JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HONOLULU 1st @ 7/4 Nice one LUTHER . Wonder how much O'BRIEN has won since Tuesday !!!!

[Luther]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Managed to get the 11/4 - less 10p in the £ Rule 4 - so small profit on the day. Yes - the Coolmore boys (and Jim Bolger) have cleaned up this week.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Ha d alook at this weeks racing and one of the drawbacks of Royal Ascot is the lack of Listed/Grp racing in the near future . The next Listed race's are not until Thursday and one of them is 3yo only and the other a 3y-o + . Not my preferred type of race i must admit but we''ll be having a look anyway . Back on Weds evening.

[MidasTouch]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Hi All I am off to NEWCASTLE races tomorrow for a training session in the morning and then an afternoon of Racing! Ha-Ha Would really appreciate any help in picking out any potential winners or nice juicy placers as I don't want to look like I know nothing do I? Ha-Ha Hope some of the sages on here can steer me in the right direction, not sure I will get to a PC tomorrow so any help today would be gratefully appreciated? Thanking you in anticipation :ok MidasTouch

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :hope Midastouch . 4.30 Newcastle Listed 10f Fillies+ Mares Gd ----------------------------------------------- 9/9 were returned at 11/2 or under [ all in the top 3 in the betting ]. 9/9 were Southern trained , 6 from Newmarket. 9/9 were rated 94+ with all 9 being in the top 4 rated horses in that race and 8 being either of the top 2 rated. 9/9 had ran in at least LISTED company LTO. 9/9 had won at least one race previously. 8/9 had won or been placed in Listed company at least once in their career. 4x 3y o's from 31 runners have won. 4x 4y o's from 36 runners have won. 1x 5yo+ from 4 runners have won. Using the very early price's from betfair give's us an indication of what looks like being 11/2 or under. All these 5 are Southern trained with only Under The Rainbow not from Newmarket. GHAIDAA [3yo] M Jarvis , is amonst the Favs but has not won above Cl 5 LTO,[ only had 2 runs ] and is rated only 91. JAMBORETTA [4yo] M Stoute , is rated 96 , has won at Cl 2 grade and was 7th only btn two and three quarters in a Grp 3 LTO. UNDER THE RAINBOW [5yo] B Hills , is top rated on 104 and has won at Listed class while has also been 2nd in a Grp 2 + 3 . Ran in a Listed H'cap LTO. SELL OUT [4yo] , G Wragg , is rated 100 and ran in a Grp 3 LTO . It has won at Cl4+5 level and was 2nd + 4th [ btn 1l] in Listed company. PENTATONIC [5yo] L Cumani , is rated 97 and ran in a Listed event LTO . Won at Cl 4 + 5 level and has been 4th in a Listed and 5th in a Grp 3 . As i have said previously these 3yo+ races are not my favourite as some of these youngsters could still be improving but i'll persevere while keeping an eye on results from these. SUMMARY - I can't consider GHAIDAA , despite the fact she may start in the top 3 in the betting. Only 2 runs and 1 win at in a Class 5 and rated only 91 puts me off . But is she one of these improvers ?? The same goes for SELL OUT and PENTATONIC with respect to the grade of races won [ Cl 4+ 5 ] fror both. Another negative for SELL OUT is the poor record of the stable this season , only 1 4yo+ winner from 31 runners and with only 5 runners in the past 14 days [ 4 of which finished last , the other was a decent 2nd at Royal Ascot ] cast's further doubt. The drop back to 10f may help PENTATONIC but it has been beaten 5l on both venture's into Listed/Grp racing and both wins were on G/F so it might near it a little Firmer tomorrow. JAMBORETTA is rated 96 [ 4th best] and has only a Class 2 win to her name . She ran LTO in a Grp 3 at the Derby meeting where she finished a close 7th . Has done most of her racing at 8-9f but should get the extra 1f [ 2nd btn under 1l in her 1 run at 10f ] Relatively lightly raced for a 4yo [ 10th outing here] it has been continualy rising in the BHA ratings since it's 2nd Handicap outing [ 78 in Class 4 up to 93 LTO ] UNDER THE RAINBOWis the only one of the these 5 to have won at Listed level , albeit back in Oct '05 .Top rated at 104 and also has those two 2nd places in Grp's 2 + 3 to her name. She has the beating of PENTATONIC after finishing nealy 4l in front of that one at Haydock off level weights but that was over 12f and thats where this one's weakness could lie as the vast majority of it's races have been at 12f or over . It did win at 10f but that was that race in Oct'05. Tried in blinkers LTO at R Ascot but finished last and i belive they have been removed . That indicates to me that there getting frustrated with this one so i'm going for JAMBORETTA to show that it's run LTO in Grp company is good enough to take this .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends A 40/1 shot wins the race and with a 10/1 2nd and 20/1 3rd , we were certainly blown out of the water there :unsure Nothing until Saturday and i'm definately going to take a stronger stance on these 3yo+ races after that result and the past 2 or 3 of these events.

