AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Great to see you have seen the light and jumped on the Collingwood bandwagon Jeffers :ok

Carlton till I die mate. As Ads says, one win and you guys are going nuts :loon Both teams were pretty poor from what I saw. Made a cracking game, but Collingwood aint gonna finish top 10 playing like that. :ok

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Carlton till I die mate. As Ads says' date=' one win and you guys are going nuts :loon Both teams were pretty poor from what I saw. Made a cracking game, but Collingwood aint gonna finish top 10 playing like that. :ok[/quote'] You were obviously drinking at the game Jeffers :rollin When Collingwood play Carlton we will see who the better team is :dude

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

You were obviously drinking at the game Jeffers :rollin When Collingwood play Carlton we will see who the better team is :dude

Surely the only winner can be mediocrity? :rollin:rollin:rollin

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I'll take Fev over that sh!thouse Rocca anyday :lol

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

I'll take Fev over that sh!thouse Rocca anyday :lol

hahaha Rocca. You have been following AFL for what, about a month? Already you have realised that, he has been like this for over a decade mate. Promises so much, yet delivers so little. Tarrant was the same Give me Fev anyday, and an inform Lance Whitnall. An iresistable combination :dude

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

an inform Lance Whitnall.

A what? :unsure ...Williams out for the Hawks. Cross 'very likely' ...still hoping for that 1.60+ somewhere... Who the hell are half the players Melbourne have brought in??!! :lol

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

A what? :unsure ...Williams out for the Hawks. Cross 'very likely' ...still hoping for that 1.60+ somewhere... Who the hell are half the players Melbourne have brought in??!! :lol

You better be quick TazaD, The Bulldogs price is in freefall. Williams and Jacobs confirmed withdrawls and at least 2 others in doubt for the Hawks. The Bulldogs will be $1.40 - $1.45 by game time and will have conditions to suit their smaller team. I heard about the Mark Williams injury yesterday, and jumped on the Dogs at $1.70 as well as the line and start. $1.60 might be hard to find now.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) 1.58 at sportsbet is best I can get. Hawks have had close games, so I'd be worried about taking too big a margin. Might put some on doggies to win by 1-39.

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Port Adelaide vs St Kilda The Power are coming off a good win against Collingwood last week and their good early season form of 3 wins and 1 loss has seen them rise to 4th position. St Kilda's shaky start to the season continued with a 5 goal loss to the Bombers last week in a match they were favourite to win and its going to take something special for them to beat Port Adelaide on Friday night. Recent head to head suggests this will be very uneven as Port have won 9 of their past 10 against St Kilda. St Kilda's miseries are compounded by the fact their wretched run with injuries continues with Sam Fisher ruled out with a hamstring injury, their depleted back line doesn't look it will be able to hold up against a powerful Port Adelaide attack. Players to look out for include Lenny Hayes for St Kilda who has averaged 27 possessions and kicked 6 goals in St Kildas last 5 matches against Port. Fraser Gehrig and Nick Riewoltd have kicked 11 and 10 goals respectively. Kane & Chad Cornes are the ones to look out for in Port Adelaide, they love playing against the Saints as their stats show, Kane has kicked 5 goals and averaged 24 possessions while his brother Chad has averaged 24 possessions. Pick Port Adelaide -18.5 Points at $2.10 - (4/10)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I got +14.5 for the Saints, and like it very much ;) BC, not sure wet conditions do suit the Doggies that well at all...don't worry about their height (lack of!), but their run and precision (usually, hopefully!) skills also tend to suffer. Oh, thanks ASh for not knocking the arse out of the Crows @ 2.10 :D ...talking of value, Adelaide are 1.30 @ +24.5!!!... ...money for jam, money for old rope, money for old boots...money for nothin' and your chicks for free?... Needless to say I like it. Brisbane coming in. Still 2.00 @ 365.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Score Predictor Port Adelaide 83 St.Kilda 77 Richmond 77 West Coast 106 Carlton 84 Brisbane 101 Sydney 103 Melbourne 77 Hawthorn 73 Western Bulldogs 87 Geelong 92 Kangaroos 71 Fremantle 84 Adelaide 81

