AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

[Beejayville]

Round 8 AFL Odds

ADELAIDE	$1.10
RICHMOND	$6.75
ESSENDON	$1.88
BRISBANE	$1.90
GEELONG	$1.35
FREMANTLE	$3.15
HAWTHORN	$2.17
ST KILDA	$1.68
KANGAROOS	$1.57
CARLTON	$2.38
SYDNEY	$1.68
PORT ADELAIDE	$2.17
WESTERN BULLDOGS	$1.85
COLLINGWOOD	$1.93
WEST COAST	$1.20
MELBOURNE	$4.45

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Re: AFL Football Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

Overall Standings
#	Team	P	W	L	D	For	Agt	%	Pts
1	Port Adelaide	7	6	1	0	677	551	122.9	24
2	West Coast	7	6	1	0	608	504	120.6	24
3	Collingwood	7	5	2	0	638	576	110.8	20
4	Geelong	7	4	3	0	869	583	149.1	16
5	Adelaide	7	4	3	0	551	497	110.9	16
6	Brisbane	7	4	3	0	628	576	109	16
7	Kangaroos	7	4	3	0	686	650	105.5	16
8	Hawthorn	7	4	3	0	631	607	104	16
9	St Kilda	7	4	3	0	592	578	102.4	16
10	W.Bulldogs	7	4	3	0	667	695	95.97	16
11	Sydney	7	3	4	0	576	544	105.9	12
12	Essendon	7	3	4	0	718	722	99.45	12
13	Fremantle	7	3	4	0	653	693	94.23	12
14	Carlton	7	2	5	0	664	862	77.03	8
15	Melbourne	7	0	7	0	542	752	72.07	0
16	Richmond	7	0	7	0	576	886	65.01	0

Match Totals
		Quarters				Halves
#	Team	W	L	D	WR%	W	L	D	WR%
1	Port Adelaide	14	12	2	50	8	6	0	57.14
2	West Coast	16	10	2	57.14	10	4	0	71.43
3	Collingwood	14	13	1	50	8	5	1	57.14
4	Geelong	20	7	1	71.43	11	3	0	78.57
5	Adelaide	16	12	0	57.14	8	6	0	57.14
6	Brisbane	17	11	0	60.71	6	8	0	42.86
7	Kangaroos	16	11	1	57.14	8	6	0	57.14
8	Hawthorn	12	16	0	42.86	7	5	2	50
9	St Kilda	16	11	1	57.14	8	6	0	57.14
10	W.Bulldogs	10	16	2	35.71	4	9	1	28.57
11	Sydney	12	15	1	42.86	9	5	0	64.29
12	Essendon	13	15	0	46.43	6	7	1	42.86
13	Fremantle	13	14	1	46.43	6	7	1	42.86
14	Carlton	8	20	0	28.57	4	10	0	28.57
15	Melbourne	11	15	2	39.29	2	12	0	14.29
16	Richmond	8	18	2	28.57	4	10	0	28.57

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Re: AFL Football Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

Quarter Averages
		For				Against
	Team	¼	½	¾	FT	¼	½	¾	FT
1	Port Adelaide	21	26	32	17	22	21	16	19
2	West Coast	26	22	16	23	21	15	19	17
3	Collingwood	18	23	27	24	24	24	19	16
4	Geelong	34	29	34	28	20	23	17	23
5	Adelaide	21	21	21	16	18	14	22	17
6	Brisbane	24	27	19	20	26	19	17	21
7	Kangaroos	29	23	22	24	16	22	23	31
8	Hawthorn	14	24	28	23	21	23	23	20
9	St Kilda	22	17	26	20	19	19	25	19
10	W.Bulldogs	26	27	20	23	30	18	23	28
11	Sydney	22	14	20	25	24	20	21	12
12	Essendon	27	25	24	26	17	28	34	23
13	Fremantle	22	23	28	20	25	18	31	24
14	Carlton	23	25	27	20	32	30	32	30
15	Melbourne	21	15	19	22	27	32	27	20
16	Richmond	23	16	20	24	33	30	31	32

