JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Saturday see's us going for a hat-trick of winners in the TOLWORTH HURDLE at Sandown . To cut a long story short the most sucessful couple of stats are that 9 out of 10 winners have been returned in the top 3 in the betting and of those no less than 8 were Fav or 2nd Fav . Add that to the fact that P NICHOLS has had 4 winners and three 2nd's from that last 8 runnings and it's clear to see that MAHONIA carries the cash tomorrow providing its starts at 1st or 2nd fav .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sandown abd :@ Oh well lets have a look across the water and there's an interesting race at CORK this afternoon in the 2:05 . This Maiden Hurdle has been confined to 5yo for the past 7 runnings . 7/7 winners were returned either FAV or 2nd FAV . 7/7 had previous NH racecourse experience Only 1 mare has won in 7 runnings So concentrating of the market leaders leaves us with FIXED FEE who looks like strating the Fav and has ran 3 times . Next in the betting are AWKWARD MOMENT + MUSICIENNE the obvious downdsides they have is that AWKWARD MOMENT has never set foot on a racetrack in it's life and MISICIENNE is a female of the species !! FIXED FEE gets the nap here.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Sandown abd :@ Oh well lets have a look across the water and there's an interesting race at CORK this afternoon in the 2:05 . This Maiden Hurdle has been confined to 5yo for the past 7 runnings . 7/7 winners were returned either FAV or 2nd FAV . 7/7 had previous NH racecourse experience Only 1 mare has won in 7 runnings So concentrating of the market leaders leaves us with FIXED FEE who looks like strating the Fav and has ran 3 times . Next in the betting are AWKWARD MOMENT + MUSICIENNE the obvious downdsides they have is that AWKWARD MOMENT has never set foot on a racetrack in it's life and MISICIENNE is a female of the species !! FIXED FEE gets the nap here.

1ST FIXED FEE @ 2/1 FAV :loon

[RussP]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done mate, great winner:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers RUSS :ok Have spotted one i highlighted last season and it looks worth an interest . We won't get rich on this one but the Age , Trainer and returned SP's all point to CHAPOTURGEON in the 1.25 Novice Chase at PLUMPTON on Sunday. 5/6 winners were returned as clear FAV and the one that failed was 2nd @ 5/6 to an 11/10 shot!! 5/6 were aged 5 -7 y-old P NICHOLS has had 2 winners and a 2nd from 3 runners. CHAPOTURGEON is a 5yo , NICHOLS trained horse who will probably start FAV .

[evad]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends nice 1 jtw1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I think it's safe to say that the racing bug has had a nibble at me again and once more i'm taking an interest in the game. As regulars will know i stick to Non-Handicaps , Non-Claimers and mostly the higher Grade races . There are much less of these Grade events over the sticks as there is on the Flat so there will be less selections but i will keep an eye on any Novice events or even AW races that have any eye-catching stats attatched to any of these races . Taking the start of this current batch of trend races from MOURAD on the 30th of Dec the record is - 2nd , 2nd , 1st @ 2/1 Selections - 3 wins - 1 Profit/Loss - 0pts to a 10pt level stake . One thing i will try to concentrate on is where it's feasable to have 2 or more selections which will ensure a decent return if one wins , then i will nominate all i consider to have a winning chance . Looking at most of the other regular threads that seems to be the norm nowadays and it seems to work.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends No decent class racing left after Punchestown's abandonment but there's a couple of stats in the 1:45 at LINGFIELD that catch the eye . LING 1;45 8F Median Auction Stakes cl5 ----------------------------------------- 8/10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting [ 5 favs ] 8/10 had previous racecourse experience and 7/8 of those had been placed no worse than 5th LTO. 5/7 races [where there were double figure runners] were won by a horse drawn in the top half of the draw. There have 8 fillies that have started at odds of 8/1 or lower and their record is - 1 , 2, 0, 4 ,2 , 3 , 1 , 2 . Considering the odds stats first leaves us with COMMANDINGPRESENCE , PREMIER ANGEL and HALJAFERIA. All 3 have ran before and were placed LTO , however HALJAFERIA is drawn from stall 2 which is a negative imo and is rejected on that basis. COMMANDINGPRESENCE [ Filly] will start around Even money Fav according to betfair and being drawn 11 and the trainer having won this race before certainly should have a Favs chance . Spencer takes the ride so i'll let you decide whether thats good or bad :lol It finished 2nd LTO but that was at Wolves PREMIER ANGEL is trained by J CHAPPLE-HYAM and was a close 2nd LTO on the track . Drawn 12 of 12 suits me fine and it's the added fact that it's a Filly and is around the 4/1 mark gives it value to me . Selection - PREMIER ANGEL

