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AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)


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Right...stats are in, and some early thoughts for the week ahead... Essendon...still very shaky imo. Can they rely on a potent forward line, kicking big scores by converting well from limited opporunities all season?? The Carlton game suggests not!...although the obvious difference here is that Collingwood don't have anyone capable of kicking a quick 8 when it's needed. :D Hird will be limited, Fletcher looks certain to miss...of course Presti also likely to miss hurts tham down back. But, as I said, Essendon, in 4 games, are yet to gain more I50's than their opp, and av. 5.25 less per game...there's only so long they can convert at 66%... ...and MCG records make interesting reading...Bombers won just ONE of last 10 (1 draw), the win being by just 13 points (against Collingwood) late last year. Collingwood lost just 1 of their last 9 by more than 13 points there...but surpringly have been biggish favs in most of those games! :\ Still don't rate Essendon enough to warrant taking them as short favs, don't rate Collingwood at all ;) ;) St. Kilda?! This is slurp your lips stuff, surely!! Liked the 2.30, 2.60 is crazy! I can only assume missing half their backline is the reason, but who can take advantage for Port? Ebert is their main target...Tredrea still a long way from being near his best...maybe White? (played well last week)... ...I don't believe Brogan will play. He'll be a big In if he does, freeing Lade to play forward, but don't think it will happen. (Voss likely back for St. K) so all is not lsot down back anyway!) Just love the way it sets up from last week...Saints predicably (well, predictably enough!) lose big without their FF, and against a big, potent forward line... ...Port win away against a (sorry, bjv, still have to say it!) very over-rated Collingwood... Port got a bit lucky in week 1, kicking very well against an under-strength Freo, wins over Kangas and Pies...and a reasonable loss to Adealide...and as the Dogs, and Essendon have shown this season, if there's one team that plays like Adelaide, so far it's the Saints. St. Klda allowing just 43 I50's a game! (second best behind Sydney), and av 9.5 more than their opp per game. Realistically, I guess I'll be taking the h'cap (+10ish I guess?) because I think it will be close either way...3 of the last 4 have been by 6 points or less, inc. a 4 point and 6 point win to Port @ Adelaide... ...also, interestingly enough, Port won by 4 points @ home last season, had 1 less shot at goal, and Gehrig didn't play! (Although Hamill kicked 4 I guess). Anyway, I think I've made my point! :D West Coast? Yep. Easy. Won their last 5 meetings by an av of 45, inc. 88 last year @ MCG. Richmond allow 9 more I50's a game, Eagles allowed just 23, 20, 15 and 19 shots so far @ 64 ppg... ...Tiges allowed 32, 30, 40 shots!!...and 23 to Sydney. Eagles inaccuracy a worry for covering big spreads, but if Richmond don't score 60 it shouldn't matter. A spread of low 30's will be interesting... Actually leaning towards Brisbane...hopefully will push out to 2.00 or more. Carlton won just one of their last 10 @ the Dome..yeah, all as 'dogs, but have allowed huge points...something that hasn't changed this season...they allow a shot at goal every 1.64 entries!!! (Richmond next worst @ 1.75) Obviously Fev the key up the other end...Strangely enough you'd say that both Merrett, Brennan and Roe all match up quite well on him. Lappin likely finally back, Charman better for the run...Brown on who> Waite? O'Hailpin??...Whitnall!?? He won't kick 1.5 again. Strangely enough Melbourne have a good recent record v. Sydney...won 3 of last 6, the last 2 @ SCG, and haven't lost by more than 32... Will Melbourne score?? They allow nearly 14 more I50's per game!!, get just 43 (the lowest)...Sydney allow just 36.5 p/game!!!!!! (+12ish),and haven't allowed more than 19 shots...Melbourne haven't allowed LESS than 31!!! Still, easy win for the Swannies...tough to pick a margin tho...you'd suggest 10 extra shots should convert to a 30+ point win...which is right where I expect the spread to be. Pass on Doggies game!!...realistically good odds for the Dogs (anything over 1.60 I like!)...but got a funny feeling. Rain forecast, MCG, no Cross (although Boyd did very weel last week helping West out)... Dogs -6 I50's, and have allowd 29+ shots in each game, and a shot every 1.85 entries (4th worse)... ...BUT, Hawks off 2 wins agasint 2 crap teams, and another "explainable" win last week...Dogs handle lower teams generally...bit like the Saint/Ess game last week...value with the likely winners, but not 100% sold. Geelong obviously win...won last 3 at home v. Kangas by 10, 69 and 85...but their last 6 at home (from Rd. 3 last year) were 3 losses, a draw and wins by 10 and 27... ....but again, I think this one sets up well...Kangas of 3 small losses and an upset win..all against bottom 6 teams. Geelong off the old "explainable" loss...belted 2 bad sides before that...how do we read Geelong tho? Again, bad weather could be a factor. Crows win. Freo suck ;) Oh, btw, Crows still available at 4.00 for top finish @ Canbet/IAS.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Wednesday 25 April 2007
HomeDrawAwaybookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">sp.gifBPP
Essendon v Collingwood (05:00 BST)1.46 3.10101%
Friday 27 April 2007
HomeDrawAwaybookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">sp.gifBPP
Port Adelaide v St Kilda (10:40 BST)1.55 2.64103%
Saturday 28 April 2007
HomeDrawAwaybookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">sp.gifBPP
Richmond v West Coast (05:00 BST)5.20 1.22102%
Carlton v Brisbane (10:00 BST)1.97 1.96102%
Sydney v Melbourne (10:00 BST)1.16 5.50105%
Sunday 29 April 2007
HomeDrawAwaybookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">sp.gifBPP
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs (04:00 BST)2.32 1.72102%
Geelong v Kangaroos (05:00 BST)1.33 3.75102%
Fremantle v Adelaide (07:00 BST)1.92 2.02102%
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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Overall Standings