Scoring Statistics
		Avg Score		Avg Margin		Total Score		Round Total
	Team	For	Agt	Win	Lose	High	Low	High	Low
1	Port Adelaide	97	79	25	24	122	63	1	0
2	West Coast	87	72	24	39	101	70	0	0
3	Collingwood	91	82	18	15	119	66	1	0
4	Geelong	124	83	82	13	222	72	2	0
5	Adelaide	79	71	28	19	110	57	0	1
6	Brisbane	90	82	34	27	136	63	1	1
7	Kangaroos	98	93	20	14	118	70	0	0
8	Hawthorn	90	87	21	19	131	44	0	1
9	St Kilda	85	83	38	45	125	43	0	2
10	W.Bulldogs	95	99	19	34	132	62	0	1
11	Sydney	82	78	31	15	109	44	0	0
12	Essendon	103	103	24	19	122	79	0	0
13	Fremantle	93	99	21	26	137	58	1	0
14	Carlton	95	123	10	44	125	39	1	1
15	Melbourne	77	107	0	30	106	57	0	1
16	Richmond	82	127	0	44	100	65	0	0

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Re: AFL Football Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

Margin Breakdown - Basic
		U 15.5		O 15.5		U 39.5		O 39.5
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Port Adelaide	1	0	5	1	4	1	2	0
2	West Coast	3	0	3	1	5	1	1	0
3	Collingwood	1	1	4	1	5	2	0	0
4	Geelong	0	1	4	2	1	3	3	0
5	Adelaide	0	1	4	2	4	3	0	0
6	Brisbane	1	0	3	3	2	3	2	0
7	Kangaroos	0	1	4	2	4	3	0	0
8	Hawthorn	1	0	3	3	4	3	0	0
9	St Kilda	0	0	4	3	2	1	2	2
10	W.Bulldogs	1	1	3	2	4	2	0	1
11	Sydney	0	1	3	3	2	4	1	0
12	Essendon	1	1	2	3	3	4	0	0
13	Fremantle	1	1	2	3	2	3	1	1
14	Carlton	1	1	1	4	2	2	0	3
15	Melbourne	0	2	0	5	0	4	0	3
16	Richmond	0	0	0	7	0	5	0	2

Margin Breakdown - Detailed
		1-19 pts		20-39 pts		40-59 pts		60+ pts
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Port Adelaide	4	0	0	1	2	0	0	0
2	West Coast	3	0	2	1	0	0	1	0
3	Collingwood	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	0
4	Geelong	0	2	1	1	1	0	2	0
5	Adelaide	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	0
6	Brisbane	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0
7	Kangaroos	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
8	Hawthorn	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	0
9	St Kilda	0	0	2	1	2	2	0	0
10	W.Bulldogs	2	1	2	1	0	1	0	0
11	Sydney	1	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
12	Essendon	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
13	Fremantle	2	2	0	1	1	1	0	0
14	Carlton	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	2
15	Melbourne	0	2	0	2	0	3	0	0
16	Richmond	0	2	0	3	0	1	0	1

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[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) According to Ads25's tables the best team in Victoria is the mighty black and whites. Collingwood Football Club :notworthy

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Form Ladder based on Ladder positions after Round 7 Who has beaten who according to position on ladder? Blue = WIN Red = LOSS