[MidasTouch]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends No Probs jtw1 Jamboretta was all the rage in the morning on the course but later all the money came for Ghaidaa but that bombed out also. Only backed 2 winners all day and that was only cos I dutched 2 or 3 horses in every race. Most races were won by unfancied horses and ended the day about 70% down? Tsk! Tsk!! MidasTouch

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Hopefully back on winning trail with either of these 2 for Saturday . NEWMARKET 3.00 Listed 4yo+ 12f G/F ------------------------------------------- 9/10 were returned at 13/2 or under 9/10 were 4 or 5y olds 10/10 had winning form at 10/12f 10/10 were rated 99+ 9/10 had ran that season and 8 had been placed in at least one of those races. 8/10 ran at Listed or Group class LTO ,other 2 were Cl 2 level. 7/10 had won/been placed in a Listed or Group race Only 6 declared for this one and with CLASSIC PUNCH and GROUP CAPTAIN well in double figures beting wise i'm going to concentrate on the remaining 4 . LION SANDS [4yo] has won a Listed race at Newmarket [14f] . Also won over the 12f and is rated 110 . Ran twice this season finishing 5th+4th and LTO was a Listed race. TRANQUIL TIGER [4yo] has won 5 times and 3 of those were Listed and 2 were at Newmarket. Rated 116 and has ran 4 times this season , winning twice inc last time in Listed race. EASTERN ANTHEM [4yo] has won 1 race [8f] and been a close 2nd in 2 Listed events [11 + 12f]. Rated 109 and ran in a Listed race LTO . Only won at 8f but highlighted earlier it has been placed 2nd over 11+ 12f . RED GALA [5yo] has won at Cl 2 level but been unp at Listed /Group level .Rated 107 , it has won 3 times [ once at 12f ]and ran in a Listed race LTO. SUMMARY - RED GALA is the first to be rejected as it's best win at Class 2 and non-placing in Listed/Group company means it may lack a bit of class for this grade especially being a 5yo. I'm going to have to delay giving a selection between the remaining 3 as EASTERN ANTHEM may not run due to the ground conditions . Once that decision is made tomorrow i'll post the selection . NEWMARKET 3.35 7f Grp 3 3yo+ ----------------------------------- Winners have ranged from 2 Favs p to 2 16/1's and all prices in between. 10/10 had won at LISTED/GROUP level. 10/10 had won at least twice previously. 10/10 were Southern trained [ 7 Newmarket ] 10/10 had ran previously ran that season with 9 being placed 1st-4th at least once. 9/10 had won / been placed or beaten 2l or under in a Group race. 9/10 had won over 7f [ 7 more than once ] 9/9 were rated 107+. 8/10 ran at Listed /Group level LTO [other 2 were Cl 2 ] 7/10 were 4 or 5 y olds. Thankfully there's no 3yo in the race and with VORTEX looking like starting around the 25/1 mark thats leaves the other 5 runners to consider. APPALACIAN TRAIL [7yo] comes down from Scotland and has won 9 times with 3 Listed events amongst them. A winner at 7f five times and rated 112. It has been placed 2nd twice in 2 Grp 3's ,inc LTO , but never won in Group company. KING OF DIXIE [4yo] has 3 career wins to it's name but only at Class 3 at best .Rated 109 and has never ran in anything above Class 2 [3rd] . Three times a distance winner and Southern trained but not , with respect to WJ KNIGHT, not by the usual Grade of trainer that wins this. BLYTHE KNIGHT [8yo] is another Northern Trained horse that has won a couple of Grp 3's inc LTO. It has 9 wins to it's name but importantly none was over the 7f of todays race. Rated 110 but only won once on G/F going which was a Class 3 three runner race . ARMY OF ANGELS [6yo] is Southern trained [ Godolphin ] and has won 4 times inc 1 Listed race . Rated 109 , this will be it's seasonal debut and has won once over 7f. Has been placed 1st or 2nd in 9 of it's 11 runs but never won on it's seasonal debut in 3 attempts and has not tackled Group company before this race. Would appear to prefer 8f judging by it's placement in the past . RACER FOREVER [5yo] is trained at Newmarket by J GOSDEN and has won 3 times , one of which was a Listed event. It has been btn a max of three lengths in two Grp 3's and a Grp 2 . Ran in a Cl 2 LTO at Royal Ascot where it was 11th btn only six and a quarter lengths . 2 of it's career wins were over 7f but is only rated 104 in the BHA ratings. SUMMARY - KING OF DIXIE fails on Grade of career wins and Trainer . BLYTHE KNIGHT should find this 7f too sharp for it , esp on G/F going . ARMY OF ANGELS may also find the 7f too sharp , esp on it's debut after 385 days off the track , as well as being a doubtful runner as the trainer has stated it will not run unless the ground is suitable. APPALACHIAN TRAIL has a great chance after it's close 2nd LTO in a Grp 3 at HAYDOCK but it still has not won at GROUP level and being 7 yo it will find it harder to do so . [ btw i still hold the opinion the L PERRATT couldn't train ivy and the improvement in the stables form is purely down to I SEMPLE being installed as No 2 ; or No 1 ?? who knows ] RACER FOREVER [5yo] is trained by the grade of trainer that has won this in the past as well as being a LISTED winner and having placed form at Grp 2+3 . LTO ran a very creditable race in a 28 runner competitive Handicap at Royal Ascot and with the 7f over G/F not forseen as being a problem and J FORTUNE on board [ 7 placings from 15 mounts but only 2 in last 6 which inc a 2nd , btn a half length and that 6th at RA ] i beleive that around 10/1 is good value in this event.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Hopefully back on winning trail with either of these 2 for Saturday . NEWMARKET 3.00 Listed 4yo+ 12f G/F ------------------------------------------- 9/10 were returned at 13/2 or under 9/10 were 4 or 5y olds 10/10 had winning form at 10/12f 10/10 were rated 99+ 9/10 had ran that season and 8 had been placed in at least one of those races. 8/10 ran at Listed or Group class LTO ,other 2 were Cl 2 level. 7/10 had won/been placed in a Listed or Group race Only 6 declared for this one and with CLASSIC PUNCH and GROUP CAPTAIN well in double figures beting wise i'm going to concentrate on the remaining 4 . LION SANDS [4yo] has won a Listed race at Newmarket [14f] . Also won over the 12f and is rated 110 . Ran twice this season finishing 5th+4th and LTO was a Listed race. TRANQUIL TIGER [4yo] has won 5 times and 3 of those were Listed and 2 were at Newmarket. Rated 116 and has ran 5 times this season , winning twice inc last time in Listed race. EASTERN ANTHEM [4yo] has won 1 race [8f] and been a close 2nd in 2 Listed events [11 + 12f]. Rated 109 and ran in a Listed race LTO . Only won at 8f but highlighted earlier it has been placed 2nd over 11+ 12f . RED GALA [5yo] has won at Cl 2 level but been unp at Listed /Group level .Rated 107 , it has won 3 times [ once at 12f ]and ran in a Listed race LTO. SUMMARY - RED GALA is the first to be rejected as it's best win at Class 2 and non-placing in Listed/Group company means it may lack a bit of class for this grade especially being a 5yo. I'm going to have to delay giving a selection between the remaining 3 as EASTERN ANTHEM may not run due to the ground conditions . Once that decision is made tomorrow i'll post the selection .