The weather will definitely have an impact this weekend in Adelaide and Melbourne, and strange results wont be a major surprise. Port and St.Kilda always have terrific contests that are usually very close. This should be no exception, but the Saints do look suspect in defence and Tredrea is just about ready to fire up with Koschitzke expected to go back. Port to win this narrowly. Poor conditions should even up the Tigers-Eagles contest. It will be interesting to see how Wallace approaches this game. Will he adopt the game plan that derailed the Crows last year or play a 9 man defence or go head to head. The supply to Lynch, Wirrpanda and Hansen should be plentiful and an easy victory is on the cards. Brad Fisher is missing for Carlton. He is a key component in attack as injuries take hold at the Blues. If they lose a key defender in the next few weeks, they will become uncompetitive. The Lions were ordinary last week, and need to lift across the board to win this. Carlton’s team is significantly weakened since they last met in the NAB Cup Final, and this fact swings me to Brisbane. Sydney cannot put a better team on the ground whilst Melbourne are severely depleted. However, they do play well against the Swans and they will keep them honest for a while, but the Swans should pound them. Any other result, then the Swans are shaky. The Hawks-Bulldogs game looked the best game of the round until it was robbed of Williams, Jacobs and Young. Losing key players from all areas of the ground unbalances the team severely. The Dogs are close to full strength and if they can’t win this, they should pay the travel agents a visit on Monday and book their September holidays. Potentially nasty conditions has often undone Geelong at home in recent years. A small hiccup last week for the Cats, but they look to strong for the Roos. Bartel, Ling and Ablett will be impossible to stop and will eventually get on top of the Roos. The Dockers must win against Adelaide. Another loss at home would spell the end of their top 4 aspirations. Even though they won their first game last week, they have played reasonably well in all of their games so far. The return of Johnson in defence is a huge benefit and Pavlich and Tarrant are teaming well. The Crows can’t be faulted in recent weeks, but injuries are starting to take their toll.

Suggested Bets

BRISBANE Win WESTERN BULLDOGS Win/Line/Start FREMANTLE Margin 1-39

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Shame about the crows players in doubt. http://www.sportal.com.au/football.asp?i=news&id=97827 They do seem a club with no end of depth though:hope. I've held off a couple times lately and cost myself best price. Cuts both ways I suppose :\. I think I produced stats here last year that suggested Bulldogs would struggle given wet weather - bounces, uncontested possession, etc. It seemed to be a disaster for their game style and confidence in the West Coast final. Does Brogan play?

[Sweetbacks]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) No Brogan. Announced on SEN about half hour ago.

[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Going 1 bet 2nite: 4units Port win 1-39 @ 2.15 I favour them greatly and have little fear of them beating this spread... ... Gl with all bets 2nite... and stay :dude

[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Any1 watching the game that can tell me WTF St Kilda are doing... 1 point 4 the 1/4.... OMG killing my 1-39 theyve done nothing all game.... ARRRRGGGGG...

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I haven't seen a team so, well, uninterested! I just seemed like half of the Saints didn't want to be there. Gehrig clearly didn't...Milne, although he sleeps with the lights on most nights, looked even more petrified of contact than ever... ...forward line non-existant, but either way, they just din't get any ball. Fiora and X. Clarke are hardly mud-runners, and all Dal Santo wanted to do was kick it sideways. Terrible performance indeed. Port were FAR superior. However, I guess the one 'positive' (for me!) to come out of it is that it shows rain and crappy conditions don't necessarily hurt covering a spread! Eagles -24.5 still looks juicy to me... ...I'm not sure that Richmond will play "that" style of game again...it's just not Wallace's style. He loves to play Mr. Innovator, just don't think his ego will allow him to fall back on old tricks... ...either way, teams are FAR more prepared for it these days. It will only take WC a few minutes to man up and end it all. Crows out to 2.15...Goodwin out?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) PS> Agree with BC with Geelong and weather conditions... Ablett unlikely too...was on crutches after the game last week, will hurt them around the packs.