Pos	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7
1	Power	13	7	5	3	9	15	16	Playing well but predominatly beat teams lower on ladder
2	Eagles	11	3	13	14	16	10	4	Lost at Skilled on weekend but still team to beat
3	Pies	7	2	16	1	12	5	14	Still winning and only lost to teams 1 and 2
4	Cats	10	14	15	8	7	16	2	First win against a Top 8 club on weekend
5	Crows	12	10	1	11	13	3	6	Class act and capable of winning anywhere against anyone
6	Lions	8	9	11	7	14	13	5	Hasn't beaten any of Top 7 teams yet
7	Roos	3	1	8	6	4	11	12	Appear good things against teams outside the Top 8
8	Hawks	6	15	7	4	10	12	13	Have ability and have beaten 4th placed team
9	Saints	15	6	10	12	1	14	11	Still yet to beat a side in Top 10
10	Dogs	4	5	9	16	8	2	15	Beat Geelong Round 1 but need to step up against Top 8
11	Swans	2	16	6	5	15	7	9	Form ok but struggling against Top 8 teams
12	Bombers	5	13	14	9	3	8	7	Form about where it should be, not up to Top 8 teams
13	Freo	1	12	2	15	5	6	8	Improving and has 2 winds against teams in the Top 8
14	Blues	16	4	12	2	6	9	3	Last 7 games played 5 teams in Top 9, competitive
15	Demons	9	8	4	13	11	1	10	Played mostly the better teams and they are finding form
16	Tigers	14	11	3	10	2	4	1	Also played most of the better teams, but crap to be honest