And indeed EASTERN ANTHEM + ARMY OF ANGELS in the 3.35 are NR's So that leaves us with 2 to consider - TRANQUIL TIGER [4yo] from H CECILS yard who has those 3 Listed wins to it's name and certainly likes the course.He should take the lead and make the running here and it's hard to see him being pulled back. Top rated on 116 i can't see LION SANDS being able to catch this one as it would prefer a longer distance , has beaten the selection over 14f and has an entry for the Irish Leger over that distance . Odds-on Fav i'm afraid .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RACER FOREVER 1st @ 6/1 :loon Great ride from FORTUNE TRANQUIL TIGER 2nd @ 8/11f :eyes Didn't take the lead as i expected but looked the winner when brought through 1f out , caught right on the line when he decided he'd had enough !!!

[ls1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Fantastic...well done jtw1

[cameo4]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends another good call jtw. dave

[Luther]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Excellent stuff JTW1 - 9/1 taken. My 1st winner following your thread and I would never had looked at the race/horse otherwise. That's the spending money for the trip to Windsor tomorrow. Take a look at the card for me mate..;) Thanks, Luther

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done mate :clap Can't help you for tomorrow mate as there ain't no Listed/Group races there so your best bet is to keep an eye out on the Daily thread for Windsor tomorrow if you have time . I'm afraid my brain fries itself after 2 mins of trying suss out a Handicap race and theres 4 of them tomorrow :eek Good luck and have a great day , been to Windsor a couple of times . Start off in the Weatherspoons , then a wee drink on the boat and into the track where things rapidly go downhill :loon:loon

[billy the punter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice winner mate, normal service resumed ;)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CURRAGH 4.35 Listed 8f 3yo+ --------------------------------- This race was downgraded in '01 when it was a Grp 2 race over 9f. 7/7 were returned at 5/1 or under 4 x 4yo from 18 runners 1 x 3yo from 25 runners 1 x 5yo+ from 18 runners 7/7 had won over 8f 7/7 had ran that season with 6 finishing either 1st or 2nd in at least one of those outings 6/7 had a BHA rating , of which 5 were 107+. 6/7 had winning/placed form in Listed/Group company. 5/7 ran in Listed/Group company LTO. I'm not going to make a decision until i get a better idea of how the bettings going to go and what the weather will bring on Sunday. So see you tomorrow.