#

Team

P

W

L

D

For

Agt

%

Pts

1

West Coast

4

4

0

0

362

257

140.9

16

2

Essendon

4

3

1

0

448

379

118.2

12

3

Adelaide

4

3

1

0

332

284

116.9

12

4

Port Adelaide

4

3

1

0

390

362

107.7

12

5

Hawthorn

4

3

1

0

327

305

107.2

12

6

Geelong

4

2

2

0

436

330

132.1

8

7

Brisbane

4

2

2

0

303

277

109.4

8

8

Sydney

4

2

2

0

301

276

109.1

8

9

Collingwood

4

2

2

0

338

340

99.41

8

10

St Kilda

4

2

2

0

327

329

99.39

8

11

W.Bulldogs

4

2

2

0

383

419

91.41

8

12

Carlton

4

2

2

0

363

482

75.31

8

13

Fremantle

4

1

3

0

424

436

97.25

4

14

Kangaroos

4

1

3

0

340

358

94.97

4

15

Richmond

4

0

4

0

360

450

80

0

16

Melbourne

4

0

4

0

305

455

67.03

0

Match Totals

Quarters

Halves

#

Team

W

L

D

WR%

W

L

D

WR%

1

West Coast

11

5

0

68.75

6

2

0

75

2

Essendon

10

6

0

62.5

6

2

0

75

3

Adelaide

9

7

0

56.25

5

3

0

62.5

4

Port Adelaide

8

7

1

50

4

4

0

50

5

Hawthorn

7

9

0

43.75

5

3

0

62.5

6

Geelong

11

5

0

68.75

6

2

0

75

7

Brisbane

10

6

0

62.5

3

5

0

37.5

8

Sydney

7

9

0

43.75

6

2

0

75

9

Collingwood

5

10

1

31.25

4

4

0

50

10

St Kilda

7

8

1

43.75

4

4

0

50

11

W.Bulldogs

5

9

2

31.25

2

6

0

25

12

Carlton

5

11

0

31.25

2

6

0

25

13

Fremantle

8

7

1

50

4

4

0

50

14

Kangaroos

10

6

0

62.5

4

4

0

50

15

Richmond

6

9

1

37.5

3

5

0

37.5

16

Melbourne

5

10

1

31.25

0

8

0

0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Quarter Averages

For

Against

Team

¼

½

¾

FT

¼

½

¾

FT

1

West Coast

28

21

18

24

16

15

18

15

2

Essendon

31

28

28

26

17

25

34

20

3

Adelaide

23

24

21

15

17

14

23

18

4

Port Adelaide

17

28

34

19

29

25

20

17

5

Hawthorn

9

21

29

23

21

15

21

19

6

Geelong

31

26

30

23

16

26

19

22

7

Brisbane

18

26

17

15

22

9

12

26

8

Sydney

21

11

21

22

23

23

18

6

9

Collingwood

20

23

20

23

25

26

18

17

10

St Kilda

22

15

29

16

16

23

20

23

11

W.Bulldogs

27

22

18

29

32

17

24

32

12

Carlton

19

20

26

26

36

29

28

28

13

Fremantle

26

24

33

23

26

17

40

27

14

Kangaroos

24

21

16

25

13

26

21

29

15

Richmond

25

21

23

21

29

18

29

37

16

Melbourne

23

11

19

23

26

33

36

19

Scoring Statistics

Avg Score

Avg Margin

Total Score

Round Total

Team

For

Agt

Win

Lose

High

Low

High

Low

1

West Coast

91

64

26

0

101

74

0

0

2

Essendon

112

95

24

3

122

99

0

0

3

Adelaide

83

71

26

31

110

61

0

0

4

Port Adelaide

98

91

17

24

122

63

1

0

5

Hawthorn

82

76

16

25

116

44

0

1

6

Geelong

109

83

65

12

162

72

1

0

7

Brisbane

76

69

39

26

102

63

0

0

8

Sydney

75

69

22

9