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends PREMIER ANGEL unp :@ Was well backed from 7/2 down to 5/2 but well beaten behind the 40/1 winner !!!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LEOPARDSTOWN 1:15 Grade 2 Nov Chase 2m5f -------------------------------------------------- 8/10 were either FAV or 2nd FAV 8/10 were aged 6 or 7yo [ there have been 2 6yo winners from just 9 runners of that age group ] 7/8 had won that season 8/10 had ran within 29 days of it's previous outing , the other 2 were making thier seasonal debut . 7/10 had won a Graded Hurdle The market leaders are MERCHANT PADDY and FINANCIAL REWARD. Of those 2 MERCHANT PADDY is an 8yo who has never won at Graded level when racing over Hurdles so i'm passing that over in favour of FINANCIAL REWARD who is one of only two 6yo's in the race and won a Grade 2 hurdle . It ran 16 days ago and has won twice this season. Gives the other runners at least 5lb but the stable is in form and Ruby Walsh is on board . LEOPARDSTOWN 3:55 NH Flat 2m ------------------------------------ With only one FAV winning and NO Fillies winning in the past 9 runnings the most eye-catching stats , but along with those are the 3 wins from the E HALES yard and 2 wins from T TAFFE's yard . HALE'S won this 2 seasons ago when i first highlighted this fact and last season had the 2nd [ btn only a half length ] We have to assume that the trainer targets this race and so a bet on RAGTIME is the call .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Looks like BOHEMIAN LASS might start 2nd Fav here and although a 6 yo it hasn't won at Graded level in it's career so the selection is still FINANCIAL REWARD.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1ST - MERCHANT PADDY @ 2/1 2nd Fav , FINANCIAL REWARD unp :eyes

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RAGTIME Unp after being backed down from 11/2 to 4/1 :@

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 12:30 NEWCASTLE - WEDS. Straight forward this one :\ , honest !!! MW EASTERBY has a record in this race when he has a runner , since 2000 , of -1st 7/2 , 3rd 3/1 , 1st 5/1 , 2nd 16/1 , 1st 11/2 , 1st 4/1 , 3rd 9/2 and tomorrow he saddles CROW SPINNEY , i suggest an EW bet on this one

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1:55 NEWBURY --------------- Again a straight-to-the point selection ;) The FAV has won the last 4 runnings [ only been 6 previous runnings of this Nov Hurdle] N HENDERSON has had 2 entries in those 6 runnings and both have won . MAD MAX will start FAV and is trained by HENDERSON .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MAD MAX 1st @ 4/5 fav :loon Unfortunately NEWCASTLE was abandoned :eyes