[Luther]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends "Can't help you for tomorrow mate as there ain't no Listed/Group races there so your best bet is to keep an eye out on the Daily thread for Windsor tomorrow if you have time . I'm afraid my brain fries itself after 2 mins of trying suss out a Handicap race and theres 4 of them tomorrow :eek Good luck and have a great day , been to Windsor a couple of times . Start off in the Weatherspoons , then a wee drink on the boat and into the track where things rapidly go downhill :loon:loon" Yes - not a hugely inspiring card but I like the fact they have put the Maiden at the end as in the old 'Pat Eddery (send-them-home-with-a- winning-favourite) Monday Evening days'.. I have lumped most of yesterday's winnings on FRENCH RIVIERA at 1.92 last night. Also have a decent bet on HEAVEN. Obvious choices but it saves too much study. I know the Wetherspoons well but unfortunately this a family outing, couple of car loads, kids, picnic and just a few beers (should tee me up nicely for the Football). Good luck with the Curragh selection.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

CURRAGH 4.35 Listed 8f 3yo+ --------------------------------- This race was downgraded in '01 when it was a Grp 2 race over 9f. 7/7 were returned at 5/1 or under 4 x 4yo from 18 runners 1 x 3yo from 25 runners 1 x 5yo+ from 18 runners 7/7 had won over 8f 7/7 had ran that season with 6 finishing either 1st or 2nd in at least one of those outings 6/7 had a BHA rating , of which 5 were 107+. 6/7 had winning/placed form in Listed/Group company. 5/7 ran in Listed/Group company LTO. I'm not going to make a decision until i get a better idea of how the bettings going to go and what the weather will bring on Sunday. So see you tomorrow.

Right , I have got a better idea of how the betting looks so there's 4 to consider here - JUMBAJUKIBA [5yo] has won 2 Grp 3's and a Listed race . Rated 114 and has won 3 times over the mile . 4th in a Listed race LTO over which was probably too far in Distance [9f] it's previous 4 runs before that were at Grp 3 level inc a win in the Gladness Stakes at the Curragh . The last 2 winners had competed in that race. Has won on going ranging from Firm to Heavy so todays Yielding shouldn't be a problem. LISVALE [3yo] has won a Listed and been placed 2nd in a couple of Grp 2's. Rated 106 and ran in a Listed race LTO . Never won over 8f and it's last couple of runs were over 10f so drops back today . Won twice on Soft going . ONE GREAT CAT [3yo] from the O'Brien yard [ one of 3 from there running in this] has not won at this level but has 2 third place's in Grp 2 and a 2nd in a Listed event to it's name . Rated 103 and has won on Heavy as a 2yo but would probably prefer it on the Firmer side of Good imo .Btn into last of 7 on it's other run on Heavy.Ran at Listed class LTO where it finished three and a half lengths in front of JUMBAJUKIBA over 9f on Good going receiving 14lb's . SUMMIT SURGE [4yo] has won a Grp 3 race and is rated 109 . Winner over 8f and ran in a Grp 3 LTO ,winning that race but this one would appear to prefer Firmer going than it will get today. 3 of it's 4 wins have been over 7f on Gd-G/F going and that may be it's optimum conditions imo. SUMMARY - SUMMIT SURGE would like it a bit firmer underfoot and maybe a furlong shorter imo so it's passed over. ONE GREAT CAT will be winning races at this level at some time in it's career i've no doubt but hopefully not today as it's low rating and probable preference for a sounder surface means i'm giving it a miss . LISVALE has won at Listed level but never won past the 7f mark , is taking a drop back down in trip today and the ground should suit . However the main doubt about these 2 is the fact they are 3yo's and with only 1 winner coming from that vintage in 7 seasons while providing 25 of the 61 runners i'm hoping that the poor run continue's. JUMBAJUKIBA gets the vote here and i know that being a 5yo should be a negative but with the sole 4yo we considered being better on a sound surface i'm taking a chance on this one upsetting that stat. Was beaten LTO fairly and squarely by ONE GREAT CAT but that was over 1f further and on going that would have suited the 3yo better . 2 Grp 3 wins ,top rating , a liking for the ground and 3 course wins [ 2 at 8f] means that this one will take all the beating .:hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends JUMBAJUKIBA 2ND @ 4/1 JT FAV Tried to steal the race from the start but pegged back by 'another progressive 3yo ' in LISVALE :eyes

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BETS - 58 WINS - 21 Staked to a 10pt level stake - 580pts Returned - +860.83pts [ not inc returned stakes ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thought we might have had a runner in the Grp 3 at Loepardstown on Wednesday but on inspection what is now a Grp 3 over 7f was upgraded from a 8f Listed event back in 2003 . So with only 5 previous races i'll give it a swerve . Looks a bit tricky anyway imo :\

