Datapunter Posted April 22, 2007 Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Something to be aware of is that you are doing this with small stakes, you get a different, much more difficult picture, with larger stakes. For example you traded on Hannover v Mgladbach with a bet at 6.2 on the draw. From Betfair's odds view ( when you click on Draw ) you can see that only a few hunderd in volume was matched on the draw at a price above 5.7isch. So for larger stakes you'd have to wait for the market to settle and then some. Which in this case would have gotten you a price around 5.7isch. Big difference in the long run. One to remember when you start thinking about increasing the stakes ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Something to be aware of is that you are doing this with small stakes, you get a different, much more difficult picture, with larger stakes. For example you traded on Hannover v Mgladbach with a bet at 6.2 on the draw. From Betfair's odds view ( when you click on Draw ) you can see that only a few hunderd in volume was matched on the draw at a price above 5.7isch. So for larger stakes you'd have to wait for the market to settle and then some. Which in this case would have gotten you a price around 5.7isch. Big difference in the long run. One to remember when you start thinking about increasing the stakes ;) I totally agree with you, If I was trading in larger stakes the selection of games I trade on would have to be reduced significatly as you would not want to trade in a game wtih poor liquidity... The Norway game I am trading at 1700hrs is a prime example! I was lucky with the hannover game, I have managed to achieve the best price possible for backing the draw, the odds are now only 5.8. Thanks for pointing that out though, it is a very valid point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Trade 43 Aalesund v Fredrikstad KO 1700hrs Odds: Aalesund........2.28 Fredrikstad.....3.25 Draw.............3.85 Lay draw @ 3.85 No cover bet. Aalesund.....+21.06 Fredrikstad..+21.06 Draw..........-60.00 I thought there would be goals in this, however unfortunately I have not been able to trade out due to initially the away team scoring and then after the equaliser the goals were too close. The scoring has gone 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 all between 14 and 27 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw I thought there would be goals in this, however unfortunately I have not been able to trade out due to initially the away team scoring and then after the equaliser the goals were too close. The scoring has gone 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 all between 14 and 27 minutes. This would be a good game to have been watching, 3-2 on 40 minutes... I have placed a bet to trade out, however it hasn't been matched yet... mainly due to the poor liquidity on this match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Deja Vu..... 2 games still in play and I need a goal in both. Auxerre v Lyon = 0-0 Aalesund v Fredrikstad = 3-3 (equalising goal on 46 minutes). The greed thing seems to be haunting me again, I could have taken a profit on the Aalesund game... if it finishes 3-3 I only have myself to blame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Trade 43 Auxerre v Lyon KO 1700hrs Odds: Auxerre...3.65 Lyon.......2.54 Draw...... 3.85 Lay draw @ 3.85 No cover bet. (unders are expected, however h2h these teams have not had a 0-0 game in their 10 games.) Auxerre.....+29.27 Lyon.........+29.27 Draw.........-60.00 What a complete disaster today has been... I have traded out by backing the draw at 1.65 :( Auxerre.....-30.73 Lyon.........-30.73 Draw.........-21.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw and just to cheer me up some more, backed the draw at 1.66: Aalesund.....-28.94 Fredrikstad..-28.94 Draw..........-26.89. I am glad I am doing this with small stakes, I clearly lack discipline after my good run. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Not much to say about this update: Trade 39 - Killie v Celtic (1-2):............. + 8.19 units Trade 40 - Lazio v Fiorentina (0-1)........ - 17.12 units Trade 41 - Empoli v Torino (0-0)........... - 22.51 units Trade 42 - Hannover v Mgladbach (1-)... + 9.03 units Trade 43 - Aalesund v Fredrikstad (3-3). - 26.89 units Trade 44 - Auxerre v Lyon (0-0)............- 21.00 units -70.30 units OUCH! :puke Total Trades: 44 Winning Trades: 34 Losing Trades: 10 P/L: +64.39 Bank: 164.39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw I shall continue, however with more discipline. If there is a goal and I can trade out for break even or a profit I will... I will also place cover bets for games with a higher chance of 0-0. Liability back to 50. Trade 45 St Etienne v Bordeaux KO. 2000hrs Odds: St Etienne...2.52 Bordeaux....3.55 Draw..........3.10 Lay draw @ 3.10 Lay total goals +1 15 @ 1.14 (cost 2.10) St Etienne..+23.81 Bordeaux....+23.81 Draw..........-50.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Trade 46 Villarreal v Barcelona KO. 2000hrs Odds: Villarreal......5.90 Barcelona....1.74 Draw..........3.90 No Cover bet. Lay draw @ 3.90. Villarreal.....+17.24 Barcelona...+17.24 Draw.........-50.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 22, 2007 Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Aldric, an observation if i may, Since the start of this thread you have only had 3 out of 20 days without trading, the 8th, the 18th&19th, and the latter only because work "got in the way" . ( not that i'm checking up on you or anything :$ ) You are now up to trade 46 in 20 days, thats more than 2 per day on average. Today you've had some losses, Trade 40 - Lazio v Fiorentina (0-1)........ - 17.12 units Trade 41 - Empoli v Torino (0-0)........... - 22.51 units Trade 44 - Auxerre v Lyon (0-0)............