96

44

0

0

9

Collingwood

85

85

14

15

115

66

0

0

10

St Kilda

82

82

41

42

116

50

0

1

11

W.Bulldogs

96

105

26

44

132

66

0

0

12

Carlton

91

121

10

70

125

39

1

1

13

Fremantle

106

109

45

19

137

70

1

0

14

Kangaroos

85

90

24

14

104

70

0

0

15

Richmond

90

113

0

23

100

72

0

0

16

Melbourne

76

114

0

38

94

57

0

1

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Margin Breakdown - Basic

U 15.5

O 15.5

U 39.5

O 39.5

Team

W

L

W

L

W

L

W

L

1

West Coast

2

0

2

0

3

0

1

0

2

Essendon

1

1

2

0

3

1

0

0

3

Adelaide

0

0

3

1

3

1

0

0

4

Port Adelaide

0

0

3

1

3

1

0

0

5

Hawthorn

1

0

2

1

3

1

0

0

6

Geelong

0

1

2

1

0

2

2

0

7

Brisbane

0

0

2

2

1

2

1

0

8

Sydney

0

1

2

1

2

2

0

0

9

Collingwood

1

1

1

1

2

2

0

0

10

St Kilda

0

0

2

2

1

1

1

1

11

W.Bulldogs

0

0

2

2

2

1

0

1

12

Carlton

1

0

1

2

2

0

0

2

13

Fremantle

0

1

1

2

0

3

1

0

14

Kangaroos

0

1

1

2

1

3

0

0

15

Richmond

0

0

0

4

0

4

0

0

16

Melbourne

0

0

0

4

0

2

0

2

Margin Breakdown - Detailed

1-19 pts

20-39 pts

40-59 pts

60+ pts

Team

W

L

W

L

W

L

W

L

1

West Coast

2

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

2

Essendon

1

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

3

Adelaide

1

0

2

1

0

0

0

0

4

Port Adelaide

3

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

5

Hawthorn

1

0

2

1

0

0

0

0

6

Geelong

0

1

0

1

1

0

1

0

7

Brisbane

0

0

1

2

1

0

0

0

8

Sydney

1

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

9

Collingwood

1

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

10

St Kilda

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

0

11

W.Bulldogs

0

0

2

1

0

1

0

0

12

Carlton

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

13

Fremantle

0

2

0

1

1

0

0

0

14

Kangaroos

0

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

15

Richmond

0

2

0

2

0

0

0

0

16

Melbourne

0

0

0

2

0

2

0

0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Pearce due back this week, isn't he Taza? Also Motlop I think - leaves them pretty strong. I'm thinking, Saints only two wins - Melbourne and a slack WBD. Not playing it at Telstra Dome either. I'm comfortable with what the Books make this, that's just me though. Your second last sentence Taza ;). I just think a total pro club who outclasses the opponent despite away. Desperate for another win won't save Freo IMO. Really think the bookies arn't seeing things at all right on this one. Crows maybe get bode and shirley back? Freo have Johnson (match fitness) avaiable and maybe Cook which helps but are still missing Farmer, Peake and Schammer for some much needed bite on the deck.