[Marco29]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends great bets, jtw1 :)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 4.00 Listed 10f G/F ---------------------------------- 6 runnings means it just qualifies for consideration. 6/6 had won/been placed in a Group race. 6/6 were returned at 8/1 or under. 5/6 had ran that season. 5/6 ran in Grp /Listed class LTO. 5/5 that had a rating were rated 95+. 3yo x 5 wins 4yo+ x 1 win . Now as there are no 3yo's running tomorrow i had a look at which age group finished in the best position behind the younger winners/2nd placed and 4/5 were 4yo's , with the other being a 5yo. STAGE GIFT [5yo] has no less than 5 wins over the 10f of this event and has won at Grp2 and Grp 3[ 2 wins] . Rated 115 and ran in Grp 2 class LTO , however that was back in Oct of last year . BUSHMAN [4yo] has won over 10f and is rated 105 but has only won a Class 3 Handicap [ albeit very easily] LTO on soft going at Sandown [8f] . It's 10f win was in a slowish run race [1.71 over the ave ] in a Class 5 Windsor Handicap. Has only ran 3 times ,all this season and won 2. MANY VOLUMES [4yo] a duel 10f winner and rated 109. Has only won at Cl 3 level , was placed 2nd in a Listed event but that was a Handicap.Has ran 4 times this season and has been 2nd on 3 occasions . Only 2 wins from 14 runs career-wise. Well beaten when contesting a Grp3 and Listed Stakes races. SPANISH MOON [4yo] has won at 12f +7f but the sires winning ave is 10.4f so that should not inconvinience this one too much. Rated 108 it has won at Listed level and ran in Grp 2 company LTO. SUMMARY - MANY VOLUMES and BUSHMAN would appear to lack the necessary class to win this race for the reasons stated in each comment for those two. There's no doubt that the horse with the best form lines is the GODOLPHIN trained STAGE GIFT . This one has Grp 1 entries in the King George and Queen Elizabeth and the Juddmonte Stakes and the stable seems to be hitting form with 6 winners in the last 14 days . However this is it's seasonal debut and with a Grp 1 campaign ahead i have to consider whether it will be given a hard ride here . That leaves the door open ,imo, for SPANISH MOON to get it's 2nd win of the season. After a disappointing run LTO in the HARDWICKE at RA when it got very warm at the start and took a fair bit of effort from the stalls handlers to go into the stalls and then ran far too quickly for it's own good to fade in the straight. I am thinking that the type of day it was with the crowds and atmosphere of what was the busiest day of the Royal meeting got to this one time Derby Fav. With a Listed win and a decent rating to it's name i think this could upset the Fav :hope p.s a slight concern is that MANY VOLUMES carries the 1st colours of K ABDULLAH but after the Irish Derby and other races is that a so much of a Negative ????