- 21.00 units but these are to be expected, just part of the game we're playing. You've also had, Trade 43 - Aalesund v Fredrikstad (3-3). - 26.89 units and this one you could have avoided. Reading between the lines, and speaking from experience as i've often under-estimated this myself, time for a trading vacation. Seriously you need to take 3 to 4 days off with no trading and then come back to it with a fresh look. You've been working non-stop man, take a break. Have a kitkat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Aldric, an observation if i may, Since the start of this thread you have only had 3 out of 20 days without trading, the 8th, the 18th&19th, and the latter only because work "got in the way" . ( not that i'm checking up on you or anything :$ ) You are now up to trade 46 in 20 days, thats more than 2 per day on average. Today you've had some losses, Trade 40 - Lazio v Fiorentina (0-1)........ - 17.12 units Trade 41 - Empoli v Torino (0-0)........... - 22.51 units Trade 44 - Auxerre v Lyon (0-0)............- 21.00 units but these are to be expected, just part of the game we're playing. You've also had, Trade 43 - Aalesund v Fredrikstad (3-3). - 26.89 units and this one you could have avoided. Reading between the lines, and speaking from experience as i've often under-estimated this myself, time for a trading vacation. Seriously you need to take 3 to 4 days off with no trading and then come back to it with a fresh look. You've been working non-stop man, take a break. Have a kitkat. You are right, the problem was that everything was going so well I wanted it to continue....... I certainly have lost my discipline with this for the moment and as I stated above I am going to remedy that. Thanks again, for keeping an eye on me! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Trades 45 and 46 are both 0-0 at HT...... As usualy I will let then run until 80 minutes if they stay 0-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw 60' Villareal score: 1-0 55' Bordeax score: 0-1 Both underdogs score... I have no option to let the villareal game run for the moment. I am attempting to trade out of the bordeax game at break even or a small profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Trade 45 - update Back draw @ 4.20 St Etienne..+6.81 Bordeaux....+6.81 Draw..........+4.40 minus 2.10 for laying total goals +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Trade 46 Villarreal v Barcelona KO. 2000hrs Odds: Villarreal......5.90 Barcelona....1.74 Draw..........3.90 No Cover bet. Lay draw @ 3.90. Villarreal.....+17.24 Barcelona...+17.24 Draw.........-50.00 Villarreal score: 2-0... I was in the processes of trading out and it went suspended, I feared the worst but it was a pleasant surprise. I am letting this run with 2 mins + injury left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Trade 45 - update Back draw @ 4.20 St Etienne..+6.81 Bordeaux....+6.81 Draw..........+4.40 minus 2.10 for laying total goals +1 Bordeaux score in injury time to make it 0-2. Trade 45 - St Etienne v Bordeaux (0-2) = +4.71 units. Trade 46 - Villarreal v Barcelona (2-0) = +17.24 units. Total Trades: 46 Winning Trades: 36 Losing Trades: 10 P/L: +86.34 Bank: 186.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnfieldAssassin Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Hope you're enjoying your kitkat! :loon Or are you :beer instead??? :rollin :rollin :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Hope you're enjoying your kitkat! :loon Or are you :beer instead??? :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin After the post from Datapunter I realised I was betting too much and decided to take a break from this system. I will be back next season with less selections but hopefully profitable ones :ok Cheers, Aldric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted June 4, 2007 Share Posted June 4, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw A useful little rule of thumb you could employwould be only Trade on games which you can watch on TV? This obviously lessenes the chances of losing your discipline but also might make your inplay trades better judged. Nice thread though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fenlandtiger Posted June 6, 2007 Share Posted June 6, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Looks like you ended up with a pretty good ROI based on figures reported 22.04.07! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonkster Posted June 7, 2007 Share Posted June 7, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Am I reading this wrong when you talk about laying 1+ goals in some of the matches? Surely if you are laying 1+ goals would it not be easier to back the 0-0 score as its the same bet and would imagine you would get much better odds for doing this. Please ignore me if I am being stupid with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted June 7, 2007 Author Share Posted June 7, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw Looks like you ended up with a pretty good ROI based on figures reported 22.04.07! Cheers, it was working out well.. just need discipline and time in front of the computer :ok Am I reading this wrong when you talk about laying 1+ goals in some of the matches? Surely if you are laying 1+ goals would it not be easier to back the 0-0 score as its the same bet and would imagine you would get much better odds for doing this. Please ignore me if I am being stupid with this. The odds work out almost the same however the +1 goals market has less commission so its usually better to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonkster Posted June 7, 2007 Share Posted June 7, 2007 Re: Football - Trading the draw The odds work out almost the same however the +1 goals market has less commission so its usually better to do that. Fair enough mate - Just glad I wasnt being a total idiot there lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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