Player Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy @player hey, do you have your picks in an Excel sheet? Then i could do some analysis on it. Unfortunately I don't have Excel, any analysis I would do, I need to do it manually, so it takes tonns of time. :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Monday, March 5 Results Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NBA: Miami/Atlanta UNDER 185.5 -103 WINNER! Score: Atlanta/Miami 81-88, Won = 9.709 unitsPlatinum Plays T2: 42.411 units on: NBA: Milwaukee +5.5 +100 over Orlando LOSER! Score: Milwaukee/Orlando 81-99, Lost = 42.411 unitsRazor Sharp T3: 10.00 units on: NBA: Golden State/Detroit UNDER 196 +108 LOSER! Score: Golden State/Detroit 111-93, Lost = 10.00 unitsTotals4U T4: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Oklahoma St/Nebraska OVER 134 -100 * WINNER! Score: Oklahoma St/Nebraska 73-85, Won = 10.00 virtual unitsBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: Charlotte/Utah UNDER 202.5 +109 LOSER! Score: Charlotte/Utah 95-120, Lost = 10.00 units#1 Sports T6: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Oklahoma St/Nebraska OVER 134 -100 * WINNER! Score: Oklahoma St/Nebraska 73-85, Won = 10.00 virtual unitsComputer Sports T7: 10.00 units on: NBA: Miami -6 -102 over Atlanta WINNER! Score: Atlanta/Miami 81-88, Won = 9.804 unitsEasy Money Sports T8: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Western Kentucky -5 -109 over Arkansas St LOSER! Score: Arkansas St/Western Kentucky 80-73, Lost = 10.00 unitsNevada Sharpshooter T9: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Oklahoma St -1 +104 over Nebraska LOSER! Score: Oklahoma St/Nebraska 73-85, Lost = 10.00 unitsThe Scout T10: 42.398 units on: NCAAB: North Texas -2 -107 over Mid. Tennessee St. WINNER! Score: North Texas/Mid. Tennessee St. 59-52, Won = 39.624 units * 20.00 units on: NCAAB: Oklahoma St/Nebraska OVER 134 -100 WINNER! Score: Oklahoma St/Nebraska 73-85, Won = 20.00 units Total: Bets = 9, Won = 4, Lost = 5 Bankroll = -3.274 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 System total after Monday System total after Monday: Bets = 230, Won = 122, Lost = 103, Push = 5 Bankroll = +581.313 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Tuesday, March 5 (Day 24) Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NBA: Seattle/New York OVER 196 -117Platinum Plays T2: 95.849 units on: NBA: New York -2 -113 over SeattleRazor Sharp T3: 12.60 units on: NBA: New Jersey/Dallas OVER 191 -126 (the pick was given for 190.5, but 191 is the lowest it can be bought to)Totals4U T4: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Wright State +1.5 -108 over ButlerBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: LA Lakers/Minnesota OVER 198 +104#1 Sports T6: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Wright State +1.5 -108 over ButlerComputer Sports T7: 10.00 units on: NBA: New Jersey +11 +103 over DallasEasy Money Sports T8: 11.20 units on: NCAAB: Pennsylvania -7.5 -112 over PrincetonNevada Sharpshooter T9: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Portland State +2 +110 over Weber StateThe Scout T10: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Weber State -2.5 -110 over Portland State * For threads 4 and 6 a single bet is made: 20.00 units on: NCAAB: Wright State +1.5 -108 over Butler Total out = 189.649 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jquik Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy Hey there! Great looking system. Just out of interest... could be a silly question :P but what does it mean when you say: "Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NBA: Seattle/New York OVER 196 -117"or "Big Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: LA Lakers/Minnesota OVER 198 +104" The +/- bit at the end? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy Hey there! Great looking system. Just out of interest... could be a silly question :P but what does it mean when you say: "Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NBA: Seattle/New York OVER 196 -117"or "Big Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: LA Lakers/Minnesota OVER 198 +104" The +/- bit at the end? Those are the odds, in American format. :) To see them in European equivalent, just check any bookie (most of them have the odds in both formats). In the examples you quoted: If I had a winner on thread T1, because of -117 my payout (excuding the stake) would be 10 units/1.17 = 8.547 units. If I had a winner on thread T5, because of +104 my payout (excluding the stake) would be 10 units x 1.04 = 10.40 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy to explain i think I am right in saying if the odds are +104 for