happygooner Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings INTER TURKU v kups 0-1 :@ FRI ---- STEAUA v u.craiova 6-1-0 , odds = 2.0 ST PATS v bray 5-1-0 , odds = 1.66 Gl, I'll be laying both the aways amongst a few others if I can get good enough odds:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punterbg Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings What's the average win odds for this type of favourites. Is it worth backing such selections on doubles when the odds are lower than 1.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Afriad i don't have the figures to hand punterbg , but i have in the past doubled and even trebled up short odds selections . Again i would say try to gain as much knowledge about the teams involved rather than going in blind , although i must admit it's hard to find team news on anything bar the Main Euro leagues but theres a good few on here that have a good knowledge of Brazil , Scandinavia etc k keep an eye on these threads and don't be afraid to ask on this any other froums if they have specialist guys that post . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgoonerman Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Thanks again jtw1 for helping me with my acc this week (marseille, Inter and St Etienne) Great work this season :) how about some internationals next weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punterbg Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Afriad i don't have the figures to hand punterbg , but i have in the past doubled and even trebled up short odds selections . Again i would say try to gain as much knowledge about the teams involved rather than going in blind , although i must admit it's hard to find team news on anything bar the Main Euro leagues but theres a good few on here that have a good knowledge of Brazil , Scandinavia etc k keep an eye on these threads and don't be afraid to ask on this any other froums if they have specialist guys that post . I think the value for backing away teams with 7-0-0 (or anything similar) might be better. During the summer I'll make statistics about h2h in the major leagues in Europe. Preparation is the most important thing. Thanks for the answer and keep posting the selections in case you think betting on Scandinavian and Russian teams is worth the risk in the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Hi JTW Have you looked at the odds on offer reflecting the advantage any given team has? The perfect example tonight of course is Dinamo Bucharest. As their advantage is 5-0-0 I was looking to lay Brasov but only if I could get odds which reflected this advantage. For me this was max 4.0 giving an assumed 2 point edge. For backing then perhaps with teams of a 5 game advantage maybe 1.3 or more might be something to consider. Where there is only a 4 game advantage maybe 1.4 and so on and so forth. Amazing how many times these stupid short odds end up failing:( Anyway it's just an idea as I know you are always looking at a method of improving things using these h2h stats. h2hstats.com has become my new bible now by the way taking over from soccerway haha!! Still have to use soccerway for some leagues as H2H doesn't cover it all. Argentine for one. But it's a very helpful site:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Thanks for the feedback guys and glad the stats are helping us beat the bookies :ok Elgoonerman , will check out the internatioals next week if i can , h2hstats doesn't cover those games but i'm sure site out there that can help. punterbg , good luck compiling those figures mate , definately keep an eye on the Brazilians [ a couple of guys on the Non-European leagues - Toronto Mike + Bagzi really know their stuff ] and Scandinavia [ King Theoden + kimera always worth reading ] happygooner , good to see a different approach to the stats , keep posting your ideas mate :ok Not a bad weekend again imo STEAUA v u.craiova 2-1 :loon ST PATS v bray 1-1 :eyes ST ETIENNE v valence 4-0 :loon MARSEILLE v rennes 4-0 :loon INTER MILAN v atalanta 4-3 :loon UDINESE v cagliari 6-2 :loon DINAMO BUCH v fc brasov 0-2 :eyes FLAMENGO v atletico-pr 2-1 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 7, 2009 Author Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings CRUZIERO v international 6-0-0 , odds = 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 12, 2009 Author Share Posted June 12, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings CRUZIERO v international 6-0-0 ' date=' odds = 1.9[/quote'] 1-1 Think both these are on Sunday ------------------------------- LAHTI v mariehamn 4-0-0 , odds = 1.9 CORITIBA v flamengo 5-0-0 , odds = 2.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trevman Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings whats your current bank balance from this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 12, 2009 Author Share Posted June 12, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings whats your current bank balance from this? In the Black if you must know .. I re-iterate the main object of these stats is to help the punter make a decision as to what he want's to bet NOT a straightforward bet-on-em-all system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trevman Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings In the Black if you must know .. I re-iterate the main object of these stats is to help the punter make a decision as to what he want's to bet NOT a straightforward bet-on-em-all system. in that case i guess a more appropriate question would be how many winners/losers have you had? