JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[Kanga]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Some great tipping there JT .... :clap

[vivalevert]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends still knocking them in jt!! smk here by the way

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Let's get armed up for the start of the Flat next week by having a look a couple of Graded races on the AW at Lingfield on Saturday . 2.35 7f Listed 3 y-olds --------------------------- 6/6 were in the top 4 in the betting 6/6 had won at least once in their career , 5 won Last time out . 6/6 were rated 93+ Take the top 4 in the betting gives us ELNAWIN , DAMIEN , FIVE STAR JUNIOR and NASHMIAH. All are rated over 93 and only ELNAWIN and FIVE STAR JUNIOR won LTO so an advantage to those 2 . However FIVE STAR HERO has race 10 times , only once further than 6 f and it finished 3rd in a 7f Handicap . Being by a sire whose winning ave was only 6.0f it could have problems lasting out that extra furlong. The same could be said of DAMIEN whose sire'a ave was 6.4f , has only ran once over 7f [ a very respectable 2nd only btn a nk ] then dropped back to 6f in it's subsequent 2 outings ELNAWIN and NASHMIAH look better bets for me . ELNAWIN is rated 110 and has been highly tried and won the Group 3 Sirenia Stks last time out on the AW at Kempton . Before that it won a 300k Class 2 race at Newmarket beating DAMIEN into 3rd at level weights. Interestingly P DOBB's keeps the ride while Richard HUGHES is on a 16/1 shot for the stable. NASHMIAH has won over 8f so no problem about staying and was 3rd in a Group 3 LTO st Newmarket , indeed it's last 3 runs were in that grade and all were over 7f .Certanly not disgraced in those [ 4th/13 and 5th/11 ] she will certanly appreciate the drop in Class and Clive BRITTAIN has won 2 of the 6 runnings of this race. He has booked JAMIE SPENCER to ride the filly here and he has an impressive strike rate of 5 wins from 12 mounts for the stable on the AW over the past 5 seasons. STAKE 7pts win ELNAWIN @ 11/4 STAKE 3pts win NASMIAH @ 7/1 Odds from bet365.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1st NASMIAH @ 7/1 :loon :cheers 2nd ELNAWIN @ 5/2 ;) Anyone clever enough to have gone for the forecast ?? I wasn't :$

[TheRat]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Superb :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers The Rat :ok Simple one for Sunday , the 5.15 at The Curragh [1m Maiden] has only been run 5 times and all 5 have been won by a horse from the top 3 in the betting . However thats not the main stat for this race , that belongs to the record of John OXX which is quite eye-catching to say the least. 3 winners from the 5 runnings and in the 2 races where he didn't win he had the 2nd in one and no less than the 2nd , 3rd AND 4th in the other !!! All his 3 winners were making their racecourse debut as does his runner tomorrow - CLUAIN ALAINN who is 3rd Fav in the RP forecast . Thought we'd have a selection in the Group 3 at the meeting but it's has only been run as a Grp3 in the past 3 years . I have gathered the winning statistics for the Irish Lincoln from a chap who has a Trends blog featuring Irish racing and using the stats he gives i have narrowed the field down to IRISH HEARTBEAT , NAZDAQ and SILVER TIDE . Hopefully the winner will come from those 3. If it's ok i'd like to post a link to his blog as it's quite informative for Irish racing Trends . If any mod has an objection then let me know , otherwise i'll put up the link tomorrow .

[fintron]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Great work Jtw. When the results came in I remembered seeing the names on here, but couldn't put my finger on where! Lovely forecast too!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers Wayne :ok A couple of things to clear up for the Irish Lincoln 1- POLLEN should be added to the list of 3 i posted last night 2- NAZDAQ is removed as it is currently 25/1 [ 30/1 ] on betfair , highest winning odds were 20/1 . 3- SILVER TIDE and IRISH HEARTBEAT are on the upper limit of the odds stat . Heres the link ot the blog i mentioned - http://irishracingtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/lincoln-curragh-march-22nd-key-trends.html POLLEN , IRISH HEARTBEAT + SILVER TIDE are the 3 to consider

