney100 Port Adelaide 83 Western Bulldogs 89 Collingwood 96 West Coast 104 Melbourne 74 Winners look to be easier to find this weekend compared to last, but I think there will be a few upsets. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton, Port and Collingwood have huge chances.The weather will play a factor at the MCG and Skilled Stadium. Of the games I like, the MCG game should be a beauty. The Hawks were good last week and just lacked some polish before going down. The Saints are in good form, but Goddard will be badly missed. Doc Clarke is a late withdrawl which puts pressure on their midfield. The Saints have made a habit of pumping the Hawks over the past few years, but this is a mentally tougher Hawks outfit. The Saints scoring power should get them home, but a rain-affected match will turn the result on it’s head and suit the Hawks. The Swans have got to start showing something now. The midfield has looked wobbly all season and will be sorely tested here. I foresee a similar match here to the one where Sydney overran the Lions. Port couldn’t handle the Crows a month ago, and Sydney play a similar style. Kennelly is back for the Swans, and they are a much better team with him as there springboard. The Demons head out west, and will fancy there chances. They’ve been stiff the past 2 weeks and face an Eagles outfit that are in cruise control mode. The Demons don’t travel well, but they’ve named a good team that can test the Eagles. The Eagles should win but the Demons will be no pushover. Suggested Bets ST.KILDA Win SYDNEY Margin 1-39 WESTCOAST Margin 1-39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Just to go on a bit more about the Doggies game... I think we all realise that the way to beat the Dogs is to limit their oppertunities...they are reasonably consistant in scoring...a strong back 6 doesn't usually bother them... ...The 4 teams that have consistantly bothered this team is Sydney, Crows, WC and St. Kilda... ...no coincidence they allow the fewest I50's. Collingwood currently llow 49 I50's a game...the best comparison is to Geelong, who allow the same amount...but have a better defense (and attack)... ...so two very close statistical teams are Hawthorn and Geelong...2 teams the Dogs have already beaten. ;) - Daniel Cross (top 5 at Bulldogs) ...only came runner up in the B&F last year BC ;) (I have a signed guernsey that he wore in last years' Geelong game :tongue2 ) GUN! Essendon v. Brisbane over 211.5 (2.60 @ Lasseters)...very generous, I'd suggest. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Agree about St Kilda mate. Saints have won the last 4 over Hawthorn by margins of 70, 46, 66 and 28. So to say they have the wood over them is an understatement. They cant keep getting these injuries though otherwise their season may be derailed. Was on the news earlier that Matthew Clarke and Clint Jones are out, Jones probably for about 6 weeks. While he isnt essential, he has been a very handy player for them as a rookie and may be missed. Goddard will miss the season too after last weeks injury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Sydney vs Port Adelaide Port Adelaide have hit a serious patch of good form, they currently sit top of the ladder with 6 wins from 7 and are playing a very exciting brand of football. The Swans on the other hand have slipped down to 11th on the ladder and have only won 1 of their past 4, some worrying sides for Paul Roos' men. Port Adelaide have a fit bill of health coming into this game with no injury concerns, their injury list is the shortest in the league with none of their first 22 players missing. Sydney aren't as fortunate, Leo Barry picked up a knock on his shoulder and will need to be tested, while ruckman Peter Everitt has strained his hamstring and will face a fitness test to see if he will be fit for Round 8. Tadhg Kennelly may return but there would have to be some doubt over his fitness. Head to head these two teams have been close in the past with the last 6 matches being split with 3 wins for either team. Port Adelaide beat Sydney in the corresponding game here at the SCG last season by 26 points and their current form suggests they will go close to repeating that feat. They have already won 2 games in Melbourne and 1 at Subiaco this year. The players to keep an eye on for Port are Kane & Chad Cornes who seem to step up against Sydney, while for Sydney Barry Hall has kicked 10 goals in his past 4 games against the Power and Jude Bolton has form also. Pick Port Adelaide Under 39.5 at $2.70 - (5/10) Centrebet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) W.Bulldogs vs Collingwood The Pies are firing at the moment, they have won their past 3 games and currently sit in 3rd position, The Bulldogs are in 10th position but have been inconsistent for large parts of the season to date. The injury news is good for the Bulldogs with a clean slate from Sundays thriller against Melbourne, however Robert Murphy & Chris Grant are still a few weeks off returning. Collingwood's Brad Dick is the only player with an injury concern but he should be right to play this weekend. James Clement, Ryan Lonie and Paul Licuria are still a week or two off. The Bulldogs have had the better of Collingwood in the past 5 meetings with 3 win and i think thats a trend which should continue on this Sunday. These two teams last met in the 2006 Elimination Final where the Dogs took the Pies to the cleaners to the