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Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) AFL Round 8: Match Previews Adelaide vs Richmond Richmonds woes continue this week as they make their second trip to Adelaide in 6 days after copping a 41 point loss to Port Adelaide in Round 7. Adelaide are coming off a win at the GABBA against the inform Brisbane Lions in a match they dominated from start to finish, this was the kind of football we expect from this talented Crows side are yet to hit their strides this year. The Crows are still depleted with a large amount of injuries, but that can take pleasure with the fact their were no fresh injuries this round and stars such as Mark Ricciuto, Graham Johncock, Kris Massie & Matt Bode likely to return in the next few weeks which will give them a huge boost. Richmond have no fresh injury concerns either but they are really going to have to improve remarkably if they are going to get anything out of this match, their averaging losing margin this year is 44 points. Compounding Richmond's problems is that Adelaide have won 8 of the past 9 meetings of the two clubs. Last 5 Head to Head: Adelaide 4, Richmond 1 Geelong vs Fremantle The red hot Cats host the Fremantle Dockers in what looms to potentially be the game of the round. Fremantle returned to the winners list last weekend with a tough fought out win against Hawthorn, while Geelong are coming off the back of a massive 167 point win over Richmond and a 39 point flogging of the undefeated West Coast last round. Geelong picked up a couple of injury concerns in Sundays game with young midfielder Andrew Mackie hurting his knee, while Joel Selwood suffered a knock but should be fit to play against Fremantle. Paul Chapman is still a couple of weeks off returning from his hamstring injury. Fremantle have not picked up any new injuries, but Antoni Grover will front the tribunal this week for wrestling charge. Fremantle have won 3 of the past 5 over Geelong , but Geelong have a good record over Fremantle and their record at Skilled Stadium is exceptional. Last 5 Head to Head: Fremantle 3, Geelong 2 Essendon vs Brisbane Brisbane head into this clash against Essendon with a great head to head record over the Bombers, they have won 9 of the past 11 clashes and would fancy their chances this Saturday afternoon against an out of form Essendon outfit. Prior to last weekends poor performance over Adelaide, the Lions were absolutely flying and currently sit in 6th position, Essendon are in 12th position but have lost 4 of their past 5 matches overall. Essendon picked up a couple of injuries in last weeks loss to the Kangaroos, Andrew Welsh has hamstring soreness but is likely to play next weekend, while superstar James Hird has also strained his hamstring and could miss up to 3 weeks, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Matthew Lloyd may be a chance to return this round if all goes well. Brisbane received no new injuries last round, although Jon Brown will have to nurse a knock he received on his hip. He looks certain to line up though. Last 5 Head to Head: Brisbane 4, Essendon 1 Kangaroos vs Carlton The Kangaroos are currently the form team of the league, they have won 4 on the trot to rise up to 7th position and take on out of form Carlton who have lost 4 on the trot themselves. The Roo's have a very impressive head to head record over Carlton having won 7 of the past 9 clashes. The fact the Kangaroos are playing so well at the moment without their two key forwards, Leigh Harding & Nathan Thompson, who are out for the year is an amazing effort and they have had a pretty blessed run with injuries outside of this. Daniel Wells strained his medial ligament last weekend though however and is likely to miss up to 4-6 games as a result. Carlton will be able to field pretty much a full strength team for this clash with the exception of Cameron Cloke who ahs been ruled out for the season. This match will be played on the Gold Coast and the two sides have never met here for premiership points. Last 5 Head to Head: Kangaroos 4, Carlton 1 Hawthorn vs St Kilda Only 1 position sepperates these two sides thus far, the Hawks sit in 8th position having played some pretty solid football this season and are coming off a 16 point loss against Fremantle at Subiaco. St Kilda sit in 9th position but have played some inconsistent football so far. When the Saints are good they are very good, but when they are bad they are very bad with an averaging losing margin of 45 from their 3 losses. St Kilda's miserable run with injuries was compounded last week with the inform Brendon Goddard injuring his knee and being ruled out for the rest of the season. This is bad loss as his form across the backline this year has been nothing short of terrific and it will seriously test the clubs depth. The Saints have over half their first 22 missing in action and it could be several weeks before they receive any back from injury. Hawthorn have no fresh injuries out of last round and have and may have Danny Jacobs and captain Richie Vandenberg ready for return soon. The Saints have won 4 of their last 5 against Hawthorn and this could be a pretty close and exciting match as both teams are playing some good football lately. Last 5 Head to Head: Hawthorn 1, St Kilda 4 Sydney vs Port Adelaide Port Adelaide have hit a serious patch of good form, they currently sit top of the ladder with 6 wins from 7 and are playing a very exciting brand of football. The Swans on the other hand have slipped down to 11th on the ladder and have only won 1 of their past 4, some worrying sides for Paul Roos' men. Port Adelaide have a fit bill of health coming into this game with no injury concerns, their injury list is the shortest in the league with none of their first 22 players missing. Sydney aren't as fortunate, Leo Barry picked up a knock on his shoulder and will need to be tested, while ruckman Peter Everitt has strained his hamstring and will face a fitness test to see if he will be fit for Round 8. Tadhg Kennelly is still 4 weeks away. Head to head these two teams have been close in the past with the last 6 matches being split with 3 wins for either team. Last 5 Head to Head: Sydney 3, Port Adelaide 2 Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood The Pies are firing at the moment, they have won their past 3 games and currently sit in 3rd position, The Bulldogs are in 10th position but have been inconsistent for large parts of the season to date. The injury news is good for the Bulldogs with a clean slate from Sundays thriller against Melbourne, however Robert Murphy & Chris Grant are still a few weeks off returning. Collingwood's Brad Dick is the only player with an injury concern, but he should be right to play this weekend. James Clement, Ryan Lonie and Paul Licuria are still a week or two off. The Bulldogs have had the better of Collingwood in the past 5 meetings with 3 wins. Last 5 Head to Head: Western Bulldogs 3, Collingwood 2 West Coast vs Melbourne The Eagles suffered their first defeat last weekend at the hands of a rampaging Geelong which resulted in them losing top position, but the Eagles will look to bounce back strongly this week against a Melbourne team who are yet to win, but slowly improving. Melbourne's injury woes have been well documented this season, but in the past fortnight have had several top players return and they are already looking strong for it. Jared Rivers & Brad Miller picked were late withdrawals, but should be fit to play this week, while Matt Whelan & Paul Wheatley may be some chance of returning. West Coast had big man Dean Cox withdraw from last weeks match and he should be right to play this week which will be a huge boost, while they have no other main news on the injury front. West Coasts recent record over Melbourne is fantastic with 5 wins of the past 6 going to the Eagles. Last 5 Head to Head: West Coast 4, Melbourne 1

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Geel/Freo game's been abandoned apparently, ads? :D

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Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

Geel/Freo game's been abandoned apparently' date=' ads? :D[/quote'] Just posted it up :lol

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) The Bulldogs this week represent a danger game for Collingwood...They have won 3 of last 4 against the Pies, including the thumping in the finals last year. Bulldogs have had the better of the Pies in recent times and I would take that into consideration if anyone is thinking of having a crack at the Pies. Hopefully Brad Johnson will get a week for the headbutt :dude On an off related topic...Anyone watch that Footy Classified tonight? Or any Monday night?