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CLUAIN ALAINN unp :eyes , opened at 6/4 drifted out to 5/2 so not a great deal of confidence and it showed . Irish Lincoln- POLLEN , IRISH HEARTBEAT + SILVER TIDE are the 3 to consider 1ST - POLLEN @ 7/1 :loon

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends The Flat returns tomorrow and :hope we can keep last weeks luck going . As i have stated before i concentrate on Listed to Group 1 races and will keep track of all those bets as the season progresses . The race i'm concentrating on is the CAMMIDGE . However , since it's the first day , i've had a look at some other races tomorrow [ last years trends were handy to have ] and post my opinions 2.10 BROCKLESBY STAKES 10/11 returned at odds of 14/1 or UNDER [only 1 co-Fav] 8/11 were Colts. 10/11 were FEB / MARCH foals. 9/11 were sired by a horse which had an average winning distance [according to Racing Post ] of between 6.6f - 7.7 f None had average of over 8.9f. Looking a bit closer into the sex of the winner and although Colts have won the last 8 runnings , Fillies have 3 wins , three 2nd's and eight 3rd places from 54 runners , nearly 33% of all runners. A filly has been placed between 1st , 2nd and 3rd in 8/11 runnings. So it would be foolish to discount their chance. Draw - Historically its usually either High or Low numbers that prevail . With 22 due to take part on Saturday i think that High numbers could hold the key. In past races where there was 18+ runners the first three home were drawn - 19,14,13 [19 ran] , 10,2,18 [18 ran] , 16,13,12 [18 ran] , 21,8,13 [22 ran] 2 other race had 17 runners , the first 3 home = 15,4,14 + 10,16,11. Those races were on going ranging from GOOD to SOFT. Wm TURNER'S runners in this are always worth considering having had a runner in every race since '98 - 7th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 1st, unp, 3rd, 5th, 1st, unp, 1st is a good record for a relatively unfashionable stable imo. So first of all taking into account the odds on offer at BETFAIR , there are 5 at around 14/1 or below - COULD IT BE MAGIC EIGHT HOURS SWILLY FERRY WHIPPERS LOVE CHICITA BANANA COULD IT BE MAGIC comes from the Wm TURNER yard , which gave us the winner last season but this years runner is an APRIL foal and his sire's progeny's winning ave is 9.8 f . Drawn 18 is also a big positive. Stable have had 4 placed from 8 runners in the past 14 days EIGHT HOURS is a Feb foal but is only drawn 4 . His sire's progeny's winning ave is 6.6f. The stable is in good form with 5 winners from 9 runners over the AW + Jumps within the past 14 days. SWILLY FERRY is a Feb foal whose sire is a relative newcomer but won over 6 f as a 2yo and his sire's ave was 7.6f . Drawn very nicely in stall 21. B HILL'S yard has had 3 winners and 4 seconds from 12 runners in the past 14 days. WHIPPERS LOVE is another Feb foal who is the first crop of foals from it's sire who won 3 times over 6f as a 2yo. Drawn in stall 13 , not the worst but not the best . The stable have had 9 winners from 25 runners in the past fortnight. CHICITA BANANA represents the filly's but being drawn 6 is a negative. A Feb foal whose sire's progeny's winning ave is 8.0f , also a negative. The yard has