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AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)


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Friday 4 May 2007
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St Kilda v Carlton (10:40 BST)1.67 2.42102% Related markets...Match Result
Saturday 5 May 2007
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Essendon v Hawthorn (05:00 BST)1.70 2.38101% Related markets...Match Result
West Coast v Western Bulldogs (07:40 BST)1.33 3.80102% Related markets...Match Result
Kangaroos v Sydney (10:10 BST)2.66 1.56102% Related markets...Match Result
Sunday 6 May 2007
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Brisbane v Fremantle (04:00 BST)1.92 1.96104% Related markets...Match Result
Melbourne v Port Adelaide (05:00 BST)3.10 1.41104% Related markets...Match Result
Richmond v Geelong (08:00 BST)2.60 1.59102% Related markets...Match Result
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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

Overall Standings

#

Team

P

W

L

D

For

Agt

%

Pts

1

West Coast

5

5

0

0

461

333

138.4

20

2

Port Adelaide

5

4

1

0

486

405

120

16

3

Sydney

5

3

2

0

410

336

122

12

4

Adelaide

5

3

2

0

389

342

113.7

12

5

Essendon

5

3

2

0

527

474

111.2

12

6

Brisbane

5

3

2

0

439

401

109.5

12

7

Collingwood

5

3

2

0

433

419

103.3

12

8

Hawthorn

5

3

2

0

420

415

101.2

12

9

W.Bulldogs

5

3

2

0

493

512

96.29

12

10

Geelong

5

2

3

0

538

448

120.1

8

11

Kangaroos

5

2

3

0

458

460

99.57

8

12

Fremantle

5

2

3

0

482

493

97.77

8

13

St Kilda

5

2

3

0

370

425

87.06

8

14

Carlton

5

2

3

0

487

618

78.8

8

15

Richmond

5

0

5

0

436

549

79.42

0

16

Melbourne

5

0

5

0

365

564

64.72

0

Quarter Averages

For

Against

Team

¼

½

¾

FT

¼

½

¾

FT

1

West Coast

26

25

17

24

20

13

17

16

2

Port Adelaide

19

24

36

19

25

23

16

17

3

Sydney

24

14

20

24

20

22

17

8

4

Adelaide

22

21

20

15

16

13

22

17

5

Essendon

29

26

25

25

15

26

33

21

6

Brisbane

22

29

20

17

25

19

14

23

7

Collingwood

18

24

21

23

24

25

18

18

8

Hawthorn

12

22

27

23

23

20

24

17

9

W.Bulldogs

28

25

21

24

30

19

23

30

10

Geelong

30

24

29

25

21

28

19

21

11

Kangaroos

27

24

17

24

16

24

22

29

12

Fremantle

24

21

30

22

24

15

35

25

13

St Kilda

19

15

23

17

18

20

25

22

14

Carlton

22

27

25

23

36

32

29

27

15

Richmond

27

18

21

21

26

23

26

35

16

Melbourne

20

13

19

21

29

32

31

21

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

Match Totals

Quarters

Halves

#

Team

W

L

D

WR%

W

L

D

WR%

1

West Coast

13

6

1

65

8

2

0

80

2

Port Adelaide

10

9

1

50

6

4

0

60

3

Sydney

10

10

0

50

8

2

0

80

4

Adelaide

11

9

0

55

6

4

0

60

5

Essendon

11

9

0

55

6

3

1

60

6

Brisbane

13

7

0

65

4

6

0

40

7

Collingwood

8

11

1

40

5

4

1

50

8

Hawthorn

8

12

0

40

5

4

1

50

9

W.Bulldogs

8

10

2

40

3

6

1

30

10

Geelong

13

7

0

65

7

3

0

70

11

Kangaroos

12

8

0

60

5

5

0

50

12

Fremantle

10

9

1

50

5

5

0

50

13

St Kilda

9

10

1

45

4

6

0

40

14

Carlton

6

14

0

30

3

7

0

30

15

Richmond

7

11

2

35

3

7

0

30

16

Melbourne

6

13

1

30

0

10

0

0

Scoring Statistics

Avg Score

Avg Margin

Total Score

Round Total

Team

For

Agt

Win

Lose

High

Low

High

Low

1

West Coast

92

67

26

0

101

74

0

0

2

Port Adelaide

97

81

26

24

122

63

1

0

3

Sydney

82

67

31

9

109

44

0

0

4

Adelaide

78

68

26

16

110

57

0

0

5

Essendon

105

95

24

10

122

79

0

0

6

Brisbane

88