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

Anyone watch that Footy Classified tonight? Or any Monday night?

Watch it every week, decent show :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) First game this season for Collingwood at Telstra Dome. I've a decent gut feeling about hot dogs and cold offal pies.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

First game this season for Collingwood at Telstra Dome. I've a decent gut feeling about hot dogs and cold offal pies.

You just can't give the pies any credit can you Ash? And they are clearly Victoria's best side :ok Having said that, the Doggies play Telstra Dome very well and the Pies play it ok. Doggies are a bog chance in this game :cry

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) I wouldn't say that bjv. Just that I think their form has been excellent considering, and winning form isn't necessarily easy to maintain. I genuinely believe dogs get their chance. Don't get me wrong, I rate WBD 4/5 fave and that's all.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) I just spent last few minutes conceeding I don't know what "bog chance" means. I finally got it (close keys). :lol

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

I just spent last few minutes conceeding I don't know what "bog chance" means. I finally got it (close keys). :lol

:rollin:rollin:rollin Agree with you about the Dogs getting their chance :dude

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Yep...Collingwood playing well...playing good D (as Bjv pointed out a couple of weeks back)... ...but they've played some of the worst scoring, most inefficient team sin the comp in that stretch. They allowed 29 shots @ 1.86 (1.97 overall) per entry v. the Kangas in a game they should have lost easily. 27 shots @ 1.89 @ West Coast (1.96 overall) 25 @ 2.00 v. Richmond (1.98) (Equal 3rd lowest scoring team) 24 @ 2.00 v. Port (1.89)...but in the wet... 24 @ 2.04 v. Essendon...a good effort, but Essendon don't score nearly as well at the MCG. 17 @ 2.47 v. Crows...second lowest scoring team and the least efficient. 25 @ 2.08 v. Carlton...decent effort, but 14th and a crap team! Statistically, Collingwood are very similar to Hawthorn...and we saw how the Doggies handled them...and that was outdoors. I agree with the market aswell...Dogs slight favs, but don't think I'll be risking any cash there at all... You know there is not a chance in hell that Richmond win, but can we trust the poor scoring Crows to cover 5 goals? Essendon a far better team in the dome...had statistically their best game last week, but bad kicking cost them. Bombers pumped them last year in Melbourne...No Lloyd in that one either...No Brown, but Bradshaw kicked 6. Pretty strong lean to Essendon here...1.90? Seems fair. (Cough...)...Freo could be a decent show to keep it close @ Geelong?...na. Sorry. Won't even go there! Crazy last meetings too...Geelong won by LOTS last year in Perth as big dogs...Freo won last meeting @ Geelong in 2005. Both soft as custurd...best left well alone, imo!! Hawthorn have to be a decent shout at MCG?...Still odds aren't great off a Sunday Perth game...would have like +3 goals of so...1 just not enough for me. Well...just about had this one pencilled in for a bit of a side bet...Kanga's for the highest score this week (6.50ish)...but I've since seen Essendon for 12's!! Madness...anyway... ...why the hell do we keep getting 1.50+ for teams that play Carlton??!! Seriously...I'm not even going to try to be sarcastic to our Blue-bagging companions ;) ...They are the second worst team in the comp...the let teams score, and score, and score...allow 33 shots per game, @ an amazing 1.66 per entry!! Crazy! One thing the Kanga's had done consistantly well this season, is score. 27 shots in 6 of 7 games... ...But back to that Carlton being rubbish thing...2 small wins, one v. the worst team...Kangas 4-0 last 4 against quality... Won the last 3 meetings by 20, 30 & 19..kicking 105+ in all 3. ...1.60 is a joke. -11.5 looks easily covered. On the surface, 2.20 for Port is tempting, but Sydney are a FAR better team at home. Av'ing 53 to just 40 I50's in 3 games (inc. WC @ Stadium Oz)...allowing just 67 points. Port won all 3 road games so far tho...tough one to call. Shold be a low-scorer, but I guess that's what the books will be expecting... West Coast win, but can't be trusted to cover any decent sized spread...Doggies game a prime example...last year's meeting v. Melbourne even better!! 13.19 to 11.9...actually, on closer inspection, just 50 I50's to 46 that day... ...West Coast are actually going better than last year tho (at this stage anyway)..Melbourne far, far worse (5 less I'50's last week still)... Surely West Coast come out and kick straight in one game!! Surely. Only a matter of time before they win one by 10+ goals... So, overall...crappy betting week by the looks...Kangas for sure...Essendon maybe...:\ Good luck guys. :cheers