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Re: Kangaroos Their talls up forward are dropping four or five pack marks each week that they're getting hands to. Thompson would of held those marks but if these guys (Edwards, Hale, McIntosh, Petrie, Brown) start to click in that regard then they could easily get some more wins. My smokey for the wooden spoon is Brisbane - remember, always talk price with me thanks ;). Saw 40.00 at Betfair. Melbourne are overs also - better than 5.00 gettable. Carlton at 14.00 in a long season is a bit high also. I expect Ricmond to find some form at some point, so 2.25 is nonsense IMO. As I suggested, no value in Kanga price either. And of course, we're all on Collingwood already.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Very amusing Ash :rollin Actually I am off to watch the mighty black and whites take on the bombers tomorrow at the MCG....I'm hoping they have a crack, but doubt they will have recovered in time from the bump and grind on the heavy ground against Port Power on the weekend...Got a few players going in that will be sore, and can't see them stopping Lucas, Lloyd and co at this point in time, just hope they play in the true Anzac spirit and give it all they have...Can see Essendon completely overunning them in the second half. Reckon you might be spot on with your Kangaroos assessment too, and be interesting to see how it pans out.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

I do hate to be annoying' date=' but any predictions for tomorrow's game Ads?[/quote'] There ya go mate, posted some predictions above. Will try and post some previews if time allows me. Will be a great game tommorow i hope
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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

There ya go mate' date=' posted some predictions above. Will try and post some previews if time allows me. Will be a great game tommorow i hope[/quote'] Cheers mate :ok I actually wondered the other day if you ever predicted a draw? Got me thinking for a few mins but I've already figured out what to do if that's the case. Also on the game more specifically, I am a sucker for a medal bet, either PAWP style like Ash hates, or the more speculative value type which I'm sure he'd much more approve of. I'd imagine a bomber would win and Lucas (from what I can tell from my limited AFL viewing) is in good form. Worth a go at 11s perhaps. Open to all medal tips ;)
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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Interesting stat for Kangaroos' date=' having won 62.5% of quarters. Shows they are getting overrun in a quarter...usually the last. Cant explain why... it shouldn't be fitness. Maybe mentally.[/quote']

First Qtr

Second Qtr

Third Qtr

Fourth Qtr

P

W

L

D

W

L

D

W

L

D

W

L

D

West Coast

4

3

1

0

3

1

0

2

2

0

3

1

0

Essendon

4

3

1

0

2

2

0

2

2

0

3

1

0

Adelaide

4

3

1

0

3

1

0

1

3

0

2

2

0

Port Adelaide

4

0

4

0

2

1

1

4

0

0

2

2

0

Hawthorn

4

0

4

0

2

2

0

2

2

0

3

1

0

Geelong

4

4

0

0

2

2

0

3

1

0

2

2

0

Brisbane

4

2

2

0

4

0

0

3

1

0

1

3

0

Sydney

4

2

2

0

0

4

0

2

2

0

3

1

0

Collingwood

4

2

2

0

0

3

1

1

3

0

2

2

0

St Kilda

4

2

2

0

1

2

1

3

1

0

1

3

0

W.Bulldogs

4

1

3

0

2

1

1

1

3

0

1

2

1

Carlton

4

1

3

0

1

3

0

2

2

0

1

3

0

Fremantle

4

2

2

0

3

1

0

2

2

0

1

2

1

Kangaroos

4

4

0

0

2

2

0

2

2

0

2

2

0

Richmond

4

1

3

0

3

1

0

2

2

0

0

3

1

Melbourne

4

2

2

0

0

4

0

0

4

0

3

0

1

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Just took Scott Lucas for today's medal @ 11 with TAB. If there's a better price out there it's with a bookie I don't have an account with, but there's probably better around. Not sure what to make of Lloyd either, he's currently 21. Surely a big goal haul would put him right into contention for this one?

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Pearce due back this week, isn't he Taza? Also Motlop I think - leaves them pretty strong. No big, strong, tall forward that will really worry the Saints lack of bodies down back tho Ash, is what I was mainly getting at. Hopefully we'll get some spread numbers up soon, to see where the games really stand.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) A valid argument Taza ;). Last year Port ALWAYS struggled whenever Brogan was out, and certainly can't expect the same old Tredrea yet. Brogan was absent in Tassie last year for Saints 4-pt (Motlop) win and Tredrea returned (but no impact). Lots of flooding that game, particuarly by Port.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Score Predictor

Essendon 97 Collingwood 78

Plenty of late changes expected which makes it tough to tip with confidence. If Fletcher misses for Essendon, the pendulum almost swings to Collingwood. If Thomas or Prestigiacomo misses, Collingwood are in strife. I’m selecting Essendon on the strength that their forward setup looks difficult for Collingwood to match up on. Collingwood have a slight edge in the midfield but the Bombers have shown they don’t need to dominate in the middle to give the forwards enough opportunities to kick a winning score. My chances to win the Anzac Medal are Mark McVeigh, Adam McPhee and Heath Shaw.