80

30

26

136

63

1

0

7

Collingwood

87

84

15

15

115

66

0

0

8

Hawthorn

84

83

16

21

116

44

0

1

9

W.Bulldogs

99

102

23

44

132

66

0

0

10

Geelong

108

90

65

13

162

72

1

0

11

Kangaroos

92

92

20

14

118

70

0

0

12

Fremantle

96

99

23

19

137

58

1

0

13

St Kilda

74

85

41

45

116

43

0

2

14

Carlton

97

124

10

50

125

39

1

1

15

Richmond

87

110

0

23

100

72

0

0

16

Melbourne

73

113

0

40

94

57

0

1

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

Margin Breakdown - Basic

U 15.5

O 15.5

U 39.5

O 39.5

Team

W

L

W

L

W

L

W

L

1

West Coast

2

0

3

0

4

0

1

0

2

Port Adelaide

0

0

4

1

3

1

1

0

3

Sydney

0

1

3

1

2

2

1

0

4

Adelaide

0

1

3

1

3

2

0

0

5

Essendon

1

1

2

1

3

2

0

0

6

Brisbane

1

0

2

2

2

2

1

0

7

Collingwood

1

1

2

1

3

2

0

0

8

Hawthorn

1

0

2

2

3

2

0

0

9

W.Bulldogs

0

0

3

2

3

1

0

1

10

Geelong

0

1

2

2

0

3

2

0

11

Kangaroos

0

1

2

2

2

3

0

0

12

Fremantle

1

1

1

2

1

3

1

0

13

St Kilda

0

0

2

3

1

1

1

2

14

Carlton

1

1

1

2

2

1

0

2

15

Richmond

0

0

0

5

0

5

0

0

16

Melbourne

0

0

0

5

0

2

0

3

Margin Breakdown - Detailed

1-19 pts

20-39 pts

40-59 pts

60+ pts

Team

W

L

W

L

W

L

W

L

1

West Coast

2

0

2

0

0

0

1

0

2

Port Adelaide

3

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

3

Sydney

1

2

1

0

1

0

0

0

4

Adelaide

1

1

2

1

0

0

0

0

5

Essendon

1

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

6

Brisbane

1

0

1

2

1

0

0

0

7

Collingwood

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

8

Hawthorn

1

1

2

1

0

0

0

0

9

W.Bulldogs

1

0

2

1

0

1

0

0

10

Geelong

0

2

0

1

1

0

1

0

11

Kangaroos

1

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

12

Fremantle

1

2

0

1

1

0

0

0

13

St Kilda

0

0

1

1

1

2

0

0

14

Carlton

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

2

15

Richmond

0

2

0

3

0

0

0

0

16

Melbourne

0

0

0

2

0

3

0

0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Of the next 5 or so games, this is probably the most dangerous for West Coast. However it takes a brave man to back against them... not Ashtee though...its all about the odds :) VERY much like Brisbane and Adelaide. Hoping Brisbanes odds move out a bit though, I'd prefer more than what they're currently at.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Already some nice little trends happening after only 5 rounds. West Coast are the dominant team with a 100% win record, but they dont seem to be runaway winners with 4 of their 5 wins being Under 39.5 points. A similar story with Richmond, they are near the bottom with a 0% win record, yet all 5 losses have been Under 39.5 so they arent getting flogged. Worrying signs at St Kilda as they have scored the lowest score for the round on two occasions now and 2 of their 3 losses have been over the margin of 39.5 points. The Western Bulldogs were expected to be a force this year and while 9th is just outside the hunt, the fat they have won only 8 out of 20 quarters is something they will want to work on.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Another stat worth noting is that Port Adelaide have never beaten Melbourne away from home in their history. Melbourne are playing poor this year and their wretched run of injuries is the main reason they are down so far on the table, but a record like this really stands out. So at $3.10 Melbourne good be some good value, or on a handicap they could be worth a shot. Might keep an eye out for the teams thursday night before going ahead with this one, certainly worth a second look though