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Agree with Taz here, I have absolutely no idea why Kangaroos are any bigger than 1.10 here - can somebody explain this? Seems the biggest pricing error I've seen in years :eek:eek:eek If Carlton actually turned up for four quarters I might begin to understand 1.60 but nah, doesn't make sense :unsure

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Am eyeing Kangas 'cap also, Taza. Yes, Sydney at home and on rebound and all that, but Port must be tried as dogs IMO. Sydney give definate impression the desire to do it all again is not there. Well, I'm prepared to waiver on the Cat's indifferent April form. April is the month of forgiveness IMO (need some of those super groovy emoticons from the Rapture Ready website the boys from GC gate-crashed). Anyway, most sides will lose to Hawks in Launceston and Kangas are headed for top-8 the way they're shaping. This is Freo! Couple of wins at home doesn't inspire me about this mob. It's a totally different scenario to that day in 2005 (where I actually backed Freo). I said it last week, but I still maintain they have the wrong players out. I'm on alredy - -16.5 Portlandbet. Had the bet of the year (that I spotted fairly late) lined up in womans tennis last night (Wozniak 2.50 v Pous Tio) only to find that bookmakers stopped betting one hour prior to advertised start time (a good couple couple hours prior to when it actualy started). Wrong forum, i know, but what's going on with that? :@

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Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Weren't the Kangaroos most peoples tip to finish with the wooden spoon, or there abouts around the pre season? Despite the fact they have won the past 4 on the trot, maybe the bookies think they have been overated and are treating it as such? Carltons crap recent record against the Kanga's is one thing, but their form compared to Carltons at the moment is another and $1.60 does seem a bit long. However Carlton did beat them at this ground back in March in the NAB Cup so maybe that had some bearing? Carlton also won the Cup though and now look at them...:lol If your confident the Roo's will get up (as most people are) then take the $1.60 now while you can because i cant imagine that will last too long

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Yes, I think there's a certain "are they overated" factor about the price, as you say ads, and also some memories of the NAB cup, but those sides have evolved differently since. Let's face it, Stevens is a massive loss, and Thompson isn't such a huge loss afterall. I'm a touch wary myself but not enough to suggest 11.5 points won't be a wise try.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) The only person the Kangaroos have to worry about is Fevola. Chances are he will kick 4-6 anyway, but I'd still be backing the roos. I guess the reason for hte bookies price is that with Sav Rocca and Nathan Thompson out, the Kangaroos are relying on their young players, and young players are inconsistent and their veteran midfielders in harvey and grant to kick goals. So far it's working, but for how long? I'll still be on Kangaroos, espeically as its played in Gold Coast.

[vagabund]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) So, based on discussion here my AFL bet of this week is Kangaroos. In which Australian city/town do they play ? Ashtee - my guess is that the sportsbook closed the book because too many punters had got the "bet of the year". I missed a big arbitrage opportunity with phoenix-san antonio game 5 but oh well just have to be ready for next one.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

In which Australian city/town do they play ?