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends nice winner JTW, the favourites stat was worth following here :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers BOWLES and here's another quickie for LUDLOW tomorrow - 4:10 LUDLOW is a NH Flat race and N HENDERSON has had 3 entries in the 6 runnings of this and ALL have won . ACORDEON is his entry this season :hope ------------------------------------------- On a more in-depth level there's an interesting couple of divisions of the Nov Hurdle at TAUNTON TAUNTON 1:20 + 1:50 17f Cl 4 Nov Hurdle --------------------------------------------- 9/9 were aged 5yo [7] or 4yo [2]. 8/9 were returned 1st or 2nd FAV . 4 were making their debuts under NH rules the other 5 who had a run that NH season had ran no than twice and no more than 32 days previously. 9/9 had won [6] or been placed 2nd or 3rd on the Flat. N HENDERSON = 3 wins PIPE [Martin] = 3wins HOBBS , KING + WILLIAMS = 1win Always difficult to try and narrow down which horses will end up FAV / 2nd Fav so i've included the top 4/5 from the RP forecast to consider. DIV 1 ----- SILK HALL MOVES GOODENOUGH BENFLEET BOY QUARTZ OF THAIX ARAYAN MOVES GOODENOUGH although a 4 time winner on the Flat comes from a lesser yard that usually takes this event and is a 6yo . BENFLEET BOY [5yo] again comes from a 'lesser' stable and the stable has been quiet of late 0 placed from 15 runners in the past 14 days. QUARTZ OF THAIX [5yo] has not even ran on the Flat won on the Flat but this ex-French horse has the benefit of being trained by V WILLIAMS . ARRAYAN [4yo] is another ex-French beats who has ran but never won on the Flat. Trained by P HOBBS is a plus but hasn't ran for 42 days when finishing tailed-off in a 2m Novice at Wincanton SILK HALL [4yo] will probably statt in the top 2 in the betting , is trained by A KING , has won twice on the Flat and makes it's NH debut here . With the yard getting winners steadily and the last 2 of 3 runnings being won by a 4yo i can't see any negatives so it gets the nod here :hope DIV 2 ----- ERADICATE MY MOMENT YETHOLM PRINCE SABAAH MY MOMENT is a 6yo who has had 3 runs and never run/won on the Flat so thats that one taken care of. YETHOLM [4yo] makes it's NH debut here and has a 2nd to it's name on the Flat . Trained by P HOBBS whose stable has to be respected here . PRINCE SABAAH [5yo] has won on the Flat , ran 30 days ago when 2nd in a Folkestone Novice . Trained by V WILLIAMS is also a plus . ERADICATE [5yo] makes it's NH debut for the HENDERSON yard here .It has by far the best form of those with Flat form - Won a Hamilton Listed event and a Cl 2 Handicap at Haydock. Sure to start FAV , unless someone else knows different ;) , the record of the stable in this race and this season means it gets lumbered with the nap. For those who like to take on the FAV i think that PRINCE SABAAH will make the Fav pay for any mistakes.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ACORDEON 2nd @ 7/2 :( ERADICATE 1st and earns a quote of 16/1 for the Triumph but was returned @ 4/9 fav here :\ SILK HALL 4th @ 13/8f :( at least we did metion the 1 2 and 3 !!!

P
1			Quartz de Thaix (FR)	11-5	S Thomas	Miss V Williams	5	16/1
2		3¾	Moves Goodenough	11-11	A P McCoy	Andrew Turnell	6	4/1
3		7	Benfleet Boy	11-11	K Renwick	B G Powell	5	10/3
4		1¼	Silk Hall (UAE)	10-7	R Thornton	A King	4	13/8 f