sent out 3 winners from 13 runners in the past 14 days. Summary - A lot hinges on the effect of the draw with the current going forecast as G/F but the RP also agrees with me that high numbers are preferred , only 3 horses have been placed from a single figure draw in 5 races over 5f with 17+ runners. So that eliminates the filly CHICITA BANANA [ also fails on sires record ] and EIGHT HOURS . COULD IT BE MAGIC ,even though it's from the TURNER yard and has a decent 18 draw , fails heavily on it's pedigree stat. Which leaves us with the two whose sire's are relatively new the side of the sport but would appear to have plenty of speed in their blood . It's hard to split SWILLY FERRY and WHIPPERS LOVE with both stables putting out recent winners , the one slight advantage that the former has is the higher draw . If the BETFAIR market stays the same as now then neither will start Fav so i'm going split stakes on both .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 3.20 CAMMIDGE TROPHY 9/10 returned at odds of 16/1 or UNDER. 10/11ran in at least LISTED company LTO. 1/10 had ran on AW LTO. 8/10 were aged 4-6yo [ 32 7yo+ horses have ran with only one win ] 8/10 had won at least at Class 2 level DRAW - With 16 runners due to take part here , the most for at least last 10 years , again it's the HIGH numbers which could hold the key imo. 17 ran in 2008 [g/s] - 16,9,17 were the first 3 home 17 ran in 2004 [good] - 16,17,12 were the first 3 home 16 ran in 2001 [soft] - 10,16,9 were the first 3 home . The other 8 races had only 13 runners or less but even in those the horse's drawn in the highest has at least been placed . Again taking the odds [ from BETFAIR ] into account we have to consider those at around 16/1 or UNDER who are drawn 9+ and are aged 4-6yo. That leaves us with INXILE and VITZNAU to consider. INXILE has won at Listed Grade , though that was over 5f there is a suspicion that 5f is more his trip ; it has a 2nd [Grp 3] and 3rd [Listed] to it's name over 6f in Listed company . NICHOLS has had 6 wins from 14 runners in the past fortnight VITZNAU is a 7f specialist with 3 of it's 4 career wins over that trip but it has won at 6f so i feel it would appreciate some rain to slow the ground up . HANNON has had 4 wins from 19 in the prev 14 days. SUMMARY - If the rains don't come that will be a negative for VITZNAU as it really wants another furlong and although INXILE is the opposite in the fact it would be better over the minimum , it's 3rd at Chantilly in a Group 3 event when noted as 'running on ' last time out and the fact it has a slightly better draw gets it the nod .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Don't usually do Handicaps but in my eagerness for the Flat to start i've gathered a few stats for the LINCOLN so heres what i came up with. 13/13 had won over 8f 12/13 were aged 4-6yo 12/13 were Southern trained 11/13 were returned at 22/1 or UNDER 11/13 carried 9:00 MAX 10/13 had won at least at Cl 2 grade Apply all those and we're left with - HUZZAH ZAAHID TITAN TRIUMPH 7 out of 8 of TITAN'S wins have been on the AW so i'm going for the 2 HILLS representatives to have the best chance with HUZZAH drawn 17 and ZAAHID drawn 2 one of them must have an advantage :lol