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Collingwood coming off a 10 day break after 2 games in four days is well over the odds at $2-85 against Adelaide on Saturday night. The Crows are coming off a showdown with Port, a hard slog against Sydney, and a trip to Perth last weekend against Fremantle. That is 3 tough matches, and the last on the very hard Subiaco oval. Adelaide is missing many topliners through injury and the Pies have a very settled team, and they always seem to play well against Adelaide. Having said that, Adelaide have won the last 4 meetings, but Collingwood won the previous six. The Pies have many things in their favour this weekend, where Adelaide are the opposite, and the Pies have no excuses if they fail to deliver. Collingwood has won 3 of the last five meetings at AAMI stadium. Adelaide's strength is their defence, and they are sure to bottle up the Pies to some degrree, but Collingwoods defence has been more than handy this season too. The highest score kicked against them is 90 points. High flying Essendon were only able to manage 79 on Anzac Day. Pies to date: -------------- R1 - Kangas Ave 92 - Scored 70 against Pies R2 - West Coast Ave 92 - Scored 87 R3 - Richmond Ave 87 - Scored 90 R4 - Port Ave 97 - Scored 84 R5 - Essendon Ave 107 - Scored 79 The Pies have a bevy of fast players and they will provide the Crows with plenty to think about, and at almost $3-00, they scream out for a bet, or at least some type of margin bet.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) I like the reasoning behind your tip there Beejay. Pies are paying $2.10 for a 11.5 point head start or $1.91 for a 16.5 point head start. Certainly some value there, although their record against Adelaide in recent times is a bit of a concern... Might keep an eye out for the anounced teams

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

Another stat worth noting is that Port Adelaide have never beaten Melbourne away from home in their history. Melbourne are playing poor this year and their wretched run of injuries is the main reason they are down so far on the table, but a record like this really stands out. So at $3.10 Melbourne good be some good value, or on a handicap they could be worth a shot. Might keep an eye out for the teams thursday night before going ahead with this one, certainly worth a second look though
With Neitz named looks like this could be a goer.
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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

Of the next 5 or so games' date=' this is probably the most dangerous for West Coast. However it takes a brave man to back against them... not Ashtee though...its all about the odds :)[/quote']Absolutely Koi! :) I'll back against West coast every game of the season if the price is right. Easy to see how I got my reputation as a bad punter, isn't it? :lol ;) . As for this week, I havn't seen an obvious bet thus far - bookies opened every game the same as me. However I am likely to try Essendon should there be the bit of rain as forecast. Also contemplating Collingwood H'cap.
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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

Kangaroos26536677
Sydney17335889
This prediction really stood out to me/ The HT/FT bet of Kangaroos/Sydney which is paying $7.00 at Centrebet. Kangaroos have won 5 out of 5 first quarters while Sydney have lost 4 out of 5 second quarters. Sydney are a team who comes home strong which makes this bet worth a shot in my opinion, purely for value
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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

You guys have me convinced. Only worry I'd have is kangaroos getting up and winning.
PLEASE...:lol :lol :lol :lol... Believe me m8 it just aint going to happen + you can always put a separate bet just on Kangas win @ HT.... although that wat happened w me last week... Kanga HT and Carlton FT (I think I cant really remember) 2 seperate bets tho pulled up w a small profit... may b a better option...
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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Well, I've been watching the footy for 7 weeks now, and been to 4 games...so I'm gonna give my first prediction(s). :lol The Kangaroos look like they are improving significantly, but Sydney should surely still have too much - this looks like Sydney U39.5 all the way to me. Carlton have been scoring for fun lately (and conceding but we'll gloss over that :lol) - with the St Kilda backline decimated, I'm going for Carlton here. I like the way the Doggies have been playing in the last couple of weeks, and it seems West Coast never really run over games, so I think this will be a close one - especially with Footscray's record over there. Going to keep a record through the season, bets are 1-10pts. Round 6 Sydney Under 39.5 @ 2.25 Centrebet (8pts) Carlton @ 2.27 Centrebet (4pts) Bulldogs +24.5 @ 1.87 Centrebet (4pts)

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Don't waste your money, foreign boy ;) (Doggies get smashed :( ) Carlton/Saints...over, over, OVER just about anything!! (About 210 I'm expecting) 4 of Carlton's 5 games this year have been 213 or more... None of St. Kilda's have been ovewr 183, but this is where I'm hopiong the value will come from... ...away games @ Brisbane and Port...they just don't score well on the road...even so, Port in the pouring rain and Brisbane without Riewoldt... 9.14 is 23 scoring shots v. Essendon without Gehrig...28 and 31 shots v. Doggies and Melbourne...all good! Carlton at the Dome have allowed 218 ppg over their last 10, and 235, 246 & 260 in their last 3..the last 2 this season. Saints D is actually very good in the smaller Dome, but without a host of key defenders there's no reason Fev and the boys won't kick a decent (winning even?) score. Last year's only meeting was at the MCG, when Carlton kicked a whole 4 goals!...but the previous 5 meetings were all at the Dome and were 237, 214, 241, 284 and 226. Look slike plenty of points to me...honestly not sure who's going to win the game tho!!