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SAT ---- First of all here's the stats that i posted for last season's PETER MARSH Chase at Haydock which was subsequently abandoned - HAYDOCK 2.00 PETER MARSH CHASE. ------------------------------------ 9/9 have been aged 8-10 y-olds 9/9 have carried 11:01 or under 1/9 was FAV . 1/9 was making it's seasonal debut 8/9 were 8/1 or under in the betting 8/8 had been placed between 1st-3rd that season 8/9 had course experience [either hurdles /chase or both ] Applying these plus the fact that the last 5 winners had ran no later than 28 days previously and we have a nicely priced selection . So here's a quick rundown of the top 6 in the betfair mapket as it stands right now - DEAR VILLEZ fails on being a 7yo carrying above 11:01 , last ran 49days ago and is Southern trained . CLOUDY LANE only fails on carrying top weight of 11:10 , but imo this is probably the most important stat of the one's highlighted. KANDJAR D'ALLIER fails as it's an 11 yo and last ran 72 days ago , also Southern trained . MONTGERMONT ticks all the right boxes with the exception of geography It is 9yo , carrys 10:04 , last ran only 28 days ago and has been placed 2nd on the Hurdles course [ a bit tenuous i know but ... ] It has been placed this season [3rd ] and like 3 of the past 5 winners has only ran twice this season It is currently 8.0 [ 7/1 ] so it gets the vote here . MIKO DE BEAUCHENE carrys 11:7 and not been placed this season OPERA MUNDI is only 7yo , just carries slightly over the weight limit [ 11:02] but last ran 63 days ago and only finished 6th in it's one run this season. ASCOT 1.40 Grade 2 Nov Chase --------------------------------- 8/8 aged 5 - 8yo 7/9 were Fav or 2nd Fav NICHOLS has won 3 from 4 runners 4 of the last 7 were FRENCH Breds With the top 2 in the betting forecast well ahead of the 3rd Fav it seems safe to concentrate on those 2 and with the probable FAV FREE WORLD being a French-bred 5yo trained by P NICHOLS it's another no-brainer i'm afraid. Here's a couple of quickies - HAYDOCK 2.25 - This Grade 2 Novice Hurdle has been won 3 times from 4 entries by N HENDERSON'S yard. FAV'S have won 4/7 with the other 3 being returned 4/1 or under . CLAY HOLLISTER is around the 3/1 mark and is HENDERSON'S representative this year with AP on board itmust have a decent shout. The 1.15 @ LINGFIELD has been won by the FAV 5 times from 7 runnings.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends You have to :lol otherwise you'd just:cry !!!! Yes that kind of day :\ Started off with the FAV unplaced in the 1.15 @ LINGFIELD :eyes That was quickly followed by the trouncing of the highly thought off FREE WORLD at odds on , 4/5 fav :eyes MONTGERMONT was well backed in the Peter Marsh and Mick Fitzgerald had just had time to say that he thought the selection made too many mistakes to be at 2nd Fav when it clouted the 1st , giving the jockey no chance of staying in the saddle :eyes CLAY HOLLISTER - cuffed :eyes Bring back the Flat ASAP !!!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CHELTENHAM 2.35 Grade 2 chase 3m1f ------------------------------------------ 10/10 carried 11:04 or above. 10/10 had ran that season but no more than twice and none had Fell/UR. 9/10 were returned in the top 4 in the market but only one FAV has won. 9/10 were rated 160+ 9/10 had won a Listed/Graded race. 9/10 had won that season. 7/9 had ran over the course and been placed in the first 3 Concentrating on the market and we leave out OLLIE MAGERN , SNOOPY LOOPY , JOE LIVELY and ROLL ALONG . STAR DE MOHAISON only carries 11:00 and has not won this season . Coupled with the fact that the ground will not suit and WALSH has chosen the other NICHOLS runner gives enough grounds for rejection. The probable Fav HALCON GENELARDAIS again carries only 11:00 and has not won this season. TIDAL BAY ticks all the boxes carrying 11:06 , will start in the first 4 in the betting , has ran 3 times this season and won once , is rated 166 and is a Course winner. One major doubt is the ground as it is definately a negative for this Howard Johnston runner. NOZIC would have the selection to itself apart from the fact it Unseated it's rider first time out this season but won next time out in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Ruby Walsh takes the ride here and being an ex-French horse the heavy going will suit it fine. Summary - Got to take the view that TIDAL BAY has the best chance on the stats but it's better ability on better going means that NOZIC's u/r on it's first outing is negated by the love of Heavy/Soft going. So a bet on both is advised . TIDAL BAY available at 7.2 on Betfair NOZIC is available at 5.5 on Betfair

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NOZIC PU :eyes TIDAL BAY 3rd :( TUESDAY --------- FOLK 2.50 2m6f Nov Hur 8 OUT OF 9 won by 1st or 2nd Fav. [ other winner was 3rd Fav] 8 out of 9 won by 6 or 7y-old. 8 out of 9 placed between 1st - 3rd LTO So will it be ALDERLUCK or THE OLD PRETENDER , the reciept of 7lb means that THE OLD PRETENDER gets the nod. Keep an eye on P NICHOLS runners at TAUNTON tomorrow , altough you can always expect him to have winners at a track like Taunton , his record in this meeting is above even his high average, imo In the corresponding races previously run in recent years he has won 10 from 29 races with the BEGINNERS CHASE 2/3 and the following 3m Nov Hurdle , 3/5 having the best records

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends THE OLD PRETENDER finishes 2nd to a 40-1 shot :eyes with ALDERLUCK 11L back in 3rd . Meanwhile NICHOLS bags a short-price hat-trick and a 2nd from 4 runners. Winners were returned at 2/11 f , 1/3 f and a nice 2-1 to end the day with.