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Review -------- BROCKLESBY - SWILLY FERRY [3rd] ran well and looked at one stage a furlong out that he was coming to challenge but his effort perted out and he finished a creditable 3rd @ 9/2 Fav. WHIPPERS LOVE unp and never in the hunt. CAMMIDGE - IXILE [5th] as i feared 6f is probably just a furlong too far for this one , ran prominently then ran out of steam in the final 1f , interestingly the first 3 were all drawn in single figures and it's unusual for the ground to be as Firm at this time of the season. VITZNAU was ding his best work at the end , finishing 4th , and if this one runs at 7f next time out then he will be worth an investment imo. LINCOLN - ZAAHID ran a cracker to finish 2nd to the FAV , again the first 3 were drawn in single figures , while HUZZAH came down the middle with only 4 others for company so it's final place of 5th was again a creditable performance . Will be watching out for all 6 next time out ;)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Why can't the Racing authorities here give us some decent class Flat racing at the weekend !!! :@ Just look across the water to Ireland who kicked-off their season with their Lincoln then followed up with the 1000 + 2000 Guineas trial's last Sunday and this week there's a bloody good card at The Curragh with a couple of Listed events and a Group 3 . What have we got ? One shitty Listed race for 3y-olds on the AW :wall Thats my Mr Angry out the way :loon Here's the stats i took from last seasons RFO Trends section for the National which got me an EW return on SLIM PICKENS [4th] GRAND NATIONAL ---------------- Stats are every where so i've taken the 10 steps from this weeks RFO and it's left us wth 1 horse. 10 steps are - 1- Although usually the weight limit is 11:00 and under , as has been pointed out elsewhere , there are no horses running from out of the Handicap again this year [ 10:06 lowest ] so consider those carrying 11:05 or less 2- Eliminate those who have not shown any winning form at 3m+ 3- Ignore those who have not ran for 50days [ i've taken out a few on 49] 4- Ignore those who have ran 3 times or under this season or over 6. 5- Rule out any French breds. 6- No headgear [ Earth Summit was the only one since the 70's to have them] 7- Must be aged between 8-12 8- No Novices 9- Eliminate all those who have fallen MORE than twice in their career. 10 - Official Rating must be between 136 - 147 Obviously the headgear one took a hit with Comply or Die winning last year but i'll stick with the rest of them and add in an odds limit of 33/1 and experince around the National fences That left me with CORNISH SETT + HIMALAYAN TRAIL I suggest an EW bet on both at the odds available with HIMALAYAN TRAIL having the bigger stake .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HIMALAYAN TRAIL falls at the 1st ...... how do i not like that :wall:wall:wall That concludes any further interest i have in the NH season :nana Sunday - THE CURRAGH 3.45 - Grp 3 Gladness Stakes - 7f - 4yo+ . 9/10 were in the top 5 in the betting 8/10 were 7f winners , other 2 had won at 8f . 8/10 had won at Listed/Group level 8/8 aged 4+ [ race was open to 3yos up to 2004] ran LTO no further back than OCTOBER. 7/8 with a rating were rated 105+ 6/8 with course experience had won at least once at The Curragh Top 5 in the Betfair market are - MAD ABOUT YOU JUMBAJUKIBA KARGALI GEORGEBERNARDSHAW DUFF All 5 are rated 105+ with winning form over the trip so no clues there . KARGALI is the first to be dismissed as he has not won or indeed been placed at Listed/Group level and last ran on the 30th August GEORGEBERNARDSHAW is next off the list as it last ran on 17th August and will need the heavens to open to give him the type of ground he needs to win on. DUFF is now a 6y-old and although not a negative stat he has only won at Listed level and it's hard to see him finding the improvement need to win at Group level now , esp with his last 2 Listed wins being on the AW. That leaves us with JUMBAJUKIBA who has won 5 times over the course inc 4 at Group 3 grade and 2 of those over 7f and the probable Fav , MAD ABOUT YOU who has been running at a higher grade than this for most of last season [ 3 x Group 1's , placed 2nd twice , and a Listed event LTO which was it's only win last year ] She made her seasonal debut here a couple of weeks ago when 3rd in a Group 3 on soft going which did not suit her 1st time out . The dryer ground will help her cause on Sunday . She was tried up to 12 f last season but being by Indian Ridge [ win ave 7.7f ] this trip will be more to her liking . 5 members of the female sex have contseted this in 10 runnings but only 2 have been returned in single figures and those 2 were 3y-olds . One won @ 11/2 while the other was an Even's Fav but was well beaten in the same race and was reported to be distressed after the race . MAD ABOUT YOU is the only Filly in the race which is not a negative imo and has been running at 2 grade's higher than this for most of last season. She will be fit , the stable has had a couple of winners in the past 14 days and every other stat fits her profile . JUMBAJUBIKA will not be far away .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MAD ABOUT YOU 1st @ 9/4f :loon Got the lead it wanted from JUMBAJUKIBA and took it up about 2f out , never really in any doubt . Time to keep the score on the preferred races BETS - 2 WINS - 1 Profit to 10pt win stake = +12.50pts Yield will be posted after 10 bets .