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings in that case i guess a more appropriate question would be how many winners/losers have you had? Read back a bit, I recently counted them all up.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings I follow JTW1's selections and am able to get on to the majority with (usually) slightly better odds than JTW1's quoted average price. My stats for betting all the selections that I can get on as singles with a variable staking plan from 1st January this year are: Number of bets - 230 Winning bets - 144 Losing bets - 86 Average Odds - 1.77 Average Stake - £48.35 Yield - +6.66% Profit/Loss - +£740.31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings If all continues as it has been for me I will be starting a thread based around this idea laying teams who've not won this h2h fixture for several years/seasons dependant on price. It's amazing how often history ends up repeating itself! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 14, 2009 Author Share Posted June 14, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings I follow JTW1's selections and am able to get on to the majority with (usually) slightly better odds than JTW1's quoted average price. My stats for betting all the selections that I can get on as singles with a variable staking plan from 1st January this year are: Number of bets - 230 Winning bets - 144 Losing bets - 86 Average Odds - 1.77 Average Stake - £48.35 Yield - +6.66% Profit/Loss - +£740.31 I am very impressed davidc :clap LAHTI v mariehamn 1-1 [ late equaliser :( ] CORITIBA v flamengo 5-0 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 14, 2009 Author Share Posted June 14, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings If all continues as it has been for me I will be starting a thread based around this idea laying teams who've not won this h2h fixture for several years/seasons dependant on price. It's amazing how often history ends up repeating itself! Think now could be the time happygooner ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Think now could be the time happygooner ?? Almost....still don't want to jump the gun. A little bit down today after 2 Icelandic games went against me and Stabaek beat Valerenga away from home for first time in ages. Not to mention Saturn beating Lokomotiv also in what was apparently a very dodgy Russian week. Didn't lay Mariehamn as couldn't get the price I wanted. Basically I'm at around £300 from £100 and want to wait until breaking that £400 barrier. Had tooooooo many false dawns on here and I don't want this to be another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Sun - Norway --------------- ODD GRENLAND v START 6-0-0 , Odds = 1.85 - Ladbrokes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Sun - Norway --------------- ODD GRENLAND v START 6-0-0 , Odds = 1.85 - Ladbrokes. Laid Start there:@ Maybe it's just the general inconsistency of the leagues running at the moment but I've been stuck going up and down like a yo-yo ever since my last post.:( Yesterday it was Odd Grenland & GIF Sundsvall who messed things up. Today Grindavik lost to Breidablik in Iceland for the first time in ages. Saturday it was the turn of Chivas USA & Gamba Osaka to throw historic records out of the window. Any suggestions as this is beginning to hack me off:unsure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Hi mate, I have noticed you are on a similar playing field as me lately as you like the football laying just like myself. H2H stats are always important imo but don't over do it... they are not the be all and end all and won't always make a bet a 'good' bet. I always take H2H stats into account but you also have to consider home/away form, recent form and also team news (which can be hard to find on foreign games though). I also put a limit on how high I lay a team. For example you layed Start against Odd yesterday just because of the H2H stats. As Odd were odds on surely the odds for a Start win were correct therefore making the lay very poor value? Its just a suggestion but I personally try and price up the teams myself once I have all the stats in front of me and then I go from there. Also, I have also found Swedish & Norwegian football to be very inconsistent of late and Im actually considering dropping it altogether from my laying as I really do believe results can go either way. On the other hand I think Japan is a gold mine for lays at the moment and Ive made a mint in the past few weeks on Japanese football. Each to their own eh :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Hi mate, I have noticed you are on a similar playing field as me lately as you like the football laying just like myself. H2H stats are always important imo but don't over do it... they are not the be all and end all and won't always make a bet a 'good' bet. I always take H2H stats into account but you also have to consider home/away form, recent form and also team news (which can be hard to find on foreign games though). I also put a limit on how high I lay a team. For example you layed Start against Odd yesterday just because of the H2H stats. As Odd were odds on surely the odds for a Start win were correct therefore making the lay very poor value? Its just a suggestion