Suggested Bet

TOTAL GAME SCORE : 175-194

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Yeah bad luck BC. It looked a sure thing in that last qtr - a bonus for myself as I took 2nd qtr to be highest scoring, for a couple reasons including the 4-day break. The players just weren't keen to do much more the last few minutes which saved my ass by 5-pts. I thought the Collingwood body language pre game was better, so I took 2.50 Coll to win 1st qtr, and of course that's the only qtr they didn't win :\. Usually doesn't pay to get that clever on body language plays, I've found, and just go for the outright instead :\. Well as far as THE MEDAL goes, it'd be nice if Worsfold could see fit to nurse Judd and Kerr through the season by leaving them out occasionally (of course I won't hope they get injured ;) :lol). I'm on Shaw at 500/1 By the way Bet365 have just put Adelaide up at 2.10, while it lasts.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I’m just back from the M.C.G having witnessed my first Anzac Day clash in person. It had a tremendous atmosphere and I highly recommend anybody to go to one. I don’t support either team although you can’t help but get sucked in after the match starts, and I found myself on the Pies. The Bombers got off to a flyer, but after the Pies composed themselves, they never looked like losing. Their midfield controlled the match and Essendon paid no respect to the Shaws(more later). The skills in the first half were poor. The turnovers in the first half must have set a new world record. Luckily there was an improvement in the second half, but the Bombers were gradually falling off the pace. Tremendous effort by the Pies, they fully deserved their win and showed they are clearly superior to the Bombers. It is impossible to find an excuse for them. Essendon have issues above the shoulders. They think they are a top 8 team, but when the blowtorch is applied several players go missing. It was their flashier players keeping them in it, whilst the usual suspects go missing. Whilst there is no love lost with Pies, you just have to admire and respect them. Through adversity, they keep finding a way to get the job done. Perhaps a few Victorian teams can take a leaf out of their book. Now to the important stuff. My game score bet missed by a point. I gave up on it at three quarter time, but to hover around the margin for the final 8 minutes with no goal being scored was unlucky. You don’t have to be dead to be stiff.

My chances to win the Anzac Medal are Mark McVeigh' date=' Adam McPhee and Heath Shaw. :cheers

Suggested Bet

TOTAL GAME SCORE : 175-194 :@

On the bright side, thank you to Kevin Sheedy for letting Heath Shaw do as he wished for the first three quarters. The Anzac Day medal was done and dusted by then. He dominated the game and helped subdue Lucas in the final term to wrap it up.I had a unit on each of my selections so tonight I’m heading out my friends. I'll have one for each of you. Catch you on Friday.
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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Just got back from the MCG, my first anzac day game, great atmosphere with 90,000+ :clap Made it even better that I backed Collingwood under 39.5 :tongue2
Good to see you slowly but surely switching allegiance to the mighty magpies Jeffers :ok Carlton supporters just don't go to Collingwood games, it's that simple. So it is obvious you are the English Straunie and will only be a matter of time before your navy blue becomes black and white, good stuff!!! While we are on the magpies...not a bad win by one of the bottom 4 sides :dude If Pies had of kicked straighter it would have been over much earlier...They missed many gettable goals.
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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Oh yes' date=' McLeod needs a spell also![/quote'] Don't panic mate, his numbers will drop when Johncock comes back into the side ;) Bloody stupid Melbourne weather!! :@ Can't plan anything more than 2 hours ahead! West Coast a measley 25.5 point favs over the worst team in history!...having said that, after seeing the first quarter last week, that might only helps things along! :spank Sydney -33.5 @ 365 too...creeping upwards most other places.
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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

Great to see you have seen the light and jumped on the Collingwood bandwagon Jeffers :ok
Collingwood bandwagon? Bandwagons actually move and are going somewhere! You ask me Collingwood are much more akin to a beached whale than a moving bandwagon ;)
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Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) 1 win and the Pie fans are crowing again. Almost as bad as Geelong supports if you ask me :lol West Coast will win this years flag, the other 15 teams in the league are better off playing for draft picks now while they still can, Collingwoods win over Essendon yesterday could come back to bite them come draft day

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