[stewartd14]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :clap:clap:clap Well done today jtw

[Cyclops]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well Done Sir! And thank you:dude

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers guys :ok and lets hope we can find another at Nottingham tomorrow NOTT- 3.30 - 1m6f LISTED STAKES - 4yo+ . -------------------------------------------------- This has been run 6 times previously so just enough runnings to catch the eye . The 2007 renewal was won by a 20/1 shot but was times at 9.35 secs above the ave on GOOD/FIRM going so that result has to be taken with a pinch of salt . Hopefully tomorrows jockeys will ensure a decent pace :hope 5/6 were in the top 4 in the betting 5/6 were Southern trained 5/6 were rated 92+ 5/6 had won at least twice [the '07 winner only had won win to it's name] 5/6 won over 12f , the other was btn a half length in a 12f race . 3 had won at Grp 3 /Listed level and the other 3 had finished under 6l behind the winner in Grp3/Listed company. Paddy Power have priced up the following as the top 4 in the market - FUILIN THE BETCHWORTH KID UNLEASHED HINDU KUSH First to have a line drawn through it is the D NICHOL'S [Northern ] trained HINDU KUSH. As well as being a Northern horse the yard have had 40 runners in the past 14 days with only 1 win to show for their efforts. THE BETCHWORTH KID , like the other remaining 3 is Southern trained and rated 103. 3 career wins , the best only being at Cl2 . Not a negative itself but it has run only once in Listed company and it finished 13l down the field . The stable is in good form but i think this one will lack the class to win this That leaves us with the Henry CECIL trained UNLEASHED , rated 106 and won twice with the best being a Cl4 but it finished only a length behind the winner of a Newmarket LISTED event . If fit and has progressed then it must hold a decent chance. However i'm going for FUILIN to win this . Coming from the Newmarket yard of M BOTTI [ 3 wins from 15 runners in the past fortnight ] it is rated 106 and has won twice , with best being a Cl 2 but was placed [ only btn under 2l ] in it's last 2 runs of last season which were a Listed and a Group 3 respectively . A winner over 14f, the distance should not be a problem while it has won on Good going [ forecast G/F ] and it's 2nd in the Listed Noel Murless Stakes was run on good going and was timed 3.17 secs faster than ave . ps = THE BETCHWORTH KID was 3rd btn 11l at level weights in that race.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1st - FUILIN @ 2/5f 6 Non-Runners , i assume it due to the ground , spoiled the race even if FUILIN did win at the restrictive odds of 2/5 fav . Selections - 3 Wins - 2 Profit to 10pt win stake = +16.50pts

[Lucky-15]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Great start JWT enjoy reading this as its somthing i'm interested in Trends and Flat racing keep it up!!!:ok

[fintron]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done Jtw, couple of recent winners :clap It was a shame about all of the non-runner in the listed race at Nottingham as Fiulin was 9/4 when Paddy's first put up their prices.