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Yeah...kinda like the Hawks myself, Ash...even without Lloyd out...but would have liked a few more pints to play with I think. Hawks have only beaten Melbourne, Kangas and a good situation win over Geelong... Hawks won by a point in Rd. 5 last season with no Lloyd, but a couple of things stand out to me...Ess had 57 I50's to 46 (unlikely this time around), but they did have 44 hit out to 9!!...Spida had a huge game (30 HO's, 20 possessions and a goal), Jacobs had 15 marks and Williams kicked 3.4 Still not convinced enough by the Hawks to get me onboard... Now, the Doggies...I can't see them scoring any more than 80 in this one. St. Kilda and Adelaide both bottled them up, the Eagles have allowed 20, 19 and 15 shots at home so far, and have the best D in the League by a LONG way (a shot every 2.37 entries...next best is Sydney with 2.14!)...and the Dogs are in Essendon's boat with their midfield...haven't beaten a team for I50's yet, and rely on a crappy defense to kick a winning score...they sure as hell can't stop anyone! Only Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond have worse D's, only Rich, Melb and Ess have allowed more I50's, and they've allowed at least 28 shots in all 5 games so far! Doggies scored 75 and 39 over there last year...West Coast win, but as usual it will come down to how straight they kick as to how big the final margin will be...but you'd think (I think! :D) at a reasonably low spread they should be able to get the cover. (although kicking 12.15 and beating Collingwood by just 12 is a bit annoying!) SYdney/Kangas is an intersting one...how good is the Swans' midfield?!!...allow just 39 I50's a game! They've allowed just 67 ppg over their last 10, but at the same time didn't score so well @ Richmond and onnly really got going against a terrible Melbourne and in the last quarter v. a tiring Brisbane. Kanga's have to be a sneaky chance, with Kennelly missing and Goodes clearly not right... ...will wait for the total, could get a decent under with the Kanga's scoring big last week. **cough***whisper*** ...I think I might actually be on the Pies this week...shhh.... ...can't argue one little bit with what Bjv says...just...can't!! If we take out the 110 point BELTING (soory, had to say it :D), Collingwood haven't lost their previous 4 over there by more than 4 points! Allowing a few shots each game, but allowing just 44% accuracy (forcing teams wide?...a good comedy routine on the mark?! :D) ...it has to be a good thing against the Crows who struggle to kick a fat woman in the arse. They shoot for goal every 2.19 entries (worst in the league) and have been somewhat surprisingly bad in the middle, just +1 I50's...as are the 'Pies. Can the Crows score enough to cover a decent size spread? I don't think the can...but either way, this is another 'under' game in the making I suspect. Stats and history both on Brisbane's side. Freo second worst conversion rate behind the Crows (2.16)...bit of a surprise to me...and 2 wins only against Melbourne and last week's nail biter at home. Lions already had 2 decent wins at home, and have NEVER lost to Freo up there...and in fact won as decent size 'dogs last trip to Perth (2005). Brown kicked 7 last year, but Johnson didn't play for Freo. Don't like taking this Brisbane team as favs... Yep, Port have never beaten Melbourne @ Melbourne...but this year they will, and pretty likely by more than 17 points too! Melbourne a staggering -12 I50's per game...Port (surpring?) are +10! Power 4th best D (behind Syd, WC and Crows!) and Melbourne give up 113 ppg this year. MCG no real concern to Port (except v. Melboune apparently! :D) won 5 of their last 6 there, inc. the Pies this year.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)

Sainters/'baggers over 206.5 @ 2.60. Yell extra loud for me Jeffers ;)
Where's that?:eek I'm on wherever it is - looked earlier in the week (albeit in a tab shop :rollin) and the total was about 220 @ 1.91 :unsure
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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Thought I would try an experiment to see who the better performing teams are. This is the ladder at the moment and I have got the results of the first 5 rounds to see who has beaten who according to the round 5 ladder. Blue is win and Red is loss.