tune of 41 points in a dominant display. If the Bulldogs get their quick running game going they are capable of beating any club in the compition, especially at Telstra Dome and with the form Brad Johnson is in its hard to look past them, despite Collingwoods form. Brad Johnson is the player to keep an eye out for here as he has kicked 9 goals in his past 4 games against Collingwood while averaging 22 disposals, Scott West averages a whopping 33 disposals in the past 4 against Collingwood and Daniel Cross 27. For Collingwood Paul Licuria averages 29 against the Dogs and Tarkyn Lockyer 22. Pick W.Bulldogs to Win at $1.80 - (5/10) Centrebet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Kangaroos vs Carlton Kangaroos come into this match as $1.58 favourites and while that is fair value, I think there is alot more value in the $1.70 currently on offer at Centrebet for the Kangaroos to lead at Quarter time. While this is a risky kind of bet and not normally one id recommend, the logic behind my suggestion is very convincing. The Kangaroos are currently the #1 ranked 'First Quarter' team in the league winning 7 out of 7 opening quarters, while Carlton have only won 2 of their 7 ranking them #15. The Roos are averaging 29 points for and 16 against for each opening quarter, while Carlton average 22 for and 32 against. The stats suggest it is very likely to happen again and the $1.70 available should be taken with a medium stake purely for the value. Pick Kangaroos to Lead at Qtr Time at $1.70 (4/10) Centrebet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) The last one there looks a very solid bet Ads...we've been shocking in the first quarter every game, I think conceding 30+ on every occasion. :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Essendon v. Brisbane 212 or over (2.60) Should be a shoot-out at the Dome. All of the last 5 meetings have been 212 or more...av. 238...Last year's game was 283 without Lloyd!!! 4 out of 7 Essendon games have been 212 or more...the 3 that didn't were against Adelaide (AAMI), St. Kilda and Collingwood (MCG)...3 very good defensive teams, and 2 out of the dome. Only one of Brisbane's game has been over this number (hence the 'low' total imo)...but it was their only game at the Dome so far and it was 260! The 2 teams are 3rd and 4th best for efficiency @ a score every 1.86 and 1.85 entires... ...Essendon allow the most I50's (57 p/game!), so Brisbane will get plenty of chances... ...the Bombers also had 57 last week...53 in the dome v. Freo, so they should also get plenty of chances. Can see both teams having 30 shots...given even 50/50 kicking that should give enough here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Intersting stat from today’s paper regarding Essendon and how they perform when Matthew Lloyd plays, compared to when is is not in the team. Overwhelming evidence shows the Bombers jump from a 12% winning chance to a 53% winning chance. Similar figures for Johnathan Brown of Brisbane. Matthew lloyd is playing this week for Essendon :loon Since Round 1 - 2003 Essendon with Matthew Lloyd Played 74 Won 39 53% Lost 36 49% Drawn 0 Without Lloyd Played 25 Won 3 12% Lost 21 84% Drawn 1 4% Brisbane Lions With Johnathan Brown Played 67 Won 43 64% Lost 24 36% Drawn 0 Without Brown Played 35 Won 13 37% Lost 21 60% Drawn 1 3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Can see both teams having 30 shots...given even 50/50 kicking that should give enough here. 60 scores and 3-4 OOF... ...terrible kicking hurt really badly. :@ :wall :wall Kangas -11.5 tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) 60 scores and 3-4 OOF... ...terrible kicking hurt really badly. :@ :wall :wall Yeah, 34 points kicked to 26 goals :puke Unlucky that one mate :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Late withdrawals for St Kilda in the shape of Gram and Clarke and they have been replaced by a couple of newcomers. This opens the door a bit for the Hawks to make a dent into St Kilda's recent domination of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Kangaroos vs Carlton Pick Kangaroos to Lead at Qtr Time at $1.70 (4/10) Centrebet Thought that was a great bet Ads :ok 1/4 time Kangas 4 - 5 - 29 Blues 5 - 4 - 34 Carlton win a first quarter for a change :loon Nothing worses than your own team stuffing up your own tip :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Westy most posessions for the round @ 6.00 @Sportsbet. It's between one player chosen from each team. I rate Simon Black and Sam Mitchell as the biggest threats. Mitchell has made this bet tough with a 35 poss game. Edit: And I never realised a football game could be so bad... they should be ashamed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Westy gets 35 in his sleep doesn't he? ;) I'd have to see the game to judge Koi. I loved the Rich v Adel game last year. I gave up my rattle many years ago so I don't need some wanky non tactical high scoring game to appreciate a footy match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) By the way, I took 401.00 two weeks ago about Brent Harvey winning the Brownlow. He's been decisive for them thus far and I believe the media has missed him in the votes a couple of times. Could poll tonight although I personally felt Jones and Thomas were Kangas best. Havey's ben huge all season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) CURRENT ODDS FOR ROUND 8 KANGAROOS $1.58 -17.5 : 2.10 -12.5 : 1.91 Great value Line -12.5 @ $1.91, should win easy CARLTON $2.40 +7.5 : 2.10 +12.5 : 1.91 Averaging 120+ points against each game Kangas get up by 17 points and Carlton concede 147 points, although they must have played well cos they scored 130 themselves. Can't believe the odds about the Kangas, they have played most of the best teams and beaten half of them, then they come up against Carlton and are great odds :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) By the way' date=' I took 401.00 two weeks ago about Brent Harvey winning the Brownlow. He's been decisive for them thus far and I believe the media has missed him in the votes a couple of times. Could poll tonight although I personally felt Jones and Thomas were Kangas best. Havey's ben huge all season.