[Loz]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I was a bit hesitant about taking the Swans at -35.5 against Melbourne mostly because of the bad weather in Sydney. But it has cleared up and looks to be good conditions here for the Swans to dominate those punks from Melbourne. The handicap just wont be enough is my feeling particularly when the Swans are looking to make up for the woeful match last week

[blackcrow]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) WC to win by 40+ Big difference in form and class. Says it all. Tigers come into this game with a few injuries to key players while the Eagles are virtually with their full team. West Coast are on top of the table because of the excellent form they have shown despite their off field problems, especially with last weeks demolition of Carlton. The tigers haven't shown much and will struggle with the matchups with the WC players, who are simply too good for them

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Going to the Dome tonight for Carlton/Brisbane - what are the expert's thoughts on this game? Seems to me like a tossup :unsure

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I'm not sure where the experts hang out, jeffers, but I feel the books have this game about right with Bris a marginal favourite. A lot will depend on who's up the better for it. You'd like to see Fisher in that Carlton forward line. He's a bit unsung but knows when to chip in for a couple of timely goals.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Never back Carlton, jeffers...but you'll learn that soon enough ;) Pissed I didn't grab the 2.00 for Brisbane available earlier, but might be for the best. Got (mostly) 1.80 for over 185.5. Brisbane been in some low scoring games, but all against good/slow defensive teams...Carlton will drag just about every team they play over this amount! (except WC in the rain it seems :( ) Also taken the over in Sydney. Rain looks like staying away. 159-178 (3.00) and 179+ @ 3.20...gives 2.10+ for the over... Same with Sydney, played WC and Adelaide, Richmond away, and had 31 shots v. Brisbane...defense a bit over-rated as none of those teams score all that well...pretty sure Melbourne can get at least 60. Melbourne have allowed 28, 31, 35 and 32 shots...so no reason Sydney can't kick a monster score to drag this one over. 2 of the last 3 meetings have been over 179, just looks a very low, gettable total at a very good price.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Had visions of losing another game by a point or two late in Sydney!...in the end, consider myself a little unlucky not to get the win with White's miss on HT and Bruce/Jamar both spraying balls out on the full from about 35 out! Oh well, no harm done...made up for by the Carlton over coming in about 4 minutes into the second half! lol Doggies/Hawthorn over 185.5 is a big price @ BF...just wondering about conditions...although radar looks clear, so not sure why the big 'under' move. All of the last 8 meetings gone over, well, 197 actually...2 Bulldog games have snuck under this number (both 182) v. 2 very good defensive teams in Adelaide and St. Kilda...Hawthorn off a very low scoring game where the ground always plays a part, and Geelong kicked horribly... Only really played one game v. free flowing/bad D and the total was 210 v. a toothless Melbourne. Can't see why this one doesn't have plenty of scoring aswell...and @ 2.10, I'm definately having a dip!

[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I'll be taking with even stakes on all: WB 1-39 @ 2.20 Geelong 1-39 @ 2.2 Adelaide 1-39 @2.7 HT Roos + 10.5 @ 1.92 HT Adelaide + 3.5 @ 1.92 Would normally provide an explination... but i dont have 1 (Picked em out of a hat) Gl all with bets... and stay :dude :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Grey clouds but high. Honestly rain here, geelong or Melbourne today is 1,000,000 to 1 although yhey just showers forecast for later in day. Fev cost them the match:spank.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) One thing really getting on my nerve; Did Dwayne Russell poll a Brownlow vote in his carreer? I've got a feeling he didn't? Example (and we're getting one every bloody game he calls); Darren Glass, established full back and AA but he's "never recieved a Brownlow vote". Why the hell should have he in a side containing, Judd, Cousins, Kerr, Embley etc??? - They only give out three of the things, not a dozen!!! IMO yet another brain-dead example umpire bashing!!!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) One thing really getting on my nerve; Did Dwayne Russell poll a Brownlow vote in his carreer? I've got a feeling he didn't? Example (and we're getting one every bloody game he calls); Darren Glass, established full back and AA but he's "never recieved a Brownlow vote". Why the hell should have he in a side containing, Judd, Cousins, Kerr, Embley etc??? - They only give out three of the things, not a dozen!!! IMO yet another brain-dead example umpire bashing!!!

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Echo Echo Echo Echo Echo

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) It's always been that way Ash. Wangeneen (sp) was the only one I can think of. Half backs and the like dont poll well, hence I wont be putting money on Mcleod this year.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) It's not really my point tho Koi. Russell is thinking about it much too simplistically. Players can, and do, be in their teams top dozen performers week in week out but not ever realistacally be entitled to a vote. Ie. He's making brain dead comments. Russell will probably find he's never given Glass or most of his other examples a vote either. As far as the defender issue goes, Glass etc play in defence because they usually arn't the quality that Judd, Kerr etc are. Wanganeen, McLeod, Chris Grant (Defece '96?), Glendenning are/were tho and that's why they can win Brownlow's.