every £100 you put on you win £104 + your £100 stake back. If are -117 then every £100 you put on you win £83 + your £100 stake. I hope im right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jquik Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy Cheers for the speedy replies guys! Thought it must be something to do with odds but I wasn't too sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy to explain i think I am right in saying if the odds are +104 for every £100 you put on you win £104 + your £100 stake back. If are -117 then every £100 you put on you win £83 + your £100 stake. I hope im right. LOL staffy, you were close, but not quite right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy bloody USA cant they do anything simple. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy bloody USA cant they do anything simple. :tongue2 You're damn right, I agree with you as an European (Hungarian) living in the USA. :rollin They still have that bloody inch/foot and pounds systems too- both these and the metric/kg systems are teached in scools, but a few years later they completely forget is, cause in everyday life they use exclusively the American systems. :puke Not even speaking about measuring the temperature in F grades instead of C... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trollerboy Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy I also think the decimal odds are better than the us odds, but don´t worry the british fractional odds are even more stupid. don´t know why they still use it. maybe tradition. but back to the topic of the thread. player, i examined your results: ROI : approx. 6-7% I examined by just staking 1 unit per bet. The profit curve does show an upwards direction, but with very much horizontal movement. I´ve also done a statistical T-Test (i´m not a statistician, but i´ve read about this test in a betting book). The result of the test says that there is an 15% probability that your result has come about by chance. That´s not too bad, but not too good either. Honestly , you can better picks for free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapshot Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy Thanks Player for a great idea and keep up the good work :ok :notworthy I have an oddscoverting table that I use and I can put it here if there is need for it? Regards, slapshot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy Thanks Player for a great idea and keep up the good work :ok :notworthy I have an oddscoverting table that I use and I can put it here if there is need for it? Regards, slapshot Thanks, but I'm used with the american odds system, since I started betting just 5 years ago, and I was already in the USA at that time. I just dont like all the other measuring sytems in USA, but I'm fine with the odds... ;) But you can send it with PM to me, and then I'll post it back at the end of the opening post of the thread, so folks can see it if they need it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy I also think the decimal odds are better than the us odds, but don´t worry the british fractional odds are even more stupid. don´t know why they still use it. maybe tradition. but back to the topic of the thread. player, i examined your results: ROI : approx. 6-7% I examined by just staking 1 unit per bet. The profit curve does show an upwards direction, but with very much horizontal movement. I´ve also done a statistical T-Test (i´m not a statistician, but i´ve read about this test in a betting book). The result of the test says that there is an 15% probability that your result has come about by chance. That´s not too bad, but not too good either. Honestly , you can better picks for free. Thanks! :ok If you think of a better staking plan, with less danger than the actual one but still a better ROI than level stakes please just post it here. The picks are free anyways... :lol Did you observed which threads are more/less profitable? I feel that the first one is by far the best til now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapshot Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy Thanks, but I'm used with the american odds system, since I started betting just 5 years ago, and I was already in the USA at that time. I just dont like all the other measuring sytems in USA, but I'm fine with the odds... ;) But you can send it with PM to me, and then I'll post it back at the end of the opening post of the thread, so folks can see it if they need it. How do I PM you, Player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy How do I PM you' date=' Player?