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nothing better than spending a couple of hours studying only for the horse selected to lose a shoe at the start and be withdrawn !! SANDOWN 3.2 ECLIPSE STAKES 10f Grp 1 G/F ------------------------------------------------- 9/10 were returned at 12/1 or under , basically the top 5 in the betting. 9/10 had won a Grp 1 race 9/10 had won at least 3 races 8/9 with a rating were rated 115+ 8/10 had won that season , with the other 2 being placed 2nd in at least 1 run. 8/10 ran in Grp company LTO , other 2 ran in Grp 2 races. 6/10 ran at Royal Ascot LTO , 2 each from the QUEEN ANNE , PRINCE of WALES and St JAME'S PALACE. A OBRIEN - 3 STOUTE - 2 GODOLPHIN - 2 MAARAHEL , STOTSFOLD and ROB ROY look out of their depth as the odds for them show and i doubt whether LITERATO will get the rain it needs to run. So that leaves us with 5 to consider - MOUNT NELSON [4yo] is the one of only 2 Grp 1 winner's in the field [LITERATO the other] but is rated only 110 and has not been placed 1st or 2nd in any of it's 3 runs this season. Was 5th in the QUEEN ANNE at RA and represents the A O'BRIEN yard . PHOENIX TOWER [4yo] has one victory at Grp level [Grp 3] but has been a close 2nd in 2 Grp 1's this season . Rated 116 and was 2nd LTO in the PRINCE of WALES syakes at RA LTO. Although no winners from the yard in recent years Mr CECIL has a fair record in the past. PIPEDREAMER [4yo] has only won at Cl2 level but has a 3rd in both Grp 1 + 3 company.. Rated 110 and has ran three times this season , finishing 3rd in all 3 . The PRINCE of WALES was it's last run . MULTIDIMENTIONAL [5yo] has won and been placed in Grp 2 company and is rated at 105.Was 2nd LTO in the HARDWICKE Stakes at RA. CAMPANOLOGIST [3yo] is the only representative of the younger generation this season and has a Grp 2 win to it's name .Rated 107 and has ran 4 times this season ,winning 3 inc LTO in the King Edward Stakes at RA. SUMMARY - I cant consider PIPEDREAMER with only a best win at Class 2 grade , albeit a couple of decent placings in Grp1 + 3 races. It was caught by PHOENIX TOWER LTO in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot [was also btn by that horse this season at Newmarket in the EARL of SEFTON Stakes [Grp 3] CAMPANOLOGIST + MULTIDIMENTIONAL have both won at Grp 2 level but are rated well below winners ave for this race , 107 + 105 respectively. Although both ran at Royal Ascot LTO ,both races were over 12f , so both take a drop back in trip . MOUNT NELSON comes from the O'BRIEN yard and it's hard to ignore this one's chance's after the stables form over the past fortnight. However i'm going to put forward a couple of reasons why i'm going to do just that. It's Grp 1 win at St Cloud was on G/S going and it certainly won't get that tomorrow . Also in the 4 Grp 1/3 races it has competed in since that win it has been well beaten in all 4 ,inc 2 at 10f. I has also not been placed 1st or 2nd this season . PHOENIX TOWER could be a very popular winner for HENRY CECIL and after MANY VOLUMES picking up the Listed race at Sandown earlier today the signs are looking good. This will be only it's 7th racecourse appearance and with renewal of the ECLIPSE looking like the poorest quality wise for a few years and the doubts i have raised about MOUNT NELSON , the possible chance that it could still have room for improvment gets it the vote. 2nd in the Prince of Wales LTO when outrun by a true Grp 1 horse in Duke Of Marmalade and previous to that only beaten a whisker by the unfortunate CREACHADOIR inthe Lockinge show that he is no mug . The only one of these 5 to be rated over the past minimum of 115 [ 116 for this] and no problems with the ground and , hopefully,the 10f i hope this is the one to halt the O'BRIEN steamroller.:hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 2.10 5f Grp 3 G/F ------------------------------- 10/10 were rated 102+ 10/10 had ran a minimum of 4 races that season 9/10 ran at LISTED/GROUP class LTO 9/10 were returned at 8/1 or under 4/4 where there was double figure runners , that race was won by a horse drawn 8+ 3 x 3yo 3 x 4yo 4 x 6yo From 13 3yo runners that started 8/1 or under there have been 3 winners and 3 x 2nd places . 4 look like starting at 8/1 or under - HOH MIKE [4yo] won this last year and has a decent chance of the double .Rated 112 with a Grp 3 [ this race] to it's name and 2 Listed succeses in it's career.Has ran 3 times this season and LTO was a Grp 1 event. Has had 4 wins from 5 at 5f ANCIEN REGIME [3yo] has only won at best a Cl2 race and rated 105. Has had 3 runs this season and interestingly it's sires winning ave is 8.5f and it'as 2 career wins have been at 6f. MOORHOUSE LAD [5yo] has won a Grp 3 event and is rated 110 . Has only had 1 outing this season which was a Grp 1 race [ Kings Stand Stakes ] at Royal Ascot . All 5 career wins have been at 5f , 2 at G/F , 2 at Gd and 1 on the AW. WI DUD [4yo] has a Grp 2 victory in it's CV . Rated 106 it has ran 3 times this season and was unplaced in a Group 2 at York LTO. Has won twice at 5f on GD - G/F going. SUMMMARY - ANCIEN REGIME would appear imo to prefer another furlong to contend with and therefore i'm bypassing it's chance's. MOORHOUSE LAD has only had one outing this season and being drawn 6 of 12 on G/F not too great so it's off the list. WI DUD will be there at the HOH MIKE death but might just find 1 too good. 5f on G/F will hold no problems and a nice draw of 12 will be to it's advantage.. But it may struggle as it has in the past to the challenge of last years winner HOH MIKE . Ground/Distance will be no problem . It has ran at Grp 1 [ 3times] , Grp 2 [once] and one disappointing run at Listed level since winning this last season . Drawn nicely in stall 9 and with J SPENCER on board [ 5 wins and 3 places from 15 rides ] it's hard to see this one finishing out of the first 2.:hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HOH MIKE 3rd @ 13/8F PHOENIX TOWER 2nd @ 5/2F Disappointing day with Phoenix Tower being well backed from 4 's [ which i took ] down to 5/2 fav and getting nabbed on the line by MOUNT NELSON :@ to keep the record of Grp1 winners going strong. ANCIEN REGIME came good for the fancied 3yo record in winning the 1st.