but I personally try and price up the teams myself once I have all the stats in front of me and then I go from there. Also, I have also found Swedish & Norwegian football to be very inconsistent of late and Im actually considering dropping it altogether from my laying as I really do believe results can go either way. On the other hand I think Japan is a gold mine for lays at the moment and Ive made a mint in the past few weeks on Japanese football. Each to their own eh :D I have actually been laying up to a certain price depending upon the historical superiority. Odd Grenland may have been odds on but the thinking was perhaps they should have been even lower. To be fair they were leading at the half and almost 95% of the time that happens you get a draw bare minimum unless Moan U are involved:lol. Remember a Jap game where Jubilo Iwata were leading late in the 2nd half also only to lose 2 late goals. Have had several late late goals go against me also....talking 90th minute jobs. Had an 86th minute goal go against me the other day on a 1.26 lay of Hafnardjordur. It tries the old patience but consistency must be the key. Not actually losing much at the moment. Have turned into a break even punter which is better than nothing and a world away from my form on the horses:lol With my reasoning for laying certain prices though I've actually found myself to be missing so many winning lays and hitting all the losers so much so that I'm removing that particular restriction and taking the lay for what I can within reason. Needing a bare minimum of 4 h2h in my favour at the same ground in the same competition. JTW1 has proved that it works on a backing basis with almost impunity so why could the same not be true of laying is my question:unsure Another 2 lays I shied away from in Japan this last weekend based on price. Kashima and Urawa. Both won as you will know. If I can lay 7 winners at 5.00 and only have to suffer 1 loser in that space of time then that will be value. For a while this was happening (towards the end of the season). Unfortunately now every day I go in confident and one out of 2 from these I go away thinking oh well always tomorrow. Tomorrow's lay is Atavida in Superettan as Mjallby not lost this tie for donkeys. Laid @ 4.3 so let's see what happens there...:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 14, 2009 Author Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Good luck with your lay bet Happy :ok I agree with JJ that when backing or laying then every bit of info you can get hold of must help in decision making . Personally i thought the same as you and thought ODD might have been shorter !! , don't forget they were 1-0 up as well :@ I tend to keep stakes low in the Summer leagues as getting team info , injury news etc isn't as easy unless you can read Swedish/Finnish etc There are a few guys from that part of the world who post in the Scandinavian section of PL and i've found them to be very helpful when asked for help/opinions , maybe worth giving them a try ?? Must have a look at Japan , not a country i've ever considered tbh . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 14, 2009 Author Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Tomorrow's lay is Atavida in Superettan as Mjallby not lost this tie for donkeys. Laid @ 4.3 so let's see what happens there...:hope :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings :ok Would have been great had I not decided to go against everything I had been doing and laid Young Boys and some stupid Brazilian Serie B side at 6.2 as on paper they looked good to lose:sad Although Mjallby went well I am seriously considering a cap of no more than 4.00 absolute max for these lays as it's surprising just how many upsets I'm managing to pick at the moment around the 4.5-6.0 mark:@ Just looking at all my lower priced lays and I could have achieved a s/r of 25-13 with lays ranging from 1.76 - 3.5. Ok there was one of 1.26 (which almost won) but most around the 2.5-3.00 mark I think. Will try and calculate what kind of yield I would have got from these later when I have all the data at hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 18, 2009 Author Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings SAT ---- HAKA v VPS [ Finland ] 6-1-0 , odds = 1.7 DINAMO KIEV v chernomorets 6-0-0 , odds = 1.2 SH DONETSK v kryvbas 5-1-0 , odds = 1.18 SUN ---- HONKA v mariehamn [ Finland ] 4-0-0 , odds = 1.83 GOTEBORG v trelleborg [sweden ] 9-0-1 , odds = 1.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 19, 2009 Author Share Posted July 19, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings HAKA v VPS [ Finland ] 0-1 :$ DINAMO KIEV v chernomorets 5-0 :loon SH DONETSK v kryvbas 3-0 :loon HONKA v mariehamn [ Finland ] 1-1 :$ GOTEBORG v trelleborg [sweden ] 3-1 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 22, 2009 Author Share Posted July 22, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Brazil Serie A - 01:00 [gmt] Thursday morning SANTOS v atletico-pr 4-0-0 , ODDS - 1.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Brazil Serie A - 01:00 [gmt] Thursday morning SANTOS v atletico-pr 4-0-0 , ODDS - 1.61 1-0 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Head-to Head Meetings Tuesday - Norway Div1 ---------------------- SOGNDAL v kongsvinger 5-0-1 , odds = 1.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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