[/quote'] "slapshot has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her." Well, then post it here, and I will copy it inside of the opening post of the thread too. Not the world's end if it will be posted in 2 different places, LOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 Tuesday, March 6 Results Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NBA: Seattle/New York OVER 196 -117 WINNER! Score: Seattle/New York 100-99, Won = 8.547 unitsPlatinum Plays T2: 95.849 units on: NBA: New York -2 -113 over Seattle LOSER! Score: Seattle/New York 100-99, Lost = 95.849 unitsRazor Sharp T3: 12.60 units on: NBA: New Jersey/Dallas OVER 191 -126 PUSH! Score: New Jersey/Dallas 89-102Totals4U T4: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Wright State +1.5 -108 over Butler WINNER! Score: Butler/Wright State 55-60, Won = 9.259 virtual unitsBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: LA Lakers/Minnesota OVER 198 +104 WINNER! Score: LA Lakers/Minnesota 107-117, Won = 10.40 units#1 Sports T6: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Wright State +1.5 -108 over Butler WINNER! Score: Butler/Wright State 55-60, Won = 9.259 virtual unitsComputer Sports T7: 10.00 units on: NBA: New Jersey +11 +103 over Dallas LOSER! Score: New Jersey/Dallas 89-102, Lost = 10.00 unitsEasy Money Sports T8: 11.20 units on: NCAAB: Pennsylvania -7.5 -112 over Princeton WINNER! Score: Pennsylvania/Princeton 64-48, Won = 10.00 unitsNevada Sharpshooter T9: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Portland State +2 +110 over Weber State LOSER! Score: Portland State/Weber State 74-77, Lost = 10.00 unitsThe Scout T10: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Weber State -2.5 -110 over Portland State WINNER! Score: Portland State/Weber State 74-77, Won = 9.091 units * 20.00 units on: NCAAB: Wright State +1.5 -108 over Butler WINNER! Score: Butler/Wright State 55-60, Won = 18.518 units Total: Bets = 9, Won = 5, Lost = 3, Push = 1 Bankroll = -59.293 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 System total after Tuesday System total after Tuesday: Bets = 239, Won = 127, Lost = 106, Push = 6 Bankroll = +522.020 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 Wednesday, March 7 (Day 25) Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Eastern Michigan +2 -102 over Ball StatePlatinum Plays T2: 200.545 units on: NBA: Phoenix -16 -111 over Charlotte (the pick was given for -15.5, but -16 is the unique spread available)Razor Sharp T3: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Arizona St/Washington OVER 127 -100Totals4U T4: 10.00 units on: NBA: Houston/Boston OVER 184 -101Big Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: Indiana/Utah OVER 198 -109#1 Sports T6: 10.00 units on: NAAB: Houston -5 -126 over BostonComputer Sports T7: 10.50 units on: NCAAB: Cal Irvine -11 -105 over Cal RiversideEasy Money Sports T8: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Rice +4 -105 over UTEPNevada Sharpshooter T9: 22.80 units on: NCAAB: UAB -4.5 -114 over MarshallThe Scout T10: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Central Michigan +1.5 +104 over Buffalo Total out = 303.845 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 Wednesday, March 7 (Day 25) - Extra picks given Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NBA: Utah -10.5 -111 over IndianaBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: Charlotte/Phoenix OVER 218 +102Easy Money Sports T8: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: East Carolina +11.5 -104 over Tulsa Total out = 30.00 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Wednesday, March 7 Results Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Eastern Michigan +2 -102 over Ball State WINNER! Score: Ball State/Eastern Michigan 48-51, Won = 9.804 unitsPlatinum Plays T2: 200.545 units on: NBA: Phoenix -16 -111 over Charlotte LOSER! Score: Charlotte/Phoenix 106-115, Lost = 200.545 unitsRazor Sharp T3: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Arizona St/Washington OVER 127 -100 LOSER! Score: Arizona St/Washington 51-59, Lost = 10.00 unitsTotals4U T4: 10.00 units on: NBA: Houston/Boston OVER 184 -101 WINNER! Score: Houston/Boston 111-80, Won = 9.901 unitsBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: Indiana/Utah OVER 198 -109 LOSER! Score: Indiana/Utah 72-94, Lost = 10.00 units#1 Sports T6: 10.00 units on: NAAB: Houston -5 -126 over Boston WINNER! Score: Houston/Boston 111-80, Won = 7.936 unitsComputer Sports T7: 10.50 units on: NCAAB: Cal Irvine -11 -105 over Cal Riverside LOSER! Score: Cal Riverside/Cal Irvine 52-53, Lost = 10.50 unitsEasy Money Sports T8: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Rice +4 -105 over UTEP WINNER! Score: UTEP/Rice 74-77, Won = 9.524 unitsNevada Sharpshooter T9: 22.80 units on: NCAAB: UAB -4.5 -114 over Marshall LOSER! Score: UAB/Marshall 52-53, Lost = 22.80 unitsThe Scout T10: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Central Michigan +1.5 +104 over Buffalo WINNER! Score: Buffalo/Central Michigan 74-80, Won = 10.40 units Total: Bets = 10, Won = 5, Lost = 5 Bankroll = -206.280 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Wednesday, March 7 - Extra picks Results Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NBA: Utah -10.5 -111 over Indiana WINNER! Score: Indiana/Utah 72-94, Won = 9.009 unitsBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: NBA: Charlotte/Phoenix OVER 218 +102 WINNER! Score: Charlotte/Phoenix 106-115, Won = 10.20 unitsEasy Money Sports T8: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: East Carolina +11.5 -104 over Tulsa LOSER! Score: East Carolina/Tulsa 50-65, Lost = 10.00 units Total: Bets = 3, Won = 2, Lost = 1 Bankroll = +9.209 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Wednesday's total Wednesday's total: Bets = 13, Won = 7, Lost = 6 Bankroll = -197.071 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 System total after Wednesday System total after Wednesday: Bets = 252, Won = 134, Lost = 112, Push = 6 Bankroll = +324.949 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Thursday, March 8 (Day 26) - Round 1 Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Miami-Ohio +1 -124 over Ohio U *Platinum Plays T2: 415.526 units on: NCAAB: Florida State +1 -109 over ClemsonRazor Sharp T3: 20.00 units on: NCAAB: Colorado/Texas Tech OVER 147.5 +100Totals4U T4: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Missouri -4 -111 over BaylorBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Arizona/Oregon OVER 150 -105#1 Sports T6: 10.00 units on: NAAB: Georgia -2.5 -105 over AuburnComputer Sports T7: 19.712 units on: NCAAB: Ohio U pk +104 over Miami-OhioEasy Money Sports T8: 10.50 units on: NCAAB: South Carolina +6 -105 over ArkansasNevada Sharpshooter T9: 38.559 units on: NCAAB: Ohio U -1 +111 over Miami-Ohio *The Scout T10: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Stanford +2.5 -104 over USC * For threads 1 and 9 a single bet is made: 28.559 units on: NCAAB: Ohio U -1 +111 over Miami-Ohio Total out = 534.297 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy Here we go again... The clown on thread 2 has lost 6 in row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted March 8, 2007 Share Posted March 8, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy At least it is a paper trail and not your real money!!! Have you compiled a spreadsheet for the strike rate of each tout? Mike Wynn, seems to have a fantastic record... I wish betfair had the markets as I would be following him religiously! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Re: Free picks frenzy At least it is a paper trail and not your real money!!! Have you compiled a spreadsheet for the strike rate of each tout? Mike Wynn, seems to have a fantastic record... I wish betfair had the markets as I would be following him religiously! I have not done any analysis on every thread yet, but I'll do it some time soon. Yeah, Mike Wynn looks very good, but I dunno that he's just very hot right now, or he's generally good (sensibly better than the others on this website), without big losing streaks... As you remember, "bookie" paid for his premium picks, and posted here that he got like 5 losers in row, or something like this. Hey mate, do you have any ideas for another kind of staking (but not level stakes), to avoid the big bets, if some of the touts lose 5 or more in row? I asked the guys to post their suggestions here, but so far none of them has any, just everybody agrees that using this staking method is too dangerous, because any time one of them can lose 8 in row*, or 2 of them can lose 6 or 7 in row in the same time**, and these would break the bank. Also it's nonsense IMO, if applying this staking I use now, to begin with a starting bank of more than 200 times x the standard unit, because then the gains would be to low compared to the bank used. Yet even a 200 times x the standard unit bank represents not enough safety margin if * or ** happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Re: Thursday, March 8 (Day 26) - Round 2 Mike Wynn T1: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Wake Forest +10 -105 over Georgia TechRazor Sharp T3: 10.00 units on: NCAAB: Georgia - 3 -111 over AuburnBig Time T5: 10.00 units on: Fullerton -4 +102 over PacificComputer Sports T7: 41.017 units on: NCAAB: Louisville -3.5 -102 over West Virginia Total out = 71.017 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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