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Newmarket 3.10 Group 2 3yo+ 12f Soft ------------------------------------------------ 9/10 were returned at 12/1 or under , only 1 Fav. 9/10 had won at Listed/Group level , 8 at Group level. 8/10 were 12f winners 8/10 had ran that season . 8/10 had ran at Group level LTO. 8/9 with a BHA rating were rated 111+ 5 of the last 6 had ran at Royal Ascot. 0/10 were mares Sir M Stoute has had 3 winners in 10 seasons. Concentrating on the first 5 in the betting gives us - ANNA PAVLOVA who won the Lancashire Oaks at rain-sodden Haydock on Saturday and this is her type of ground with 6 wins on ground officially described as Soft/Heavy. Rated 112 and has 2 Group 2 wins and 4 Listed wins to her name. As i say she won at Grp 2 level LTO , but there are a few negatives imo 1 - she looks like starting Fav 2 - She is a MARE 3- has she peaked too quick and had the edge taken off her by Saturdays victory , although she has won back to back twice previously 4- This is usually won by one of the top Southern yards or M Johnston [3] PAPAL BULL won this last year but in very different conditions , GOOD/FIRM that day , on which he has won 5 of his 6 races [ other was Good] Rated 121 and has won 2 Grp 2's and 2 Grp 3's . Ran 4th in the Grp 1 Coronation Cup LTO , which then seen the 2nd [ Youmzain ] AND 3RD [Mcarthur ] go on to win at Group 1 + 2 grade NTO. Could be STOUTE'S only representative after his 2 other decs being declared doubtful. SAGARA has only 1 win to it's name but has been placed in the ARC [ btn under 2l in that Grp 1 ] and has twice been btn under 2l in a couple of Grp 2's [ inc when btn into 2nd by Soldier Of Fortune] Rated 122 it has ran twice this season without troubling the judge and LTO was the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup. Has won only at 11f but the extra furlong shouldn't be a worry. That one win was on Soft LION SANDS won a Listed event LTO but that has been the highest grade he has won at . Has been placed 3rd narrowly btn 5th in Grp 3's and is rated lowest of the 5 at 110. Has won on GD + Firm ground. LUCARNO carries a 5lb pen for it's ST LEGER win and is rated 115 for this. Also won at Group 2 grade and ran LTO in that Group 1 race in France won by Youmzain. Has not won on ground worse than Good [ 2 of 4 on G/F , 1 on AW] SUMMARY --------- LION SANDS would be a surprise winner for me as it would appear to be outclassed on ground it probably will not appreciate. PAPAL BULL - it hard to discount anything that M Stoute runs in this but even though the rain looks like halting and drying conditions settling in i would be suprised it it dried up enough for this quirky customer. LUCARNO is another of those who would have liked the rain to have stayed away . The only Grp 1 winner in the field means he carries 5lb more than the rest so that won't help the cause. SAGARA has ran twice in the UK after Godolphin purchased him from Frannce after it's 3rd in the Arc behind Dylan Thomas . Even allowing for the stables slow start and acclimatisation it was a disapointing debut when last of 10 in a Listed race at Goodwood . Showed improvement LTO in the Gold Cup behind Yeats so improvement over todays 12f still looks on the cards . Impotantly DETTORI takes over here from McEVOY for the 1st time so should we take the hint , esp as it has winning form on a softish surface. and Grp placed form on G/S. ANNA PAVLOVA is a prolific winning mare with 10 career victories , inc 2 x Grp 2's , and loves the ground as soft as it can get , however the trainer has declared that she will only run if there is sufficient rain , which i presume means that any drying out will be to her disadvantage and she could well be withdrawn. So with that in mind and the reason's stated in it's commentary i'm passing it in favour of SAGARA who should start repaying some of the purchase price. I'm taking the hint with the Jockey change and it's French form starting to come through.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SAGARA 5th of 6th , was fancied due to the most part of getting the nod from Pricewise , but when the question was asked there was nothing there. Lucarno led Start to finish and again a previous Grp 1 winner takes the spoils . I have to wonder why in a race where i found 9/10 previous winners had won at least a Listed race and i went for the only one of the named 5 NOT to have done so :wall Think i am getting a bit too confidant and allowing my poor judgement to cloud the facts.:spank FRIDAY 3.10 Newmarket July Cup Grp 1 6f. ------------------------------------------------- 9/10 were returned at 14/1 or under. 9/10 had won at 6f , 8 more than once. 9/10 had won at Listed /Group level , 8 won at Grp 1/2/3 grade. 9/9 with a BHA rating were rated 107+ 10/10 had ran that season with 9 being placed 1,2 or 3 at least once. 9/10 ran at ListedGrp level LTO , 8 at Grp level at Royal Ascot . 3yo x 4 4yo x 2 5yo+ x 2 DRAW - There have been 7 races where there was 16 runners [ No of entries in this years race] and the winners have been drawn - 16 ,10 , 18 , 11 , 19 , 6 , 18. One race had 15 enries and the winner came from 15. There are 6 runners that look like starting under to 14/1 limit - MARCHAND D'OR [5yo] Not rated by BHA . Won 7 times but none over 6f [ 6 at 6 and half furlongs ] Has won 2 Grp 1's , a Grp 2 and 2 Grp 3's. Ran 6th in the JUBILEE Stakes at Royal Ascot LTO Drawn 9 KINGSGATE NATIVE [3yo] Rated 118 Won 2 Grp 1's Won one 6f race [ 2 career wins] Won the JUBILEE at Royal Ascot LTO. Drawn 15 SIR GERRY [3yo] Rated 112 Won Grp 2 and a Listed event Won three 6f races [ 3 career wins ] 3rd in the JUBILEE LTO Drawn 14 WAR ARTIST [5yo] Rated 116 Won one Grp 1 Won three 6f races [ 4 career wins] 2nd in the JUBILEE Drawn 7 U.S.RANGER [4yo] Rated 114 Won two Listed events. Won one 6f race [ 5 career wins] 5th in the JUBILEE