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

1

Eagles

3

7

12

14

15

Wins against top and bottom teams

2

Power

12

11

4

7

13

Only beaten teams 7 and below

3

Swans

1

15

6

4

16

Lost to 1st and fourth teams

4

Crows

5

9

2

3

12

Good side against anyone, beat 2 and 3

5

Bombers

4

12

14

13

7

Hard to work out

6

Lions

8

13

3

11

14

Beaten nobody in top 7

7

Magpies

11

1

15

2

5

Only lost to top 2 sides, beat 5th side

8

Hawks

6

16

11

10

9

Yet to beat anyone in top 9

9

Bulldogs

10

4

13

15

8

Yet to beat anyone in top 7

10

Cats

9

14

16

8

11

Yet to beat any teams below 14th on the ladder

11

Kangaroos

7

2

8

6

10

Lost to 3 teams in the 8, and beat 6th team

12

Freo

2

5

1

16

4

Losses to 3 of top 5 teams, beat 4th team

13

Saints

16

6

9

5

2

Yet to beat anyone in top 8

14

Blues

15

10

5

1

6

Played above themselves in round 3

15

Tigers

14

3

7

9

1

Played 4 of top 9 teams and been competitive

16

Demons

13

8

10

12

3

Battled injuries and bout where they should be

What sticks out?

Port Power has not beaten anyone of real substance yet, only the Pies Pies form is not too bad Hawks, Bulldogs and Cats beaten no decent team yet Kangaroos form is better than it looks Freo’s form is fairly good although they are 12th Saints have beaten no one Tigers form is not too bad and they are a chance against Geelong

Any thoughts?

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) I have a nice little double to start off the weekend... Carlton V St Kilda Havn't been impressed at all with St Kilda this year, they have been downright lazy at times, and injuries are also hurting them. Compare that to the Blues who have been playing some great football and scoring freely most weeks, having no toruble posting scores 100+. The Blues are primed to go tonight and they are great value at the head to head odds of $2-23 at Centrebet. Win CARLTON @2.23 Adelaide V Collingwood Already wrote in earlier post about the great value on the Pies this week, and to get $2-10 with a points start is too much to resist. +12.5 COLLINGWOOD @ 2.10 And the double is also good value for 2 teams that have great chances to win. Win CARLTON @2.23 +12.5 COLLINGWOOD @ 2.10 Double @ 4.68

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Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Score Predictor St.Kilda 101 Carlton 91 Essendon 96 Hawthorn 85 West Coast 105 Western Bulldogs 81 Kangaroos 74 Sydney 88 Adelaide 79 Collingwood 75

The Friday night game has tightened up considerably. The Saints are struggling with numbers through the midfield and in defence. No excuse for Fevola not to kick 7-10 goals regardless of delivery. Is it just me or is he a bigger crybaby that Richardson ever was? Needs to be on his best behaviour to give the Blues a chance. Even though the Saints have been injury-ravaged for a few seasons now, they’ve always given the Blues a hiding. I’ll stick with the Saints because they still have the tougher midfielders and have multiple forward options that can score heavily even if midfield supply is reduced. Essendon v Hawthorn is a great match-up with contrasting styles. The Bombers crave a free flowing shoot out and feeding their key forwards. The Hawks are a tough in an under hard working, hard running team. They specialize in clearing from stoppages and rely on leading forwards to finish off the good work. It worked reasonably well last week, but conversion was the problem. Hawthorn’s midfield is clearly superior, but Essendon’s scoring power will cause headaches. Flip a coin. It’s that close. The Eagles are operating at about 80% presently, and that’s plenty to dispose of the Dogs. I’ve never seen a team in 25 years allergic to body contact like the Dogs are. They have very few players willing to get a hard ball, whilst the Eagles have love the conested ball. The Dogs will hang in, but will eventually be blown away by the premiership favourite. The Saturday night games will be arm wrestles. The Kangaroos have played solid football every round this season highlighted by last week’s effort in Geelong. The Swans will miss the run off Kennelly who has been there best player so far. Goodes and Everitt need to lift because they’ve been poor so far, and come up against the league’s in form ruckman. Sydney should win in a low scoring scrap. Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse said this week he’d rather be involved in low scoring contests rather than a Carlton-Brisbane style shoot out. Hardly surprising coming from a coach who won 2 titles at West Coast based on defence. He’ll get his low scoring wish here, but the Crows look to have all bases covered. The Pies will look winners at some stage, but the Crows have too much brilliance and won’t let this slip. Goal scoring could be a problem for the Pies because Rutten will have Rocca for dinner.

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Win WESTCOAST Margin 1-39 ADELAIDE Margin 1-39

Good punting one and all.

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