[cc75]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Great start JTW - looking forward to your flat fancies this year, always keep me in pocket money ;) Good luck mate :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers cc75 , where about in the Borders do you live ? Saturday ---------- And yet again the only racing at Listed or better level is on the AW :wall However theres no point in moaning again so here's a tentative selection for tomorrow . I say tentative as the race has only been run 5 times , the last 3 of which were run on the AW but the trends seem to be holding up . KEMPTON -2.40 - Listed Fillies Stakes - 8f ----------------------------------------------------- 5/5 were from the top 3 in the betting 5/5 had won at least once 5/5 ran in Listed/Group company LTO 4/5 were 4y-olds , other was 5y-old. Whilst only 1 previous winner had won at Listed level the other 4 had finished within 4l of the winner when running in Listed or Group company. I have taken the first 5 in the market from Bet 365's list . BORN TOBOUGGIE PERFECT STAR FESTOSO SCUFFLE DIXEY First to be discounted is DIXEY who has NEVER ran in Listed/Group company in it's career never mind last time out . Coupled with the fact that it rated at least 6lb's below the rest and her 2 wins were over 7f , well btn last of 13 in it's reappearance last season in a 8f Newmarket Handicap. BORN TOBOUGGIE ran in a Listed race on it's final appearance last season and finished 5th , btn under 4l . However it's only other run in this grade ended with a 25l beating at Yarmouth. 2 of her career wins came on G/S and Soft going whilst the other was on Good going but according to the RP review it was run 'at a muddling pace ' so i'm doubtful it has the class on this surface to win . PERFECT STAR is the only 5 y-old in the race and while 4/5 runnings ahve been won by a 4y-o the bigger picture shows that only 11 horses aged 5+ have ran and in each running at least one was placed and a 5yo won it last season. She has won at Listed grade but that was in HANDICAP company and LTO was a well btn 3rd [ 7l ] at Bath in a Listed race. First run on an AW surface. Again , i have a doubt that she has the class to beat the selection. SCUFFLE won a Cl 5 Maiden and two Cl3 Handicaps in the space of 3 months before finishing an 8l 10th of 16 in a Listed race at Redcar on her final appearance , but that was over 7f while her wins were all over the 8f. With only 5 career rauns under her belt there could still be a fair bit of improvement to come . The stable has had three 2nd's and two 3rd's all beaten under 2l so they are knocking hard at the door . FESTOSO carries the Nap tomorrow . Her one and only win so far was her debut in a Newmarket Maiden over 6f but her subsequent 6 outings after that were all between Listed and Group 1 grade . The best of these were a 2nd in the Cherry Hinton [grp 2] , 4th in the Lowther [grp 2] and 3rd in the Cheveley Park [grp 1] as a 2yold. She then wasn't seen for nearly 11 months when re-appearing in a Listed race at Doncaster where she finished 3rd btn 1l . Her final race of last season was in the Grp 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket where she finished 9th , 20l behind the winner . Harry Dunlop has had 2 wins from 7 runners in the past 14 days so the stable sems in good order and i think he's found the perfect opportunity for his charge to start a new season at a grade where she must have a winning chance , imo of course . One niggly worry is the fact that she has done most of her running over 6/7f but her breeding suggests the mile should suit . First time on the AW but :hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Disappointing run from the selection , esp after positive noises by the trainer but , as usual , the market told us our fortune with FESTOSO drifting from 9/2 out to 13/2 before the off :eyes was there with every chance coming into the straight but found nothing . BORN TOBOUGGIE won really well and with a winner and a 2nd from 3 runners this season the CECIL yard is certainly worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NEWMARKET - 4.10 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 11/12 finished in the first 4 last time out. 8/8 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 6 were 110+ ] 10/10 gad won at either 8f , 9f or both 9/10 were in the top 4 in the betting 8/10 were aged 4 or 5 yo 7/10 ran in at least Listed company LTO 6/10 had won at Listed/Group level Taking the top 5 in the betfair market gives us - TWICE OVER VIRTUAL TAZEEZ BARSHIBA BUSHMAN . BUSHMAN is rated 104 [ lowest of the 5] abd ran in Listed company LTO . However in finished only 7th in that ran and has only won at Cl 3 grade ; finished 2nd btn 3l in a Listed race. Also it's usually one of the top yards that take this prize and D SIMCOCK [ with respect] doesn't come into that frame. VIRTUAL is a virtual non-runner as the trainer states it will not run if the ground is unsuitable [ 4 wins - Soft x 2 , G/S and Good ] and with it currently G/F and no great rainfall on the horizon i doubt it will run. TAZEEZ has had no experience of a Listed race never mind a Group event . Surely it's a tall ask for a 5yo with only a couple of Cl 2 Handicaps to it's name to win this . TWICE OVER will have to have a severe off-day NOT to win this . Consistent at Grp 1 , 2 and 3 all last season it is without doubt the class act of the race . H CEIL'S yard is firing and has taken this 3 times in the past 12 seasons. A very worthy FAV . BARSHIBA is the only female in the race [ 5 have ran at odds of 12/1 or under and they have produced 1 win @ 7/1and two 2nd's @ 12/1 ] She has won at Listed grade and been btn only just under 4l in a Grp 1 and a 1l in a Grp 2 . DRC ELSWORTH has won this twice in the past 7 seasons She won a Listed race LTO and is rated 108. TWICE OVER should win this but with a couple of NR's on the cards it could pay to go Each-Way on BARSHIBA .