Drawn 12 UTMOST RESPECT [4yo] Rated 105 Won one Grp 3 Won four 6f races [ 5 career wins ] Ran Grp 3 LTO , not at Royal Ascot Drawn 10. First and easiest to dispense with is UTMOST RESPECT who is only rated 105 , has won only at Group 3 grade and did not run at Royal Ascot LTO. The draw helps us get rid of the chance of WAR ARTIST , only once has a race with 16+ runners produced a winner from a single figure stall. U.S RANGER is the next to dicount , albeit he hails from the A O'BRIEN yard , this 4yo has only won two LISTED events and would probably prefer a furlong or 2 further with 3 wins over 8f and 1 over 7f. SIR GERRY was beaten fair and square in the JUBILEE when 3rd at level weights behind KINGSGATE NATIVE [both had favouable draws ] and i can see no reason why it should turn the tables here. MARCHAND D'oR commands respect with it's 5 Group wins , inc 2 at Grp 1 grade . However there's a couple of things that worry me , first is the drying ground at Newmarket and they forecast Good going for tomorrow. This French trained animal has won 4 times on SOFT and once on G/S [ 2 wins were on Gd. But a more interesting fact is that it has not won at 6f , one win at 5f , Four at 7f and two at Deauville over an official 6 1/2f . I think that up against true 6f racers it could just run out of time before the line comes [ thats the theory ] KINGSGATE NATIVE won the JUBILEE stakes at Royal Ascot by just under 2l very impressively. But that aside it's last 4 races have all been at Group 1 level of which it has won 2 , been 2nd [ btn 2l in Prix A'bbaye ] and came 10 [only btn under 5l from a bad draw in this season's Kings Stand Stakes . Basically it has the Class , Draw and age advantage* to take this Group 1 It's 2 wins were on Good going and although it has only won at 6f [LTO] the way it won would suggest there's no problem there. There have been 17 3yo's who were 14/1 or under and drawn half way or above and these are the places acheived - 1st , 2nd 4th unp 1st , 3rd 4th 1st 2nd , 4th 3rd , 5th , unp , unp , unp [won by 3yo drawn 6 however ] 2nd , unp.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends KINGSGATE NATIVE 5th @ 6/1 :eyes , MARCHAND D'OR wins @ 5/2f CURRAGH 4.00 Group 3 7f Yielding 3yo+ --------------------------------------------- Although it has been a Grp 3 race for 10 seasons it was run over 8f from '98 to 2000 and from 2002 to 2006 it was for 4yo+ 10/10 were returned at 5/1 or under [ 3 favs ] 10/10 were rated 102+ 9/10 had WON that season with 8 successful LTO 7/7 were 7f winners [ when distance was shortened from 8f ] 8/10 had won/been placed in Listed/Group company 3yo's have won 2 from the 5 races they contested 4yo's have won 2/10 5/6yo's have won 6/10. UK raiders have won 4 times from 14 runners and when those that started at 5/1 or under it is 4 wins and 3 seconds from 11 runners AL QASI [5yo] - from the P CHAPPLE-HYAM yard [ 1 win from 6 runners at the course ] and is rated 114 . Has won 5 times in it's career but all were at 6f while the yeilding ground will suit. Won at Group 3 level but ran twice this season without winning. JUMBUKAJIMA [5yo] - has won one 7f race from 5 career wins and is rated 114 . Its Group 3 win was over C/D and yeilding ground holds no problems. Also has a Listed win to it's name and has won this season although not LTO. GEORGEBERNARDSHAW [3yo] - from the O'BRIEN yard and is rated 110 . Has won one 7f race from 2 career wins . Has won twice this season but not LTO. Won over C/D in a Listed race and , like the other 2 will appreciate the yielding ground. GARNICA [5yo] - another UK raider from the NICHOLL'S stable [ 5 wins from 26 on the course] Has won 4 Grp 3's and Won LTO . Rated 112 and has won 4 times over 7f from 8 career wins and is one who like some more rain as the Heavier the better. SUMMARY - A bit of a puzzle with the 3yo's rejoning the fray last season after a 5 year gap. I'm one of those who believes that 7f is one of those ditance's that brings out the best in certain horses and we should take the first step here when considering the choice's . So with that in mind i'm discounting the probable Fav in AL QASI who has NO 7f wins to it's tally , narrowly btn in one of the 2 it has ran in , but not good enough for me here. JUMBUKAJIMA gave us a good run for our money when 2nd LTO and it's Grp 3 win here when beating MAJOR CADEAUX was impressive but that was on Heavy going and this one would appear , imo , to prefer longer on yielding ground going by it's previous form and breeding [ sire has a winning ave of 9.6f ] GEORGEBERNARDSHAW is one of only 3yo's in the field and you just cannot discount anything from that stable in Group races at the present. After winning it's Maiden it went on to take a Listed race over C/D earlier in the season by 7l on Heavy going. Was then highly tried in the French Guineas [Grp 1] where it finished 10th on Good ground and then contested the JERSEY Stakes at Ascot where it ran well down the field on G/F ground and from stall 2 [ first 3 were drawn 12, 11, 6 from 16. GARNICA has it's 3rd run for the NICHOLS yard here after winning 3 times at Group 3 grade for it's previous yard . Won LTO for the new stable , again in a French Grp 3 , and is a 4 time winner over the distance. 7 of it's 8 career victories have been ground descibed as V SOFT to HEAVY so theres a chance that the going might just be a little on the less than preferable shall we say . I think that GEORGEBERNARDSHAW taking a step back in grade on ground that will suit and over a distance that it has won over and it's breeding would indicate will suit it. Any more rain would bring GARNICA into the frame but the weather forecast doesn't give that much hope so it's another win for BALLYDOYLE :hope:hope:hope

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GEORGEBERNARDSHAW 3rd to JUMBUKAJIMA 63 BETS 21 WINS 630 pts staked 860.83pts returned [ not inc returned stakes ] to a 10pt level stake. One of the quietest weeks of the year for Listed/Group races with at least 6 season form . Saturday looks the best bet.