[Spooner]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends followed your selection today jtw and you was very unlucky having beaten the main danger. onwards and upwards though. :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends WED - NEWCASTLE 2.30 - A 2m Nov H'cap Chase. Has been run 8 times with only one winner carrying over 10:12. ALL were aged between 5-8y-old. ALL were single figures in the betting. Of those down to carry below the ideal weight 3 are outsiders and TOULOUSE EXPRESS is a 10y-o . So the nap is the 7yo FRITH , already a winner over the bigger obstacles and around 6/1 in the betting f/cast

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FRITH U/R :( SAT - SANDOWN 3.45 - 3M110Y H'CAP CHASE. 10/11 won by a horse from the bottom half of the Handicap 10/11 was returned at odds of 6/1 or UNDER LTO 9/11 had won at least at CLASS 3 level over chases 9/11 were between 2nd - 5th fav [ all under 11/1] 1/11 were FAV 8/11 were aged 8 or 10 , NO 6y-old from 11 runners has won. 7/11 was placed 1st or 2nd LTO 5/11 had a break of 60+ days 0/11 had ran within 13 days previously Take out the top 4 in the handicap [ GUNGADU , MONKERHOSTIN, LACOUDAL, ERIC'S CHARM ] then apply the strating price stat which takes care of ACCORDING TO JOHN . Apply the Class/Grade stat gets rid of SOMETHING WELLS [Cl 3 win] , CAN'T BUY TIME [Cl3 win] and SOUND ACCORD [Cl 4 win] That leaves the P NICHOLS representative NEW LITTLE BRIC as the selection , a course winner , the only nagging doubt is the ground as it hasn't won on anything worse than G/S .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NEW LITTLE BRIC unp :eyes WEDNESDAY - DOWN ROYAL 2.15 2M4F MAIDEN HURDLE 7/7 won by the FAV [ 4 CLEAR , 1 JT + 1 CO-FAV ] 6/7 carried OVER 10:13 5/7 ran within 30 days of their last outing 7/7 placed between 2nd-4th in either of their last 2 outings 7/7 were returned at odds of UNDER 8/1 LTO. 0/7 were ridden by a claimer JUDGE ROY BEAN is a clear Fav according to the RP F/cast , it carries 11:12 and finished 3rd LTO @ 3/1. One minor negative is that it last ran 37 days ago but we won't hold that against it . Won't win fortunes at the odds but everything is in it's favour and lets :hope that the meeting goes ahead .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends JUDGE ROY BEAN [ evens fav ] 2nd btn a half length after fading on the run-in :(

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

FRITH U/R :( SAT - SANDOWN 3.45 - 3M110Y H'CAP CHASE. 10/11 won by a horse from the bottom half of the Handicap 10/11 was returned at odds of 6/1 or UNDER LTO 9/11 had won at least at CLASS 3 level over chases 9/11 were between 2nd - 5th fav [ all under 11/1] 1/11 were FAV 8/11 were aged 8 or 10 , NO 6y-old from 11 runners has won. 7/11 was placed 1st or 2nd LTO 5/11 had a break of 60+ days 0/11 had ran within 13 days previously Take out the top 4 in the handicap [ GUNGADU , MONKERHOSTIN, LACOUDAL, ERIC'S CHARM ] then apply the strating price stat which takes care of ACCORDING TO JOHN . Apply the Class/Grade stat gets rid of SOMETHING WELLS [Cl 3 win] , CAN'T BUY TIME [Cl3 win] and SOUND ACCORD [Cl 4 win] That leaves the P NICHOLS representative NEW LITTLE BRIC as the selection , a course winner , the only nagging doubt is the ground as it hasn't won on anything worse than G/S .

Sides were splitting when that one came in today ,with not a penny on, @ 14's today , after the stinker it ran in the above .:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@