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Very surpised that TWICE OVER was beaten and disappointed that BARSHIBA was unp :eyes SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.05 - 12f - Group 3 . ------------------------------------------------------- 13/13 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level . 12/13 started at 10/1 or UNDER 12/13 had already won over 12f 11/13 were making their seasonal debuts 11/13 were aged 4-6y old 9/9 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better . With the likely Fav , SPANISH MOON now a non-runner i'm looking at those which may start at around the 10/1 or under mark. According to Betfair that leaves us with 4 to consider - ROYAL AND REGAL TASTAHIL CENTENIAL SCINTILLO First to have doubts is TASTAHIL from B Hills yard , only rated 105 and has ran once this season [ winning as it did ] but has NEVER ran in a Group race in it's career . SCINTILLO has been active on the AW this season and quite successful too . A win in a Kempton Listed race followed by victory in the Winter Derby [Grp 3] shows him in good heart . However 3 runs in Group 2/3 grade over 12f shows a record of 5 , 3 , 4 . Decent enough on easy going , albeit 3 of his 4 wins have been on Standard x 2 , Good and /GS [over 7f] this one might find a couple better on the day esp if there is more rain. CENTENNIAL has Group 2 + 3 victories to his name and is top rated on 114 Making his sesonal debut here is another positive and the stable [GOSDEN] has been finding the winners . A winner over 12f [ Grp 2 ] and a preference for going on the soft side of good means theres not many boxes this one doesn't tick. It has proved that it can make the running and win if need be which could ell be the case tomorrow. Thought by Gosden to be good enough to tackle the St Leger at one stage he ran in France instead finishing 3rd , btn under 2l , in a Grp 2 at Longchamps ; followed by a 3rd over 15f [Grp 2] on the same track. ROYAL AND REGAL won this last year on Soft going so the more rain the better . Twice a Grp 3 winner [inc this] and a Listed race , it is 2nd top rated at 112 and is making it's seasonal debut here . Ran 5 times in Grp 2 company without success and it's best 2 runs in that grade were in a sub-standard Yorkshire Cup and a Sandown race which was run 20secs slower than the standard. SUMMARY - Although did us a favour at good odds last season i think he will find CENTENNIAL just a bit better than himself in this years renewal. The only thing that may affect that choice would be if the ground was changed to Soft over the whole of the track . Other than that i will stick with the selection. I see the going has changed to Soft on the track , however i've had another look at the form and decided to stick with CENTENNIAL .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends DONCASTER - 6.15 - 8f - Listed - 4yo+ ---------------------------------------------- 13/13 returned at 8/1 or Under 12/13 were Southern trained , excetion was M Johnston 12/13 were 4 or 5 y olds 11/13 were making their seasonal debuts 11/11 were rated 100+ 9/11 of the winners , when the race was run at Doncaster , had either won or been btn under 3l in Listed /Group company Apply the odds and age factors and we're left with 4 to consider. ATLANTIC SPORT KING OF DIXIE STAYING ON UNNEFER The RACING POST has KING of DIXIE down as Fav but the yard has only had 2 runners in the past fortnight which were well beaten. Best placed 2nd in a Grp 3 Newmarket race last season which was run 1.71 secs above standard on FIRM going is suspect imo. ATLANTIC SPORT has won at Listed level but CHANNON'S yard has only had 2 winners from 29 runners in the past 14 days . Although his breeding suggets he will stay the 8f , 2 of his wins have been over 7f [ other was 6f] and with 4 of his career races over the 7f i think he might just toil to get the final 1f here . UNNEFER has won at Listed grade but that was over 10f as has his last 5 outings + that race was run over 8secs slower than standard on Frim going !! Will 8f on G/F be a bit too quick for this one ? Henry Cecil has stated that he would prefer some give in the ground for UNNEFER , doubtful for Donny . Providing the ground isn't FIRM at Donny the the selection goes to the Swinburn trained STAYING ON who , like UNNEFER has been tried at 10/11f but has decent winning form at 8f. Too highly tried LTO in the Champion Stakes he nevertheles ran well when 8th , btn under 7l , in a Grp 3 at Newmarket but his best effort was when 2nd in the Hampton Stakes at Royal Ascot [10f] A hat-trick at Kempton last night proves the stable is in form so the selection is - STAYING ON

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends First things first , i didn't look at all at the meeting at NAAS today and was rather peeved to find out that INEXILE [ see CAMMIDGE Trophy ] had won @ 7/2 , part of a D NICHOLS hat-trick. Convinced that if i had studied the race i would have selected that one but shit happens ................:lol CENTENNIAL 2nd @ 5/1 :eyes Bit of a surprise with a 12/1 shot coming in :eek STAYING ON 1st @ 9/2 :loon A very well backed winner , opened at 7s . Will update the totals and any selections for tomorrow later :ok

[fintron]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done with Staying on mate, live up to his name :clap