[/quote'] Decisive, he has been sensational Ash, and should have a few votes at this stage. Actually had the please to meet Boomer last year as he was a great inspiration for my 12 yo nephew who died of cancer in September 2006. My nephew loved the Kangaroos and the club invited him down to the inner sanctum of the club and Brent Harvey personally looked after him for the day, and after the game as well...He also came to the funeral when my nephew died, and he seemed really down to earth and was great to our family...The public don't hear the great things some footballers do, especially when you consider Boomer was also calling my nephew each week over a 9 month period to see how he was going...Think it inspired my nephew to last longer than he was supposed to...Top bloke :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted May 20, 2007 Share Posted May 20, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Same old story for Carlton last night. Played well, yet flattered to deceive. Altho I was p!ssed watching it in the boozer with ads, I thought we looked half decent yet again. :ok Shame abou the first quarter, but that's just typical - whos the cnut that missed the sitter for Roos from about 20m :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 20, 2007 Author Share Posted May 20, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Same old story for Carlton last night. Played well, yet flattered to deceive. Altho I was p!ssed watching it in the boozer with ads, I thought we looked half decent yet again. :ok Shame abou the first quarter, but that's just typical - whos the cnut that missed the sitter for Roos from about 20m :@ Unfortunately I watched some of Carlton sober, and they looked even worse then :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 20, 2007 Share Posted May 20, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Westy gets 35 in his sleep doesn't he? ;) I'd have to see the game to judge Koi. I loved the Rich v Adel game last year. I gave up my rattle many years ago so I don't need some wanky non tactical high scoring game to appreciate a footy match. Although I did really not like that game last year... ...but I did end up having an argument with the missus about the game last night. The commentators were over the top with their condemnation of the game "as a specticle"...the crowd was booing...my gf was apparently bored stiff... ...I thought it was a great (well, not great!) game to watch. It wasn't low scoring because of any great negative game plan...two defenses were on top of two (on the night) sub standard attacks. If you didn't know the score I can't believe anyone would have cared. I enjoyed it anyway... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 20, 2007 Author Share Posted May 20, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Think you may be on your own there Taza as far as the Saints/Hawks game :dude Everyone is entitled to their opinion...Been condemned over here as one of the worst games to watch ever...Comparing it to the excitement of the Blues/Kangas game, the Saints/Hawks game was a borefest...There was 42 goals in the game up North, and only 4 in the first half at the dome (perfect footy conditions). And if a woman (your gf) was getting bored by it, then that is not good for the game at all, cos there would have been many more who watched it and had the same thoughts. Billy Brownless on TV had to do a review for the game and turned it off to watch Pirates of the Caribbeans on another channel cos he thought the game was so bad. I only seen a bit of it and it was just chipping around for easy stats, check the stats of the Hawks players. Carlton may be down the bottom of the ladder but prefer to watch them anytime over the Hawks and Saints, cos they have a crack and play decent football, and their opponents always score more than 120+ points, so you know you are going to see a lot of goals :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 20, 2007 Share Posted May 20, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Curious question: How many times this season has the highest scoring team of the round had Carlton as their opponents? Could be easy money! Speaking of which, a hi-low double for me today of West Coast-Melbourne @ $8.50. Probably a dangerous bet as I expect Swans game to be tight, but if West Coast dominate them Melbourne might not see much sherrin. As I expect the other game (Swans v Port) to be tight, I've taken neither team scores 25pts in the 1st qtr @ $2.35. As for the Collingwood game, nobody cares...right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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