The Kangaroos are Melbourne based mate, they were called North Melbourne until about 2000 before changing their name to the more generic Kangaroos. They have a contract to play 4 or so games interstate every year which they have been doing in Canberra, until this year where they moved to the Gold Coast to play their 'Home' games. Think they have only played one or two games up at the Gold Coast, so perhaps this is a factor? both teams are basically playing away

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)

The only person the Kangaroos have to worry about is Fevola. Chances are he will kick 4-6 anyway, but I'd still be backing the roos. I guess the reason for hte bookies price is that with Sav Rocca and Nathan Thompson out, the Kangaroos are relying on their young players, and young players are inconsistent and their veteran midfielders in harvey and grant to kick goals. So far it's working, but for how long? I'll still be on Kangaroos, espeically as its played in Gold Coast.

The forward line is now finding it's feet after they'd prepared all pre-season around Thompson. I look at it more that Brown, Edwards and those talls they rotate in have a good thing going on now.

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Player that sits in the middle on the panel on the Footy show - their team has a 100% record this season :loon For anyone who didn't see the show - this week it was Brad Johnson :nana Go Doggies :cow

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) The Crisp Score Predictor Explained.

Through popular demand, I’m going to attempt to explain how I go about predicting the scores for each round. As you have noticed so far, the strike rate for getting winners is O.K, finding 33 out of the 56 winners so far. There are several key components to come up with a final total.

A) Team strength = 40%

B) Last 5 games = 40%

C) Last 4 games at the venue =10%

D) Last 4 games against opponent at that venue =10%

To do this properly, I’ll use a practical example from Round 8, Geelong v Fremantle.

TEAM STRENGTH

Geelong have 5 of their best 22 out, including their best player, Paul Chapman missing. So I estimate that they are at 76% capacity.

Fremantle have 5 of their best 22 out, but have their best 6 playing. So I estimate that they are at 82% capacity.

I rate every player on every list. Depending on how many injuries/suspensions a team has, their playing capacity will be usually between 65-100%.

LAST 5 GAMES

Geelong are averaging 125 points in the last 5 games.

Fremantle are averaging 88 points in the last 5 games.

Geelong are averaging +45 margin in the last 5 games.

Fremantle are averaging – 8 margin in their last 5 games

Add the combined averages together.

Geelong’s new average is 170 (125 + 45)

Fremantle’s new average is 80 (88 – 8)

LAST 4 GAMES AT VENUE AGAINST ANY OPPONENT

Geelong’s average score is 90 points at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games.

Fremantle’s average score is 62 points at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games.

LAST 4 GAMES AGAINST OPPONENT AT VENUE

Geelong’s average score against Fremantle at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games is 96.

Fremantle’s average score against Geelong at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games is 62.

Geelong

= A 40% of 76 + B 40% of 170 + C 10% of 90 + D 10% of 96

= 30.4 + 68.0 + 9.0 + 9.6

= 117.0

= 117

Fremantle

= A 40% of 82 + B 40% of 80 + C 10% of 62 + D 10% of 62

= 32.8 + 32.0 + 6.2 + 6.2

= 76.2

= 76

Score Predictor

Geelong 117 v Fremantle 76

I hope the process I’ve displayed is clear for you to understand. It’s not that complicated and is just a bit off fun. The only time I alter anything is when extreme weather conditions are involved and I’ll reduce the figures to suit. I’m sure there will be a few people that will query and challenge my findings, but this system is far from perfect and open to debate.

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Very good, thanks for explaining that Burntua. Another interesting concept which i reckon is effective. :ok I guess i do have one bit of feedback though and thats regarding the last 4 head to head between teams at a certain venue. For your example above in the Geelong-Freo game your analysing the last 4 at Skilled Stadium, but the 4th last time these two teams met at this venue was in June 2000 and i dont think there would be much use in analysing data that old. Maybe if two teams have met 4 times at a particular venue in say the past 3 seasons then make it equal 10%, otherwise if it goes back to 2000 like the game in question here, make it worth 5% or something? Great work though mate! :dude :dude :dude

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Yeah, that's a decent system you have there by the looks of it Burntua. I like the fairly simple ones taht don't take too much into consideration. :) I presume, when you say you rate every player on every list, that this changes as the season goes, and isn't just your rating from the rosters at the start of hte season? Good work tho :ok